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Telegraph reporting 50-60% of services to be cut due to impact of covid

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Peter0124

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Avanti West Coast have confirmed they are reducing from Monday 18th. It is included in this article about national express.

So it's probably looking like we will be back to just 1tph on the London to Birmingham/Manchester/Liverpool/Glasgow routes only, like March/April of last year.

This article also says that in general for some TOCs:
"The exact scale of reduction is still being worked on, but the DfT says service levels may fall to as low as 40% of the normal timetable by some operators."
 
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Skimpot flyer

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The timings of Sunday services don't always align much (or at all) with the timings of weekday or Saturday services, so copying the Sunday service to other days would require a large-scale replanning of the timetable - unless every operator agreed to run their Sunday timetable all week long. It's much easier to remove services from the timetable and tweak what remains.

There are still very few freight services on a Sunday, so I'm sure the FOCs would have something to say about having barely anything reserved on the graph!

Some places also see their best service on a Sunday, and other places see exactly the same service all week. Clearly a week-round Sunday timetable won't necessarily be appropriate there.

Finally, Sunday services assume that units are in position following the end of the Saturday service, and deliver them in position for the start of the Monday service.

You would probably still need subtly different timetables each day just to ensure proper rotation of units on the longer circuits, and of course first trains on a Sunday will be much later than weekdays. In fact many cities don't have anything arriving from surrounding stations before 10am or so.

Sunday service frequency and patterns are nevertheless an informative baseline in the right circumstances.
Consideration would need to be given to the issue of ‘essential workers’ whose shifts start/finish early, or finish/start late at night. Especially hospital workers who don’t tend to work ‘Dolly Parton’ shifts
 

Bikeman78

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Ultimately, I think the railway industry as a whole will have to wait and see. Its a very difficult thing to predict, especially with the situation in the short term ever changing. I do think passenger usage reaching around 40% last summer briefly, is a small cause to be optimisitc, considering social distancing still being in place meaning offices were not operating at capacity and of course all the large summer, leisure events being cancelled, and some people still being scared to travel.

My personal view as the railway industry will have done extremely well if they manage to get passenger numbers to 80%. A more pesimistic view of mine is that it will only get to 60% max, and even that will take a year or two after the pandemic is over.

But ultimately, we will have to wait and see, the only advantage railways do have is climate agenda, as electric cars are still not widespread yet.
Correct me if I'm wrong but 50% of February 2019 passenger numbers takes us back to the early 2000s. Hardly a disaster. If that means some half hourly routes go back to hourly for a few years, so be it.
 

Scotrail314209

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Scotrail are also cutting a few trains between Ayr/Girvan and Stranraer. Some trains are also cut to start/terminate at Ayr.

Trains starting from Ayr vice Girvan or Stranraer:

0653 Girvan to Kilmarnock
1903 Stranraer to Kilmarnock

Trains terminating at Ayr instead of Girvan or Stranraer
1809 Glasgow Central to Stranraer
2108 Kilmarnock to Stranraer

Services no longer running
0612 Ayr to Girvan
2203 Girvan to Ayr
 

Jamesrob637

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Consideration would need to be given to the issue of ‘essential workers’ whose shifts start/finish early, or finish/start late at night. Especially hospital workers who don’t tend to work ‘Dolly Parton’ shifts

It'll be enough to drive them crazy and insane
 

MissPWay

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Consideration would need to be given to the issue of ‘essential workers’ whose shifts start/finish early, or finish/start late at night. Especially hospital workers who don’t tend to work ‘Dolly Parton’ shifts
True, but outside of London the network mainly seems to be carting round a pleasant mixture of fresh air, drunks, maskless chavs (with exemptions “you cant ask me about innit”) and county lines drug mules currently.

If you work those sort of shifts and don’t live in the capital you probably have a car out of necessity.
 

philjo

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On Great Northern some of the very early and late night trains are used by a lot of key workers doing shifts in London hospitals or the fire service etc. So many go in 5:30/6am or are returning home just after midnight depending which shift they are on. GTR do recognise that so do consult via the local rail user group for the key worker service provision. Also still have children of key workers needing the stopping trains to go to school at the moment.
 

infobleep

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The concept of Sunday plus, Saturday plus / minus, weekday minus is train planning language that has been picked up by the DfT and then by politicians. At least it shows they are listening!



