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When Will It All Go Wrong For The Tories/ Johnson?

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Acfb

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I now reckon the Tories will lose the North Shropshire by election to the Lib Dems although I don't know if that will hasten Johnson's departure (which I'm not bothered about) as they'll be able to blame it on local issues/Patterson.
 

brad465

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I now reckon the Tories will lose the North Shropshire by election to the Lib Dems although I don't know if that will hasten Johnson's departure (which I'm not bothered about) as they'll be able to blame it on local issues/Patterson.
Two of the North Shropshire Tory councillors have defected to other parties standing in the by-election, which is both a sign of declining Tory support and increased support for the defecting parties: one to Reform UK, one to Laurence Fox's Reclaim party. This could cause a right wing vote split that aids the Lib Dems winning the seat, even if the split is for only a few % points.


(Can't quote text due to being behind a paywall.)

Johnson also got his party's by-election candidate's name wrong on a visit there 2 days ago, which is the last thing the party wants:


Boris Johnson got the Conservative candidate in the upcoming North Shropshire by-election's name wrong on a visit to the constituency.

The prime minister visited Oswestry in North Shropshire on Friday to give his party a campaign boost, but accidentally referred to Tory candidate Dr Neil Shastri-Hurst as Dr Neil Shastri-Hughes.

The by-election is due to take place on 16 December, having been triggered after the Standards Committee recommended the constituency's former MP Owen Paterson be suspended from Parliament for 30 days over an "egregious" breach of a ban on paid lobbying by MPs.

The former minister announced his resignation as MP for the constituency following a government U-turn.

Speaking to reporters in Oswestry, Mr Johnson said Dr Shastri-Hurst - a former British Army medical officer and honorary NHS consultant who now works as a barrister - was a "fantastic" candidate.

But the PM proceeded to address Dr Shastri-Hurst incorrectly.

"I think we've got a fantastic candidate, Dr Neil Shastri-Hughes, who I've just been seen contributing already to the life of the community by vaccinating people, he's a doctor amongst his many other talents and what he's also going to do is work very, very hard for the people of North Shropshire," he said.
 

21C101

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I think it is telling that the leader of the opposition has denounced the Peppa Pig Theme Park as "dreadful"

It encapsulates in one phrase their mentality. Snobbish, puritannical, aloof, bores with no care or interest in the values of the despised majority of hoi polloi, who do not live in their insular, upper class Grauniad reading clique.

How did the party of the working classes become the party of the worst sort of condescending petty middle class "look down your nose" snobs?

Then wonder why they can't win an election even when the other side are knocking regular own goals into their own net.


Sure, the lib dems might win the Shropshire by election just as they did Amersham, but in a general election they can't deploy the entire active party membership in one seat for four weeks. Meanwhile as Labour continue to shoot themselves in the foot with their best hope leading a rainbow coalition to displace the tories, posters will appear across the country with the message "Vote Starmer or Davey, Get Sturgeon" which they did to cutting effect (Miliband/Salmond) in 2015.
 

brad465

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I think it is telling that the leader of the opposition has denounced the Peppa Pig Theme Park as "dreadful"

It encapsulates in one phrase their mentality. Snobbish, puritannical, aloof, bores with no care or interest in the values of the despised majority of hoi polloi, who do not live in their insular, upper class Grauniad reading clique.
Neoliberalism is all about individualism, selfishness, division, everything that's against causes for common good. We've had this for 4 decades now, enough time to produce at least one, if not two, generations and a bunch of politicians whose behaviour is influenced by a neoliberal mindset.

How did the party of the working classes become the party of the worst sort of condescending petty middle class "look down your nose" snobs?
Tony Blair.
 

21C101

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Neoliberalism is all about individualism, selfishness, division, everything that's against causes for common good. We've had this for 4 decades now, enough time to produce at least one, if not two, generations and a bunch of politicians whose behaviour is influenced by a neoliberal mindset.


Tony Blair.
I would say the rot set in when Gaitskill unexpectedly died and people like Woy Jenkins took control of the party (Bliar was a protege of his)..
 

