22nd February - Roadmap out of the pandemic, lifting of restrictions.

[Skimpot flyer]

There was a vague promise of a review sometime in May. I fear face coverings will be the last precaution to be dropped, as they’re perceived as a minor imposition, make people feel safer, and have wide public acceptance.

Wide public compliance. That is not the same as acceptance.
Most of my work colleagues hate the bloody things but it’s company policy to wear them, since November last year. Prior to that, only about 30% wore them.
I’m exempt. The company backed down on demanding to see medical evidence and it’s ok as one ‘scared witless’ person on my shift now wears TWO !!

 

[NorthOxonian]

According to a poll by Savanta ComRes:

45% think the plan is fairly or very cautious, whilst 19% think it is fairly or very reckless. (31% think it's about right)
52% are overall satisfied with it, 17% are overall dissatisfied.

Given we know polls tend to lean towards supporting restrictions and being cautious, that suggests that the large majority of people are happy with the plans but would want them to go a bit faster.

 

[Skimpot flyer]

This time we are removing restrictions with infection levels and hospital occupancy at a much, much higher level than last year (accepting that officially infections were lower, but testing was at around 5% of the level it is now). And a virus strain that is more infectious.



Next winter doesn’t equal “forever”. Even then it’s by no means certain, just a warning it *might* be necessary.

If testing levels are now 20x greater than when Lockdown 1 was eased, is it not possible that infection levels in the community were actually broadly similar to now, but we lacked the means to confirm that?

 

[Bald Rick]

So when can I travel on a train for non essential travel to go wherever I like. 12th April? 17th May?

Legally, 29 March.
Government guidance will be to keep local until 12 April.

Hospitalisations in England are already below wave one peak and are falling at a far faster rate so by 8th March will be below 10k.

I reckon about 11k, assuming the same week on week reductions we have seen for the last 2 weeks of 21% a week.

When schools went back last in lockdown 1, on June 10 (years 1 and 6 only), hospital occupancy was at around 7,000.

 

[david1212]

I think that was actually a case of the government misleading us. They knew PPE could stop the spread but weren't sure about more basic face coverings without further research. The government probably feared if they said masks must be worn then the price of PPE, which should have been going to front line health workers, would increase and the shortages of PPE would be more severe, crippling the NHS. Now the government has over-orded PPE and there's shipping containers full of it sat in Kent doing nothing, they aren't concerned.

While you are right about mask shortages for NHS and care March - May last year and at the start there was great emphasis on home made face coverings I still have not seen any report clearly stating there is a significant benefit in shops, on public transport etc.

Also if Queen Nicola of Scotland had not made face coverings mandatory first would Boris have followed ? I suspect he is sceptical but has agreed to the regulations we have to appease Hancock, Whitty, SAGE and the unions. Further back last June he was aiming for it only to be at the latest until November.

 

[Bald Rick]

If testing levels are now 20x greater than when Lockdown 1 was eased, is it not possible that infection levels in the community were actually broadly similar to now, but we lacked the means to confirm that?

Very broadly, yes. Easing of lockdown 1 was very gentle at first, and of course it was a harder lockdown.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

If testing levels are now 20x greater than when Lockdown 1 was eased, is it not possible that infection levels in the community were actually broadly similar to now, but we lacked the means to confirm that?

The governments four tests don't quote case levels as one of there tests so there clearly not too fussed by them anymore as a primary indicator. Clearly its a precursor to hospitalisation but if the vaccine is doing its job (which Whitty says its absolutely is) people won't get so ill as to need to be admitted.

 

[Bald Rick]

12 April for local journeys but you should minimise the number of journeys you make. 17 May for any journey, including travelling 100+ miles to go on a weekend city break.

12 April for that also. That’s when ‘self contained’ holiday accommodation can open, for use by members of one household.

The governments four tests don't quote case levels as one of there tests so there clearly not too fussed by them anymore as a primary indicator. Clearly its a precursor to hospitalisation but if the vaccine is doing its job (which Whitty says its absolutely is) people won't get so ill as to need to be admitted.

