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Brexit matters

edwin_m

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If a Brexit agreement was put to the people in a referendum; why would they reject it to remain in the EU? 52% probably wouldn't.
For reasons explained ad nauseam, some people would have seen through the deceit of the Leave campaign and some would not have liked the actual form of Brexit that was settled on. Also a couple of million older (and more likely Leave) voters had died off and younger (and more likely Remain) voters had joined the electorate.
Merely an observation.

As I recall, two years after the referendum there was a General Election, which I don't think was marked by a majority (or anywhere close) voting for parties that were anti-Brexit. This 'plenty of evidence' was where exactly?
2019: Conservatives plus Brexit party 45.6%. Labour plus LibDem plus SNP plus Green 52.3%. Agreed Labour's position was ambiguous (again illustrating the problem of treating a general election as a referendum) but they were ultimately in favour of some form of second referendum.

Evidence: https://whatukthinks.org/eu/questions/if-a-second-eu-referendum-were-held-today-how-would-you-vote/

You may well respond that that's only opinion polls, but that's because the government refused to consider a second referendum.
 
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RT4038

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The looming deadline that Britain could have extended, had it wished? That one?
I am merely pointing out that, from the view of a Brexiteer, there was only a small window of opportunity to get Brexit done. The window would have probably closed after any deadline was extended.
I any case I can't see how the circumstances of the negotiation excuse negotiating in bad faith. You're saying, if I understand correctly, that Britain just agreed to whatever set of conditions seemed vaguely somewhat acceptable with the full and certain intention of reneging on them later because the alternative in the moment was no agreement, yes?

I suspect that. Reneging is a bit strong. Re-negotiation when the hand is stronger more like.

Accepted the Irish Sea border. That or I would have dumped a breathtakingly immense mountain of cash out the front of Leinster House
in Dublin, promised the same again every year for the next ten years, guaranteed the availability of British citizenship by descent to any child born to at least one British citizen parent in the six counties for the next twenty years, and sanctioned a border poll in which my government and I campaigned ceaselessly for a yes vote.
I did ask from the point of view of someone who wanted 'real' Brexit. Good luck on getting 'real' Brexit in less than 300 years. If you wanted real Brexit you would definitely not go down this route.

The trouble with treating any General Election as a single-issue plebiscite is that you can't actually separate voting intent for that one single issue from all the other combined intents.

My recollection is also that the post-referendum GEs were respectively one and three-and-a-half years subsequent, not two, and further I would suggest that if there was any one issue that could perhaps have been a plebiscite topic at either of those General Elections it's much more likely to have been Jeremy Corbyn, rather than the European Union.
You are right, but it did show that anti-Brexit was not such an important part of the electorates priorities.
 

GusB

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I suspect that. Reneging is a bit strong. Re-negotiation when the hand is stronger more like.
Reneging is exactly what the intention was, it would seem:


Dominic Cummings says UK always intended to ditch NI protocol | Brexit

Wed 13 Oct 2021 14.55 BST
The UK government always intended to “ditch” the Northern Ireland protocol, Boris Johnson’s former adviser Dominic Cummings has claimed.

In a string of tweets, Cummings said the flawed Brexit deal had been a way to get out of the electoral doldrums and “whack [Jeremy] Corbyn”, and “of course” the government should be allowed to “sometimes break deals… like every other state does”.

His remarks have caused alarm in Dublin, where the former taoiseach Leo Varadkar, who negotiated the Northern Ireland protocol with Johnson at a meeting in Wirral in October 2019, said that, if true, they showed the government could not be trusted.

“Those comments are very alarming because that would indicate that this is a government administration that acted in bad faith,” Varadkar told RTÉ. “And that message needs to be heard around the world, because if the British government doesn’t honour its agreements, doesn’t adhere to treaties it signs, that must apply to everyone else too.

“So at the moment they’re going around the world they are trying to negotiate new trade agreements. The message must go out to all countries around the world that this is a British government that doesn’t necessarily keep its word, doesn’t necessarily honour the agreements it makes.”

