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Should restrictions be eased fully if Indian Variant case rates do not decline before June 21st?

If case rates do not decline before June 21st, what do you think should happen with the roadmap?

  • Go ahead with easing of all Covid restrictions on June 21st, assuming vaccinations are ramped up

    Votes: 174 52.9%
  • Go ahead with stage 4 of easing restrictions on June 21st, but keep masks and WFH guidance

    Votes: 29 8.8%
  • Ease some stage 4 restrictions on June 21st, but keep others for longer

    Votes: 36 10.9%
  • Postpone stage 4 easing to a later date in the worst affected hotspots

    Votes: 17 5.2%
  • Postpone stage 4 easing to a later date everywhere

    Votes: 47 14.3%
  • Impose new localised restrictions in the worst affected hotspots

    Votes: 7 2.1%
  • Impose new national restrictions

    Votes: 11 3.3%
  • Other (please specify)

    Votes: 8 2.4%

  • Total voters
    329
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nlogax

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Boris Johnson is quoted as saying today he is "still looking at the data"

Someone talking him through it with the aid of an abacus or a Little Professor calculator.

Credit where it is due - at least he isn't (yet) being panicked into cancelling 21st June altogether.

My money is still on some restrictions being eased on June 21st, and the remaining restrictions being done away with on or before the school holdiays start.

It may be that, on Monday, he announces that some restrictions will definitely be eased on June 21st, but that the others will be abolished on a date "..no earlier than July 5th.."

Think you're on the money there. The big question is which ones disappear as originally envisaged and which restrictions stick around for a bit longer.
 
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NorthOxonian

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Because they see hospitalisation now as being like hospitalisation 6 months ago - long lasting, intensive, and with very serious knock on effects.

The question, and I can't make my mind up whether the data points towards the risk being sustainable, or a deferral being necessary to manage the scale of further increase, is whether growth in both cases and hospitalisations is manageable, or needs to be nipped in the bud because it's likely to be highly disruptive. Even the more optimistic of the sensible commentators have havered on this point, and consistently argued it to be finely balanced.
In my personal opinion, the growth in cases is 10-20% faster than I'd ideally like. And while it seems the link between hospitalisations and cases is weaker, it's not completely broken (half as many cases as before go to hospital, but that ratio seems to have stabilised). I would risk reopening on these numbers, but it's a close call and we know the government tends to be timorous.
 

MikeWM

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Johnson said, in several Covid news conferences that I watched since February, that each stage of the re-opening would lead to more infections and hospitalisations. Whatever his many faults, he was quite open and straightforward on this point.

Now that re-opening has seen more infections and (slightly) more hospitalisations - as predicted - why are so many intelligent people running around in panic as though this was entirely unexpected?

As the ever-excellent David Paton points out on Twitter

https://twitter.com/cricketwyvern/status/1402652026182459395

the current hospitalisation figures are significantly below even the most optimistic SAGE model (out of a choice of 5 they presented) for this point in the roadmap.

Does anyone even remember last March? 'Flatten the curve' was the supposed point, not whatever mirage we now appear to be chasing.


Even the wretched Guardian is starting to realise that a prolonged period of shutting down society and social interactions has downsides:

https://www.theguardian.com/society...-weakened-childrens-immune-system-experts-say
Scientists are concerned that measures to combat Covid-19 have weakened the immune systems of young children who have not been able to build up resistance to common bugs, leaving them vulnerable when mask-wearing and social distancing eventually end.

Contact with viral pathogens happens on a fairly regular basis and although it does not always lead to sickness, the exposure helps shore the immune system against the threat should the bugs be encountered again.

though I'm not sure why we need 'experts' to tell us that, some of us have been saying this here and elsewhere for over a year now. (Apart from the mask-wearing part, of course, given that has no effect whatever, but its the Guardian so they have to mention masks in every article...)

They don't seem to have an answer to this in the article - as its the Guardian I'm sure it is either permanent lockdown or more vaccines (or both) - but anyone with a brain cell or three should be able to see that the actual answer is to get back to normal ASAP.
 