Exactly. And that’s the difficult part.
Thinking out loud. Would it be possible to use Saturday plus but with different stock allocations on services compared to a Saturday?
 

Jamiescott1

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Chiltern have a new timetable running Monday to Thursday next week (no news on Friday or weekend timetable).
I only checked the services I regularly take but I can't see any difference from this weeks timetable
 

infobleep

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Many people, leisure and commuters alike, enjoy travelling by train, find it more relaxing than driving and are probably only avoiding them at the moment out of either fear of catching the virus or dislike of social distancing/face masks. So using the car is easier. Once all this finishes, ie. vaccination, they'll soon be back onboard. The vast majority of employers won't want to continue WFH because of the logistical problems, so people will have to commute again.

Other factors such as parking costs in city centres and going for post-work drinks will see people move back to the train from their cars. The railway itself could make some little changes here and there to make it more attractive to return to the train.
What are the logistical problems of people spending them working from home? I appreciate a need to see people occasionally but beyond that was are the logistical problems?

SWR weekday timetables from 11 January are now online.
https://www.southwesternrailway.com/plan-my-journey/timetables
It's nice to see PDF timetables and for their to be a Farnham /Aldershot to Guildford one. In the past they have tend to just refer to Ascot to Guildford, even though no days most services from Guildford go to Farnham and not Ascot.

However the title now missed out Ascot, which is one of the terminuses.

Actually Ascot to Aldershot is listed separately but it links to the same timetable. So all is good for once.

Following changes to the latest government advice and additional travel restrictions we are currently running an amended timetable. This helps those who need to travel to plan ahead and travel safely and with confidence.

To find the details of the train services operating on your route, please use our online journey planner to check your journey before travelling.

I tried looking up a journey for next Monday as an example, using their online journey planner, so I could in theory check a journey before travelling. Alas it only gave me the option of checking for today.
 
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Bald Rick

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Thinking out loud. Would it be possible to use Saturday plus but with different stock allocations on services compared to a Saturday?

For many operators, Saturday plus is a normal timetable.

This has to be done on an operator specific basis.
 

infobleep

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For many operators, Saturday plus is a normal timetable.

This has to be done on an operator specific basis.
I hope it would be done on the basis of number of passengers travelling, the needs of key works at early or late times and staff avilable to run the services.
 

21C101

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SWR weekday timetables from 11 January are now online.
https://www.southwesternrailway.com/plan-my-journey/timetables
That is basically the 2019 strike day timetable.

Running one every two hours shuttle from Salisbury to Exeter is OTT. No reason why it cant be a two hourly through service rather than making everyone wait half an hour in the cold at Salisbury.

Even Fiennes Western Region merry band of nihilists didn't do that at the height of Beechings "duplicate route" closure mania.
 

_toommm_

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Can’t wait to find out I can’t get to work next week or the week after when they decide to cut Leeds to Manchester to 1tph or whatever it was in March.
 

infobleep

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That is basically the 2019 strike day timetable.

Running one every two hours shuttle from Salisbury to Exeter is OTT. No reason why it cant be a two hourly through service rather than making everyone wait half an hour in the cold at Salisbury.

Even Fiennes Western Region merry band of nihilists didn't do that at the height of Beechings "duplicate route" closure mania.
Well Guildford to Farnham is every half hour so it certainly isn't the strike timetable.
 

Kite159

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That is basically the 2019 strike day timetable.

Running one every two hours shuttle from Salisbury to Exeter is OTT. No reason why it cant be a two hourly through service rather than making everyone wait half an hour in the cold at Salisbury.

Even Fiennes Western Region merry band of nihilists didn't do that at the height of Beechings "duplicate route" closure mania.

The 12:20 Waterloo - Salisbury looks odd as its the only one to skip the villages at a glance.

