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Inflation crisis: Due to various factors including war in Ukraine and Covid-19.

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Starmill

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I know there are good reasons why CO2 emissions from cars and central heating flue pipes can't be turned into CO2 suitable for use in food processing, but I was just commenting on the irony of a shortage of CO2 while we are all being told to cut CO2 emissions.
It's not ironic though. There must be some reversal of expectations for there to be irony, and most people quite correctly don't associate industrial uses of compressed carbon dioxide gas with the emissions which cause the effects of climate change.

Of course, if you just resent decarbonisation for your own separate reasons (as people who call young girls names on the internet frequently do), then that's another matter.

The other key thing to note here is if we'd decarbonised our electricity supply more quickly, as some of us have been calling for for years, we wouldn't need so much natural gas to meet domestic electricity demand.
 
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Starmill

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Before Brexit we were part of the internal EU energy market meaning prices within member states could be spread out and have a more balanced price regardless of outside fluctuations. Now we aren't and we're paying top dollar, fertiliser companies here cannot make it work at these prices so Brexit does has a part to play in it.

Yes the way I've seen it explained is that the current energy issues haven't been caused by Brexit but that Brexit has made their impact worse than it would otherwise be (for the reason you outline).

Exactly. The decision to exit the single market in full (rather than just Brexit per se) is responsible for making trading energy more difficult - along with just about anything else that's traded. Almost all of these extra costs end up being dumped on consumers in the long run.
 

brad465

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Relax everyone, Johnson has told us all not to worry about food and fuel shortages this winter:


Boris Johnson has urged people not to worry about putting food on the table this winter, amid surging energy prices and a cut to universal credit.
The prime minister told BBC News: "I don't believe people will be short of food - and wages are actually rising."
It comes after Business Secretary Kwasi Kwarteng warned some households face a "very difficult winter".
Energy and food bills are rising due to a spike in global gas prices - and many families face a £20-a-week benefit cut.
Speaking to the BBC in New York, where he has been meeting world leaders at the United Nations, Mr Johnson said the surge in energy prices was a "short-term" problem caused by "the global economy coming back to life" after the coronavirus pandemic.

"We are talking to the energy companies - doing what we can to keep prices low, to make sure that the supermarket shelves aren't empty," he said.
He said the global energy markets will "rectify themselves" in the long term, and it showed the UK was right to be moving to renewable energy.
The government is poised to step in to tackle the gas price crisis and carbon dioxide shortage, with Mr Kwarteng telling the BBC that lending money to bigger firms to help them take on customers whose energy providers had gone bust.
He also said the government could subsidise the country's biggest carbon dioxide producer to bolster supplies.
Carbon dioxide is essential to the frozen food industry and the shortage has raised fears of more gaps in grocery supplies.

(In other words, get ready for Winter of Discontent 2)
 

yorksrob

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I don't know.

If we can still meet eachother and make merry, it might still be a lot more content than last winter.

Start to stockpile tinned food, coal and candles.

I already have my special power cut candle that I haven't lit for the last ten years.
 

yorksrob

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BUT WHAT IF THE BEER RUNS OUT???????????????????

Edit: Handpull will be ok. Phew.

That said, if all the nitro-keg beer runs out, will there be enough handpull to cover the deficit !

If not, we'll have to hit the cider (then the spirits)....
 
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Before Brexit we were part of the internal EU energy market meaning prices within member states could be spread out and have a more balanced price regardless of outside fluctuations. …….

Genuine question.
So why is there a wide disparity in energy prices, between EU member states?
For example, domestic retail electricity prices in the Netherlands, Hungary and the Baltic states, average between 10 and 15 cents per kwh, but in Germany, Belgium, Denmark and Ireland, are over 25 cents per kwh, more than double in many cases.
Domestic gas prices have similar wide disparities across the 27.

German newspapers are reporting wholesale electricity prices in German, have risen by almost 50% this month alone.
Plus, the price of natural gas across Europe has quadrupled since the start of this year. I’m not sure that can be “spread out” or result in a “more balanced price”. Everybody is copping it.
 