Typhoon

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Johnson also got his party's by-election candidate's name wrong on a visit there 2 days ago, which is the last thing the party wants:
Seems like he's not the only one with a slim command of accuracy:
A Black Country MP admitted his geography is "not great" after he got the name of a constituency wrong when he was out on the campaign trail.
Eddie Hughes mistakenly said he was in 'North Staffs' while was out campaigning in Wem ahead of the North Shropshire by-election.
North Shropshire by-election: MP who mixed up counties jokes about geography | Shropshire Star

I cannot understand why the Conservatives thought that shortlisting two Birmingham based candidates (out of 3) was a good move. The councillor who defected to Reform UK accused Mr Shastri-Hurst of having zero knowledge of Shropshire (after campaigning with him). Given the nature of Paterson's departure, I would have thought that someone with knowledge and experience from a similar type of area, who could say 'I understand' and mean it. might help shore up the votes. They won't get the sympathy vote that they got in Old Bexley and Sidcup.

I would say the rot set in when Gaitskill unexpectedly died and people like Woy Jenkins took control of the party (Bliar was a protege of his)..
Surely, when Gaitskill died it was a straight fight between Wilson and (George) Brown, Wilson being the more left wing of the two (he had resigned over the introduction of prescription and other medical charges, I believe, and was a disciple of Nye Bevan). Jenkins was a minor figure until Wilson's second term.

What was noticeable about Wilson and Brown was that they were both effective speakers (you had to be then), no 'forgive me', no fumbling with notes - they didn't need notes, they spoke from the heart.
 

21C101

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Seems like he's not the only one with a slim command of accuracy:

North Shropshire by-election: MP who mixed up counties jokes about geography | Shropshire Star

I cannot understand why the Conservatives thought that shortlisting two Birmingham based candidates (out of 3) was a good move. The councillor who defected to Reform UK accused Mr Shastri-Hurst of having zero knowledge of Shropshire (after campaigning with him). Given the nature of Paterson's departure, I would have thought that someone with knowledge and experience from a similar type of area, who could say 'I understand' and mean it. might help shore up the votes. They won't get the sympathy vote that they got in Old Bexley and Sidcup.


Surely, when Gaitskill died it was a straight fight between Wilson and (George) Brown, Wilson being the more left wing of the two (he had resigned over the introduction of prescription and other medical charges, I believe, and was a disciple of Nye Bevan). Jenkins was a minor figure until Wilson's second term.

What was noticeable about Wilson and Brown was that they were both effective speakers (you had to be then), no 'forgive me', no fumbling with notes - they didn't need notes, they spoke from the heart.
I have to disagree with you there. Jenkins became Home Secretary in December 1965, just over a year after Wilsons first victory. He then went onto become Chancellor in 1967 until Labour lost the 1970 election, then became Home Secretary again for another two years after Wilson won again in '74 having been shadow chancellor and home secretary during the intervening years. Then he became president if the European Commission from '77-'81.

Agree about the public speaking part of your post though.
 

Butts

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Seems like he's not the only one with a slim command of accuracy:

North Shropshire by-election: MP who mixed up counties jokes about geography | Shropshire Star

I cannot understand why the Conservatives thought that shortlisting two Birmingham based candidates (out of 3) was a good move. The councillor who defected to Reform UK accused Mr Shastri-Hurst of having zero knowledge of Shropshire (after campaigning with him). Given the nature of Paterson's departure, I would have thought that someone with knowledge and experience from a similar type of area, who could say 'I understand' and mean it. might help shore up the votes. They won't get the sympathy vote that they got in Old Bexley and Sidcup.


Surely, when Gaitskill died it was a straight fight between Wilson and (George) Brown, Wilson being the more left wing of the two (he had resigned over the introduction of prescription and other medical charges, I believe, and was a disciple of Nye Bevan). Jenkins was a minor figure until Wilson's second term.

What was noticeable about Wilson and Brown was that they were both effective speakers (you had to be then), no 'forgive me', no fumbling with notes - they didn't need notes, they spoke from the heart.

Or "the bottle" In Brown's case ?
 

Typhoon

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I have to disagree with you there. Jenkins became Home Secretary in December 1965, just over a year after Wilsons first victory. He then went onto become Chancellor in 1967 until Labour lost the 1970 election, then became Home Secretary again for another two years after Wilson won again in '74 having been shadow chancellor and home secretary during the intervening years. Then he became president if the European Commission from '77-'81.

Agree about the public speaking part of your post though.
Sorry, you are quite right about Jenkins, I thought Soskice had limped along until the election. I would still maintain that even the Wilson of the '60s was more left leaning than Gaitskill or indeed Brown
 

21C101

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Sorry, you are quite right about Jenkins, I thought Soskice had limped along until the election. I would still maintain that even the Wilson of the '60s was more left leaning than Gaitskill or indeed Brown
Oh yes I agree on that.

