Omicron variant and the measures implemented in response to it

[duncanp]

More evidence of deliberate Omicron scaremongering, this time by the UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA)

A spokesman said the figure (an estimated 200,000 Omicron infections per day) had given a “useful snapshot” to “emphasise the scale” at which omicron was spreading but argued that increased mask wearing and working from home had altered the forecast. The UKHSA could not give an up-to-date estimate of infections.

What a load of tosh.

The estimate of 200,000 "infections" per day was released without showing the methodology behind the calculation.

So in other words, they released a scary "estimate" of the number of infections per day, together with a similarly nebulous "estimate" of the doubling time (1.9 days) but without anything to show how they worked these figures out.

A "useful snapshot to emphasise the scale at which Omicron was spreading" - my ****.

This was deliberately designed to panic the government, and also MPs, into

(a) voting for Plan B
(b) believing that more restrictions over and above Plan B were not only necessary, but inevitable.

If I was Sajid Javid or Boris Johnson, I would be giving Jenny Harries (the head of UKHSA) a right b********g for issuing such rubbish, and trying to pretend it had a basis in fact.

Note also the sentence in the article which suggests that, once again, Imperial College "modelling" is wide of the mark.

Imperial warned that the risk of reinfection with the omicron variant is 5.4 times greater than that of the delta variant, although latest UKHSA real-world data suggests it is closer to three times.

I am afraid that this familiar cycle of dodgy modelling being trotted out in order to scare the government into introducing restrictions, or to scare the government into believing that it is not safe to release restrictions, has been a feature of the entire pandemic, right from Professor Pantsdowns original "predictions" in March 2020.

The fact that the Prime Minister is congenitally stupid (he "doesn't do detail") means that all these modellers have been able to get away with it.

Modelling behind Sajid Javid’s claim of 200,000 daily omicron infections ‘no longer valid’

Health officials admit it is now wrong to assume the doubling rate will remain constant, as new measures are slowing the spread of Covid-19

www.telegraph.co.uk

Sajid Javid’s 200,000 daily omicron cases claim ‘no longer valid’​

Health officials say new measures are slowing the spread of Covid-19 as real-world data offers hope on the effectiveness of current vaccines

Modelling used to justify Sajid Javid’s claim that there were 200,000 omicron infections a day has been abandoned by health officials, who say it is ‘no longer valid’ because of behavioural changes.

On Monday, the Health Secretary caused widespread confusion by announcing the figure without releasing the methodology behind the calculation. The UK Health and Security Agency (UKHSA) consistently warned this week that omicron infections were doubling every 1.9 days.

But a methodology memo published quietly by the UKHSA on Thursday states it is now wrong to assume that the doubling rate will remain constant, and so should no longer be used.

A spokesman said the figure had given a “useful snapshot” to “emphasise the scale” at which omicron was spreading, but argued that increased mask wearing and working from home had altered the forecast. The UKHSA could not give an up-to-date estimate of infections.

It comes after a poll suggested that the public are tiring of restrictions. A YouGov survey for The Times newspaper found that a majority of people would not back pubs, restaurants or non-essential shops being shut or bans on meeting people from other households.

On Friday, new modelling by Imperial College was also criticised for failing to take into account real-world data from South Africa showing that omicron is causing fewer deaths and hospitalisations, and leading to shorter stays in hospital even for the oldest and most vulnerable.

Imperial warned that the risk of reinfection with the omicron variant is 5.4 times greater than that of the delta variant, although latest UKHSA real-world data suggests it is closer to three times.

The Imperial modelling suggests that in countries with high vaccination rates – such as Britain – an omicron wave could bring nearly 5,000 deaths a day – three times as many as the January wave. However, experts said this was unlikely.

Professor James Naismith, Director of the Rosalind Franklin Institute, said: “We can be confident that the double and especially triple vaccinated have protection against serious disease.

“As a result, the number of hospitalisations per 1000 infections of omicron will be significantly lower than the first wave. Better medicines and treatments will help too.”

The Imperial team, led by Professor Neil Ferguson, said there was little evidence to suggest that omicron was milder, in contrast to mounting real-world and laboratory data showing the opposite.