Nicholas Lewis

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Because they see hospitalisation now as being like hospitalisation 6 months ago - long lasting, intensive, and with very serious knock on effects.

The question, and I can't make my mind up whether the data points towards the risk being sustainable, or a deferral being necessary to manage the scale of further increase, is whether growth in both cases and hospitalisations is manageable, or needs to be nipped in the bud because it's likely to be highly disruptive. Even the more optimistic of the sensible commentators have havered on this point, and consistently argued it to be finely balanced.
Hospitalisations as a percentage of total cases continue to fall which you would expect as the vaccine does it stuff. OK if cases escalate massively even 2% will become a lot of people but its a whole magnitude less than it was at the start of the year and this is why govt should keep step 4 on plan evem if its means retaining social distancing and masks for an extended period.

1623258095754.png
 

Wuffle

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Lockdown in the first place was sensible as no one knew much about the virus. It's the second and third lockdown that should potentially have never happened.
I have read enough research papers which are available on the internet which suggest that Lockdowns if anything worsen the effects of the virus and that's without the collateral damage we are now seeing in other physical illnesses and mental health
Sweden never locked down in the way that the UK did and has fared much better

There's a book by Toby Green called The Covid Consensus which is very interesting reading about the rising inequalities in the world caused by lockdowns - should be required reading for Sir Kier Starmer and the TUC
 

duncanp

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Someone talking him through it with the aid of an abacus or a Little Professor calculator.



Think you're on the money there. The big question is which ones disappear as originally envisaged and which restrictions stick around for a bit longer.

My guess is that Boris Johnson will announce something like the following from June 21st:-
  • Limit on attendance at weddings and other life events raised from 30 to 75
  • Increase in the number of people and households who can meet indoors
  • Ordering at the bar allowed in pubs. 1 metre + rule abolished in pubs to be replaced by a two thirds or three quarters capacity limit.
  • Nightclubs allowed to reopen, but with a two thirds or three quarters capacity limit.
These are only guesses of course, and there are many permutations as to what could be allowed. But they would at least make it slightly easier for the venues affected, and give people hope that things are moving in the right direction, albeit more slowly than anticipated.

Compulsory masks on public transport and in shops, plus compulsory Track & Trace, are unfortunately likely to be one of the last measures to be abolished.
 

35B

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Who sees it that way?

The NHS have been making it quite clear that the people who are going in aren't as seriously ill as they were in early waves. They are younger, or don't require intensive care as much and they're coming out sooner.
The "intelligent people running around in panic as though this was entirely unexpected" referred to by @Bishopstone
 

Nicholas Lewis

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Below shows our hospitalisation rate normalised by population compared to some European countries which shows how significantly ahead of the game the UK is due to vaccine heavily moderating the amount of people being hospitalised. Govt should be celebrating this achievement but i suspect some ministers know that once the crisis has passed they are for the chop so like to keep the Covid show on the road.

1623258849319.png
 

philosopher

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My guess is that Boris Johnson will announce something like the following from June 21st:-
  • Limit on attendance at weddings and other life events raised from 30 to 75
  • Increase in the number of people and households who can meet indoors
  • Ordering at the bar allowed in pubs. 1 metre + rule abolished in pubs to be replaced by a two thirds or three quarters capacity limit.
  • Nightclubs allowed to reopen, but with a two thirds or three quarters capacity limit.
These are only guesses of course, and there are many permutations as to what could be allowed. But they would at least make it slightly easier for the venues affected, and give people hope that things are moving in the right direction, albeit more slowly than anticipated.

