What services should operate during the 3rd lockdown (January/February 2021)?

[miami]

Moderator note: Split from

50-60% of services to be cut due to impact of covid

Telegraph is reporting that government has ordered up to 60% of rail services to be cut. Half of rail services set to be slashed Ministers are finalising a new emergency timetable aimed at reducing the number of 'ghost trains' following the latest lockdown Rail services will be cut by up to...

www.railforums.co.uk

guaranteeing operators made a profit

Does that apply for all businesses?

Thinking of the long distance WCML

I can't think of any reason for Avanti to run any more than

1tph London-Watford-Milton-Rugby-Stafford-Stoke-Macc-Stockport-Manchester
1tph London-Watford-Milton-Rugby-Cov-Intl-NewStreet
1tph London-Rugby-Stafford-Warrington-AllStops-to-Glasgow
1tph London-Milton-Rugby-Crewe-Runcorn-Liverpool

Possibly even drop it to 1tp2h for Liverpool and Glasgow

For LM to run
1tph London-Crewe as normal with all stops in TV
1pth London-Birm semi-fast with places like Hemel, Leighton Buzzard, Northampton
1tph all stops London-Milton Keynes
1pth Birmingham-Liverpool via Stoke

For ATW to run the Crewe-Holyhead services and Shrewsbury-International

For TP to run Manchester-Edinburgh via Penrith

For XC to drop the Manchester branch to 1tph

Usual local services to places like Blackpool and Barrow on a 1tph maximum.

I think that this lockdown will lead to the govt reviewing all capital investment.Old traffic flows will become history,with the increase in "homeworking" and therefore less commuters etc travelling.Interesting times.

Details of long term effect won't be evident until at least 6 months after the ceasation of all restrictions - so likely this time next year.

 

[Peter0124]

If Avanti do have 1tp2h from London to Liverpool and Glasgow they should run in the same path (xx:07)

odd hours xx:07 - Liverpool (07:07, 09:07, 11:07, 13:07, 15:07, 17:07, 19:07, 21:07)
even hours xx:07 - Glasgow (05:31, 08:07, 10:07, 12:07, 14:07, 16:07, 18:07, with 20:07 terminating at Preston?)

for example

But as it is only being cut by half, I reckon having both hourly alongside Birmingham and Manchester is the best way to go, and scrapping extensions to Chester/Holyhead/Shrewsbury/Edinburgh/Blackpool. Just like March and April last year.

 

[Mitchell Hurd]

Personally, CrossCountry services should stay as they are. If I'm right (from looking at JourneyCheck), the reliability of services has dramatically improved.

I'll be honest, there's room for some passengers to be delayed too (45-60 minutes in some cases) between some connections too given the timetable compared to the more frequent one.

 

[lkpridgeon]

Any station that receives at least an hourly now should retain at least an hourly service during core hours (I'd define core hours as between 06:00 and 22:00) any service that runs less than that* should retain the service they have. All trains would need to at least go to a point where the passenger can interchange to another service to get to their final destination should they need to travel further afield.

Where a service is not offered alternative transportation needs to be arranged without having to argue with control. An example I've had is over the lack of a bus service that they believe my village has. It was a twice daily shuttle bus to the gin distillery put on for workers to commute and occasional day trippers. As someone with a key metre that doesn't drive no train could mean no electric or heating

* Only if the station receives at least 1 train per day

 

[HST43257]

XC have probably dropped services by 40%, which should be enough.

LNER can have 1tph to Edinburgh and 1tph to Leeds (knocking out York stopper stops every 2 hours). That must drop at least 60%, assuming SR can cover most stuff north of Edinburgh.

TPE will have dropped to about 65% I reckon. 1tp2h needed on Cleethorpes and Hull runs. Manchester to Glasgow can be axed as long as Manchester to Edinburgh stays 1tp2h. York to Scarborough can be 1tp2h as well.

EMR can be 1tph London to Nottingham and 1tph London to Sheffield, with Corby being a 2tph shuttle from Kettering. Norwich to Liverpool, Leicester to Lincoln, Matlock to Newark C and Newark NG to Grimsby can all be 1tp2h. At most a 50% service there.

