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Should restrictions be eased fully if Indian Variant case rates do not decline before June 21st?

If case rates do not decline before June 21st, what do you think should happen with the roadmap?

  • Go ahead with easing of all Covid restrictions on June 21st, assuming vaccinations are ramped up

    Votes: 174 52.9%
  • Go ahead with stage 4 of easing restrictions on June 21st, but keep masks and WFH guidance

    Votes: 29 8.8%
  • Ease some stage 4 restrictions on June 21st, but keep others for longer

    Votes: 36 10.9%
  • Postpone stage 4 easing to a later date in the worst affected hotspots

    Votes: 17 5.2%
  • Postpone stage 4 easing to a later date everywhere

    Votes: 47 14.3%
  • Impose new localised restrictions in the worst affected hotspots

    Votes: 7 2.1%
  • Impose new national restrictions

    Votes: 11 3.3%
  • Other (please specify)

    Votes: 8 2.4%

  • Total voters
    329
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Bald Rick

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But many will read this...

Ahead of the final step, the Government will review of the measures put in place to limit the spread of the virus. Depending on the results of the review, the Government hopes to lift measures and return to as close to normal as possible:

  • Lockdown will be lifted and all legal limits on social contact removed.
  • Nightclubs would be expected to reopen, and restrictions on large events like weddings and performances would be lifted.

the above does not equal....

all restrictions removed and back to 'normal'

I want the country to be back to normal, and I want it now. But, the Government’s COVID delivery plan said the following, when it was published in February; I’ve highlighted a few words which clearly show that even back then, June 21st was not expected to be back to normal.

126. Step 4 will take place no earlier than 21 June, and at least five weeks after Step 3, following a further review of the data against the four tests. As before, the Government will announce one week in advance whether restrictions will be eased as planned.

127. With appropriate mitigations in place, by Step 4, the Government aims to:
a. Remove all legal limits on social contact, publishing accompanying guidance on how best to reduce the risk of transmission and protect ourselves and loved ones;
b. Reopen the remaining closed settings, including nightclubs and enable large events, including theatre performances, above the Step 3 capacity restrictions, subject to the outcome of the scientific Events Research Programme (set out in paragraphs 132 to 134) and potentially using testing to reduce the risk of infection, subject to further evaluation; and
c. Remove all limits on weddings and other life events, subject to the outcome of the scientific Events Research Programme.
 
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nlogax

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So hospital numbers reaching a peak of about 17,500 during Autumn? I really think that is highly highly unlikely. I'd be absolutely amazed if absolutely worst case scenario hospital numbers reach anywhere near even 5,000. By the autumn near enough all adults would have received both doses of the vaccine. We're not going to get huge numbers of people admitted to hospital again like before. In the meantime, hospital numbers are continuing to fall.

Heard this morning that once the vaccine program finished it's estimated that between those whose vaccinations haven't been effective and those whom can't or won't get vaccinated, 12 million will still be considered 'at risk' of contracting Covid in a form serious enough to merit being hospitalized. Based on that figure I'd say 17,500 peak hospitalizations could be a reasonable prediction.

Of course the devil is in the details. 12 million across the entire population and a lot of vaccinated people in the gaps.

The worst cast scenarios always strike me as something that can only really occur in a mathematical model. In reality real life just has too many variables that mean these worst case scenarios will almost certainly not come to pass.

Yep, exactly this.
 

Smidster

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I've seen enough false dawns and lack the confidence in the British regime's ability not to make the same mistakes over and over again. I hope to be pleasantly surprised.

I get that - and I am sure there is nothing that our current Government couldn't mess up (after all it is an administration based on lies) but the fundamentals have changed due to vaccines.

It isn't like last Summer where it was inevitable that increased contact would lead to increased infections that would lead to death as we now have pretty good levels of protection across the whole community and very good protection for the vulnerable.

So unless Bozo has run a programme where 90% of the vaccines were actually water we will be fine.
 

Domh245

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Heard this morning that once the vaccine program finished it's estimated that between those whose vaccinations haven't been effective and those whom can't or won't get vaccinated, 12 million will still be considered 'at risk' of contracting Covid in a form serious enough to merit being hospitalized. Based on that figure I'd say 17,500 peak hospitalizations could be a reasonable prediction.

Of course the devil is in the details. 12 million across the entire population and a lot of vaccinated people in the gaps.

I initially had the same "that's a lot of people" reaction, but what I'd failed to consider is that those 12 million are only at-risk when there's significant levels of covid in the population. With the better understanding we have now of the reduced transmission risk from vaccination, alongside existing immunity, I just fail to see how we can ever have a situation where those 12 million 'at-risk' are exposed to the virus, let alone over any sort of timeframe that could cause issues.
 