I guess it's due to staff hours being worked to the limit.
 

bramling

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For many operators, Saturday plus is a normal timetable.
Thinking out loud. Would it be possible to use Saturday plus but with different stock allocations on services compared to a Saturday?

Anything’s possible.

However there are certain golden rules which have to be followed. Most important of all is that the stock “balances” each day. This is a term one hears very commonly in both planning and control, and in essence means that the same number of each unit type start and finish at each stabling location every day. It isn’t 100% set in stone, but if you don’t balance one day then some kind of intervention will be necessary the next day to get back to the original balance, otherwise before long quite simply a stabling point is going to have the wrong number of trains needed to put out in the morning, either too few or too many - and if one place has too many then somewhere else will be short.

Beyond that some consideration has to be given to cycling units between stabling locations. No point having a unit which is stuck for days on end on a diagram which starts and finishes in a minor siding, for example.

Also remember that the peak workings are quite a good way of cycling units around. On GN for example all the 365s are normally found at Hornsey during the midday and (apart from spare units) spend the night at the country end. If you didn’t have this then you’d never rotate the spare units round, and the working units would never see the depot.

These are the main issues, though there’s plenty more considerations depending on the railway concerned. Obviously there’s all the usual things also about making sure units match crews who sign that particular traction, don’t go on diagrams where there’s restrictions (eg into a platform where there’s signal sighting issues for that unit type) etc etc etc.

It’s a black art, and the planners must have had it up to here since last March with all the changes they’ve had to plan.
 

infobleep

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Anything’s possible.

However there are certain golden rules which have to be followed. Most important of all is that the stock “balances” each day. This is a term one hears very commonly in both planning and control, and in essence means that the same number of each unit type start and finish at each stabling location every day. It isn’t 100% set in stone, but if you don’t balance one day then some kind of intervention will be necessary the next day to get back to the original balance, otherwise before long quite simply a stabling point is going to have the wrong number of trains needed to put out in the morning, either too few or too many - and if one place has too many then somewhere else will be short.

Beyond that some consideration has to be given to cycling units between stabling locations. No point having a unit which is stuck for days on end on a diagram which starts and finishes in a minor siding, for example.

Also remember that the peak workings are quite a good way of cycling units around. On GN for example all the 365s are normally found at Hornsey during the midday and (apart from spare units) spend the night at the country end. If you didn’t have this then you’d never rotate the spare units round, and the working units would never see the depot.

These are the main issues, though there’s plenty more considerations depending on the railway concerned. Obviously there’s all the usual things also about making sure units match crews who sign that particular traction, don’t go on diagrams where there’s restrictions (eg into a platform where there’s signal sighting issues for that unit type) etc etc etc.

It’s a black art, and the planners must have had it up to here since last March with all the changes they’ve had to plan.
Very interesting. All I'd like to see, as far as is posisble, is for all franchised to implement the changes fairly across the board. So you don't get one franchise doing more cuts than another, if both franchises have a similar number of passengers using their services.
 

bramling

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Very interesting. All I'd like to see, as far as is posisble, is for all franchised to implement the changes fairly across the board. So you don't get one franchise doing more cuts than another, if both franchises have a similar number of passengers using their services.

I suspect in reality a lot will be driven by crew availability. If I were a TOC I’d be tempted to persevere with whatever they’re already planning to run, but pick specific diagrams which can be pulled seamlessly if crew availability falls. I would suspect many of the timetables currently running have been designed so make this more readily feasible than normal.

There needs to be some reasonable industrial relations for that to work seamlessly however, as getting the rolling stock diagram cancellation to match the uncovered crew duty doesn’t always come readily. If you don’t have a decent IR setup then you can end up with trains which have no drivers and drivers who have no train, and that quickly degenerated into chaos as things will then spiral (for example driver and train arrive at crew relief point, no relief driver, original driver now has to take train to depot and is late for next pick-up, the driver on that one then has to go to depot and suddenly the whole pack of cards has started to tumble).
 

scrapy

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Northern have advised the unions that they are to drop to around 65% of normal services from next week with timetables to be released on Friday. They have enough staff to forfil the current timetable even with shielding, current isolation and sickness levels, however this is at the request of the DFT.