Avanti can basically have every service halved:
1tph London to Birmingham
1tp2h London to Edinburgh via Birmingham
1tph London to Manchester via Stoke
1tp2h London to Manchester via Crewe
1tp2h London to Liverpool
1tp2h London to Glasgow via Trent Valley

GWR is quite complicated, but many services can be cut.
London to Penzance should be 1tph, with extra stops and limited other services on the majority of its route. Weymouth to Westbury can be a 1tp4h single train shuttle - nice and reliable (hopefully). All Thames valley and Cornwall branch lines operating with 1 train going up and down (normal service except half service on Falmouth branch). Paignton to Exmouth can have a half service (1tph). Barnstaple either has to be 1tph or 1tp3h, I can’t decide. Reading to Basingstoke and Reading to Redhill can both be 1tph. The first of those would be a single train shuttle with short turnarounds to keep it as cheap as possible. Didcot to Banbury would be 1tp2h (single train shuttle again). London to Bristol would be halved to 1tph, as would the South Wales service, with only the hourly Swansea remaining. London to Worcester/Malvern/Hereford can stay at 1tph, but the other GWR to Oxford can be cut. Swindon to Gloucester can be a 1tp2h single train shuttle, though different paths needed. Reading to Bedwyn (all stations 5 car IET) would be 1tph probably. Services to Southampton & Portsmouth can be temporarily axed, with a 1tph Salisbury to Gloucester (1tp2h through to Worcester) service running. Bristol to Severn Beach would be hourly, with Avonmouth terminators cut.

For Chiltern, they need 1tph to Birmingham, 1tph to Oxford, 2tph to Aylesbury VP via Amersham and 1tph to High Wycombe calling pretty much everywhere. Leamington Spa to Stratford can be a single train shuttle, as can Aylesbury to Princes Risborough.

Great Northern need 2tph Moorgate to Welwyn, 2tph Moorgate to Stevenage (via Hertford) and 2tph London to Kings Lynn/Ely, with extra stops at Letchworth, Baldock and Royston.

On Thameslink, the 2tph Brighton to Cambridge would call at a lot more stations covering for other lost services. 2tph would run from PBO to Horsham, completely normal. The same would be the case for the Sutton loop, Bedford to Gatwick, Luton to Rainham and Blackfriars to Sevenoaks.

Scotrail definitely couldn’t have a 50% reduction. Normal service on the Wick, Kyle, Oban and Mallaig lines. 2tph Glasgow to Ayr, 1tph, Glasgow to Gourock and another to Wemmys Bay. 2tph Glasgow to Kilmarnock (all stations), with 1tp2h going through to Carlisle. 1tp4h (single train) Kilmarnock to Stranraer, with a 1tph shuttle (single train with quick turnarounds) between Ayr and Girvan. 1tph Glasgow to Largs and another to Ardrossan Harbour as normal, unless you split a 1tph service from Glasgow at Ardrossan South Beach or you get rid of the Harbour service altogether. Normal 2tph service on Paisley canal. Large cuts to Cathcart Circle maybe: 2tph Glasgow to Neilston via Mount Florida, plus 2tph Glasgow to Newton via Langside. Dalmuir to Larkhall and Cumbernauld can both be 1tph, operating as a 2tph service from Dalmuir to Hamilton via Yoker and GLC. Also 1tph Glasgow to Lanark all day. Balloch, Helensburgh and Milngavie should all have 2tph, but no idea which routes, given there’d be 2tph or 4tph towards Airdrie and 2tph towards Whifflet via Ballieston. Shotts express can be axed if the hourly stopper remains. Falkirk High can get 2tph in both directions. I’d have 1tp2h between Glasgow and Inverness, Glasgow and Aberdeen, Edinburgh and Aberdeen plus also Aberdeen and Inverness. Edinburgh to Inverness would be axed - people can change at Perth. Speaking of which, I’d have 1tp2h for Edinburgh to Perth and Edinburgh to Arbroath, though these would all be at least 5 coaches if possible. Once again, there’d be 1tp2h for Montrose to Inverurie. There’d be a simple 1tph round the fife circle, 1tph to Tweedbank and 1tph to North Berwick. No need for a Dunbar service, XC can cover that.