The change was in regards to social conservatism to social liberalism, labour pre Wilson was far more socially conservative than either the Tories or Liberals.

(Thatcher turned the tories to economic liberalism, and Blair combined the two).

I think it is partly a result of the collapse in the Liberals from the 1920s, meaning that ambitious liberal politicians joined the Tory and Labour parties, with various degrees of openness (the Tories of course absorbed both the Liberal Unionists and National Liberals, the latter not that long ago historically - Heseltine started out as a National Liberal.

This led ultimately to the labour ructions of the 1980s and the Tories near split over Brexit which was largely a divide between their liberal and conservative wings. Whatever else Brexit was or wasn't it was the biggest setback to the cause of liberalism in decades.
 

Typhoon

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Oh yes I agree on that.

The change was in regards to social conservatism to social liberalism, labour pre Wilson was far more socially conservative than either the Tories or Liberals.

(Thatcher turned the tories to economic liberalism, and Blair combined the two).

I think it is partly a result of the collapse in the Liberals from the 1920s, meaning that ambitious liberal politicians joined the Tory and Labour parties, with various degrees of openness (the Tories of course absorbed both the Liberal Unionists and National Liberals, the latter not that long ago historically - Heseltine started out as a National Liberal.

This led ultimately to the labour ructions of the 1980s and the Tories near split over Brexit which was largely a divide between their liberal and conservative wings. Whatever else Brexit was or wasn't it was the biggest setback to the cause of liberalism in decades.
Not a disagreement but I would add that the implosion of the Liberals was self imposed (in my opinion) and is a message to both current party leaders (and, I suppose another north of the border) that split parties rarely do well.
 

brad465

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I'm going to assume there's an exception to the law banning the impersonation a police officer, but today Johnson was seen in police overalls amongst police officers promoting plans to tackle drug-related health problems and crimes:


The government says it is to provide rehabilitation for 300,000 drug users who carry out half of all shop thefts, robberies and burglaries.
Ministers have announced that a 10-year drugs strategy will allocate £780m in funding for the drug treatment system in England.
It also includes £300m for combating more than 2,000 county lines gangs.
The government says that in some cases casual drug users may lose their driving licences or passports.
Labour said reforms were "long overdue" and cuts to police budgets had allowed gangs to grow.
Announcing its new drug strategy on Monday, the government said all local authorities in England will receive new money for treatment and recovery - with the 50 councils where there is most need receiving the funds first.
The strategy, say ministers, will treat addiction as a chronic health condition in order to reduce stigma, save lives and break the cycle of crime fuelled by addiction.

This will include delivering treatment and recovery services through rebuilding the workforce, council-led substance misuse services and ensuring support is more integrated to cater for users' physical and mental health needs.
The government will also look to improve access to accommodation and treatment for people at risk of sleeping rough as well as boosting employment opportunities.
It plans to roll out individual employment support across all local authorities in England by 2025 to help those in recovery to secure work.
It will also aim to increase the number of referrals for treatment from within the criminal justice system and improve the engagement of prisoners with treatment after their release.
Judges will also be given the power to order testing on anyone serving a community sentence for drug-related offences and those who test positive could be jailed.
1638821791397.png
 

21C101

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Not a disagreement but I would add that the implosion of the Liberals was self imposed (in my opinion) and is a message to both current party leaders (and, I suppose another north of the border) that split parties rarely do well.
In some ways I find it quite astonishing that in a country where liberalism is such a dominant political philosophy, the Liberal Party so abruptly and totally collapsed.

Had the Liberals not split over Irish Home Rule giving rise to the currently governing Conservative and Liberal Unionist Party, I cannot see how the Tories would have survived the arrival of the Universal Franchise and Labour Party as a major force.

Ironically prior to the Universal Franchise the Tories held northern seats that became solid Labour for decades until very recently when the red wall fell.

Conversely many seats in places like Amersham were solid Liberal until the liberal splits saw Liberal Unionists, National Liberals etc in the seats joining the Tories and prosperous liberal voters fearful of confiscatory socialism voting Tory to keep Labour out.

The recent developments of the tories winning places like Bolsover and the Libdems taking wealthy southern seats is in some respect a reversion to the situation over a century ago.

