22nd February - Roadmap out of the pandemic, lifting of restrictions.

[Philip]

A lockdown cannot have an impact in three days - so the peak was before it could have had any effect.

How do you explain the correlation with Sweden? or the fact that a Stanford University study has concluded that lockdowns have little or no impact?

Sweden is a completely different country with different behaviours of people; no where near as crammed in as UK population, so the comparison isn't really relevant.

 

[Class 33]

Tonight's press conference will feature Whitty and Vallance. Oh god! Don't know if I could stand hearing what they'll both be saying, in particular Vallance after what he said today about social distancing and face mask wearing measures needed beyond 2021.

But according to what has been mentioned, these measures will be gone by around 21st June anyway. Let's hope so!

 

[Baxenden Bank]

So he starts by saying he isn't going to be guided by dates but by data, but then goes and gives dates anyway. Seems somewhat counter productive to me.
I can understand the need for some kind of goal, both for people's sanity but also as a point at which people can question to government on "you said by now we could do X". But giving exact dates seems a bit silly considering how quickly so much of this changes, and how many times over the last year the government have had to backtrack on dates already announced.

However, in general the dates announced, whilst potentially a little too far out for some of the smaller things, seem somewhat sensible to me. Especially if we do want this to be a irrepressible removal of restrictions (otherwise we'd just end up having to pull the breaks right away if we start too quickly). Better to plan to be cautious and if things continue to go well (especially around vaccinations etc) then there's the potential to pull forward some of the dates.

Though some of the specifics for each date seem a bit odd, especially if you compare with some of the other things allowed - take after May 17th, I can go to a football stadium but not meet in a group of 3 people in a pub where those 3 people come from different households? Doesn't really make sense!

You are forgetting the lockdown.

The release from lockdown response is really about the economy, not individual freedoms. Big business and big money talks with this government. You meeting a couple of mates down the pub (and me mine) is pretty low down the list. I would prefer to be able to meet people, perhaps some distance from home, perhaps requiring an overnight stay, than have shops and hairdressers re-open or be allowed to play or watch sports.

At various times during the current 'national emergency' I have wondered if there are any links between the more extreme SAGE lockdown supporters and the anti-alcohol lobby, and any links between them and the anti-smoking lobby. It's job having been mostly done regarding smoking, there was a clear shift to anti-alcohol campaigning.

 

[DB]

Sweden is a completely different country with different behaviours of people; no where near as crammed in as UK population, so the comparison isn't really relevant.

We've been through this one loads of times - the main cities, where the population mostly lives, are pretty similar to UK cities so the comparison is very relevant.

 

[YorkshireBear]

Having now read everything. Assuming the dates are met. I am now significantly happier for the lockdown and restrictions to continue for a little longer if by June that means we've got a good chance of it being over.

Ill try look at this positively as I expected restrictions to be lifted earlier so Im dissapointed but I did not expect to see all restrictions lifted until 2022 so that's a positive.

If the June date keeps being kicked down the road though or it looks like I might I think it will quickly become H bearable again!

 

[peters]

Though Stage 2 activities (such as overnight stays being permitted in your household) are somewhat at odds with "minimise travel".

If somebody can travel to a wedding or effectively go on holiday, why can't I go for a train ride?

Right now it doesn't make sense that a church could hold a Sunday service with 50 people attending but if 50 people attend a funeral, even if they are all local e.g. immediate family and work colleagues, then it's illegal.

Personally I think 'minimise' is subjective, it's not saying no train travel for non-essential reasons, it's saying make fewer journeys than you would normally make.

I noticed another strange one in stage 2. If I invite 2 adults to my house then that won't be allowed but I can invite 6 parents if they all bring a child with them and we say the children are having a party!

 

[35B]

That's the 'correlation = causation' argument. And in the case of the current lockdown at least, it didn't start to drop 'immediately after' - it actually started to drop before the lockdown could have had any effect.

A graph of deaths in Sweden compared to the UK was posted on here a week or two ago, normalised for population, and showed a pretty much identical trajectory for the whole of the past year. Also, comparing the Worldometers stats for European countries with the severity fo measures shows absolutely no correlation (the Stanford University study also looked at this), and a similar lack of correlation can be seen in the USA when comparing states in the same climate zone.

There is bound to be a correlation in this country because the lockdowns were imposed when the peak was being reached - and the argument that without the lockdown it would have kept going upwards doesn't really hold water.

"Correlation = causation" being the basis for the argument that the current decline in cases is to do with vaccinations, along with a natural variability that just so happens to see a decline at just the same time as the seasonality you argue as a prime cause of respiratory disease spread is at it's most significant.