Nicholas Lewis

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Another new name popping out of the woodwork, who wants to be famous for 15 mins, best way of doing that is scare the population into locking all the doors and windows
Hes been cropping on and off through this but he hasn't made celebrity status like some of them have so maybe sees the door about to close!.

Anyhow Devi Sridhar who is on the A list for media goto person who pushes for much harsher restrictions is actually stating the following in her twiitter feed and link to a guardian article

Zero COVID was 'least worst' path. Post-vaccine, science has succeeded in making COVID a manageable health issue. Goal was to break the link between cases, hospitalisations and deaths. Vaccines seem to do this.

OK not an outright endorsement that things are going well but a clear signal that the world has changed with the arrival of vaccines and with every day that goes by showing hospitalisations are not materially changing upwards, ok they are rather static, means we are protecting the NHS and as long as that test continues to be fulfilled by 14th June then Step 4 should be allowed. Mind you I suspect it won't be the end and there will be some symbolic measures kept in place as he doesn't want to reverse anything.

Also i would be fine for table service to continue in pubs for evermore never like having to queue to get a round in a busy pub anyhow!
 

Dent

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It isn't like last Summer where it was inevitable that increased contact would lead to increased infections that would lead to death

You can't really say that it was "inevitable" given that the relaxation of restrictions last summer didn't lead to any increase in infections.
 

Darandio

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You can't really say that it was "inevitable" given that the relaxation of restrictions last summer didn't lead to any increase in infections.

But last summer we didn't have the Indian variant that you could catch by just looking at someone the wrong way. Neither did we have the Vietnamese hybrid variant that can be caught merely by being in the same postcode.
 

Xenophon PCDGS

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So hospital numbers reaching a peak of about 17,500 during Autumn? I really think that is highly highly unlikely. I'd be absolutely amazed if absolutely worst case scenario hospital numbers reach anywhere near even 5,000. By the autumn near enough all adults would have received both doses of the vaccine. We're not going to get huge numbers of people admitted to hospital again like before. In the meantime, hospital numbers are continuing to fall.
It has been said that the middle months of the year, being statistically warmer in ambient temperature, tend to see a dimunation in the effects of the Covid-19 viral infection.
 

nlogax

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I just fail to see how we can ever have a situation where those 12 million 'at-risk' are exposed to the virus, let alone over any sort of timeframe that could cause issues.

Quite. Vaccines and built-up immunity from actually having caught the damned thing are the major differences between last year and now. Not quite herd immunity but something that looks an awful lot like it.
 

Freightmaster

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This is part of the problem.

Ever since the roadmap was published in February, the press have dubbed 21st June "Freedom Day", when all restrictions will be removed, and this has become implanted in people's minds.
That's because the roadmap as published only had four steps - if the government knew all along that they intended to keep
restrictions in place after June 21st, why didn't they make it clear that there were five steps to 'freedom', rather than four??




MARK
 

greyman42

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Whoever those two people on here who voted "Impose new national restrictions", would you care to explain why you voted for this?
It might be people who don't fancy having to work for a living.

Likewise for the 16 who want to keep mandatory mask wearing after June 21st - why on earth would anyone want that???! o_O





MARK
Oddballs and eccentrics.
 

Mcr Warrior

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Just to be quite clear, what current restrictions might not now be eased, on or immediately after 21st June?
 

PTR 444

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Just to be quite clear, what current restrictions might not now be eased, on or immediately after 21st June?
  • Nightclubs reopening
  • Weddings and funerals permitting more than 30 guests
  • End of all legal social restrictions
  • (Possibly) End of mask mandate and WfH guidance
Considering that most people catching the new variant are under the age of 30, I can see a scenario where all legal restrictions on gatherings are removed but nightclubs remain closed due to most of their target audience not being vaccinated yet. I’d like to hope that this wouldn’t happen though.
 

Xenophon PCDGS

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  • Considering that most people catching the new variant are under the age of 30, I can see a scenario where all legal restrictions on gatherings are removed but nightclubs remain closed due to most of their target audience not being vaccinated yet. I’d like to hope that this wouldn’t happen though.
According to the District Nurse who visited me this morning to take blood samples, she said that on some regional television news over the last few weeks or so have been people in that under the age of 30 group, who said that they were not bothering to be vaccinated and thought that the Covid-19 scenario was one big joke, laughing as they said it. I had not seen these, but she as a medical professional thought such an attitude was disgraceful.
 
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Dent

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Considering that most people catching the new variant are under the age of 30, I can see a scenario where all legal restrictions on gatherings are removed but nightclubs remain closed due to most of their target audience not being vaccinated yet. I’d like to hope that this wouldn’t happen though.