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duncanp

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The Telegraph is reporting that energy companies are indulging in sharp practices by hiding standard variable tarriff deals (which are subject to the energy price cap) on their websites, and promoting fixed price deals where the tarriff is higher than the cap, and the fixed price term is for several years.

So, a warning to anyone who is thinking of shopping around for a cheaper deal.

It is rather like the situation with rail fares, some of which are regulated by the government, and some of which are not regulated. Imagine if a TOC was to increase its advance fares to higher than a standard open return, and agressively promote these advance fares, whilst making it as difficult as possible to buy a flexible multi operator ticket.


Desperate energy firms push deals that charge hundreds more than the price cap​

Providers hoping panic over prices will see customers buy multi-year deals at higher costs

Energy customers could be unwittingly locking themselves into contracts that cost hundreds of pounds more a year after providers removed default tariffs from their websites and hiked the cost of fixed-priced deals.

Experts said the move to hide cheaper offers protected by Government cap, and tie customers down to some of the most expensive energy contracts in history, was "very questionable" behaviour.

Customers move on to default prices, also known as standard variable tariffs, when their fixed-term contract ends. Standard rates have historically been more expensive but suppliers are capped on how much they can charge by Ofgem, the regulator.

Given the ongoing energy crisis, some providers have stopped listing standard tariffs on their websites and instead promoted new fixed-priced deals that last multiple years and cost hundreds of pounds more each year.

Homeowners looking to protect themselves from the market volatility by locking in prices could therefore unknowingly end up with a much higher bill than if they took no action at all.

Mike Foster of the Energy and Utilities Alliance, a trade body, said: “This behaviour leaves a great deal to be desired. Questions should be asked providers and the Government, that encouraged competition as the best way of keeping down bills."

The energy price cap will be £1,277 from October 1, rising £139 from the current level, but still substantially below some providers' fixed-priced deals. The cap only applies to a provider's SVT. It can charge any rate on fixed-priced deals that customers actively choose.

British Gas is promoting three deals, the most expensive of which costs £1,982 per year for a two-bedroom house in Surrey – £844 higher than the price cap. It also locks the household into the contract for one year.

Scottish Power also quoted three fixed tariffs, the most expensive of which was also £1,970, a one year contract with a £60 cancellation fee. British Gas and Scottish Power did not comment by the time of publication.

The issue is not limited to larger suppliers. For a four bedroom home in West London, on an electricity-only Economy 7 meter, So Energy quoted a fixed rate deal of £2,169 a year. A spokesman said: "This is not unique to So Energy, due to the unprecedented market-wide conditions we are seeing at the moment."

Outfox the Market quoted a fixed-term deal costing £2,235, some £1,097 more per year than the price cap. The firm could not be reached for comment.

Customers could potentially save money over the long run by locking into a higher priced deal, as the regulator's cap is reviewed every six months. Analysts at HSBC have warned that the rise in wholesale gas prices could push the cap up to £1,468 by February, a £192 increase.

However, it would have to climb £514 higher before any of the British Gas or Scottish Power's contacts saved customers money.

Energy firms have lobbied the Government to scrap the price cap, as many face collapse amid spiraling wholesale energy costs. Business Secretary Kwasi Kwarteng insisted the cap "will remain in place", assuring consumers that their bills would not rise as a result of the gas crisis.

Other providers have not taken such action. SSE temporarily suspended all of its deals while EDF quoted a fixed-term tariff below the price cap, at £784. Eon Next quoted its default tariff for electricity only, but lower than the price cap, at £713.
 

Typhoon

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The Telegraph is reporting that energy companies are indulging in sharp practices by hiding standard variable tarriff deals (which are subject to the energy price cap) on their websites, and promoting fixed price deals where the tarriff is higher than the cap, and the fixed price term is for several years.

So, a warning to anyone who is thinking of shopping around for a cheaper deal.

It is rather like the situation with rail fares, some of which are regulated by the government, and some of which are not regulated. Imagine if a TOC was to increase its advance fares to higher than a standard open return, and agressively promote these advance fares, whilst making it as difficult as possible to buy a flexible multi operator ticket.