100%.

One other factor is that because treatment of the disease is much better understood now, some patients are spending less time in hospital, but some of those who may have died last year are surviving but spending rather longer in hospital. So the discharge ‘tail’ may be longer. However I can’t find any recent data to back that up.

 

[JakeMurphy]

Legally, 29 March.
Government guidance will be to keep local until 12 April.

Well the main thing is we got a date to work towards now!

 

[Watershed]

12 April for that also. That’s when ‘self contained’ holiday accommodation can open, for use by members of one household.



100%.

One other factor is that because treatment of the disease is much better understood now, some patients are spending less time in hospital, but some of those who may have died last year are surviving bu5 spending rather longer in hospital. So the discharge ‘tail’ may be longer. However I can’t find any data to back that up.

I've yet to hear any justification for why hotels can't open on the same date. But then very little of this is based in actual risk (otherwise outdoor gatherings with others would never have been banned).

 

[Skimpot flyer]

Well the main thing is we got a date to work towards now!

Is that ‘a 7-mile bike ride’ local or local local...?

 

[birchesgreen]

Legally, 29 March.
Government guidance will be to keep local until 12 April.

Apparently what "local" means will be left to people's discretion...

 

[Bald Rick]

I've yet to hear any justification for why hotels can't open on the same date. But then very little of this is based in actual risk (otherwise outdoor gatherings with others would never have been banned).

I guess it’s the ‘self contained’ element that makes it more secure. In hotels you are more likely to come into close contact with other people indoors, not from your household. Also, if Hotels were open you’d need to find somewhere nearby open for a takeaway or al fresco breakfast, for example. Ok in some places, not easy in others.

Apparently what "local" means will be left to people's discretion...

It is now, by and large!

 

[MikeWM]

This time we are removing restrictions with infection levels and hospital occupancy at a much, much higher level than last year (accepting that officially infections were lower, but testing was at around 5% of the level it is now).

I'm not at all sure what the current level of hospital occupancy has to do with opening pubs *in three months time*. 99% of those people won't be in hospital then, or indeed in one months time.

Level of cases, and likelihood of cases leading to hospitalisation are the only things that matter. The latter ought to be dropping precipitously soon (else what is the point of the vaccine?).

And a virus strain that is more infectious.

Is it? The number of infections (and % of positive tests) has fallen very dramatically over the past 7 weeks (and yes, the peak was far too early to have been inflected by the current lockdown - before we go down that route).

Next winter doesn’t equal “forever”. Even then it’s by no means certain, just a warning it *might* be necessary.

So what specific conditions do you think may be in place next winter that may make it 'necessary', and why would they not also apply every subsequent winter (and indeed summer, for that matter)?

 

[Yew]

So he starts by saying he isn't going to be guided by dates but by data, but then goes and gives dates anyway. Seems somewhat counter productive to me.
I can understand the need for some kind of goal, both for people's sanity but also as a point at which people can question to government on "you said by now we could do X". But giving exact dates seems a bit silly considering how quickly so much of this changes, and how many times over the last year the government have had to backtrack on dates already announced.

However, in general the dates announced, whilst potentially a little too far out for some of the smaller things, seem somewhat sensible to me. Especially if we do want this to be a irrepressible removal of restrictions (otherwise we'd just end up having to pull the breaks right away if we start too quickly). Better to plan to be cautious and if things continue to go well (especially around vaccinations etc) then there's the potential to pull forward some of the dates.

Though some of the specifics for each date seem a bit odd, especially if you compare with some of the other things allowed - take after May 17th, I can go to a football stadium but not meet in a group of 3 people in a pub where those 3 people come from different households? Doesn't really make sense!

You are forgetting the lockdown.

Interesting how we have to wait 5 weeks to see things take effect, but that doesn't apply on the way up.

 

[island]

Especially as back in 2020 there was a period when they weren't sufficiently convinced of the effectiveness to make them mandatory at the time.

I think that was more to do with government panic that demand for masks from the general public would suck up supplies that the NHS needed.

