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Covid restrictions to end on 19th July

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NorthKent1989

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You are not the only one. Having advocated a slight further delay to easing restrictions...

How many more delays can we sustain?

Over half the population is vaccinated, businesses are on their knees, mental health has taken a battering, enough is enough now no amount of extensions is going to make Covid go away, there’s no viable excuse for this extension, extending beyond July 19th is lunacy.
 
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greyman42

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One advantage I had in the cold spell in the winter was even if you were wearing one of the standard blue masks that were sold everywhere, it seemed to keep the cold air out of your lungs. I am sure there are those "in the know" who can explain why this was the case.
What is the problem with getting cold air in your lungs? I go out running in the middle of winter and it does not appear to of done me any harm.
 

MikeWM

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Presumably you don't have some sort of lung condition, asthma being the prime example.

Yes, cold *dry* air doesn't do my breathing any good at all. (Cold *damp* air isn't a problem however).

However, I have the same problem with warm *damp* air, so masks just make things worse. (Warm *dry* air isn't a problem either).
 

greyman42

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Given I have to visit medical establishments a lot I certainly hope that Masks and Social Distancing will be retained in these in environments if not they will certainly be getting complaints from me.
Given that you will have a FFP3 mask, you need not be concerned about your visits to medical establishments either way.
 

Domh245

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Not seen it mentioned here but Javid's been in the commons announcing the new rules around isolation

Double-jabbed contacts won’t need to self-isolate from 16 August, says Javid​

Close contacts of people in England who test positive will not have to self-isolate if they have had both jabs

Peter Walker
@peterwalker99
Tue 6 Jul 2021 13.01 BST

Close contacts of people in England who have tested positive for Covid will not have to self-isolate if they have received both their vaccinations, or if they are under 18, Sajid Javid has announced to the Commons.

The policy will come into force from 16 August. Adults will need to have had their second vaccination at least 10 days beforehand, the health secretary told MPs on Tuesday.

“We will soon be able to take a risk-based approach that recognises the huge benefits that the vaccines provide both to people who get the jab and their loved ones too,” Javid said.

People will, however, still be obliged to self-isolate as before if they test positive for Covid.

The end to self-isolation for those under 18, more details of which will be given by the education secretary, Gavin Williamson, later on Tuesday, comes after figures showed the number of children missing school in England because of Covid last week shot up by 66%, with 641,000 out of the classroom.

In another indication of his more bullish approach to reopening, Javid began his announcement by telling MPs that “freedom is in our sights once again” and that it was time to end top-down rules and rely more on “personal responsibility and common sense”.

The pace of vaccination had weakened the link between case numbers and hospitalisations and deaths, Javid said: “That protective wall mean that the odds have shifted in our favour and we can look afresh at many of the measures that we have had to put in place.”

Responding for Labour, the shadow health secretary, Jonathan Ashworth, said the protective wall “is only half-built”, saying this involved not only people who were not yet fully vaccinated but also emerging evidence from Israel that people with both vaccinations could still contract and transmit the virus.

Ashworth repeated Labour’s demand that the government reconsider the complete removal of all mandatory mask rules. Javid rejected this, saying that with the scale of vaccinations “you need to start moving away from these restrictions”.

The statement came a day after Boris Johnson announced the expected move towards almost no formal rules to combat Covid in England from 19 July, including the end of mandatory mask use and social distancing, or any restrictions in hospitality and entertainment venues.

In media interviews earlier in the day, Javid said the lifting of most lockdown rules could result in Covid infections rising above 100,000 a day over the summer, saying England would be entering “uncharted territory”.

Asked about government projections that infection rates were likely to reach 50,000 a day by 19 July, Javid accepted it was “fair to say” that even this figure could double or more. The highest daily infection rate for the UK recorded so far was just over 81,000, in late December.

“Because this is uncharted territory for any country in the world, as you go further out, week by week, the projections are even less reliable,” he said. “As we ease and go into the summer, we expect them to rise. They could go as high as 100,000. We want to be very straightforward about this in what we can expect in terms of case numbers. But what matters more than anything is hospitalisation and death numbers.”

Questioned about what this could mean for hospitalisation rates, which are at about 300 admissions a day in England, Javid said the government had “a number of models that we look at internally” about how this could progress, but declined to give any projections.

Gavinson has also confirmed the end of bubbles within school this afternoon
 

GodAtum

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i fear that some transport companies will still mandate mask wearing. Is that legal?
 