It’s worth mentioning that I’d look to not reinstate too many services lost (in my idea), as long as there’s a lot of capacity on the reduced service. That seems a more efficient way to help punctuality and increase rail freight.

 

[MatthewRead]

I take it open access operation is suspended once again I have a horrible feeling that this is it Grand Central and First Hull trains are finished!

 

[lkpridgeon]

EMR can be 1tph London to Nottingham and 1tph London to Sheffield, with Corby being a 2tph shuttle from Kettering. Norwich to Liverpool, Leicester to Lincoln and Matlock to Newark can all be 1tp2h. At most a 50% service there.

Why would you cut the Lincoln to Newark down to 1tp2h, surely Hykeham and Collingham still have reasonable demand as there's manufacturing in both Lincoln and Hykeham that still require people to commute.

I can understand cutting the Lincoln to Doncaster service though as there's the northern service to Sheffield that serves Saxilby and Gainsborough

 

[HST43257]

Why would you cut the Lincoln to Newark down to 1tp2h, surely Hykeham and Collingham still have reasonable demand as there's manufacturing in both Lincoln and Hykeham that requires people to commute.

I forgot to mention the Newark NG to Grimsby service every 2 hours - I’ll add that on now, That creates a 1tph Hykeham to Lincoln and vice versa service.

 

[Mitchell Hurd]

XC have probably dropped services by 40%, which should be enough.

LNER can have 1tph to Edinburgh and 1tph to Leeds (knocking out York stopper stops every 2 hours). That must drop at least 60%, assuming SR can cover most stuff north of Edinburgh.

TPE will have dropped to about 65% I reckon. 1tp2h needed on Cleethorpes and Hull runs. Manchester to Glasgow can be axed as long as Manchester to Edinburgh stays 1tp2h. York to Scarborough can be 1tp2h as well.

EMR can be 1tph London to Nottingham and 1tph London to Sheffield, with Corby being a 2tph shuttle from Kettering. Norwich to Liverpool, Leicester to Lincoln, Matlock to Newark C and Newark NG to Grimsby can all be 1tp2h. At most a 50% service there.

Avanti can basically have every service halved:
1tph London to Birmingham
1tp2h London to Edinburgh via Birmingham
1tph London to Manchester via Stoke
1tp2h London to Manchester via Crewe
1tp2h London to Liverpool
1tp2h London to Glasgow via Trent Valley

GWR is quite complicated, but many services can be cut.
London to Penzance should be 1tph, with extra stops and limited other services on the majority of its route. Weymouth to Westbury can be a 1tp4h single train shuttle - nice and reliable (hopefully). All Thames valley and Cornwall branch lines operating with 1 train going up and down (normal service except half service on Falmouth branch). Paignton to Exmouth can have a half service (1tph). Barnstaple either has to be 1tph or 1tp3h, I can’t decide. Reading to Basingstoke and Reading to Redhill can both be 1tph. The first of those would be a single train shuttle with short turnarounds to keep it as cheap as possible. Didcot to Banbury would be 1tp2h (single train shuttle again). London to Bristol would be halved to 1tph, as would the South Wales service, with only the hourly Swansea remaining. London to Worcester/Malvern/Hereford can stay at 1tph, but the other GWR to Oxford can be cut. Swindon to Gloucester can be a 1tp2h single train shuttle, though different paths needed. Reading to Bedwyn (all stations 5 car IET) would be 1tph probably. Services to Southampton & Portsmouth can be temporarily axed, with a 1tph Salisbury to Gloucester (1tp2h through to Worcester) service running. Bristol to Severn Beach would be hourly, with Avonmouth terminators cut.

For Chiltern, they need 1tph to Birmingham, 1tph to Oxford, 2tph to Aylesbury VP via Amersham and 1tph to High Wycombe calling pretty much everywhere. Leamington Spa to Stratford can be a single train shuttle, as can Aylesbury to Princes Risborough.