They are probably factoring in the expected large increase in the cap next April predicted by the likes of Joe Malinowski of the Energy Shop (on R4s Money Box).
 

yorksrob

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It seems that 60% of the countries CO2 production has been controlled by one multinational that has chosen to shut off production to suit its owners. This aspect of the crisis has therefore clearly been caused by unfettered global free market ideology. One might ask "where has the competitions and markets authority been in all of this ?"

Future policy on the production of such a vital commodity clearly needs to be far more heavily regulated in future.
 

Starmill

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It seems that 60% of the countries CO2 production has been controlled by one multinational that has chosen to shut off production to suit its owners. This aspect of the crisis has therefore clearly been caused by unfettered global free market ideology. One might ask "where has the competitions and markets authority been in all of this ?"

Future policy on the production of such a vital commodity clearly needs to be far more heavily regulated in future.
Apparently the then Competition Commission investigated the merger that led to this state of affairs in 2007. It's unclear to me however what their conclusions were.
 

yorksrob

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Apparently the then Competition Commission investigated the merger that led to this state of affairs in 2007. It's unclear to me however what their conclusions were.

That's interesting.

There are certainly questions to answer. What was the outcome and was it supressed !
 

DelayRepay

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Apparently the then Competition Commission investigated the merger that led to this state of affairs in 2007. It's unclear to me however what their conclusions were.
Is it this?


To address the lessening of competition in the CO2 market, Kemira will be required to make detailed commitments in relation to its existing supply contract with a third party supplier of carbon dioxide, Air Liquide, in order to preserve this source of supply.

Now the tax payer is subsidising the production of CO2. I guess too much time has passed to do anything else. Wonder which Tory MP this company's CEO is friendly with?
 

devon_metro

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Before Brexit we were part of the internal EU energy market meaning prices within member states could be spread out and have a more balanced price regardless of outside fluctuations. Now we aren't and we're paying top dollar, fertiliser companies here cannot make it work at these prices so Brexit does has a part to play in it.

This isn't true for gas. There are gas trading hubs at NBP (UK) and TTF (Netherlands) which set the prices. Both are trading at more or less the same levels. EU member states are responsible for sourcing their own gas e.g. Germany is mostly reliant on Russian supplies, whereas the UK has a large domestic supply and its largest import source is Norway. It's unfortunate in this case that domestic supply is priced at NBP, which closely tracks the global gas market. The gas issue is very much global. There are some minor impacts on the UK electricity market due to Brexit, but the sky high prices are mostly caused by system stress (difference between supply/demand), an element of gaming of the system by market partipants, low wind/nuclear output and the aforementioned high gas/coal/carbon prices.
 

Starmill

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This isn't true for gas. There are gas trading hubs at NBP (UK) and TTF (Netherlands) which set the prices. Both are trading at more or less the same levels. EU member states are responsible for sourcing their own gas e.g. Germany is mostly reliant on Russian supplies, whereas the UK has a large domestic supply and its largest import source is Norway. It's unfortunate in this case that domestic supply is priced at NBP, which closely tracks the global gas market. The gas issue is very much global. There are some minor impacts on the UK electricity market due to Brexit, but the sky high prices are mostly caused by system stress (difference between supply/demand), an element of gaming of the system by market partipants, low wind/nuclear output and the aforementioned high gas/coal/carbon prices.
I think the point that was being made was the impact of gas price rises on Britain's electricity supply, which depends too heavily on natural gas since the mass shutdown of coal here, and the slow growth in renewables.
 

yorksrob

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Our comparative lack of gas storage capacity compared to other countries will also be causing volatility. I learnt on the radio today that we closed a big chunk of gas storage in 2017, in spite of continual issues of having so little (around nine days worth, compared to ninety in France, as an example). The thought was that we "could always buy some from somewhere" if we needed it.
 

birchesgreen

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Our comparative lack of gas storage capacity compared to other countries will also be causing volatility. I learnt on the radio today that we closed a big chunk of gas storage in 2017, in spite of continual issues of having so little (around nine days worth, compared to ninety in France, as an example). The thought was that we "could always buy some from somewhere" if we needed it.
The "market" always magically provides what is needed remember.
 

Typhoon

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The "market" always magically provides what is needed remember.
Worked for PPE didn't it?