Cdd89

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If this thread shows anything it shows that there are many different attitudes to mask-wearing. To me this highlights the foolishness of the government telling everyone they can make their own mind up about whether to do so
Hmm, I come away with the opposite conclusion. Mask wearing is highly contextual and legislation can never cover the nuance of when they are more or less appropriate.

If given the choice, would you wear a mask in near-empty train carriages? If so, why? If not, why do you believe that the government should mandate it?
 

quantinghome

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It's clear from the government announcements over the last couple of days that a substantial amount of work has been done on estimating the scale of the exit wave. So why keep it under wraps? If they are expecting us to use our best judgement, surely we need to be presented with the data which has been used to justify the removal of restrictions?
 

PHILIPE

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For a while now, and especially with TFW, many punters are Tweeting on a daily basis and posting multiple pictures of overcrowded carriages with passengers standing all down the aisles and in doorways complaining also that very few people are wearing masks and feeling uncomfortable regarding the potential for catching COVID. Up until the arrival of the Delta variant which has put things into a different perspective there has been no evidence of mass spreading of COVID with infections remaining low. This can only serve to show that public transport is safe and that the removal of the need to wear masks may not make much difference
 
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Kilopylae

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Hmm, I come away with the opposite conclusion. Mask wearing is highly contextual and legislation can never cover the nuance of when they are more or less appropriate.
I take the same view. The fact that there are "many different attitudes to" something suggests that people ought to be free to choose; I certainly cannot see how people having different opinions "highlights the foolishness of the government telling everyone they can make their own mind up" unless, of course, you are an authoritarian, who wants the state to coercively force everyone to do the same thing regardless of their views.

It's clear from the government announcements over the last couple of days that a substantial amount of work has been done on estimating the scale of the exit wave. So why keep it under wraps? If they are expecting us to use our best judgement, surely we need to be presented with the data which has been used to justify the removal of restrictions?
Agree absolutely. From the start, the lack of transparency from government has been disgusting.
 

Bantamzen

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It's clear from the government announcements over the last couple of days that a substantial amount of work has been done on estimating the scale of the exit wave. So why keep it under wraps? If they are expecting us to use our best judgement, surely we need to be presented with the data which has been used to justify the removal of restrictions?

Because the forecasted infection rates model is a forecast? You don't present a forecast as actual data, especially not when certain sections of the media and members of the public will run off in the wrong direction with it. Well not unless you work with SAGE.

But as I'm sure you know, the number of infections isn't the only metric, nor the key one. Other metrics are showing that the link between infections, illness, hospitalisation and deaths has been reduced. So I'm sure you can make your mind up from there? If not, then as you were...
 

Kilopylae

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especially not when certain sections of the media and members of the public will run off in the wrong direction with it.
I can't stand this sort of paternalistic logic. "Don't let the public see the models we're using to make decisions about their lives, they might misunderstand..."
 

Bantamzen

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I can't stand this sort of paternalistic logic. "Don't let the public see the models we're using to make decisions about their lives, they might misunderstand..."

The problem with showing forecasts is you need to understand all the variables within them. Just presenting them raw & without context will mislead the public more than not showing them at all, especially when those using the models have recently admitted that some assumptions within them are flawed.

What the public needs to know is are the vaccines proving effective against illness, and they are, this shows in the data. Forecasts of what may, or may not happen are not helpful to the public. Next you'll be wanting forecasts for variants that are yet to exist. Anyway SAGE haven't been shy in coming forward with their worst case scenarios in the past, I'm sure if you looked you'd find them.
 

quantinghome

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Because the forecasted infection rates model is a forecast? You don't present a forecast as actual data, especially not when certain sections of the media and members of the public will run off in the wrong direction with it. Well not unless you work with SAGE.

But as I'm sure you know, the number of infections isn't the only metric, nor the key one. Other metrics are showing that the link between infections, illness, hospitalisation and deaths has been reduced. So I'm sure you can make your mind up from there? If not, then as you were...
I agree hospitalisations and deaths are a more important than cases now that vaccines have substantially weakened the link. So it's strange that the government is stating forecasts of cases in public (Health SoS saying they could go up to 100,000 per day) but not hospitalisations or deaths. Seems really ill thought out if they are trying to reassure the public.

We also know they have done research on when to best open up, and I can see there's a decent argument for doing this over the summer rather than waiting for autumn. But again, why not present the information they've based this on? If they want us to get used to living with Covid they need to be explaining that there will be an exit wave and saying what sort of hospitalisation and death numbers we should be expecting to live with.
 

bramling

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I don't think anyone in the UK is pushing for zero covid now. Ignoring an extremely tiny but vocal minority on social media of course.

