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When Will It All Go Wrong For The Tories/ Johnson?

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Typhoon

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Still the CBI speech is good news for someone. Michael Spicer ('The Room Next Door') has returned to the limelight.

The Room Next Door - Boris Johnson at the CBI - YouTube

Update: 24/11

One Tory whip told The Telegraph it was now an "assumption" that some disgruntled MPs had submitted no confidence letters to the 1922 committee.

The committee, made up of Tory backbenchers, collects any no confidence letters. If 15 per cent of sitting Conservative MPs submit them, a leadership contest is triggered.

The Tory whip said: "There is an assumption someone has put in a letter. The rumour is persistently around. It will not get anywhere near the 50 letters you would need, but it does cause angst."

A second Tory MP said several of the "usual suspects" were believed to have lost confidence in Mr Johnson and submitted letters.

OK, it's not an avalanche but any MP willing to put themselves forward is not a good sign, and a government whip saying to the media that this is happening is worse.

Letters of no confidence in Boris Johnson have been submitted, claim Tory MPs (msn.com)
 
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nw1

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Why not? It's very obvious that railway infrastructure is incredibly expensive, as is running the railways! It's perfectly possible to at the same time (a) want to support an industry, and (b) expect that industry to be run as efficiently as possible.

FWIW I don't think it's 'mock' at all. The reality rather appears to be that there is a group of people (including Johnson) who are very genuinely concerned about green issues and who want to prioritise them, and there are others in the Tory party who disagree, and who are pretty irritated at the Government for publicizing Green issues so much, resulting in a bit of a power struggle. I suspect that may be in part what is really behind some of the criticism from the right of Boris's CBI speech - almost certainly, some people in the Tories don't like how much he was pushing the green agenda.



This is probably not the appropriate thread to start discussing issues to do with the railways. But suffice to say - the UK Government has just opened the Okehampton line for regular services. We are currently building a small little line from London to Birmingham, Crewe and Manchester, another one across London from Paddington to Abbey Wood/Stratford, another from Oxford to Bletchley, another one to Ashington, and yet another one to Portishead. At the same time, the Government has just instructed NR to look into building new lines from Birmingham to East Midlands Parkway and Liverpool to just west of Huddersfield. Is there any other time in living memory when so many new lines were being built or planned at the same time? And this just after the Government has thrown £billions at the railways to keep them running during a year when there were almost no passengers! There is much to criticise about the current Government, but I really don't understand how you can imply they are not supporting the railways.

I'm thinking of things like SWR's proposed 2022 timetable, and other proposed timetables which show cuts and a lack of restoration of the pre-Covid timetable - ordered by the government. And it's not just peak, there are off-peak reductions too, for example the cutting of the Portsmouth Direct from 4 to 3 per hour.

OK I will admit there are some forthcoming improvements as you mention, but were many of these actually planned under the previous May, Cameron and Labour governments? Also, one could argue, before they spend money on new things, why not just get the baseline service of the past 15-20 years back first?

Maybe I am just completely cynical about this government and do not trust them, I won't mention the Elections Bill, the Policing Bill, their hard, no-customs-union, anti-EU-immigration variety of Brexit, or recent corruption scandals again but to those things just fuel cynicism and mistrust. Consequently I don't really think they care about green issues at all (the rest of their policies scarcely align with that) but they do care about trying to 'look good'. They realised they have alienated much of the middle, they may lose some 'red wall' seats next time, and need to win the middle back via a strategy that does not involve U-turns (e.g. on hard Brexit).
 
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Dai Corner

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I'm thinking of things like SWR's proposed 2022 timetable, and other proposed timetables which show cuts and a lack of restoration of the pre-Covid timetable - ordered by the government. And it's not just peak, there are off-peak reductions too, for example the cutting of the Portsmouth Direct from 4 to 3 per hour.

OK I will admit there are some forthcoming improvements as you mention, but were many of these actually planned under the previous May, Cameron and Labour governments? Also, one could argue, before they spend money on new things, why not just get the baseline service of the past 15-20 years back first?
Because traffic levels and patterns have changed. Surely it's better to introduce some new services, such as those mentioned, than run underloaded trains on routes which already have three or more trains an hour? Levelling up.
 

nw1

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Besides Johnson as PM, it'll continue to go wrong for the Tories as long as they continue to stick the likes of Nadine Dorries in senior roles. I'm watching her answer questions in an ongoing DCMS committee hearing. Not sure if it's supposed to be a bonus episode of The Thick of It but here we are.