Great Northern need 2tph Moorgate to Welwyn, 2tph Moorgate to Stevenage (via Hertford) and 2tph London to Kings Lynn/Ely, with extra stops at Letchworth, Baldock and Royston.

On Thameslink, the 2tph Brighton to Cambridge would call at a lot more stations covering for other lost services. 2tph would run from PBO to Horsham, completely normal. The same would be the case for the Sutton loop, Bedford to Gatwick, Luton to Rainham and Blackfriars to Sevenoaks.

Scotrail definitely couldn’t have a 50% reduction. Normal service on the Wick, Kyle, Oban and Mallaig lines. 2tph Glasgow to Ayr, 1tph, Glasgow to Gourock and another to Wemmys Bay. 2tph Glasgow to Kilmarnock (all stations), with 1tp2h going through to Carlisle. 1tp4h (single train) Kilmarnock to Stranraer, with a 1tph shuttle (single train with quick turnarounds) between Ayr and Girvan. 1tph Glasgow to Largs and another to Ardrossan Harbour as normal, unless you split a 1tph service from Glasgow at Ardrossan South Beach or you get rid of the Harbour service altogether. Normal 2tph service on Paisley canal. Large cuts to Cathcart Circle maybe: 2tph Glasgow to Neilston via Mount Florida, plus 2tph Glasgow to Newton via Langside. Dalmuir to Larkhall and Cumbernauld can both be 1tph, operating as a 2tph service from Dalmuir to Hamilton via Yoker and GLC. Also 1tph Glasgow to Lanark all day. Balloch, Helensburgh and Milngavie should all have 2tph, but no idea which routes, given there’d be 2tph or 4tph towards Airdrie and 2tph towards Whifflet via Ballieston. Shotts express can be axed if the hourly stopper remains. Falkirk High can get 2tph in both directions. I’d have 1tp2h between Glasgow and Inverness, Glasgow and Aberdeen, Edinburgh and Aberdeen plus also Aberdeen and Inverness. Edinburgh to Inverness would be axed - people can change at Perth. Speaking of which, I’d have 1tp2h for Edinburgh to Perth and Edinburgh to Arbroath, though these would all be at least 5 coaches if possible. Once again, there’d be 1tp2h for Montrose to Inverurie. There’d be a simple 1tph round the fife circle, 1tph to Tweedbank and 1tph to North Berwick. No need for a Dunbar service, XC can cover that.

I admire your ideas - I was thinking the same with the IET services that start and terminate at Oxford. I'm guessing you mean just keep the North Cotswolds routes as the fast services to and from Oxford and Paddington?

Assuming yes, I'd run 9-cars on every service on that route where possible so that there's still enough seats for social distancing. There's the 2tph Chiltern Railways services to help out too. It would possibly reduce the chance of a 5-car turning up on a Bristol, South Wales or even Plymouth / Penzance.

 

[HST43257]

I admire your ideas - I was thinking the same with the IET services that start and terminate at Oxford. I'm guessing you mean just keep the North Cotswolds routes as the fast services to and from Oxford and Paddington?

Thanks a lot. Yes I’m suggesting London to Worcester/Malvern/Hereford as the 1tph GWR going via Oxford, with the other one being cut.

Assuming yes, I'd run 9-cars on every service on that route where possible so that there's still enough seats for social distancing. There's the 2tph Chiltern Railways services to help out too. It would possibly reduce the chance of a 5-car turning up on a Bristol, South Wales or even Plymouth / Penzance.

Yes 9 or 10 cars on as many GWR services as possible. I’d suggest 8 cars on Turbo services for Chiltern if possible. Even if it’s only for Birmingham services, it’d still help a lot.

 

[Bletchleyite]

I think as a general point, basic hourly services but at maximum length are the way to go.

 

[Kite159]

For Chiltern, they need 1tph to Birmingham, 1tph to Oxford, 2tph to Aylesbury VP via Amersham and 1tph to High Wycombe calling pretty much everywhere. Leamington Spa to Stratford can be a single train shuttle, as can Aylesbury to Princes Risborough.

You could get away with an hourly service to Aylesbury VP using 4/5 coach formations, at least off-peak. At peak it can get extra services.