Compulsory masks on public transport and in shops, plus compulsory Track & Trace, are unfortunately likely to be one of the last measures to be abolished.
Getting my crystal ball out, I predict the following:
Stage 4 will be delayed by three weeks. When step four does occur it will involve the following
  • Gathering limit removed, i.e weddings can be of any size. However large formal gatherings will require everyone to be seated most of the time
  • Bar service in pubs will be allowed, however pubs will still not be allowed to exceed their seated occupancy
  • Masks will remain in shops and public transport but will removed everywhere else, such as in pubs and museums
  • Cinemas and theatres to be allowed to operate pretty much normally
  • Nightclubs to be allowed to operate at 50% capacity
  • Capacity limits for shops will remain
  • Work from home advice will be replaced by guidance that offices should not exceed 50% of their seated occupancy
  • Test and trace to remain unchanged
The remaining restrictions I suspect will remain until next Spring, however if by late Autumn there is no sign of the winter wave they may be removed in November or December, just in time for Christmas.
 

duncanp

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The remaining restrictions I suspect will remain until next Spring, however if by late Autumn there is no sign of the winter wave they may be removed in November or December, just in time for Christmas.

I think any residual restrictions could be abolished around two weeks after all adults have been offered two doses of the vaccine, which would be sometime in October.

By then there should be sufficient data on how effective the vaccines are against all known variants, which should mean that the risk of opening up is very much lower than it would be without the data.

Any restrictions which are in place over the winter could consist of advice and guidance, rather than formal prohibitions.
 

kristiang85

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For comparison, when we hit 7500 in September there were 288 hospitalisations at that point. We are nowhere near that now. And said hospitalisations are much less serious.
 

Class 33

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Getting my crystal ball out, I predict the following:
Stage 4 will be delayed by three weeks. When step four does occur it will involve the following
  • Gathering limit removed, i.e weddings can be of any size. However large formal gatherings will require everyone to be seated most of the time
  • Bar service in pubs will be allowed, however pubs will still not be allowed to exceed their seated occupancy
  • Masks will remain in shops and public transport but will removed everywhere else, such as in pubs and museums
  • Cinemas and theatres to be allowed to operate pretty much normally
  • Nightclubs to be allowed to operate at 50% capacity
  • Capacity limits for shops will remain
  • Work from home advice will be replaced by guidance that offices should not exceed 50% of their seated occupancy
  • Test and trace to remain unchanged
The remaining restrictions I suspect will remain until next Spring, however if by late Autumn there is no sign of the winter wave they may be removed in November or December, just in time for Christmas.

If your predictions are right, then I think I'll be gone from this world long before next spring. NEXT SPRING??!! Jesus christ! I don't think I'll be able to stand this madness and nonsense for as long as the autumn, let alone next spring. All this social distancing, black and yellow hazzard tapes, silly floor markings, signs telling us to "Keep your distance", "Please respect social distancing. Always stay 2 metres apart from other people", having to wear these awful face masks, signs telling us "You must wear face masks at all times", stupid tedious PA announcements going off every few minutes in shops, trains, etc telling us we MUST socially distance and we MUST wear face masks at all times. Some 15 months we've had to endure this nonsense now. And for many of us, it has been extremely draining on our mental health and wellbeing. Many just can't take this for too much longer now. For the sake of the mental health of MILLIONS of people in this country, this madness really has to end ASAP. Also for the sake of the economy too. If this madness drags on past 21st June, many businesses in the hospitality and leisure industry will go under. Many are struggling to even break even as it is because of this nonsense. If Johnson does go and delay the end of restrictions on 21st June, then it's quite obvious he isn't atall concerned about the problems these seemingly never ending restrictions are having on this country.


Whilst cases have unfortunately risen, deaths and hospital numbers are still very low and relatively stable. There is absolutely no reasons whatsoever for 21st June to be delayed!


Social distancing and face mask wearing. Please hurry up and bugger off for good. We've just about had enough of you now. We absolutely DETEST you. You are ruining the country!
 
