22nd February - Roadmap out of the pandemic, lifting of restrictions.

[Nicholas Lewis]

But there were still some COVID bedwetting MPs on the radio this morning "..urging the government to maintain restrictions on foreign travel after May 17th..."

The government doesn't want people to travel abroad until the end of June. That is why there will only be a handful of countries on the Green list, and all sorts of silly rules about expensive PCR tests which will add hundreds of pounds to the cost of a holiday.

We are pretty well in place where normality can return with no masks or social distancing but all the while the majority of the world hasn't caught up with us we should be very wary of importing other variants that may evade the vaccine and until we are sure of that caution should be the watch word. This is what could risk a return to restrictions and quite frankly id rather wait out another year than risk a return the situation we lived through this year. The traffic light system seems reasonable to me and i do hope they opt for caution and not try and play a political card before this Thursdays elections.

 

[Class 33]

Just one death recorded today!! Possibly because yesterday was 14 (highish for a Sunday now) but that is nonetheless good to see.

Yes, I expect there will be a fair more ONE deaths to come, as well as some ZERO's.

It's absolutely bonkers and pointless that these ridiculous over the top damaging hassly restrictions are still continuing, and won't even be properly gone by 21st June it seems. Social distancing to be scrapped. Great! About bloody time! Though still one way systems and perspex screens/dividers still to be kept in shops, pubs, etc! What an earth is the point in keeping those! And face masks still to be worn in shops, cinemas, theatres, on public transport, etc. Again what an earth is the point? All these restrictions need to be scrapped completely by 21st June!

I notice in the recent Downing Street News Conferences, that they don't even mention the hospital numbers and deaths stats anymore like they used to. I wonder why?!

 

[duncanp]

We are pretty well in place where normality can return with no masks or social distancing but all the while the majority of the world hasn't caught up with us we should be very wary of importing other variants that may evade the vaccine and until we are sure of that caution should be the watch word. This is what could risk a return to restrictions and quite frankly id rather wait out another year than risk a return the situation we lived through this year. The traffic light system seems reasonable to me and i do hope they opt for caution and not try and play a political card before this Thursdays elections.

The traffic light system seems reasonable to me as well.

We need to have well defined criteria for which country should be at which level.

In particular, we need to avoid the situation whereby a country is moved down a level one week, and then moved back up a level a few weeks later, as happened last year with Grant Shapps and his quarantine darts.

 

[Jamesrob637]

The traffic light system seems reasonable to me as well.

We need to have well defined criteria for which country should be at which level.

In particular, we need to avoid the situation whereby a country is moved down a level one week, and then moved back up a level a few weeks later, as happened last year with Grant Shapps and his quarantine darts.

Could avoid doubt and put next to nowhere on green, at least at first. Maybe only the islands surrounding the UK.

 

[brad465]

Just one death recorded today!! Possibly because yesterday was 14 (highish for a Sunday now) but that is nonetheless good to see.

1649 cases brings that down too. Hospitalizations won't be updated until Wednesday due to Bank Holiday lag.

At the time of reading this I can't see any update to the .GOV dashboard. Where did you find this out?

 

[Baxenden Bank]

Today's Government talk, including from the PM, about foreign travel and Johnson saying "One metre rule could go from June 21st" would certainly be keeping up a gaslighting approach.

Is there an election imminent?

I'll wait to hear what he has to say from Friday onwards.

 

[mawallace]

Twitter - there has been a delay in updating the dashboard

https://twitter.com/PHE_uk/status/1389237961749934088

 

[DannyMich2018]

Twitter - there has been a delay in updating the dashboard

https://twitter.com/PHE_uk/status/1389237961749934088

I usually check Worldometers which is usually updated daily for the UK around 1600-1700 daily and has the latest UK info stats on cases and deaths and more.

 

[TPO]

OK sorry I misread your post as saying "I am afraid that this will happen.".