Actually, they are probably not wrong, it is just a question of how stuffed your wallet is and how fussy you are - there is probably some bloke called Vladimir on the phone at this very minute. 'Where did we get it from, you don't want to know. Is it genuine? Do you want it or not?'

If it isn't Vladimir, it will be some bloke from Peckham with a cushty deal.
 

brad465

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Our comparative lack of gas storage capacity compared to other countries will also be causing volatility. I learnt on the radio today that we closed a big chunk of gas storage in 2017, in spite of continual issues of having so little (around nine days worth, compared to ninety in France, as an example). The thought was that we "could always buy some from somewhere" if we needed it.
That is really stupid thinking on our part, especially as we knew Brexit was going to happen at this point and its associated risks. It would make sense if a surge of alternative energy sources came online at the same time, but that doesn't appear to be the case here with that thought.
 

skyhigh

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Our comparative lack of gas storage capacity compared to other countries will also be causing volatility. I learnt on the radio today that we closed a big chunk of gas storage in 2017, in spite of continual issues of having so little (around nine days worth, compared to ninety in France, as an example). The thought was that we "could always buy some from somewhere" if we needed it.
Not only was it closed, but they're still demolishing the assets. The gas tower on the Armley Gyratory at Leeds was only demolished in the last few months. I can think of plenty of other sites that have come down in the last 18 months or so too.
 

brad465

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The Bank of England has released it's latest verdict on the inflation situation, and they expect inflation to reach 4% this winter, and have kept interest rates at 0.1%:


UK inflation is expected to rise above 4% by the end of the year, fuelled by rising energy costs, the Bank of England has warned.
The Bank also said that there were signs the supply chain crisis was starting to hamper the economic recovery, and revised down its growth forecast for the third quarter by 1%.
It came as the Bank's Monetary Policy Committee held interest rates at 0.1%
Despite the inflation forecast a rate rise was not yet needed, the MPC said.
Factors driving higher inflation were still expected to moderate next year, the policymakers said.
Supply constraints were hitting recovery and there are signs "cost pressures may prove more persistent."
The Bank said that supply constraints were "evident in surveys showing historically lengthy supplier delivery times and backlogs of work, significant material and labour shortages in a number of sectors, and lower levels of inventories".
Developments over the past month have "strengthened" the case made in August that some tightening of monetary policy could be necessary to meet the central bank's 2% inflation target sustainably in the medium term, policymakers said.
The MPC added that "considerable uncertainties remain". It said Consumer Prices Index inflation, currently at 3.2%, could remain above 4% into the second quarter of next year.

There's no sign of this inflation spell being "transitionary", as they've previously described it, and they've managed to dig themselves into a hole with their loose monetary policy for over a decade, where any raise in interest rates risks bringing the house of cards crashing down, in terms of housing and market values. Raising rates is normally how they try to control inflation, but it's clear the Bank's remit isn't about controlling inflation anymore, but about keeping the house of cards intact.
 

yorksrob

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Whilst the traditional response to inflation has been to increase interest rates, is difficult to see this having much of a positive effect where the inflation is being caused by external factors. Dampening the domestic economy would likely extend the agony.
 
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The Bank of England has released it's latest verdict on the inflation situation, and they expect inflation to reach 4% this winter, and have kept interest rates at 0.1%:

We are not alone....

Reuters - Berlin - Aug 30th

German inflation hits fresh 13-year high in August​

Germany's annual consumer price inflation accelerated to a fresh 13-year high in August, data showed on Monday, underlining growing price pressures as Europe's largest economy recovers from the pandemic and companies struggle with supply shortages.
The national inflation rate (CPI) even soared to 3.9% in August, hitting its highest since December 1993 when the economy boomed following German reunification.
"This is due to higher energy and food prices,........" Commerzbank analyst Ralph Solveen said.
 

simonw

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Not only was it closed, but they're still demolishing the assets. The gas tower on the Armley Gyratory at Leeds was only demolished in the last few months. I can think of plenty of other sites that have come down in the last 18 months or so too.
Gas storage in the form of holders is mainly there to provide for diurnal (within day) swings in usage. It has little or no value in the current situation.
 
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