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nedchester

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If your predictions are right, then I think I'll be gone from this world long before next spring. NEXT SPRING??!! Jesus christ! I don't think I'll be able to stand this madness and nonsense for as long as the autumn, let alone next spring. All this social distancing, black and yellow hazzard tapes, silly floor markings, signs telling us to "Keep your distance", "Please respect social distancing. Always stay 2 metres apart from other people", having to wear these awful face masks, signs telling us "You must wear face masks at all times", stupid tedious PA announcements going off every few minutes in shops, trains, etc telling us we MUST socially distance and we MUST wear face masks at all times. Some 15 months we've had to endure this nonsense now. And for many of us, it has been extremely draining on our mental health and wellbeing. Many just can't take this for too much longer now. For the sake of the mental health of MILLIONS of people in this country, this madness really has to end ASAP. Also for the sake of the economy too. If this madness drags on past 21st June, many businesses in the hospitality and leisure industry will go under. Many are struggling to even break even as it is because of this nonsense. If Johnson does go and delay the end of restrictions on 21st June, then it's quite obvious he isn't atall concerned about the problems these seemingly never ending restrictions are having on this country.


Whilst cases have unfortunately risen, deaths and hospital numbers are still very low and relatively stable. There is absolutely no reasons whatsoever for 21st June to be delayed!


Social distancing and face mask wearing. Please hurry up and bugger off for good. We've just about had enough of you now. We absolutely DETEST you. You are ruining the country!

Yep had enough and of course as far as social distancing and mask wearing the power is in the hands of the public……….
 

Class 33

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Yep had enough and of course as far as social distancing and mask wearing the power is in the hands of the public……….

As I mentioned, from my experiences of walking around the past few weeks, I'd say about 99.5% of people have given up social distancing when passing people in the street, in shopping centres, etc. It seems near enough the whole country has had enough of social distancing now and think it's absolutely pointless it continuing any longer. But of course there's more to social distancing than that, and all these businesses still need to adhere to social distancing/Covid-secure restrictions in their premises, otherwise if caught they risk getting fined and possibly losing their licenses. That's the problem whilst this nonsense still drags on and on.

So much for Johnson saying a few weeks ago "There is a good chance, a good chance, that we can completely scrap social distancing on 21st June.". It doesn't look like that will happen now.

Regarding face mask wearing. From my observations, I have seen a marginal reduction in people wearing them on public transport. Some people just wearing them on their chins - ready to quickly put them on properly again if needed. And some not wearing them atall. Also a marginal number of people not wearing them in indoor shopping centres(not including any actual shops). But the vast majority of people still wearing them in supermarkets and shops. If indeed face mask wearing requirements still continue beyond 21st June(which sadly it looks like it will) and with either no possible end date given or a ridiculous long term date such as April 2022, December 2021 or whatever, then I really hope compliance with this nonsense really starts falling, so the people of this country can really show this government that we've absolutely had enough of this nonsense and that it's absolutely pointless. We've put up with this for 15 months as it is now. And now it must end ASAP.
 

brad465

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This particular comment on the FT site under an article about examination a partial relaxation on June 21st caught my eye, from a user who appears to have done some useful critical thinking and analysis about how this whole response has been handled. Note this is critical of individuals on "both sides", who they label "followers" and "sceptics", but is highly critical of the tactics, especially divisive ones, Johnson and co. have been using:


1623275151404.png
 

Freightmaster

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This particular comment on the FT site under an article about examination a partial relaxation on June 21st caught my eye, from a user who appears to have done some useful critical thinking and analysis about how this whole response has been handled.
I'm not sure how "useful" their comments are given that he/she has made them with the benefit of 15 months' worth of hindsight!

In addition, nowhere in the diatribe was an attempt made to give their esteemed opinion on what the government should have done,
rather than moaning about what they did/didn't do. It's blatantly nothing more than a thinly disguised anti-Tory rant. :rolleyes:




Note this is critical of individuals on "both sides", who they label "followers" and "sceptics",
I'm fairly certain that they really mean Conservative voting "followers" and Conservative voting "sceptics",
but he/she doesn't dare to say that...





MARK
 

yorksrob

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This particular comment on the FT site under an article about examination a partial relaxation on June 21st caught my eye, from a user who appears to have done some useful critical thinking and analysis about how this whole response has been handled. Note this is critical of individuals on "both sides", who they label "followers" and "sceptics", but is highly critical of the tactics, especially divisive ones, Johnson and co. have been using:


View attachment 97955

I think that opinion piece has its fair share of holes in it.