But to reiterate, I really do not think that "tough measures to protect the NHS" will be brought back again this autumn/winter. Look at the hospitalizations and deaths stats now. They've all absolutely tumbled over the past few months and are still continuing to fall week on week. By around October near enough all adults in the UK would have received both jabs. Of all the millions who have already been vaccinated, the last report was that only 32 of those people have been admitted to hospital. Hospital numbers and deaths won't be surging up out of control again, and the NHS won't be under extreme pressure again due to Coronavirus. I think those days are thankfully well and truly over now. So there just won't be any valid justifications to ever bring back "tough restrictions" again.

Meanwhile there is conflicting information from Johnson and Raab today with easing of restrictions. Johnson saying he promises to scrap social distancing completely on 21st June. Whilst Raab is saying some social distancing in some settings may have to remain after 21st June!! Who to believe??!!

On the radio, apparently an ^expert^ from Independent Sage reckoned we should keep masks on public transport AND was saying we should not tolerate seasonal flu deaths either..... I got the impression they wanted permanent masks and lock downs every winter to lower flu rates........

TPO

 

[Jamesrob637]

Yes, I expect there will be a fair more ONE deaths to come, as well as some ZERO's.

It's absolutely bonkers and pointless that these ridiculous over the top damaging hassly restrictions are still continuing, and won't even be properly gone by 21st June it seems. Social distancing to be scrapped. Great! About bloody time! Though still one way systems and perspex screens/dividers still to be kept in shops, pubs, etc! What an earth is the point in keeping those! And face masks still to be worn in shops, cinemas, theatres, on public transport, etc. Again what an earth is the point? All these restrictions need to be scrapped completely by 21st June!

I notice in the recent Downing Street News Conferences, that they don't even mention the hospital numbers and deaths stats anymore like they used to. I wonder why?!

We didn't see a zero last summer/autumn. Couple of 1s though.

 

[Class 33]

Front page of tomorrow's Daily Mail....

We didn't see a zero last summer/autumn. Couple of 1s though.

There was actually a ZERO on 30th July last year. And with the success of the vaccines now, I think we'll be seeing at least a few more ZERO's over the coming months, even if not any periods of consistently zero's.

 

[Jamesrob637]

Front page of tomorrow's Daily Mail....

There was actually a ZERO on 30th July last year.

A bit misleading as that implies nothing is happening in a fortnight's time.

The reality is we will make quite a jump towards (the new) normal on the 17th.

 

[brad465]

Front page of tomorrow's Daily Mail....



There was actually a ZERO on 30th July last year. And with the success of the vaccines now, I think we'll be seeing at least a few more ZERO's over the coming months, even if not any periods of consistently zero's.

Yesterday I actually said something about the Daily Mail fluctuating its views on this, and having recently run a covid memorial campaign, it now with this front page seems to be back on the anti-restriction narrative.

 

[Class 33]

A bit misleading as that implies nothing is happening in a fortnight's time.

The reality is we will make quite a jump towards (the new) normal on the 17th.

A jump towards "the new normal"?? We've had the new normal for yonks now. It's high time for the old normal to return!

 

[Jonny]

On the radio, apparently an ^expert^ from Independent Sage reckoned we should keep masks on public transport AND was saying we should not tolerate seasonal flu deaths either..... I got the impression they wanted permanent masks and lock downs every winter to lower flu rates........

That would be an even higher legal risk in terms of coerced vaccination - bear in mind that there has been a flu vaccine for decades now, and people often do not take it.

A jump towards "the new normal"?? We've had the new normal for yonks now. It's high time for the old normal to return!

I agree!

 

[bramling]

That would be an even higher legal risk in terms of coerced vaccination - bear in mind that there has been a flu vaccine for decades now, and people often do not take it.



I agree!

Yes I’m absolutely properly sick of it all now, right down to the latest thing which is my town centre now being an obstacle course of people sitting at tables and chairs!

I’m not sure if Boris and company are simply trying to string it all out to please the groups who have done nicely out of this, but it really should now be a proper “back to normal”, not some weird “new normal”. I absolutely despise that term.