What a complete and utter shambles. It's embarrassing, and certainly puts us in good stead for making new trade agreements with other countries(!) Don't worry if there's a bit of the agreement that we don't really like, we'll agree to it now to get it over the line and we'll go back on our word later.

I did ask from the point of view of someone who wanted 'real' Brexit. Good luck on getting 'real' Brexit in less than 300 years. If you wanted real Brexit you would definitely not go down this

What is "real" Brexit? We were asked whether we wanted to leave or remain in the EU. Nowhere on the ballot paper did it mention real, slightly faux, totally fake or any other kind of Brexit.
 

RT4038

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Reneging is exactly what the intention was, it would seem:


What a complete and utter shambles. It's embarrassing, and certainly puts us in good stead for making new trade agreements with other countries(!) Don't worry if there's a bit of the agreement that we don't really like, we'll agree to it now to get it over the line and we'll go back on our word later.
So Dominic Cummings says, no doubt trying to embarass his ex-boss as much as possible. I would take any of his utterances with the same pinch of salt as that of the Barnard Castle escapade. Renegotiate immediately on the grounds of impracticality I would certainly believe. After all, it was obvious to anyone that the Irish Sea border was not going to be liked by one of the NI factions (and therefore unlikely to be deliverable on the ground) but this was not going to be allowed to delay Brexit and therefore miss the small window of opportunity to get it done.
What is "real" Brexit? We were asked whether we wanted to leave or remain in the EU. Nowhere on the ballot paper did it mention real, slightly faux, totally fake or any other kind of Brexit.
This is politics, right? Referenda do not usually come with pages of context and detail on the ballot paper. The electorate do have to read between the lines, and consider the implications. Did anybody really think that all this effort of referendum and politicking was about leaving the EU but remaining in the Single Market / Customs Union and subject to EU rules and jurisdiction? Really? Surely not. Buyer beware and all that.

Those who wanted 'real' Brexit outmanoeuvered the others.
 
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birchesgreen

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So Dominic Cummings says, no doubt trying to embarass his ex-boss as much as possible.
Backed up by Ian Paisley Jr, whether he is any more truthworthy of course...


The Democratic Unionist party MP made the comments on BBC’s Newsnight just hours after the prime minister’s former adviser Dominic Cummings claimed it was always the intention to sign the withdrawal agreement in January 2020 but “ditch bits” they did not like in the protocol.
 

RT4038

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Backed up by Ian Paisley Jr, whether he is any more truthworthy of course...

I am sure there is more than a grain of truth in it, whichever emotive word is used to describe (Ditch. Renege. Renegotiate). However, it is obvious why that course of action has been taken, unless someone else can come up with an alternative method of achieving 'real' Brexit in the small window of opportunity that existed.
 

jon0844

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Dominic clearly had a job to do to steer Boris, a task now seemingly taken over by his (Boris) wife. Frankly, Boris doesn't seem capable of making his own decisions on anything and needs to be 'controlled'.

I strongly believe Dominic knows where all the bodies are buried, has saved all WhatsApp conversations, recorded phone conversations and maybe even filmed things.

As a result, while you clearly cannot trust him due his agenda, I do believe he will lie and tell the truth as required. That's what makes him so dangerous, along with everyone else who is playing some sort of long game.
 

AlterEgo

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brad465

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Another botched u-turn on post-brexit immigration policy:


The government is to allow 800 foreign abattoir workers into the UK on temporary visas, after warnings from farmers of mass culls.

It previously said businesses should pay higher wages and invest in skills.

The shortage of butchers has already seen farmers destroy 6,600 healthy pigs due to a backlog on farms, the National Pig Association (NPA) said.

The meat industry blames the butcher shortage on factors including Covid and Brexit.

Thousands of healthy pigs have been culled since last week, when the tally was about 600.

Last week, the National Farmer's Union (NFU) warned that pig farmers were "facing a human disaster" due to the shortage of butchers.