That's presumably only because most people under 30 are not yet vaccinated, but they will be shortly.
 

Ianno87

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  • Nightclubs reopening
  • Weddings and funerals permitting more than 30 guests
  • End of all legal social restrictions
  • (Possibly) End of mask mandate and WfH guidance
Considering that most people catching the new variant are under the age of 30, I can see a scenario where all legal restrictions on gatherings are removed but nightclubs remain closed due to most of their target audience not being vaccinated yet. I’d like to hope that this wouldn’t happen though.

I do feel for people attempting to get married; some people have had to put dates back several times already. Wedding/Funeral gatherings should be eased on 21st June regardless.
 

Bantamzen

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According to the District Nurse who visited me this morning to take blood samples, she said that on some regional television news over the last few weeks or so have been people in that under the age of 30 group, who said that they were not bothering to be vaccinated and thought that the Covid-19 scenario was one big joke, laughing as they said it. I had not seen these, but she as a medical professional thought such an attitude was disgraceful.
That's an odd thing to say given that in most parts of the UK the under 30s have not even been offered it yet! She might be better waiting to see how the under 30s respond when vaccines come online for them.
 

NorthOxonian

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That's an odd thing to say given that in most parts of the UK the under 30s have not even been offered it yet! She might be better waiting to see how the under 30s respond when vaccines come online for them.
Quite - I'd say the vast majority of people my age who I've talked to are keen on having it, regardless of their views on the last 18 months. And that's a fairly wide cross-section of society - it applies equally to my friends from university (generally extremely well off, and nearly all from London or other big cities) and my friends from home (generally working class, and from a pretty ordinary town in the North East).
 

philosopher

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That's because the roadmap as published only had four steps - if the government knew all along that they intended to keep
restrictions in place after June 21st, why didn't they make it clear that there were five steps to 'freedom', rather than four??
If the 21st June easing just involves removal of social limits on gatherings and reopening nightclubs, which is the bare minimum the roadmap promised then many are going to see it as little more than a token gesture. The roadmap will have technically been fulfilled, but heavy restrictions will remain. It also raises the question of just when the remaining restrictions will go.

I would personally prefer it if step 4 was delayed by a few weeks if it meant masks, test and trace, social distancing and the WFH advice could be dropped for good.
 

duncanp

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If the 21st June easing just involves removal of social limits on gatherings and reopening nightclubs, which is the bare minimum the roadmap promised then many are going to see it as little more than a token gesture. The roadmap will have technically been fulfilled, but heavy restrictions will remain. It also raises the question of just when the remaining restrictions will go.

I would personally prefer it if step 4 was delayed by a few weeks if it meant masks, test and trace, social distancing and the WFH advice could be dropped for good.

I would rather that removal of limits on social gatherings and reopening of nightclubs went ahead on June 21st as planned, otherwise SAGE will try and find an excuse why the "few weeks" delay to stage 4 should keep being extended.

Once nightclubs have reopened and limits on social gatherings abolished, it is much harder for them to be reinstated, especially if the data shows that, contrary to predicitions, armageddon hasn't happened.

However any reopenings on June 21st should be accompanied by a clear statement about the removal of remaining restrictions, ie. what criteria will be used to judge whether they can be removed, and when those criteria are expected to be met.
 

LAX54

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  • Nightclubs reopening
  • Weddings and funerals permitting more than 30 guests
  • End of all legal social restrictions
  • (Possibly) End of mask mandate and WfH guidance
Considering that most people catching the new variant are under the age of 30, I can see a scenario where all legal restrictions on gatherings are removed but nightclubs remain closed due to most of their target audience not being vaccinated yet. I’d like to hope that this wouldn’t happen though.
and lets hope its an end of the shops saying ...we will have 2 or 4 or ever how many in the shop at one time, the rest can wait outside, and the, in my view, one way in, one way out of Supermarkets, our local Tesco still does this, but to get in the store you have to walk past the out only, but the path is so narrow everyone is squashed up trying to negotiate it .....but the 'way out' door is wide and has very few people using it !

the above does not equal....



I want the country to be back to normal, and I want it now. But, the Government’s COVID delivery plan said the following, when it was published in February; I’ve highlighted a few words which clearly show that even back then, June 21st was not expected to be back to normal.

126. Step 4 will take place no earlier than 21 June, and at least five weeks after Step 3, following a further review of the data against the four tests. As before, the Government will announce one week in advance whether restrictions will be eased as planned.