That's the other thing that fuels my mistrust of this government (see other post). Johnson constantly selects right-wingers to be in senior roles. Patel, Raab, Truss, Kwarteng and Dorries. If they were really a 'government for all', then why is the cabinet filled with the hard-right?

Because traffic levels and patterns have changed. Surely it's better to introduce some new services, such as those mentioned, than run underloaded trains on routes which already have three or more trains an hour? Levelling up.

Not sure Waterloo to Guildford, for example, was underloaded at 4tph even-interval 15 min service. The trains were always busy when I used them on Saturdays for example, off-peak.
 
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Typhoon

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That's the other thing that fuels my mistrust of this government (see other post). Johnson constantly selects right-wingers to be in senior roles. Patel, Raab, Truss, Kwarteng and Dorries. If they were really a 'government for all', then why is the cabinet filled with the hard-right?
Most moderate Conservatives were either purged in 2019 or walked, those that did neither voted against him in the leadership election. The few he did appoint he is gradually weeding out - like Robert Buckland, who was generally thought of as competent.
Maybe by 'government for all', it means that all abilities have to be covered so you have to include the clueless, the out-of-their-depth, the incompetent, the ineffective. Having kicked out Williamson and Jenrick, he had to appoint similar to take their place? Just a thought.
 

nlogax

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Maybe by 'government for all', it means that all abilities have to be covered so you have to include the clueless, the out-of-their-depth, the incompetent, the ineffective. Having kicked out Williamson and Jenrick, he had to appoint similar to take their place? Just a thought.

This, really. Eg I wouldn't really call Dorries a true right-winger but she IS out of her depth, incompetent, ineffective and other words I sadly can't use here.
 

brad465

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Raab has spoken of the PM being "on great form", which is usually a sign things are not well:


Boris Johnson is "on great form", the deputy PM says, despite criticism over a speech to business leaders on Monday.
The prime minister was branded "shambolic" after his appearance at the CBI, where he referenced Peppa Pig, quoted Lenin and lost his place.
But Dominic Raab praised the PM's "ebullient, bouncy, optimistic, Tiggerish character", saying it "livens up" his speeches.
He said there was a "steeliness" to the PM, adding: "We work as a team."
And he dismissed the criticism as Westminster "tittle tattle".
The remarks come ahead of Prime Minister's Questions at 12:00 GMT, where Mr Johnson will face questions from Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer and other MPs.

Mr Johnson appeared before the CBI conference earlier this week to make his pitch for a "green industrial revolution" to business.
The speech included a recap of the PM's policies, including support for electric cars, investing in wind power and the government's integrated rail plan.
But it drew more negative attention after his impression of a car, comparing himself to Moses and his personal anecdote from a trip to Peppa Pig World.
"I was a bit hazy about what I would find at Peppa Pig World, but I loved it," he told the conference. "Peppa Pig World is very much my kind of place.
"It has very safe streets, discipline in schools, a heavy emphasis on mass transit systems I noticed, even if they are a bit stereotypical about Daddy Pig."
Asked after the speech, "is everything OK?", Mr Johnson said he thought people had "got the vast majority of the points" he wanted to make and that the speech "went over well".
 

Typhoon

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This, really. Eg I wouldn't really call Dorries a true right-winger but she IS out of her depth, incompetent, ineffective and other words I sadly can't use here.
I don't really think he looks for moderates or right wingers but he does look for loyalists, those that can sit in cabinet and chant drivel at the PMs bidding. She was very pro Brexit, pushed for Johnson for PM in 2018 and backed him when he was criticised over burqas. Ticks a lot of boxes. (I cannot disagree with your description, Cameron was wrong with a lot of things, but on her, he was not - not in the sense of ill, but more in the sense of 'senseless' - a loose cannon.)

Massive generalisation but those on the right tended to be for Brexit; while moderates tended to be remainers (so might, for instance, have supported May then Hunt) - if Johnson doubts their conversion they will stay outside the cabinet.
 

nw1

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'Tiggerish' indeed. I wish Boris Johnson was a fictional character.

Dominic 'ran away to Crete when the trouble in Afghanistan happened' Raab. I think everything he says can be safely binned; but the fact that he hasn't been sacked from government speaks volumes about Johnson.
 

nw1

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Raab has spoken of the PM being "on great form", which is usually a sign things are not well:


"Stereotypical" about Daddy Pig?