For starters, I've been firmly in the sceptic group, yet haven't been ignoring restrictions and I don't believe that most sceptics have been either.

We get the same scapegoating of eat out to help out, and bizarrely sporting events which were pretty heavily controlled in the summer.

Sounds like a disgruntled loctivist moaning to me.
 

kristiang85

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I think that opinion piece has its fair share of holes in it.

For starters, I've been firmly in the sceptic group, yet haven't been ignoring restrictions and I don't believe that most sceptics have been either.

We get the same scapegoating of eat out to help out, and bizarrely sporting events which were pretty heavily controlled in the summer.

Sounds like a disgruntled loctivist moaning to me.

Yep, I'm the same - although I will probably start dropping my compliance after June 21st, and most certainly after my second dose (and I know many who are similar, even people who strongly supported lockdowns).
 

Dent

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This particular comment on the FT site under an article about examination a partial relaxation on June 21st caught my eye, from a user who appears to have done some useful critical thinking and analysis about how this whole response has been handled.

I wouldn't really call that "useful critical thinking and analysis". It is basically the usual scapegoating of Eat Out to Help Out, and a sweeping ad hominem attack on "sceptics" littered with strawmen.
 

35B

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I wouldn't really call that "useful critical thinking and analysis". It is basically the usual scapegoating of Eat Out to Help Out, and a sweeping ad hominem attack on "sceptics" littered with strawmen.
I think the comment captures the "sceptics" quite well, but gives them disproportionate influence as a part of the population. What the author doesn't do is balance the roles of "sceptics" and "followers" as proportions of the population, or apply any nuance to their differing roles at different times in setting pandemic policy. I also suspect given the comment author's references to "authoritarianism" that they are themselves a sceptic, but of an anti-Boris, anti-Tory, anti-Brexit variety.
 

initiation

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A reminder that despite the media hype, current hospitalisations are lower than all the forecasts originally published by SAGE back when the roadmap was set out.
There is no reason why the 21st should be delayed however I fully expect it now will.
 

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MikeWM

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The vulnerable will all have had the opportunity to have been fully vaccinated by June 21st [1].

So, turning the question on its head, if not on June 21st, then when, and under what conditions?

Or are we going to continue with restrictions every time there is a surge in cases, in which case we'll probably be doing it forever? There's nothing else going to happen to improve matters - this is all we have.

This doesn't feel much like 'the vaccine being the route to freedom', does it?


[1] Presumably - that will be 16.5 weeks since I got the first text message inviting me to book an appointment, and I was in 'group 6'.
 

Nicholas Lewis

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A reminder that despite the media hype, current hospitalisations are lower than all the forecasts originally published by SAGE back when the roadmap was set out.
There is no reason why the 21st should be delayed however I fully expect it now will.
Covid 19 has been a boon for the media especially online papers to drive website views to keep advertising up so they just want to headlines to keep us interested. They will quickly switch horses if they see the pendulum swinging the other way and I would say that is beginning to happen with plenty of commentators pushing the point about how the vaccine has broken the link with hospitalisations. They expected case growth with step 3 but predictions were pre Delta variant so to have that in the mix as well and for the situation to be so positive is a testimony to govt actions over vaccines. Problem is Boris wants every step to be irreversible so he will worry about this more than anything else as his credability is on the line so i doubt we will get full release on 21st June now but suspect there will be some further minor adjustments so they can claim something out of it.
 

nlogax

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So, turning the question on its head, if not on June 21st, then when, and under what conditions?

Step four relies on

4. Is the government’s assessment of the risks fundamentally changed by new variants of concern?


Nebulous enough to be completely meaningless. Feels to me like it'll depend on someone in government getting out of bed from the wrong side on any given day.
 

Smidster

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As we stand today I think there has to be a short delay and we spend the next few weeks getting the numbers of "Double-Jabbed" up as much as possible (and give time for that protection to take effect). That sounds better than relaxing a few things on the 21st but leaving other things in place for a few extra weeks.