Almost all training will continue.
Just to advise that the service reductions will commence from the 18th. Still about 65% of services so a similar timetable to that over summer last year but not as low as it was end March/April last year.
 

306024

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There is no doubt planning fatigue is a factor. Many planners, by their nature, are cautious individuals for whom accuracy is their watchword. Meticulous attention to detail was the phrase a former boss used to use.

Now they are being asked to constantly re-invent plans at the drop of a hat, where speed as well as accuracy are demanded. Some cope better mentally than others with that concept.

The aftermath of the Hatfield derailment was the worst ever time for planners with speed restrictions spreading all over the network such that your running times were useless. Replanning timetables then was total guesswork but you knew your staff base. This time it is staff availability that is a constantly changing factor.
 
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Jamesrob637

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Just to advise that the service reductions will commence from the 18th. Still about 65% of services so a similar timetable to that over summer last year but not as low as it was end March/April last year.

Is stuff like the peak extras being cut? For example the second Buxton runs only in the peaks, as does the Manchester Airport to Liverpool semi-fast. There is no peak to (s)peak of now. There never really has been since March but certainly not now.
 

The Ham

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Anything’s possible.

However there are certain golden rules which have to be followed. Most important of all is that the stock “balances” each day. This is a term one hears very commonly in both planning and control, and in essence means that the same number of each unit type start and finish at each stabling location every day. It isn’t 100% set in stone, but if you don’t balance one day then some kind of intervention will be necessary the next day to get back to the original balance, otherwise before long quite simply a stabling point is going to have the wrong number of trains needed to put out in the morning, either too few or too many - and if one place has too many then somewhere else will be short.
Beyond that some consideration has to be given to cycling units between stabling locations. No point having a unit which is stuck for days on end on a diagram which starts and finishes in a minor siding, for example.

Also remember that the peak workings are quite a good way of cycling units around. On GN for example all the 365s are normally found at Hornsey during the midday and (apart from spare units) spend the night at the country end. If you didn’t have this then you’d never rotate the spare units round, and the working units would never see the depot.

These are the main issues, though there’s plenty more considerations depending on the railway concerned. Obviously there’s all the usual things also about making sure units match crews who sign that particular traction, don’t go on diagrams where there’s restrictions (eg into a platform where there’s signal sighting issues for that unit type) etc etc etc.

It’s a black art, and the planners must have had it up to here since last March with all the changes they’ve had to plan.

I thought that someone said that we could fix anything with smart timetabling!?!?

Oh right, they did but they weren't anything to do with planning timetables.

I certainly wouldn't want to try and do that job currently and hats off to those who are doing it (and I think that in normal circumstances and this is a whole other level of appreciation).
 

infobleep

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Yep, right up to here.
If one enjoys their job and this kind of problem, hopefully they are enjoying the challenge. I guess that might depend on the working environment around them, for example managers.

I'd like to think I'd enjoy it but maybe that is wishful thinking.
 

306024

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If one enjoys their job and this kind of problem, hopefully they are enjoying the challenge. I guess that might depend on the working environment around them, for example managers.

I'd like to think I'd enjoy it but maybe that is wishful thinking.

Most enjoy a challenge, but a challenge that appears never ending takes its toll in any profession.

it’s not like this is all you have to do either, replanning for engineering possessions, bank holidays etc still has to be done too. Replanning an engineering block you have already done once because the base plan has changed is particularly soul destroying.
 
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Watershed

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If one enjoys their job and this kind of problem, hopefully they are enjoying the challenge. I guess that might depend on the working environment around them, for example managers.

I'd like to think I'd enjoy it but maybe that is wishful thinking.
It certainly has the potential to be an engaging problem, and absolutely the work environment is crucial to ensuring you enjoy any job.

This is certainly one of those events that will be the stuff of legends in the future. People will wonder how on earth we ever managed with a third or half of normal services!
 
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