Johnson is someone who revels in stereotypes. His attempts to come across as a modern tolerant centrist, after all he has said and done in the past few years, fools no-one.
 

brad465

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It's being reported around a dozen Tory MPs have written letters to the 1922 committee chair wanting a leadership contest. This is nowhere near the 54 needed to trigger a vote, but shows there is now discontent in the party over Johnson's leadership. It's also worth considering that even if a vote is triggered, Johnson could still survive it, which would guarantee him another year as leader, and given his ego he'll almost certainly want to see it through entirely, unless something lucrative tempted him elsewhere.


Boris Johnson's deputy has insisted the prime minister is "on great form" despite reports that Conservative MPs have written to their party asking for him to be replaced.

A dozen Tory MPs are said to have written to the chair of the Tory backbench committee, with one senior MP telling The Sun newspaper: “There is real anger. He has until Spring to get back on track or he will be in real trouble."

Under Conservative party rules a leadership contest is triggered if 15 per cent of sitting Conservative MPs write a letter to the chair of the 1922 committee demanding one – a figure which currently equates to 54 letters.

Meanwhile Tory whips told the Telegraph there was an "assumption" that no confidence letters had been written, while another suggested "the usual suspects" were calling for the PM to go.

"It will not get anywhere near the 50 letters you would need, but it does cause angst," the whip told the newspaper.
 

DynamicSpirit

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Johnson is someone who revels in stereotypes. His attempts to come across as a modern tolerant centrist, after all he has said and done in the past few years, fools no-one.

Whereas I would argue that it's not just how he's trying to come across: On balance, across many issues, Johnson is a modern tolerant centrist. Sure, he has many faults. It does seem that he's a bit lazy, often hazy on details, disinclined to follow rules (leading to all the sleaze stuff), and tends too much to promote supporters, irrespective of competence, leading to a fairly incompetent Government. And of course, he has put ambition above principles on occasions (I'm inclined to believe his support for Brexit came into that category). Yet at the same time, he is pushing infrastructure investment, more Government intervention, higher Government spending on health etc., greeni issues and fighting climate change - all things that tend to come from the centre or left. If you don't bother reading right-wing papers or right-wing/conservative blogs (which I'd guess most people on the left, and most people on this forum, don't do), then it's very easy to miss just how unpopular those things are with the right of the Tory party, and therefore how brave you have to be as a Tory politician to be pushing that kind of agenda.

I think those on the left who keep trying to paint Johnson as some kind of extremist and who are hoping that he'll be removed as Tory leader are in for a pretty bad shock if they ever get their wish - since if that happens, there's a good chance we'll discover what it's like to have a Tory PM with a large majority who actually is strongly right-wing.
 

edwin_m

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Maybe by 'government for all', it means that all abilities have to be covered so you have to include the clueless, the out-of-their-depth, the incompetent, the ineffective. Having kicked out Williamson and Jenrick, he had to appoint similar to take their place? Just a thought.
I don't think that stacks up, otherwise there'd be a representative number of intelligent and competent people there too. Other than possibly Sunak (and he may just have been lucky) I don't see any.
It's being reported around a dozen Tory MPs have written letters to the 1922 committee chair wanting a leadership contest. This is nowhere near the 54 needed to trigger a vote, but shows there is now discontent in the party over Johnson's leadership. It's also worth considering that even if a vote is triggered, Johnson could still survive it, which would guarantee him another year as leader, and given his ego he'll almost certainly want to see it through entirely, unless something lucrative tempted him elsewhere.

I suspect getting the job is the ego boost he needs, getting one up on the doubters as I imagine he would have done in the Eton debating society and the Oxford Union. Having done so he has no interest in actually doing the job, and he probably realises history isn't going to look kindly on his legacy. So my guess is that he'll resist all efforts to push him out, but go at a time of his choosing when he has some small triumph to point to, but before too many of the consequences of his many blunders catch up with him. Perhaps he'll just have to settle for a dubious claim to be the person that "got Covid done".
Whereas I would argue that it's not just how he's trying to come across: On balance, across many issues, Johnson is a modern tolerant centrist. Sure, he has many faults. It does seem that he's a bit lazy, often hazy on details, disinclined to follow rules (leading to all the sleaze stuff), and tends too much to promote supporters, irrespective of competence, leading to a fairly incompetent Government. And of course, he has put ambition above principles on occasions (I'm inclined to believe his support for Brexit came into that category). Yet at the same time, he is pushing infrastructure investment, more Government intervention, higher Government spending on health etc., greeni issues and fighting climate change - all things that tend to come from the centre or left. If you don't bother reading right-wing papers or right-wing/conservative blogs (which I'd guess most people on the left, and most people on this forum, don't do), then it's very easy to miss just how unpopular those things are with the right of the Tory party, and therefore how brave you have to be as a Tory politician to be pushing that kind of agenda.