127. With appropriate mitigations in place, by Step 4, the Government aims to:
a. Remove all legal limits on social contact, publishing accompanying guidance on how best to reduce the risk of transmission and protect ourselves and loved ones;
b. Reopen the remaining closed settings, including nightclubs and enable large events, including theatre performances, above the Step 3 capacity restrictions, subject to the outcome of the scientific Events Research Programme (set out in paragraphs 132 to 134) and potentially using testing to reduce the risk of infection, subject to further evaluation; and
c. Remove all limits on weddings and other life events, subject to the outcome of the scientific Events Research Programme.
Agreed :) although most I have spoken to recently think that June 21 is the 'end date' and almost written in stone too !
 

brad465

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Considering that most people catching the new variant are under the age of 30, I can see a scenario where all legal restrictions on gatherings are removed but nightclubs remain closed due to most of their target audience not being vaccinated yet. I’d like to hope that this wouldn’t happen though.
While I'm in this demographic, being 25, I also enjoyed going to trance parties (that either were in nightclubs or similar settings/layouts) in 2019 where a large proportion of attendees looked middle aged (which makes sense because trance music peaked in the 90s/00s when those middle aged now were in their clubbing years), and have another party I can hopefully attend in September that was postponed from July 2020. Therefore there would be older groups losing out to this as well, not to mention also there are people working in the world of nightclubs as DJs, owners, security guards and perhaps also bar staff who need the work and are likely to be older than the partying demographic is stereotypically.
 

nlogax

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No.10 still seems set on staying the course re. June 21st and with whatever the date did / didn't promise. I'm sure that there'll be some - including a few of you - determined to burn their masks in the streets ;)
 

bramling

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According to the District Nurse who visited me this morning to take blood samples, she said that on some regional television news over the last few weeks or so have been people in that under the age of 30 group, who said that they were not bothering to be vaccinated and thought that the Covid-19 scenario was one big joke, laughing as they said it. I had not seen these, but she as a medical professional thought such an attitude was disgraceful.

I've not met anyone who sees Covid as a joke. However I do get feeling that many younger people are looking at the subject of vaccination as like a set of scales, with the potential unknown risks of a novel vaccine on one side, versus the increasingly known risks of Covid-19 on the other. For some people the scales are clearly tipping very slightly on the "don't get vaccinated" side, and I suspect in most cases that's a "don't get vaccinated yet", rather than at all. I wouldn't see this as disgraceful, on the contrary it's rational decision-making in action.

No.10 still seems set on staying the course re. June 21st and with whatever the date did / didn't promise. I'm sure that there'll be some - including a few of you - determined to burn their masks in the streets ;)

Given the 11th-hour u-turns over schools and Christmas, unfortunately Boris's words are pretty meaningless!
 

Darandio

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Zero daily deaths announced today for the first time since the pandemic started. This despite a bigly scary Indian variant that has been around for weeks (likely numbered in months), this also despite restrictions being gradually eased for nearly 12 weeks now.

Yet there are still people out there desperate for us to return to even more draconian restrictions, let that sink in for a minute.

If this gets the naysayer responses I expect, i'll update my Covid bingo card accordingly.
 

Nicholas Lewis

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Zero daily deaths announced today for the first time since the pandemic started. This despite a bigly scary Indian variant that has been around for weeks (likely numbered in months), this also despite restrictions being gradually eased for nearly 12 weeks now.

Yet there are still people out there desperate for us to return to even more draconian restrictions, let that sink in for a minute.

If this gets the naysayer responses I expect, i'll update my Covid bingo card accordingly.
English hospitalisations and admission rates have shown a slight uptick over last week but over 7 day averaging the numbers have plateaued so they aren't presenting a new threat to NHS capacity. Also the latest CO-CIN_Dynamic_Report shows majority of patients aren't hospitalised for very long and c65% are just on ward now with no oxygen support and substantially reduced admissions to ICU and if it remains at this level then govt should be celebrating what a great job the vaccine has done and moving on with Step 4.
 

duncanp

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And the strapline on the Daily Mail front page is

UK records ZERO Covid deaths for the first time in 10 months as top scientist says jabs DO work against Indian variant because 'virtually all' new infections are under-50s – despite SAGE's push for June 21 Freedom Day to be delayed by a month​


If :-

  • There is data to show that the vaccines work against the Indian variant
  • The government can meet its' target of giving a second dose of the vaccine to all clinically vulnerable people and over 50s by 21st June
  • The vaccine roll out to people under the age of 50 continues to progress well

then there is every chance that stage 4 of the roadmap will go ahead as envisaged, with perhaps a few residual restrictions until the end of July.

Some papers are quoting "..fears that the Indian variant will spark a third wave within weeks..."

How many weeks exactly? How big will this "third wave" be?

The Indian variant has been present in the UK for the better part of two months now, and if it was going to cause a huge surge like we saw in January you would have expected that to show through in the figures by now.
 
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