A lockdown cannot have an impact in three days - so the peak was before it could have had any effect.

How do you explain the correlation with Sweden? or the fact that a Stanford University study has concluded that lockdowns have little or no impact?

A comparison which is valid when it supports one argument, yet not when you compare that paradigm against another, more local one?

As for the Stanford study (I didn't notice a link - do you have one so I know I'm reading the same thing?), how does that sit within the literature as a whole?

There seems to be a lot of relying on cherry-picked examples to support a contention that no form of NPI can have had any impact on Covid; something that is profoundly counter-intuitive when applied to a virus which spreads based on human to human contact.

Anyway, reverting to the topic, my gut feeling is that this plan is reasonable, attainable, and strikes a reasonable balance between optimists and pessimists.

 

[Baxenden Bank]

Having now read everything. Assuming the dates are met. I am now significantly happier for the lockdown and restrictions to continue for a little longer if by June that means we've got a good chance of it being over.

Ill try look at this positively as I expected restrictions to be lifted earlier so Im dissapointed but I did not expect to see all restrictions lifted until 2022 so that's a positive.

If the June date keeps being kicked down the road though or it looks like I might I think it will quickly become H bearable again!

I don't wish to rain on your parade, but one of the 'experts' has already said August.

 

[YorkshireBear]

I don't wish to rain on your parade, but one of the 'experts' has already said August.

Don't worry I'm prepared. I just want to spend the next few hours with some hope. Tommorow I will return to being grumpy. Until then I'll keep my brolly up to your rain!

 

[DB]

"Correlation = causation" being the basis for the argument that the current decline in cases is to do with vaccinations, along with a natural variability that just so happens to see a decline at just the same time as the seasonality you argue as a prime cause of respiratory disease spread is at it's most significant.

A comparison which is valid when it supports one argument, yet not when you compare that paradigm against another, more local one?

As for the Stanford study (I didn't notice a link - do you have one so I know I'm reading the same thing?), how does that sit within the literature as a whole?

There seems to be a lot of relying on cherry-picked examples to support a contention that no form of NPI can have had any impact on Covid; something that is profoundly counter-intuitive when applied to a virus which spreads based on human to human contact.

Anyway, reverting to the topic, my gut feeling is that this plan is reasonable, attainable, and strikes a reasonable balance between optimists and pessimists.

The Stanford university study is the one led by John Ioannidis - I'm sure you can find it yourself, and it's been linked here several times.

I am not 'cherry picking' Sweden - it's just an obvious example. Look at the Worldometers stats and it is very obvious that there is no correlation between severity of restrictions and the outcome.

 

[initiation]

a contention that no form of NPI can have had any impact on Covid;

Where was that suggested? The basic premise of the Stanford Paper is that some restrictions have an impact but the very restrictive ones don't have a measurable one. Law of diminishing returns etc..

Literally no one is suggesting we have no NPIs.

 

[DB]

I don't wish to rain on your parade, but one of the 'experts' has already said August.

They will stretch it out as long as they can.

Does anyone believe a word which Johnson and his cohort says now? I certainly don't.

 

[LAX54]

It does for those who travel to experience different cultures, foods, lifestyles, etc. , let alone the weather aspect.

Agreed, as I say USA or Scotland ? overall there is no difference, but I suffer from a bad back, the dry warm, even hot air in California, Arizona has a big effect in helping ease it !

 

[Skimpot flyer]

They are, but that's complicated if one of the parties lives in a shared household.

This is all only a problem in the unlikely event of being stopped and questioned en route to the other’s household. In which case ‘I’m going shopping, Officer’ would be a believable answer

 

[yorkie]

Please read what I said properly or stop twisting it. I have said that there needs to be caution in the present circumstances because of the reasons I outlined above. This will be different when the vaccines have been modified, indeed it was reported over the weekend that a vaccine is being developed which should protect to some degree against all variants. We're not at this stage yet.


Yes any kind of travel increases the risk of mutations, but as I said above there needs to be a balance of risk management. The risk is much greater with overseas travel and that is why there needs to be more caution in this sector.

Mutations are going to happen regardless and are occurring in parallel in different parts of the world (co-evolution); they don't alter the fact that the vaccines offer an incredibly high level of efficacy against serious illness.

Once most people are vaccinated we really don't need to worry that much. A booster vaccine may be required from time to time and that can be done; the idea that stopping people going abroad would have any material effect is based on a misunderstanding of how viruses and vaccines work.