 

[Andy Pacer]

I think that was more to do with government panic that demand for masks from the general public would suck up supplies that the NHS needed.

Fair point!

 

[Yew]

Having now read everything. Assuming the dates are met. I am now significantly happier for the lockdown and restrictions to continue for a little longer if by June that means we've got a good chance of it being over.

Ill try look at this positively as I expected restrictions to be lifted earlier so Im dissapointed but I did not expect to see all restrictions lifted until 2022 so that's a positive.

If the June date keeps being kicked down the road though or it looks like I might I think it will quickly become H bearable again!

If they're going to cast such apolcolytically pessimistic goals, then they need to not be 'subject to review' and certainly not by Chief Sadistical Officer Witty.

 

[Kite159]

12 April for that also. That’s when ‘self contained’ holiday accommodation can open, for use by members of one household.



100%.

One other factor is that because treatment of the disease is much better understood now, some patients are spending less time in hospital, but some of those who may have died last year are surviving but spending rather longer in hospital. So the discharge ‘tail’ may be longer. However I can’t find any recent data to back that up.

In what way is a camp-site classed as "self contained", unless each pitch has it's own toilets?

I suspect prices of holiday let cottages would have sky rocketed since that announcement.

In my eyes hotels should be allowed to open for all from the 12th April, otherwise you will just get people sleeping in each others houses. Otherwise it will be a minefield for the hotel chains which are currently open as people try and book rooms citing all sorts of reasons to why they need to stay as some hotel chains will be stricter than others at demanding proof. More risk of coming into contact with others in the queue for clothing shops when they reopen

 

[Jamesrob637]

Not much point going far on a train before the 12th of April unless closed pubs and shops are your thing.

 

[Bertie the bus]

Legally, 29 March.
Government guidance will be to keep local until 12 April.

I think that is debateable. Outdoor leisure is permitted from 8 March. They have given examples of sitting on a bench drinking coffee and picnics (because Enid Blyton novels are really 21st Century documentaries and we picnic all the time) but last time the law did not prescribe which leisure activities were permitted, just outdoor activities in a public place, so if you are allowed to engage in outdoor leisure you must also be allowed to travel there. I think it will be like in the past where the guidelines will suggest you can do it from 29 March but the law will permit it from 8 March.

 

[NorthOxonian]

Not much point going far on a train before the 12th of April unless closed pubs and shops are your thing.

Agreed - I wouldn't consider making a trip of reasonable length (in my case outside the North East or Scarborough/Whitby) until pubs and cafes reopen properly. Being able to have an early coffee, get some lunch, or have a pint towards the end of a trip all tend to be important parts of my leisure travel.

 

[ivorytoast28]

Not much point going far on a train before the 12th of April unless closed pubs and shops are your thing.

Many people who have been stuck in cramped housing in cities would like to use the train just to get out somewhere else for the day, if we get anything like the weather of early last april I can see plenty wanting to go to beaches/coast walks etc

 

[PTR 444]

Not much point going far on a train before the 12th of April unless closed pubs and shops are your thing.

Many people who have been stuck in cramped housing in cities would like to use the train just to get out somewhere else for the day, if we get anything like the weather of early last april I can see plenty wanting to go to beaches/coast walks etc

Add to that people wanting to visit family and friends in their back gardens after several months apart.

 

[Watershed]

I think that is debateable. Outdoor leisure is permitted from 8 March. They have given examples of sitting on a bench drinking coffee and picnics (because Enid Blyton novels are really 21st Century documentaries and we picnic all the time) but last time the law did not prescribe which leisure activities were permitted, just outdoor activities in a public place, so if you are allowed to engage in outdoor leisure you must also be allowed to travel there. I think it will be like in the past where the guidelines will suggest you can do it from 29 March but the law will permit it from 8 March.

Clearly there will be no legal bar on travel come 29 March.

Between 8 and 28 March it's more complex. Like with exercise now, if you make a long train journey, sit around outside for 5 minutes, and then return, it's questionable whether really you left home for the purposes of outdoor recreation - or actually for a train journey.