It said that "empty retail shelves and product shortages are becoming increasingly commonplace and Christmas specialities such as pigs in blankets are already under threat".
 

XAM2175

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I did ask from the point of view of someone who wanted 'real' Brexit. Good luck on getting 'real' Brexit in less than 300 years. If you wanted real Brexit you would definitely not go down this route.

You asked how I'd deliver said "real" Brexit and I gave you the best answer I could come up with - which is hard, given that I'm not a shapeshifting creep and all that. In my view the options are simple: you either remove Brexit from Northern Ireland (with an Irish Sea border, on the basis that the rest of the UK gets the full "realness"), or you remove Northern Ireland from the UK (with reunification).

In other news, yet another u-turn:


Foreign lorry drivers will be able to make an unlimited number of pick-ups and drop-offs in a fixed period in the UK under changes to rules proposed by the government to prevent shortages of products in the run-up to Christmas and into the new year.

On Thursday, ministers announced a consultation on a plan to increase deliveries in the UK by temporarily changing so-called “cabotage” rules, which govern how many trips foreign transport firms can make within another country.

Currently, hauliers from the EU can only pick up and drop off goods in the UK twice in a seven-day period, but the proposals would allow them to make an unlimited number of deliveries across two weeks.

If approved, the plans would come into force before the end of the year and last for six months.

But lorry drivers reacted strongly against the move, saying “we don’t want cabotage to sabotage our industry”.

The lorry driver shortage in the UK – caused by the effects of Brexit, the pandemic and other factors – has affected petrol stations, supermarkets and has led to containers stacked up at Felixstowe port unable to be moved.

The transport secretary, Grant Shapps, said the effect of the proposed change to cabotage rules was the “equivalent of adding thousands of extra lorry drivers to the road, but we don’t have to do anything with visas in order to do this”.

He told Sky News: “It’s a straightforward measure. It’ll come in towards the end of the year. It’s one additional measure to 24 as a government we’ve already introduced and there’s evidence that’s working.”

He added: “People will be able to get things for Christmas – these measures are having an impact, things are loosening up.

“When I talk to ports they’re saying ‘yes, it is busy, it’s a globally busy picture’, but if you compare us to many ports around the world, we need to keep this in proportion – things are flowing.”

Rod McKenzie, the managing director of policy and public affairs at the Road Haulage Association, told BBC Radio 4’s Today programme: “We don’t want cabotage to sabotage our industry.”

He said: “I spoke to some of our members last night, they were appalled. Ridiculous, pathetic, gobsmacked were some of their more broadcastable comments.

“The government has been talking about a high-wage, high-skill economy, and not pulling the lever marked ‘uncontrolled immigration’, and to them this is exactly what it looks like: allowing overseas haulage companies and drivers to come over for perhaps up to six months on a fortnightly basis to do unlimited work at low rates, undercutting UK hauliers who are facing an acute driver shortage, rising costs, staff wages.

“This is about taking work from British operators and drivers and giving it to Europeans who don’t pay tax here and pay peanuts to their drivers.”

Shapps said issues with supply chains were a problem internationally but they were being dealt with “resiliently” in the UK and “we shouldn’t report ourselves into a crisis”.

“We know that the globe has woken up following coronavirus with huge supply chain issues everywhere around the entire world,” he said.

“But in this country we have taken 24, now 25, different steps on the domestic side of that – the lorry drivers side of things – and we’re seeing it have a big impact.

“We’ve got now three times as many people applying to become lorry drivers every single day than before the crisis. We have to be careful, we mustn’t try and report ourselves into a crisis.”
 

class ep-09

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You asked how I'd deliver said "real" Brexit and I gave you the best answer I could come up with - which is hard, given that I'm not a shapeshifting creep and all that. In my view the options are simple: you either remove Brexit from Northern Ireland (with an Irish Sea border, on the basis that the rest of the UK gets the full "realness"), or you remove Northern Ireland from the UK (with reunification).