 

[Skimpot flyer]

Is there any point in the news briefing at 19:00 if everything is leaked out beforehand?

Have to say I chuckled when, in all seriousness, Starmer thanked the PM for giving him advance notice of what would be in the statement.
We all bloomin well knew since Saturday!!?

Indeed. Tonight is just to interfere with the soaps.

Isn’t passing soap from left hand to right hand considered essential travel?

 

[SouthEastBuses]

It does for those who travel to experience different cultures, foods, lifestyles, etc. , let alone the weather aspect.

Couldn't agree more.

The UK is a great country and has so many interesting places to visit. But the world isn't just the UK. There is a lot to see abroad too.

 

[SouthEastBuses]

Right now it doesn't make sense that a church could hold a Sunday service with 50 people attending but if 50 people attend a funeral, even if they are all local e.g. immediate family and work colleagues, then it's illegal.

Personally I think 'minimise' is subjective, it's not saying no train travel for non-essential reasons, it's saying make fewer journeys than you would normally make.

I noticed another strange one in stage 2. If I invite 2 adults to my house then that won't be allowed but I can invite 6 parents if they all bring a child with them and we say the children are having a party!

In fact my plan is, hoping that cases and deaths are very low by then, is to just ride 6 buses a day maximum to begin with once a week. And do the rest of each week by car. To begin with of course.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

Tonight's press conference will feature Whitty and Vallance. Oh god! Don't know if I could stand hearing what they'll both be saying, in particular Vallance after what he said today about social distancing and face mask wearing measures needed beyond 2021.

But according to what has been mentioned, these measures will be gone by around 21st June anyway. Let's hope so!

Well they've clearly brainwashed him already to get there way with this roadmap basically not using the data but extended dates between each stage. Many many Tories challenged him to review accelerating subsequent stages if the data is improving faster than expected but he doggedly refuses to NOT change the roadmap. So hes not following the data and there are NO metrics in the roadmap document to judge them against.

 

[johntea]

June also seems realistic in terms of the second vaccination dates for the most vunerable likely to be happening throughout April/May (I'm a NHS worker and my first was 22/01, second 09/04)

 

[Philip]

They will stretch it out as long as they can.

Does anyone believe a word which Johnson and his cohort says now? I certainly don't.

It'll go exactly as the roadmap has been set, subject to the four conditions going to plan as they currently are doing. Why on earth would they stretch things out as long as they can considering the impacts this has elsewhere?

I would've liked the stay at home order removed on 8th March but I guess an extra 3 weeks isn't huge. I think most of everything else is pretty positive, although indoor hospitality is over conservative waiting until 17th May, this looks like purely to fit in with the 5 week gap between steps, even though the first week of May would have sufficed.

 

[Ianno87]

Mutations are going to happen regardless and are occurring in parallel in different parts of the world (co-evolution); they don't alter the fact that the vaccines offer an incredibly high level of efficacy against serious illness.

Once most people are vaccinated we really don't need to worry that much. A booster vaccine may be required from time to time and that can be done; the idea that stopping people going abroad would have any material effect is based on a misunderstanding of how viruses and vaccines work.

Facebook friend of mine (who, in fairness has been shielding near constantly since last March) had previously been calling for lockdowns, calling the government "Murderers" for not locking down sooner etc. seems to have changed tune today and wanting hotels etc to reopen (they were vaccinated a few weeks back).

Perhaps the tide of opinion is turning on the matter.

 

[yorkie]

Sweden is a completely different country with different behaviours of people; no where near as crammed in as UK population, so the comparison isn't really relevant.

Not that old chestnut AGAIN!

I've debunked this completely disingenuous statement before on this forum many times!

Facebook friend of mine (who, in fairness has been shielding near constantly since last March) had previously been calling for lockdowns, calling the government "Murderers" for not locking down sooner etc. seems to have changed tune today and wanting hotels etc to reopen (they were vaccinated a few weeks back).

Ah one of those people!

Perhaps the tide of opinion is turning on the matter.

It's been turning for a while but as the economic hit bites more people, vaccinations cover an increasing proportion of the population and so on, it's only going to increase even further.

The lockdown brigade are on the defensive and they know that soon enough they will be defeated.

 

[NorthOxonian]

Facebook friend of mine (who, in fairness has been shielding near constantly since last March) had previously been calling for lockdowns, calling the government "Murderers" for not locking down sooner etc. seems to have changed tune today and wanting hotels etc to reopen (they were vaccinated a few weeks back).

Perhaps the tide of opinion is turning on the matter.