 

[Class 33]

On the radio, apparently an ^expert^ from Independent Sage reckoned we should keep masks on public transport AND was saying we should not tolerate seasonal flu deaths either..... I got the impression they wanted permanent masks and lock downs every winter to lower flu rates........

TPO

These people just don't give in do they!! Dear oh dear oh dear. We've tolerated seasonal flu deaths for thousands of years without wearing face masks and lockdowns! So they can stick that suggestion in the bin!!!

 

[RomeoCharlie71]

We didn't see a zero last summer/autumn. Couple of 1s though.

The 30th July was a zero death day. It was before the figures were revised to "deaths within 28 days of a positive test" rather than a "death following positive test", so the reported figure was probably quite a bit higher.

 

[MikeWM]

On the radio, apparently an ^expert^ from Independent Sage reckoned we should keep masks on public transport AND was saying we should not tolerate seasonal flu deaths either.....

We really need to start being rather more mature as a society as to how we approach death, or our society as we know it will pretty much cease to exist and replaced with a society where prolonging life is viewed as outweighing all other factors, including the quality of those lives. It seems that some people are hoping for exactly that, for some bizarre reason.

In this case, unless the people on Independent Sage have worked out a way to make us all immortal (which itself is a *very* bad idea even if it were possible), the simple fact is that almost everybody who dies from seasonal flu would shortly die from something else instead. Usually that 'something else' is significantly more unpleasant than a quick bout of pneumonia caused by flu (there are good reasons why pneumonia was called 'the old man's friend').

Plus of course there is the continued assumption that masking the general population makes the slightest bit of difference to anything. We've now tried it for a year in all sorts of places around the world, and we have vast amounts of evidence that it doesn't. The quality of 'science' from these people is laughably poor and they need to stop being given a platform to spout their rubbish. Undermining science and the scientific process like this will cause all sorts of other damage in the long-term.

 

[brad465]

We really need to start being rather more mature as a society as to how we approach death, or our society as we know it will pretty much cease to exist and replaced with a society where prolonging life is viewed as outweighing all other factors, including the quality of those lives. It seems that some people are hoping for exactly that, for some bizarre reason.

In this case, unless the people on Independent Sage have worked out a way to make us all immortal (which itself is a *very* bad idea even if it were possible), the simple fact is that almost everybody who dies from seasonal flu would shortly die from something else instead. Usually that 'something else' is significantly more unpleasant than a quick bout of pneumonia caused by flu (there are good reasons why pneumonia was called 'the old man's friend').

Plus of course there is the continued assumption that masking the general population makes the slightest bit of difference to anything. We've now tried it for a year in all sorts of places around the world, and we have vast amounts of evidence that it doesn't. The quality of 'science' from these people is laughably poor and they need to stop being given a platform to spout their rubbish. Undermining science and the scientific process like this will cause all sorts of other damage in the long-term.

Completely agree, I made a thread a while back about covid and "human exceptionalism", where I believe that our covid response has been "human exceptionalism gone mad", primarily in response to trying to save as many lives from covid and, "beat this virus" (because we're "exceptional"). It maddens me how it's dangerous to talk about death in certain ways, even though it is inevitable, and I believe our failure to acknowledge this as a society is holding back progress.

As unfortunate as this is, our best hope is the collateral damage coming up of more deaths from other causes that have been ignored because of covid brings home the reality that, even if we save a life from one cause, nature will only get us another way instead.

The latest form of exceptionalism has to be the obsession about new variants and trying to contain and/or shut them out, despite the fact viral mutations are well known in virology and every year we change and reissue flu vaccines because of them, and contingency to do this for covid has already been announced by vaccine producers.

On the subject of deaths being ignored, on Thursday the ONS releases the next quarter of alcohol-related deaths, that means data for the whole of 2020 is available. This is significant because when Q3 was released, this data was well reported as alcohol deaths being at a record high, so one dreads to think how high Q4 of 2020 was, which contained lockdown 2 and a Christmas like no other (in a bad way).