I'm going to assume there's an exception to the law banning the impersonation a police officer, but today Johnson was seen in police overalls amongst police officers promoting plans to tackle drug-related health problems and crimes:



View attachment 106570
Note that his police uniform does not have a badge. In TV police series the force badges have to be fake to avoid falling foul of this law.
 

Busaholic

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Sorry, you are quite right about Jenkins, I thought Soskice had limped along until the election. I would still maintain that even the Wilson of the '60s was more left leaning than Gaitskill or indeed Brown
Yes, when Nye Bevan suddenly died in 1960 a vacancy opened up for Deputy Leader of the Labour Party which Harold Wilson contested as the hoped-for successor to Bevan; Gaitskill's friend George Brown, who was rather headstrong, had no truck with Wilson and fought him for it, and Brown won. The Left were perturbed that their influence was waning, and when Gaitskill too unexpectedly died, in 1963, they went all out to get Wilson chosen as Leader in his place, which duly happened. Roy Jenkins had been an unenthusiastic Brownite, but Wilson was canny in keeping his party together and, on the whole, chose more Gaitskillites like Tony Crosland and Denis Healey for his Cabinets, with Brown as Deputy Leader and (later) Foreign Secretary and fellow right wing Trade Union traditionalist James Callaghan as Chancellor of the Exchequer. Places for the Left were sparse, with Richard Crossman prominent. Anthony Wedgwood-Benn was seen as more of a Gaitskillite in those days, before his claimed re-invention as a man of the True Left! Douglas Jay was another significant figure, difficult to classify, but basically dead centre in Labour terms. Like Peter Shore later, another Centrist, Jay was viscerally opposed to the U.K. joining the Common Market, Ted Heath's big intention as Tory leader.
 

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Typhoon

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is the lead story at https://www.itv.com/news https://news.sky.com/ and https://www.theguardian.com/uk

I can't see the video on the BBC News WWW site. Their latest on the story is https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-59563762
That is better than I found, and wipes out possible excuses ('business meeting'). This does not help either:-

The UK Foreign Office's handling of the Afghan evacuation after the Taliban seized Kabul was dysfunctional and chaotic, a whistleblower has said.

Raphael Marshall said the process of choosing who could get a flight out was arbitrary and thousands of emails with pleas for help went unread.

The then Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab was slow to make decisions, he added.


Mr Raab told the BBC lessons would be learned but the UK did a good job compared to other countries.

After the Taliban took control of Afghanistan's capital, Kabul, the UK airlifted 15,000 people out of the country, including 5,000 British nationals, 8,000 Afghans and 2,000 children.

In written evidence to the Foreign Affairs Committee, Mr Marshall said up to 150,000 Afghans who were at risk because of their links to Britain applied to be evacuated - but fewer than 5% received any assistance.

"It is clear that some of those left behind have since been murdered by the Taliban," he added
.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-59549868

PMQs tomorrow. Refrigeration unit for Mr Johnson?
 

SteveM70

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There’s also a leak of a letter from Johnson’s PPS to Pen Farthing confirming he and his people and animals could leave. But they continue to deny Johnson and/or Carrie (who I heard rather wonderfully referred to as Carrie Antoinette earlier) was involved, even though it’s a letter from his PPS clearly written in that capacity. They say she was acting as a constituency MP, despite her representing Copeland and the animal mob being based in Devon. They just don’t know when to stop lying; the government equivalent of a five year old with chocolate smeared all over his face denying raiding the biscuit tin.

But will there be any consequences?
 

brad465

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Just searching through all the prominent newspapers/outlets and all mainstream outlets I could think of, bar 2, have this revelation prominently on their front pages (with the exception of the Telegraph and the Financial Times).

EDIT: The FT now has it too.
 

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The trouble is that, although there is a steady drip of failings, most people will just shrug and say, “Oh, not another one, but what can we do. Now what’s on Netflix.” There is little we can do against a party between elections: the odd individual MP can be recalled, but the party with a massive majority can wear that. By the time the next election comes the governing party, if it is unscrupulous enough, can have emasculated the opposition.

With the Afghan dogs and cats, my feeling is that Johnson didn’t actually give an instruction: details and decisions are not his things. He may have vaguely agreed with some comments by Mrs Johnson the Third, which had become an instruction by the time they get further down the chain. As far as the Christmas party is concerned, they seem to be confusing the issue with everything anybody says: whether this is policy or confusion is difficult to tell. But it produces a generally poor impression to many.