I think those on the left who keep trying to paint Johnson as some kind of extremist and who are hoping that he'll be removed as Tory leader are in for a pretty bad shock if they ever get their wish - since if that happens, there's a good chance we'll discover what it's like to have a Tory PM with a large majority who actually is strongly right-wing.
Indeed, many of his policies resemble those of Wilson and Callaghan, but less constrained by any recognition of what is possible either physically, economically or politically. That has the effect of stealing Labour's thunder on economics, and forcing them to campaign on social issues where it's harder for them to cut through and the Tories can use this to stoke culture wars and keep their base on side (they hope). Recent events have been damaging for the Tories because they show that base the sort of people they really voted for, and the rest of the electorate is quite possibly sufficiently repelled by the Tories that they wouldn't vote for them whatever their policies.

I'll be delighted if any significant "levelling up" actually happens, but this government got into power by making unachievable promises, and whatever talent it contains is for selling not for delivering, so let's just say I have my doubts. Even their selling ability is highly questionable, considering how they've managed to turn an announcement of £95bn of investment in the North into a PR disaster.

Everything still comes back to Brexit. As far as I'm concerned politicians have a duty to understand a policy before they decide whether to support it, and any politician supporting Brexit is incompetent, venal, lazy or all of the above. Thus explaining the lack of talent in the Cabinet. The economic hit is also exactly what you don't need when you're trying to pay for a historic investment programme as well as the debts from a pandemic.
 

Sm5

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I don't think that stacks up, otherwise there'd be a representative number of intelligent and competent people there too. Other than possibly Sunak (and he may just have been lucky) I don't see any.

I suspect getting the job is the ego boost he needs, getting one up on the doubters as I imagine he would have done in the Eton debating society and the Oxford Union. Having done so he has no interest in actually doing the job, and he probably realises history isn't going to look kindly on his legacy. So my guess is that he'll resist all efforts to push him out, but go at a time of his choosing when he has some small triumph to point to, but before too many of the consequences of his many blunders catch up with him. Perhaps he'll just have to settle for a dubious claim to be the person that "got Covid done".

Indeed, many of his policies resemble those of Wilson and Callaghan, but less constrained by any recognition of what is possible either physically, economically or politically. That has the effect of stealing Labour's thunder on economics, and forcing them to campaign on social issues where it's harder for them to cut through and the Tories can use this to stoke culture wars and keep their base on side (they hope). Recent events have been damaging for the Tories because they show that base the sort of people they really voted for, and the rest of the electorate is quite possibly sufficiently repelled by the Tories that they wouldn't vote for them whatever their policies.

I'll be delighted if any significant "levelling up" actually happens, but this government got into power by making unachievable promises, and whatever talent it contains is for selling not for delivering, so let's just say I have my doubts. Even their selling ability is highly questionable, considering how they've managed to turn an announcement of £95bn of investment in the North into a PR disaster.

Everything still comes back to Brexit. As far as I'm concerned politicians have a duty to understand a policy before they decide whether to support it, and any politician supporting Brexit is incompetent, venal, lazy or all of the above. Thus explaining the lack of talent in the Cabinet. The economic hit is also exactly what you don't need when you're trying to pay for a historic investment programme as well as the debts from a pandemic.
None of this will bring the next election closer.

As winston said this is the end of the beginning…
weve 3 more years of this yet.

5 years fixed term is too long when the zoo animals are running the zoo.

I wonder if by 2024 Boris Johnson will be mimicking Boris Yeltsin at the end of his time.
 
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hst43102

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Just watched the PMQ's, Sir Keir Starmer absolutely rinsed Boris about the health and social care reforms. If he can follow this up with some good policy changes from Labour, the country just might have a sliver of hope.
 