If we look at the Government's tests for releasing measures it seems fairly clear that we do not pass at least one of those:
  1. The vaccine deployment programme continues successfully
No Problems - Pass
  1. Evidence shows vaccines are sufficiently effective in reducing hospitalisations and deaths in those vaccinated
No Issue - Pass
  1. Infection rates do not risk a surge in hospitalisations which would put unsustainable pressure on the NHS
This feels touch and go but on balance think it is OK to pass - We do know that hospitalisations are increasing at the moment, albeit from very low levels and with less serious cases but it is trending in the wrong direction and the NHS is already stretched.
  1. The assessment of the risks is not fundamentally changed by new variants of concern.
To me we fail this test - There is clearly a VOC that is leading to large increases in some parts of the Country and it seems that we don't yet have enough people double-jabbed to provide enough protection against it.

I don't think it needs to be a long delay - Open up vaccine eligibility to all adults on June 21st and then look to release everything 4/5 weeks from then. But I would much rather than than have some things relaxed (e.g. weddings) but still have to deal with masks etc.
 

initiation

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we spend the next few weeks getting the numbers of "Double-Jabbed" up as much as possible (and give time for that protection to take effect)

If this is the reason then the government should have prioritised double jabbing rather than rolling out first doses down the age brackets (yes I know the AZ is not used in the younger cohort but plenty of older people had different jabs).

It started off as single dosing the vulnerable, then over 70s, then over 50s, now pushing all adults and/or double doses. As pointed out above, if not now, when? It will carry on with kids, then the inevitable booster shots by which time we will be back into winter and the NHS will be under 'enormous pressure' as it is every winter.

the NHS is already stretched.
Hospitalisations are >95% down from the peak. How in any way can that be described as Covid stretching the NHS?
 

Smidster

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Hospitalisations are >95% down from the peak. How in any way can that be described as Covid stretching the NHS?

It is stretched by the massive backlog of patients that couldn't be seen during Covid.

The point being that it doesn't take too many more people coming through the doors into already busy hospitals and you have knock-on impacts for other treatments.
 

35B

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Hospitalisations are >95% down from the peak. How in any way can that be described as Covid stretching the NHS?
I found watching "Hospital" on Tuesday night instructive about the costs to the NHS, and the stretch it is under to catch up.
 

MikeWM

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It is stretched by the massive backlog of patients that couldn't be seen during Covid.

The point being that it doesn't take too many more people coming through the doors into already busy hospitals and you have knock-on impacts for other treatments.

It sounds like we could do with some more capacity in the NHS. Just maybe we should have spent some of the hundreds of billions we've spent on furlough, useless track-and-trace, corrupt PPE contracts and continually testing well people, and added some capacity to the NHS instead?

(Yes, I know, you can't train a doctor or a nurse overnight. But this has been going on for 15 months now - I don't believe for a moment that we couldn't have mobilised some extra capacity by now if we'd actually tried. Instead, the only idea the Government appear to have in this area is to try to *lose* trained doctors and nurses, reducing capacity further, by making vaccinations mandatory to continue to do their job, which no doubt at least some will refuse to do.)
 

brad465

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It sounds like we could do with some more capacity in the NHS. Just maybe we should have spent some of the hundreds of billions we've spent on furlough, useless track-and-trace, corrupt PPE contracts and continually testing well people, and added some capacity to the NHS instead?

(Yes, I know, you can't train a doctor or a nurse overnight. But this has been going on for 15 months now - I don't believe for a moment that we couldn't have mobilised some extra capacity by now if we'd actually tried. Instead, the only idea the Government appear to have in this area is to try to *lose* trained doctors and nurses, reducing capacity further, by making vaccinations mandatory to continue to do their job, which no doubt at least some will refuse to do.)
Yes we need to move from short-term remedies to long term solutions: not only in the form of boosting NHS capacity, but also perhaps promoting and facilitating healthier lifestyles in areas where ailments are a preventable NHS burden (obesity in particular comes to mind). With regards to training more staff, what we also need to do is offer better pay and conditions to help encourage training and retention, I wouldn't be surprised if the cost of doing so is more affordable than the consequences of constantly having staff shortages and its wider economic effects.
 
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