As for GWR keep the Portsmouth services, and reduce the calls at Dean/Mottisfont to 1tp3h with another 158 doing Romsey - Romsey rounders. Like in a previous timetable

 

[HamworthyGoods]

Services to Southampton & Portsmouth can be temporarily axed

Cutting off the route from its train crew depot and fuelling facility at Fratton doesn’t sound ideal operationally.

 

[HST43257]

I think as a general point, basic hourly services but at maximum length are the way to go.

Depends on the route and individual situation I think.

I reckon single train shuttles would save cash, for example a 1tp4h single train shuttle service from Weymouth to Westbury. However, a route like Sheffield to Scarborough could have a 5/6 car hourly train, with all stops instead of semi-Express running, so other services could be incorporated into it, at little extra cost.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Depends on the route and individual situation I think.

I reckon single train shuttles would save cash, for example a 1tp4h single train shuttle service from Weymouth to Westbury. However, a route like Sheffield to Scarborough could have a 5/6 car hourly train, with all stops instead of semi-Express running, so other services could be incorporated into it, at little extra cost.

I have noted that WMT have split some services at Northampton, which I guess makes the service more resilient.

 

[HST43257]

I have noted that WMT have split some services at Northampton, which I guess makes the service more resilient.

I’m interested by WMT’s decision to send 1tph through from Wolverhampton to Walsall, yet the one half an hour later terminates at New Street and a different service to Walsall starts on a different platform a few minutes later. Same paths but no 2tph through service.

 

[4-SUB 4732]

Would be nice for the Thameslink Rainham to run via Blackheath, purely to allow a sensible quarter-hourly 10-car Cannon Street to Slade Green.

Half-hourly Barnehurst to Cannon Street / Dartford to Victoria via Bexleyheath.

Half-hourly Crayford to Cannon Street / Gravesend to Charing Cross via Sidcup.

Half-hourly Hayes to Cannon Street via Lewisham / Sevenoaks to Charing Cross via Lewisham.

Peak extras where required; 12-car where possible.

Quarter-hourly Bromley South to Victoria; half-hourly back from Orpington.

Easy that...

 

[NorthKent1989]

Would be nice for the Thameslink to run via Blackheath, purely to allow a sensible quarter-hourly 10-car Cannon Street to Slade Green.

Half-hourly Barnehurst to Cannon Street / Dartford to Victoria via Bexleyheath.

Half-hourly Crayford to Cannon Street / Gravesend to Charing Cross via Sidcup.

Half-hourly Hayes to Cannon Street via Lewisham / Sevenoaks to Charing Cross via Lewisham.

Peak extras where required; 12-car where possible.

Quarter-hourly Bromley South to Victoria; half-hourly back from Orpington.

Easy that...

Long term Thameslink Rainham would be sensible running via Blackheath, seeing as the Woolwich line is proposed to be losing Charing Cross trains anyway, no point having the Woolwich line (Lewisham to Medway) duplicate a Greenwich Line service to Cannon Street.

In the past when this service was re-routed via Blackheath because of engineering works it’s always ran decently, never calls at St. John’s or New Cross in my experience but probably not necessary, since St. John’s is quiet and any Docklands interchanges would be made further east at Woolwich Arsenal (soon to be Abbey Wood at some point)

 

[4-SUB 4732]

Long term Thameslink Rainham would be sensible running via Blackheath, seeing as the Woolwich line is proposed to be losing Charing Cross trains anyway, no point having the Woolwich line (Lewisham to Medway) duplicate a Greenwich Line service to Cannon Street.

In the past when this service was re-routed via Blackheath because of engineering works it’s always ran decently, never calls at St. John’s or New Cross in my experience but probably not necessary, since St. John’s is quiet and any Docklands interchanges would be made further east at Woolwich Arsenal (soon to be Abbey Wood at some point)

Off peak, there's no call I dare say moving forward for much more than a quarter-hourly 10-car 707 doing Slade Green to Cannon Street.

Therefore, might as well get the Thameslink to drop in via Blackheath. Then again, looking at the passenger numbers, future housing (etc.), off-peak I don't see reason for the Thameslink services to stop at Slade Green at all. More passengers use Erith and Belvedere!