In other news, yet another u-turn:

I wonder how long it will take for other professions from EU to enjoy “enhanced carrier opportunities in the UK “ ( aka Freedom of Movement in all but name ).

Perhaps , all “low skilled” professions will also secretly move to “skilled” in Pretti Patel books to allow fill the 1.3mil vacancies .
 

edwin_m

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I wonder how long it will take for other professions from EU to enjoy “enhanced carrier opportunities in the UK “ ( aka Freedom of Movement in all but name ).

Perhaps , all “low skilled” professions will also secretly move to “skilled” in Pretti Patel books to allow fill the 1.3mil vacancies .
Meanwhile, what reciprocal rights do British haulage companies, lorry drivers etc, or indeed anyone else, have to work in the EU?
 

AlterEgo

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Maybe so British citizens have an opportunity to go and earn more money elsewhere if nasty British businesses aren't paying enough?
The main complaint about cabotage is that foreign workers are coming here to do essential work due to a shortage of skills, but are not required to pay tax here.

Firstly, you need to decide if that is a good thing, or a bad thing. Then we can progress to your argument that, in light of our skills shortage, you think we should negotiate the right to encourage British workers to…leave a vital industry dealing with our supply chain, in which we have a severe shortage.
 

class ep-09

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I certainly didn't...


Maybe so British citizens have an opportunity to go and earn more money elsewhere if nasty British businesses aren't paying enough?
Sorry .

I did not direct my answer specifically to you , just in general to anyone who claims that knew , what they were voting for ( in principle anyone who voted for brexit )

My answer should be :

None .

Country voted for it .

I certainly didn't...


Maybe so British citizens have an opportunity to go and earn more money elsewhere if nasty British businesses aren't paying enough?
Unfortunately EU Freedom of Movement does not apply to UK citizens anymore (for anyone who would want to earn better money across The Channel) .
 

RT4038

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You asked how I'd deliver said "real" Brexit and I gave you the best answer I could come up with - which is hard, given that I'm not a shapeshifting creep and all that. In my view the options are simple: you either remove Brexit from Northern Ireland (with an Irish Sea border, on the basis that the rest of the UK gets the full "realness"), or you remove Northern Ireland from the UK (with reunification).
It may be your best answer, but how would it have achieved Brexit? Most certainly currently politically unacceptable and unachievable for all sorts of reasons, it comes under the category of taking 300 years to achieve. i.e. never. So in other words the Brexiteers had no other option but to adopt the course they did to achieve their goal in the short window of opportunity, outmaneouvering the pro-EU/anti-Brexit faction in the process.
Fully understand the outmaneouvred feeling angry and calling those on the other side all sorts of names. But apart from feeling better, what is the point?

So the UK and the EU are going to have to live with a bit of a leaky border for Goods via Northern Ireland. The details of which are fluid/being renegotiated at present. Currently I suspect this worries the EU more than the UK, but that could easily change the other way over time. The UK is well versed at dealing with compromises, and systems that don't quite fit together. I expect both sides will survive. I expect all sorts to come back and bite both sides too.
 

RT4038

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Please tell me how Irish reunification would fail to leave the remainder of the UK free to pursue whatever sort of Brexit it wanted.
It would, I just don't think that starting in 2019 [when Boris Johnson was elected and the final phase of Brexit negotiations were started] that re-unification would be achieved on your terms by the end of 2020 or 2030 or 2040 or 2319. The small window of opportunity to achieve Brexit would have passed, along with the impetus to continue with Reunification.
 

jon0844

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The main complaint about cabotage is that foreign workers are coming here to do essential work due to a shortage of skills, but are not required to pay tax here.

Firstly, you need to decide if that is a good thing, or a bad thing. Then we can progress to your argument that, in light of our skills shortage, you think we should negotiate the right to encourage British workers to…leave a vital industry dealing with our supply chain, in which we have a severe shortage.

Maybe we should allow them to come and settle here, and pay taxes. In return, we could ask if we could allow our citizens to work and live in Europe.