 

[BJames]

When pubs reopen indoors on 17th May, perhaps there should be a trial, whereby some pubs have no social distancing and masks, just to see whether this increases the risk of transmission.

I don't think there would be any shortage of volunteers willing to take part in such a trial, me included

Any measures that do remain in place after June 21st must have a definite end date, or objective criteria that can reasonably be met in the next few months before the restriction is removed. (eg, no more masks in the pub after all adults have been offered a first dose of the vaccine - at the end of July)

What we don't want is an open ended law that says, for example, masks must be worn on public transport, and there is no specified end date or criteria that needs to be met before the law is abolished.

Count me in incredibly envious of those in Liverpool trials.

Fully agree with the definite end date. Apologies if this has already been noted, but I bookmarked the transport face covering legislation at the time it was put into force (https://www.legislation.gov.uk/uksi/2020/592/pdfs/uksi_20200592_en.pdf) and it was to be put in place for 12 months from the date laid into force, the 15th June. This presents an interesting dilemma - extend for 1 week and then put into guidance? Or extend for another arbitrary period until eventually enforcement and compliance just declines and it gets quietly revoked (I very much hope this isn't the case).

We really need to start being rather more mature as a society as to how we approach death, or our society as we know it will pretty much cease to exist and replaced with a society where prolonging life is viewed as outweighing all other factors, including the quality of those lives. It seems that some people are hoping for exactly that, for some bizarre reason.

In this case, unless the people on Independent Sage have worked out a way to make us all immortal (which itself is a *very* bad idea even if it were possible), the simple fact is that almost everybody who dies from seasonal flu would shortly die from something else instead. Usually that 'something else' is significantly more unpleasant than a quick bout of pneumonia caused by flu (there are good reasons why pneumonia was called 'the old man's friend').

Plus of course there is the continued assumption that masking the general population makes the slightest bit of difference to anything. We've now tried it for a year in all sorts of places around the world, and we have vast amounts of evidence that it doesn't. The quality of 'science' from these people is laughably poor and they need to stop being given a platform to spout their rubbish. Undermining science and the scientific process like this will cause all sorts of other damage in the long-term.

Absolutely agree.

 

[Cdd89]

we should be very wary of importing other variants that may evade the vaccine and until we are sure of that caution should be the watch word. This is what could risk a return to restrictions and quite frankly id rather wait out another year than risk a return the situation we lived through this year.

If I truly believed this I might agree, but I think there’s a logical fallacy somewhere along the way.

We are concerned, I assume we can agree, about a hypothetical variant which is all four of:

1. Highly contagious
2. Causes death/hospitalisation in a high %
3. Not protected for in terms of transmission by current vaccines
4. Not protected for in terms of severe outcomes by current vaccines

Now consider that Australia has to keep going into lockdown based on three or four cases, as they have not accepted endemic transmission. They can stay on top of any new variants (except a hypothetical one that is so transmissible lockdowns don’t work), albeit at huge cost.

We already know that cases escape Australia’s quarantine procedures with some regularity, which if left unchecked would result in endemic transmission. And that is based on far more stringent procedures where every country is equivalent to our red list. Our system is more leaky with red list arrivals mixing in immigration or flight connections with no social distancing with “normal” countries.

The U.K. has accepted endemicity. If a new variant meets all four criteria above, it will find a way in because Australia has proved this under tighter controls. There is no way to aim for Covid zero just for one particular new variant (despite the efforts of surge testing in my local borough) and therefore I don’t see how we prevent such a new variant becoming dominant in the U.K in such a doomsday scenario.

My conclusion from this is that all travel controls are futile unless you are going for both an Australia-style travel ban, and Covid zero at home. Do the former without the latter (or even a half way house) and it’s just an ineffective political point.

(Lucky the concern is merely a hypothetical one! The real solutions involve more worldwide vaccination, and probably vaccine boosters).