If it's the latter, you would theoretically need to establish that your circumstances constituted a reasonable excuse (either under another defined R.E. or de facto) - something on which there is, helpfully, no Covid-related case law.

In practice this is all largely unenforceable, but for those seeking to be on 100% sound legal ground, they would be best off waiting until 29 March.

 

[Bald Rick]

I'm not at all sure what the current level of hospital occupancy has to do with opening pubs *in three months time*

49 days (and yes I’m counting!). But as we saw in round 1, hospital occupancy doesn’t evaporate overnight - Government want to be sure the numbers are going the right way.

Is it? The number of infections (and % of positive tests) has fallen very dramatically over the past 7 weeks (and yes, the peak was far too early to have been inflected by the current lockdown - before we go down that route)

You might have missed a the tier 4 lockdown restrictions imposed on a large proportion of the population a few weeks before this current lockdown? And the Christmas break where many people were off work and thus less likely to come into contact with each other? My household has been in effective lockdown since 19 December. The peak of infections was two weeks later (7 day average, which irons out the varied testing capacity on Christmas Day / Boxing Day / New Year’s Day.) Infections started falling precisely when you would expect them to.

So what specific conditions do you think may be in place next winter that may make it 'necessary', and why would they not also apply every subsequent winter (and indeed summer, for that matter)?

I have no idea. But I do know that, in English, ‘next winter’ doesn’t mean ‘forever’.

In what way is a camp-site classed as "self contained", unless each pitch has it's own toilets?

Outdoors innit

 

[island]

Clearly there will be no legal bar on travel come 29 March.

Between 8 and 28 March it's more complex. Like with exercise now, if you make a long train journey, sit around outside for 5 minutes, and then return, it's questionable whether really you left home for the purposes of outdoor recreation - or actually for a train journey.

If it's the latter, you would theoretically need to establish that your circumstances constituted a reasonable excuse (either under another defined R.E. or de facto) - something on which there is, helpfully, no Covid-related case law.

In practice this is all largely unenforceable, but for those seeking to be on 100% sound legal ground, they would be best off waiting until 29 March.

Thank you for saving me the hassle of typing essentially this.

 

[Bertie the bus]

Clearly there will be no legal bar on travel come 29 March.

Between 8 and 28 March it's more complex. Like with exercise now, if you make a long train journey, sit around outside for 5 minutes, and then return, it's questionable whether really you left home for the purposes of outdoor recreation - or actually for a train journey.

If it's the latter, you would theoretically need to establish that your circumstances constituted a reasonable excuse (either under another defined R.E. or de facto) - something on which there is, helpfully, no Covid-related case law.

In practice this is all largely unenforceable, but for those seeking to be on 100% sound legal ground, they would be best off waiting until 29 March.

The question wasn't when can I whizz around on a train all day, it was when can I travel on a train for non essential travel to go wherever I like? That doesn't suggest a 5 minute break.

Outdoor leisure can't be compared to exercise. Obviously if you travel 150 miles for a short walk it could be argued you didn't leave you house for exercise but if specific outdoor leisure activities aren't prescribed by law then it would be perfectly reasonable for somebody whose chosen outdoor leisure activity is to build a sandcastle or walk along the beach to travel a significant distance if they live nowhere near the coast.

 

[Jamesrob637]

The tarpaulin and pole-making industries will be popular for the next few weeks as every pub seeks to offer legal shelter on rainy days between the 12/04 and the 17/05

 

[Bald Rick]

The question wasn't when can I whizz around on a train all day, it was when can I travel on a train for non essential travel to go wherever I like? That doesn't suggest a 5 minute break.

Outdoor leisure can't be compared to exercise. Obviously if you travel 150 miles for a short walk it could be argued you didn't leave you house for exercise but if specific outdoor leisure activities aren't prescribed by law then it would be perfectly reasonable for somebody whose chosen outdoor leisure activity is to build a sandcastle or walk along the beach to travel a significant distance if they live nowhere near the coast.

The answer, legally, is March 29th. That is when the ‘stay at home’ order, with a list of specific exemptions, is lifted.