No idea how we could do that though. I mean, we'd need some sort of union. Has such a thing ever been attempted before?
 

class ep-09

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Maybe we should allow them to come and settle here, and pay taxes. In return, we could ask if we could allow our citizens to work and live in Europe.

No idea how we could do that though. I mean, we'd need some sort of union. Has such a thing ever been attempted before?
Sounds like Freedom of Movement to me …

when can we get it back ?
 

REVUpminster

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Maybe we should allow them to come and settle here, and pay taxes. In return, we could ask if we could allow our citizens to work and live in Europe.

No idea how we could do that though. I mean, we'd need some sort of union. Has such a thing ever been attempted before?
Maybe our HGV drivers would flock to this Utopian land of the EU where they have higher wages and conditions to fill all the HGV vacancies (about 400,000) there and not to have to pay tax.
Is there a lorry driver shortage in Europe? What is the situation across the Channel? (msn.com)
 

jon0844

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Maybe they would. Isn't it nice to be able to choose? Maybe live in France, Spain or Italy and appreciate the freedom. Just imagine...
 

brad465

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Maybe our HGV drivers would flock to this Utopian land of the EU where they have higher wages and conditions to fill all the HGV vacancies (about 400,000) there and not to have to pay tax.
Is there a lorry driver shortage in Europe? What is the situation across the Channel? (msn.com)
"Whataboutery" is a pathetic attempt to justify bad situations at home because they are as bad if not worse elsewhere. I'm not denying there are problems elsewhere, but we do not improve the situation at home through whataboutery. If anything we make the situation here worse because we deny/ignore the problem, allowing it to get worse.

Unfortunately in our tribal culture now, we're all obliged to defend our "tribe", no matter how much wrong they do, when what we should be doing is scrutinising them and holding them to account for errors, so they learn from mistakes, which means people and the wider situations are all better for everyone.
 

AlterEgo

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"Whataboutery" is a pathetic attempt to justify bad situations at home because they are as bad if not worse elsewhere. I'm not denying there are problems elsewhere, but we do not improve the situation at home through whataboutery. If anything we make the situation here worse because we deny/ignore the problem, allowing it to get worse.

Unfortunately in our tribal culture now, we're all obliged to defend our "tribe", no matter how much wrong they do, when what we should be doing is scrutinising them and holding them to account for errors, so they learn from mistakes, which means people and the wider situations are all better for everyone.
Well quite. The government have been extremely slow to react to this. Regardless of your political stripe, the real problem is the oil-tanker speed at which any decision now seems to be made.

Maybe they would. Isn't it nice to be able to choose? Maybe live in France, Spain or Italy and appreciate the freedom. Just imagine...
It’s possible to work in any of those countries with the right permission and if the circumstances suit. That’s how it should work.
 

class ep-09

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Well quite. The government have been extremely slow to react to this. Regardless of your political stripe, the real problem is the oil-tanker speed at which any decision now seems to be made.


It’s possible to work in any of those countries with the right permission and if the circumstances suit. That’s how it should work.
Before we needed no permission .

It was our right to work wherever we wanted .
 

alex397

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Before we needed no permission .

It was our right to work wherever we wanted .
A common complaint from many who voted for Brexit (not all) is that there are ‘too many human rights’. So, it’s a win for anyone who thinks like that!
 

GusB

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A common complaint from many Brexit voters (not all) is that there are ‘too many human rights’. So, it’s a win for anyone who thinks like that!
Until their own rights are affected, then it's always the fault of some one else! :rolleyes:
 

AlterEgo

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Before we needed no permission .

It was our right to work wherever we wanted .
Yes but it was conditional on the reciprocal right for others to do the same here. It is by no means an absolute good; ask Romanians about their healthcare system, for one.

A common complaint from many who voted for Brexit (not all) is that there are ‘too many human rights’. So, it’s a win for anyone who thinks like that!
Free movement of labour is not a human right.
 

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