I've also noticed that on twitter, a lot of things like "Summer 2021" and "June" have been trending, and there are very few pro-lockdown tweets or zero-Covid types moaning (still a few, but not many). The vast majority are people either looking forward to the summer or moaning about the unlocking not being quick enough!

I accept that it's hardly the best gauge of public opinion, but perhaps that shift in tone indicates a wider shift in attitudes?

 

[SouthEastBuses]

Mutations are going to happen regardless and are occurring in parallel in different parts of the world (co-evolution); they don't alter the fact that the vaccines offer an incredibly high level of efficacy against serious illness.

Once most people are vaccinated we really don't need to worry that much. A booster vaccine may be required from time to time and that can be done; the idea that stopping people going abroad would have any material effect is based on a misunderstanding of how viruses and vaccines work.

I agree with you.

Time to lift the lockdown now. And to abolish all the ridiculous quarantine requirements now. And to encourage people to go abroad again.

As you rightly said, covid can't be eradicated. Zero covid can't work. Look at Australia and New Zealand. They tried and they still have short lockdowns every now and again.

We need to live with the virus. Now that many people have been vaccinated, it's time we just consider it as a type of typical winter flu, and therefore, we go back to 2019 normality.

 

[Ianno87]

I've also noticed that on twitter, a lot of things like "Summer 2021" and "June" have been trending, and there are very few pro-lockdown tweets or zero-Covid types moaning (still a few, but not many). The vast majority are people either looking forward to the summer or moaning about the unlocking not being quick enough!

I accept that it's hardly the best gauge of public opinion, but perhaps that shift in tone indicates a wider shift in attitudes?

Perhaps the (surprising) relative positivity of today's announcement has had the effect of "winning over" alot of these people.

 

[Philip]

Not that old chestnut AGAIN!

I've debunked this completely disingenuous statement before on this forum many times!

Well why have the Scandinavian countries not been hit anywhere near as hard as UK, France, Spain, Italy and Germany? That said, Sweden with their strategy have been hit harder than Norway, Finland and Denmark.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

It'll go exactly as the roadmap has been set, subject to the four conditions going to plan as they currently are doing. Why on earth would they stretch things out as long as they can considering the impacts this has elsewhere?

I would've liked the stay at home order removed on 8th March but I guess an extra 3 weeks isn't huge. I think most of everything else is pretty positive, although indoor hospitality is over conservative waiting until 17th May, this looks like purely to fit in with the 5 week gap between steps, even though the first week of May would have sufficed.

The four conditions are opaque statements with no metrics defined conveniently. Also they he says they are being led by the data but they don't define what that data is just publish dates that are earliest so they can then use there opaque criteria to defer them.

Pretty disappointing outcome after waiting all these weeks to have such a rigid plan. Plenty of Tories shared that frustration and pushed BoJo in HoC but he was having none of it.

 

[TheGrandWazoo]

We've been through this one loads of times - the main cities, where the population mostly lives, are pretty similar to UK cities so the comparison is very relevant.

We have been through this but that's only partially true.

The population is concentrated in certain areas like Stockholm, Malmo and Gothenburg so looking at a country to country comparison is indeed incorrect. However, when you start drilling down to city and metropolitan levels vs the UK, our towns and cities are more densely inhabited.

As a comparison, somewhere like Malmo has a population of 340k and a density of 2000/km2 against somewhere like Coventry with a population of 316k and a density of 3400/km2. And that's before you factor in stuff like standards of overall health and other disparities like quality of housing, quality of health care provision etc.

 

[peters]

Facebook friend of mine (who, in fairness has been shielding near constantly since last March) had previously been calling for lockdowns, calling the government "Murderers" for not locking down sooner etc. seems to have changed tune today and wanting hotels etc to reopen (they were vaccinated a few weeks back).

I recall last year there were reports the government was considering a London lockdown in early March 2020 but decided against it because they concerned it would be leaked to the media and lead to a repeat of what happened in Italy where people left the area to avoid being stuck in a locked down area. If that was the case it seems the government forgot about it before putting London under tier 4 due to the Kent variant!

Late March 2020 was probably the right date for lockdown in many areas but it seemed a bit late for some areas like London.

As a comparison, somewhere like Malmo has a population of 340k and a density of 2000/km2 against somewhere like Coventry with a population of 316k and a density of 3400/km2. And that's before you factor in stuff like standards of overall health and other disparities like quality of housing, quality of health care provision etc.

At one point our government was concerned about a variant found in minx in Denmark. I guess that Malmo would be at higher risk of getting a Danish variant of COVID than the UK.