 

[NorthKent1989]

Off peak, there's no call I dare say moving forward for much more than a quarter-hourly 10-car 707 doing Slade Green to Cannon Street.

Therefore, might as well get the Thameslink to drop in via Blackheath. Then again, looking at the passenger numbers, future housing (etc.), off-peak I don't see reason for the Thameslink services to stop at Slade Green at all. More passengers use Erith and Belvedere!

I reckon there will be some changes post CrossRail at least, I know there have been calls for re-routing Thameslink via Blackheath the response has been to review after CrossRail has opened.

Losing Thameslink won’t be popular with Greenwich line users

For lockdown services in South Eastern I would like this to happen

Woolwich Line:
- 2tph Kentish Town to Rainham
- 2tph Cannon Street to Slade Green via Greenwich
- 2tph Charing Cross to Gravesend
via Lewisham

Bexleyheath Line:
- 2tph Cannon Street to Barnehurst
- 2tph Victoria to Dartford

Sidcup Line:
- 2tph Cannon Street to Dartford
- 2tph Charing Cross to Gravesend, fast to Hither Green then all stations

Grove Park Line:
- 2tph Cannon Street to Orpington
- 2tph Charing Cross to Sevenoaks fast to Hither Green

Penge East Line:
- 2tph Victoria to Bromley South
- 2tph Victoria to Orpington, not calling at West Dulwich, Sydenham Hill and Kent House

SOUTHERN:
Sydenham Line
- 2tph London Bridge to Caterham/Tattenham Corner
In addition to the 8tph on the ELL

Gipsy Hill Line
- 2tph London Bridge to West Croydon via Crystal Palace
- 2tph London Bridge to Coulsdon Town via Norbury*
-2tph Victoria to Crystal Palace

Norbury Line
- 2tph Victoria to Epsom Downs
- 2tph Victoria to Tattenham Corner
Not calling at Battersea Park and Wandsworth Road
* London Bridge to Coulsdon Town

Mitcham Junction Line
- 2tph Victoria to Horsham
Not calling at Battersea Park and Wandsworth Road

 

[4-SUB 4732]

I reckon there will be some changes post CrossRail at least, I know there have been calls for re-routing Thameslink via Blackheath the response has been to review after CrossRail has opened.

Losing Thameslink won’t be popular with Greenwich line users

For lockdown services in South Eastern I would like this to happen

Woolwich Line:
- 2tph Kentish Town to Rainham
- 2tph Cannon Street to Slade Green via Greenwich
- 2tph Charing Cross to Gravesend
via Lewisham

Bexleyheath Line:
- 2tph Cannon Street to Barnehurst
- 2tph Victoria to Dartford

Sidcup Line:
- 2tph Cannon Street to Dartford
- 2tph Charing Cross to Gravesend, fast to Hither Green then all stations

Grove Park Line:
- 2tph Cannon Street to Orpington
- 2tph Charing Cross to Sevenoaks fast to Hither Green

Penge East Line:
- 2tph Victoria to Bromley South
- 2tph Victoria to Orpington, not calling at West Dulwich, Sydenham Hill and Kent House

SOUTHERN:
Sydenham Line
- 2tph London Bridge to Caterham/Tattenham Corner
In addition to the 8tph on the ELL

Gipsy Hill Line
- 2tph London Bridge to West Croydon via Crystal Palace
- 2tph London Bridge to Coulsdon Town via Norbury*
-2tph Victoria to Crystal Palace

Norbury Line
- 2tph Victoria to Epsom Downs
- 2tph Victoria to Tattenham Corner
Not calling at Battersea Park and Wandsworth Road
* London Bridge to Coulsdon Town

Mitcham Junction Line
- 2tph Victoria to Horsham
Not calling at Battersea Park and Wandsworth Road

Why should Bexleyheath lose its Charing Cross off-peak connection when its the main traffic flow?

Why should Sidcup lose its rounder service?

Why should West Dulwich, Sydenham Hill and Kent House lose frequency when the paths allow them to make all stops?