I think there are people who are simply pushing the goal posts to the right every time we reach a decision point. First it was until the vulnerable are vaccinated, then it seems to be until everyone is vaccinated, now there’s some people who seem to think never, no doubt there will be some saying wait until boosters have been given out. At some point we have to bite the bullet.
I agree hospitalisations and deaths are a more important than cases now that vaccines have substantially weakened the link. So it's strange that the government is stating forecasts of cases in public (Health SoS saying they could go up to 100,000 per day) but not hospitalisations or deaths. Seems really ill thought out if they are trying to reassure the public.

We also know they have done research on when to best open up, and I can see there's a decent argument for doing this over the summer rather than waiting for autumn. But again, why not present the information they've based this on? If they want us to get used to living with Covid they need to be explaining that there will be an exit wave and saying what sort of hospitalisation and death numbers we should be expecting to live with.

It does seem to be the case that the position is there *will* be an exit wave whatever happens, and it’s better to have it now rather than in the autumn / winter, and not coinciding with when the schools return in September. They possibly need to articulate this better though.
 

GodAtum

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Any establishment that tries to mandate mask wearing when the restrictions are lifted will be totally boycotted by me and I will send them a letter to ensure they know they are being boycotted. If everyone does likewise then companies will soon learn that it's detrimental to their business to try and enforce draconian restrictions.
 

quantinghome

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It does seem to be the case that the position is there *will* be an exit wave whatever happens, and it’s better to have it now rather than in the autumn / winter, and not coinciding with when the schools return in September. They possibly need to articulate this better though.
Exactly. Given the strategy they've adopted it would be better to explain that an exit wave will happen (or is currently underway) and roughly what the size of it will be. Then when it happens they can say it's in line with predictions and would have been higher had we waited longer.
 

Bantamzen

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I agree hospitalisations and deaths are a more important than cases now that vaccines have substantially weakened the link. So it's strange that the government is stating forecasts of cases in public (Health SoS saying they could go up to 100,000 per day) but not hospitalisations or deaths. Seems really ill thought out if they are trying to reassure the public.

Its a clumsy way to say to the public that whilst infection rates may go up, it is no longer a concern as the NHS can cope with the number expected to need their assitance. It isn't the best way I agree, but pushing out scary looking forecasts will not help people make up their minds.

We also know they have done research on when to best open up, and I can see there's a decent argument for doing this over the summer rather than waiting for autumn. But again, why not present the information they've based this on? If they want us to get used to living with Covid they need to be explaining that there will be an exit wave and saying what sort of hospitalisation and death numbers we should be expecting to live with.

I suspect this is heralding the beginning of the end of daily updates, dashboards and a seemingly never ending stream of data pushed out through gov.uk and the media. Again its a clumsy way to do it, but don't forget who are in charge. And also covid is not the only problem in play, you may have noticed the warning signals going up from the Office of Budgetary Responsibilities warning that public debt is approaching its worse situation in over 50 years, and there still big holes in the finances going forward.
 

Mintona

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37 deaths today and a scary new variant in the media. I can’t see this the release going ahead in July.
 

Bayum

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I’m slightly concerned for a number of reasons.
This closing of bubbles in schools - it’s been and continues to be a nightmare for teaching staff but a very local example has demonstrated exactly how important it is for students to isolate. At the beginning of week 1, one staff member tested positive. By the end of week 2, this had grown to 80+ cases across the school, which was then promptly shut down by PHE. We are still seeing the spillover in primary as our younger siblings have had positive cases or parents have been testing positive at various points throughout the 10-day self isolation period. It’s scary to think you can have such a close group of contacts, which in itself is a relatively unique situation, where cases can increase in the space of ten days to a point where action has to be taken to prevent the spread further.

I’m not convinced we have all the data available to us. Yes, we have seen so far that deaths and hospitalisation have stayed low but is this due to vaccine? Is it due to severe disease taking longer to progress than previously? From discussions with my hospital consultant, studies in those with compromised immune systems are showing a lot of data to suggest that a large proportion of the vaccinated groups aren’t producing enough of an antibody response to two doses of vaccine - a third hasn’t been looked at yet. Is the plan to effectively put this group into shielding by stealth by allowing numbers to rise astronomically in the general population?
I still think there’s a lot of unknowns but Boris’s mentality seems to be - “Let the peasants suffer and I will watch from my ivory tower”.
 

quantinghome

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Again its a clumsy way to do it, but don't forget who are in charge.
There is that. Whatever you think of NZ's Covid policy, Jacinda Ardern at least had the sense and communication skills to present her reasoning to her country in a way that treated people as grown ups.
 