 

[quantinghome]

We've endured lockdown and other restrictions for more than a year now. The last 'return to normal' in the autumn ended in disaster as the control measures were ineffective. The vaccine SHOULD be a game-changer, but clearly the risk of having to impose restrictions yet again, and the political consequences that would entail, weigh heavily on government thinking. Hence the step-by-step approach. Evidently they consider that risking the wrath of lockdown sceptics (who are very much in a minority) is less of a problem than risking another primeministerial broadcast to the nation explaining why we're going into a fourth lockdown.

 

[roversfan2001]

The last 'return to normal' in the autumn ended in disaster as the control measures were ineffective. The vaccine SHOULD be a game-changer

The vaccine *is* a game-changer. Anyone who continues to doubt the efficacy of the vaccines we have is no better than the typical anti-vaxxer.

Evidently they consider that risking the wrath of lockdown sceptics (who are very much in a minority) is less of a problem than risking another primeministerial broadcast to the nation explaining why we're going into a fourth lockdown.

Vocal lockdown sceptics may well be in a minority, but you're deluded if you think that most people are following all the rules and regulations. A lot of people like to appear to support the restrictions but will break whatever laws they feel like when it suits them. There's absolutely no chance of a fourth lockdown either, much to your dismay I'm sure.

 

[Jamesrob637]

The 30th July was a zero death day. It was before the figures were revised to "deaths within 28 days of a positive test" rather than a "death following positive test", so the reported figure was probably quite a bit higher.

Oh yeah but as you say, that was exceptional due to a change in the method of reporting.

 

[nlogax]

There's absolutely no chance of a fourth lockdown either, much to your dismay I'm sure.

Knowing how badly things have been handled up by the government until now, even with highly effective vaccines, personally I wouldn't want to display that level of confidence on a public forum.

 

[cuccir]

There won't be a further lockdown unless a vaccine-resistant strain emerges. And even then that would depend on how resistant it is: does it lead to serious or mild infection? Do the vaccines provide 0 protection, or a certain level?

I wouldn't rule out masks/social distancing either persisting in the law until the end of July (presumably 5 weeks after the 21st June, to follow the Roadmap's unlocking timeline), or coming back for a period of time in the winter (this winter only, not in perpetuity). But my sense is that those are the most severe outcomes likely, barring something disastersous happening.

 

[quantinghome]

The vaccine *is* a game-changer. Anyone who continues to doubt the efficacy of the vaccines we have is no better than the typical anti-vaxxer.

When did I express any such doubt? All the evidence shows the vaccines are highly effective against the current strains of virus when people have had their second shot and their immune system has had time to develop defence against the virus. How about we give the vaccine programme the time it needs to complete the roll-out before we remove restrictions?

Vocal lockdown sceptics may well be in a minority, but you're deluded if you think that most people are following all the rules and regulations. A lot of people like to appear to support the restrictions but will break whatever laws they feel like when it suits them.

This is complete non-sequitur. My point was nothing to do with whether people are following the rules.

There's absolutely no chance of a fourth lockdown either, much to your dismay I'm sure.

What a weird thing to say.

 

[roversfan2001]

How about we give the vaccine programme the time it needs to complete the roll-out before we remove restrictions?

Because we don't need to? The vulnerable have been vaccinated, that's all we needed to do. There's no benefit to keeping restrictions until everyone has been vaccinated. The number of deaths prevented will be absolutely miniscule.

This is complete non-sequitur. My point was nothing to do with whether people are following the rules.

But your point completely failed to address that a lot of people 'support the restrictions' except when it applies to them. It's easy for people to say 'yeah let's keep restrictions until no one dies' to look good. Their actions quite clearly don't tally with their words. The number of people who support restrictions and actually follow all the rules is tiny.

What a weird thing to say.

The only possible reason for people to still want these incredibly damaging restrictions to continue is that they benefit from them.

 

[nlogax]

The only possible reason for people to still want these incredibly damaging restrictions to continue is that they benefit from them.

You know there's a difference between suggesting another lockdown could occur and actually wanting another lockdown to occur. Yes?