Despite that, with several long-standing (or long-sitting MPs) having announced their retirement, one wonders if Labour is getting new candidates ready to start working their hoped for seat in good time for the election. It may also be that Starmer reckons he is on an upswing, albeit small, and it is a good time to get moderates in while the ‘Bring back Jeremy’ mob are weakened.
 

bspahh

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With the Afghan dogs and cats, my feeling is that Johnson didn’t actually give an instruction: details and decisions are not his things. He may have vaguely agreed with some comments by Mrs Johnson the Third, which had become an instruction by the time they get further down the chain.
This is the letter, as posted to twitter by Theo Isherwood, political editor of LBC
Letter from Trudy Harrison, MP, Parliamentary Private Secretary to the Prime Minister to Paul Farthing, informing him that he and his staff can fly out of Kabul with the RAF, and that the animals can fly on a charter flight


The letter is signed as from the Parliamentary Private Secretary to the Prime Minister, and is not to one of her constituents.
 

jon0844

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Good old Rees Mogg showing himself to be a very nice, honest, moral person...


(Twitter text: Here's Jacob Rees Mogg last December giving a speech at what appears to be the festive party for the secretly funded right-wing lobby group, the IEA. Listen to what he says, and how he mocks the lockdown rules imposed on us by his govt. #OneRuleForThem #bbcpm @LBC)
 

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i wonder who was at the party?

Clearly a lot of the media were at the party, so they've got a strong incentive not to report on the party and who was there!

It WILL get leaked at some point. Maybe Dominic Cummings will produce the WhatsApp group text, or we'll get more audio and video recordings.

I heard they're now trying to see if Downing Street is given some Crown exemption for laws, and so when they do have to 'fess up' they'll just say 'It was no big deal, as it wasn't illegal anyway' and tell everyone to carry on.

Will it stop Tory voters voting Tory? Hell no. They'll be well up for giving MPs more power over courts and that pesky ECHR, or letting them lock people up for protesting things like BLM or green issues. They'll just tell their MPs to try and be more discrete next time.
 

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I'm going to assume there's an exception to the law banning the impersonation a police officer, but today Johnson was seen in police overalls amongst police officers promoting plans to tackle drug-related health problems and crimes:
(snip)

I would have thought impersonating a Prime Minister would be a greater offence!
 

bspahh

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I heard they're now trying to see if Downing Street is given some Crown exemption for laws, and so when they do have to 'fess up' they'll just say 'It was no big deal, as it wasn't illegal anyway' and tell everyone to carry on.

Will it stop Tory voters voting Tory? Hell no. They'll be well up for giving MPs more power over courts and that pesky ECHR, or letting them lock people up for protesting things like BLM or green issues. They'll just tell their MPs to try and be more discrete next time.

This is a detailed and (I am not a lawyer) plausible analysis of whether the Downing Street party was legal.
https://barristerblogger.com/2021/1...-break-the-law-with-the-downing-street-party/

It concludes:
If the party was confined to the government rooms and offices in the “official” parts of No 10, it probably did not breach the criminal law, even though it was in flagrant breach of its spirit, as well as of the official advice and guidance, much of it emanating from the Prime Minister himself.

If the party took place inside the private flat within No 10 it was unlawful. There is still plenty of time left for a prosecution to take place. But given that the flat at No 10 was not the Prime Minister’s actual residence, and given that he did not attend the party the prospect of actually prosecuting the Prime Minister would seem to be extremely remote.

Gavin Williamson also hosted a party on December 10th 2020, during Tier 2 restrictions
https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/tory-gavin-williamson-hosted-party-25641812 says
Tonight the DfE did not deny Covid rules had been broken and admitted “it would have been better” not to have held the event while the rest of the country was banned from doing so.

Someone on twitter wrote "deputy heads will roll" for all this
 

brad465

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Even Ant and Dec mentioned this situation in the im a clebrity show this evening

Cutting through?
Yes when the Hancock affair was exposed, there were a number of jokes and critical remarks being made about in circles, especially from what I could see in my personal life, from people who I've not normally seen get involved in politics. He of course resigned from a Government where for over a year ministers were committing resigning offences but stayed put. If two well known TV presenters are putting this latest bombshell into a live TV script only hours (if that) after the material became available, and again where they normally would not bring up politics, then the culprits are in trouble.
 
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