Typhoon

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I don't think that stacks up, otherwise there'd be a representative number of intelligent and competent people there too. Other than possibly Sunak (and he may just have been lucky) I don't see any.
Ben Wallace is not that bad. And we know that Rees-Mogg is intelligent because Andrew Bridgen said so, that is why he doesn't need to take any notice of the emergency services. (Actually, he probably is - his 'put downs' are quite clever and he must have an appreciation of History to give his kids such names.)

Actually, you are right, they are worse than I thought. Every time I found a minister (not necessarily cabinet) who I thought was OK, I found they had been shown the 'Out' door. Maybe he is working on the assumption that as the 'Ministry of All the Talents' was a failure. the Ministry of none of the talents will be a rip-roaring success. Not working so far!
 

edwin_m

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(Actually, he [Rees-Mogg] probably is - his 'put downs' are quite clever and he must have an appreciation of History to give his kids such names.)
As well as intelligent, they need to be honest, have a good moral compass, and be competent at delivering. Otherwise they'll either fail to do anything or succeed in doing the wrong things. Unless combined with the above, the ability to give good verbal put-downs is counter-productive, because a sensible proposal from someone not so verbally deft might end up being squashed. On recent evidence, perhaps BoZo has lost that ability.

And an appreciation of history may just be a result of going to an expensive school and having a passable memory. Perhaps if more of our politicians and civil servants studied science and economics instead of classics, we wouldn't be in such a state.
 

Typhoon

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As well as intelligent, they need to be honest, have a good moral compass, and be competent at delivering. Otherwise they'll either fail to do anything or succeed in doing the wrong things. Unless combined with the above, the ability to give good verbal put-downs is counter-productive, because a sensible proposal from someone not so verbally deft might end up being squashed. On recent evidence, perhaps BoZo has lost that ability.

And an appreciation of history may just be a result of going to an expensive school and having a passable memory. Perhaps if more of our politicians and civil servants studied science and economics instead of classics, we wouldn't be in such a state.
I am not doubting what you are writing. However I don't think they see it like that, I think they regard 'getting away with it' as a victory, to some I think it is a bit of a game. For instance, I think our Prime Minister just wants to be the Prime Minister (but does not want to be Prime Minister particularly). That is he wants the job title, not the job. He wants a photograph on the Downing Street stairs that says 'A.B. Johnson, 2019 - 2020-whatever'. He likes the photo ops, the speeches, touring round the country and the world. shaking hands. That black and white fund raising event the other day - he'd be in his element. Not so keen on decision making - leaves that to others, it might irritate people. He wants infrastructure so he can point to it say that it was his government that did that, even more people (nurses, police officers) anything he can point to and say he did it. Most Prime Ministers do this but he is worse than most in that he doesn't bother with detail; build new hospitals - tick - no staff for the hospitals, not his problem; recruit more police officers - tick - authorities can't afford increased wage bill, not his problem; new rail lines - tick - overcrowding on existing ones, not his problem.

I don't agree with everything Alistair Campbell says but he was dead right on 'moral compass'.
 

Busaholic

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I think those on the left who keep trying to paint Johnson as some kind of extremist and who are hoping that he'll be removed as Tory leader are in for a pretty bad shock if they ever get their wish - since if that happens, there's a good chance we'll discover what it's like to have a Tory PM with a large majority who actually is strongly right-wing.
John Redwood or the return of Owen Patterson? :D
 

brad465

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Busaholic

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How on earth can someone like Dorries be so highly regarded? Unless hypocrisy and a lack of basic understanding of her brief are positive qualities of course
She appears to thinks Channel 4 is taxpayer funded, so how can she decide its future?
 

Kite159

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Just watched the PMQ's, Sir Keir Starmer absolutely rinsed Boris about the health and social care reforms. If he can follow this up with some good policy changes from Labour, the country just might have a sliver of hope.

And no doubt whatever Labour's policy is, will change if the wind blows another way as Sir Flip Flop changes tactic to attempt to please some part of the Labour party (the Corbyn supporters element who won't be happy until Doris who has worked hard all her life is forced to sell everything she owns before getting care, when Derek gets it for free as he has spent all his benefit money on ciggies & beer and lives in a council flat).


I suspect Johnson will 'retire' before March next year, probably citing poor health caused by stress, riding off into the sunset of after dinner speeches
 
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