Dent

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I’m not convinced we have all the data available to us. Yes, we have seen so far that deaths and hospitalisation have stayed low but is this due to vaccine? Is it due to severe disease taking longer to progress than previously? From discussions with my hospital consultant, studies in those with compromised immune systems are showing a lot of data to suggest that a large proportion of the vaccinated groups aren’t producing enough of an antibody response to two doses of vaccine - a third hasn’t been looked at yet. Is the plan to effectively put this group into shielding by stealth by allowing numbers to rise astronomically in the general population?
I still think there’s a lot of unknowns but Boris’s mentality seems to be - “Let the peasants suffer and I will watch from my ivory tower”.

Please clarify what solution you are proposing?

The release has already been delayed and delayed repeatedly to the point that any further delay would push the exit wave into winter when the health service is already under strain, as well as devastating the hospitality industry during its peak season yet again, and trashing the only opportunity in the whole year for families with children in school to have a summer holiday.
 

Bantamzen

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I’m slightly concerned for a number of reasons.
This closing of bubbles in schools - it’s been and continues to be a nightmare for teaching staff but a very local example has demonstrated exactly how important it is for students to isolate. At the beginning of week 1, one staff member tested positive. By the end of week 2, this had grown to 80+ cases across the school, which was then promptly shut down by PHE. We are still seeing the spillover in primary as our younger siblings have had positive cases or parents have been testing positive at various points throughout the 10-day self isolation period. It’s scary to think you can have such a close group of contacts, which in itself is a relatively unique situation, where cases can increase in the space of ten days to a point where action has to be taken to prevent the spread further.

I’m not convinced we have all the data available to us. Yes, we have seen so far that deaths and hospitalisation have stayed low but is this due to vaccine? Is it due to severe disease taking longer to progress than previously? From discussions with my hospital consultant, studies in those with compromised immune systems are showing a lot of data to suggest that a large proportion of the vaccinated groups aren’t producing enough of an antibody response to two doses of vaccine - a third hasn’t been looked at yet. Is the plan to effectively put this group into shielding by stealth by allowing numbers to rise astronomically in the general population?
I still think there’s a lot of unknowns but Boris’s mentality seems to be - “Let the peasants suffer and I will watch from my ivory tower”.

I think we can safely say the vaccines are having a positive effect. Now to flip this round, what if the government did u-turn and say despite the vaccine showing great progress we are going to ignore that and carry on with restrictions. There's been a marked downturn in vaccinations in the last few days, so would a move like this make people think "why are we bothering" and stall the final stages of the programme. You would certainly lose support for a third dose even for the vulnerable in the space of a year doing that.

We are coming to the end of restrictions, its time to live with that instead of trying to imagine scenarios to keep them going.

There is that. Whatever you think of NZ's Covid policy, Jacinda Ardern at least had the sense and communication skills to present her reasoning to her country in a way that treated people as grown ups.

Its just a shame they called it wrong in NZ, and are stuck in a cycle of on/off restrictions for the foreseeable without an exit strategy.
 

MikeWM

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Any establishment that tries to mandate mask wearing when the restrictions are lifted will be totally boycotted by me and I will send them a letter to ensure they know they are being boycotted. If everyone does likewise then companies will soon learn that it's detrimental to their business to try and enforce draconian restrictions.

Most businesses will eventually do the best thing for their bottom line (despite all the nauseating announcements about 'your safety is our top priority' over the past year; no, it's all about getting your hands on our money). Trying to enforce mask wearing takes effort and expense, and creates conflict situations - I suspect very few will want that. But I agree that for any business that does, it is important to let them know why.

On a related note, I see that a number of places that went 'no cash' before lockdown 1 have recently started taking cash again. (HMV for example - they still *recommend* card payment, but their 'no cash' signs seem to have vanished).
 

bramling

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I'm afraid I'm in the "believe it when I see it" camp on this. Unfortunately when we see stuff like schools being closed after one day, or the debacle over Christmas, anything is possible. Unfortunately, I do sense that the media mood is largely negative - which means Boris needs to hold his nerve, meanwhile we wait to see what the devolved powers will do... Sturgeon is bound to see if she can find a "Scotland would be okay if it wasn't for England / The Tories / Boris" policy, and NI tends to align to RO, so a lot perhaps depends on what Drakeford decides to do.
 
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