Imperial’s own data, which looked at more than 200,000 cases between November 29 and December 11 also showed that the risk of needing hospital attention from omicron was 0.15 per cent compared to 0.66 per cent compared to delta – four times less.

The Imperial model also states that a booster jab may only give 80 per cent protection against hospitalisation. However, models released last weekend by London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine state it could be anywhere between 84 per cent and 97 per cent.

‘Important not to over-interpret’​

Commenting on the Imperial study, Dr Clive Dix, former chair of the UK Vaccine Taskforce, said: “It is important not to over-interpret this data. The conclusions made are based on making assumptions about omicron where we still don’t have sufficient data.

“For example, we have no data on the cellular immune response which is now probably driving the effectiveness of vaccines. This is a crucial missing assumption in the modelling.

“Some of their conclusions are different to the data emerging from South Africa in that the vaccines are holding up well against severe disease and death at present.

“There is a huge amount of uncertainty in these modelled estimates and we can only be confident about the impact of boosters against omicron when we have another month of real-world data on hospitalisation, ICU numbers and deaths.”

On Friday, health officials in South Africa confirmed that fewer people have died or required hospital treatment from omicron than in previous waves despite a record number of new infections.

Data from the city of Tshwane showed that the case fatality rate has plummeted for all age groups since the delta wave, even among the most elderly and vulnerable.

The death rate for over-80s is around 20 per cent compared to nearly 50 per cent in the delta wave. For 70 to 79-year-olds it has fallen from about 40 per cent to just 10 per cent.

‘Relatively small increases’​

“The hospitalisations are not increasing at such a dramatic rate,” said Michelle Groome, the head of Public Health Surveillance at South Africa’s National Institute for Communicable Diseases (NICD).

“We are starting to see some increases, but relatively small increases in deaths.”

On Friday, the UK Government reported 93,045 new cases of Covid-19, the third day in a row that a record number of daily cases has been reached since the pandemic began.

Hospital admissions have also risen by eight per cent in a week, to 900, although the vast majority of these are caused by delta. Deaths are continuing to fall, with 111 reported on Thursday, down 4.5 per cent since last week.

Prof Polly Roy, professor of virology at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, said: “There is a prevailing view that omicron represents a dramatically increased threat – but we don’t yet have all the evidence we need to know that.

“While continued spread of the virus does run the risk in reaching those who are vulnerable or unvaccinated, particularly in the winter months, the increased risk to the majority vaccinated population is probably marginal.

“While keeping up with your shots of the existing vaccine is good practice, lurching into precipitous social policies or change of vaccine are not.”

 

[yorkie]

I think a lot of people are losing respect for and/or patience in Whitty.

More evidence of deliberate Omicron scaremongering, this time by the UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA)



What a load of tosh.

The estimate of 200,000 "infections" per day was released without showing the methodology behind the calculation.

I'd like to see them run models for countries like Germany and Sweden both with / without masks, and then do a comparison to see what actually happens.

Note also the sentence in the article which suggests that, once again, Imperial College "modelling" is wide of the mark.

Their modelling is based on guesswork. Yes the models themselves could be quite accurate in theory, but the data going into them and the assumptions made by the models are often completely inadequate.

To be honest there could actually be 200k infections per day right now; there will certainly be far more exposures than that. But if an infection is asymptomatic and cleared within a few days and the individual is not (very) infectious then it really doesn't matter.

Those who are obsessed with case numbers are going to find their position increasingly untenable as Omicron appears to result in mostly asymptomatic or very mild cases. Omicron has been circulating in South Africa quite widely for several weeks now and the available evidence still suggests that there is a much lower rate of hospitalisations and deaths than with any of the previous variants. How long do we have to wait before the Governments in the UK will admit this? They can't go on forever denying it.

 

[bramling]

I think a lot of people are losing respect for and/or patience in Whitty.

I'd like to see them run models for countries like Germany and Sweden both with / without masks, and then do a comparison to see what actually happens.


Their modelling is based on guesswork. Yes the models themselves could be quite accurate in theory, but the data going into them and the assumptions made by the models are often completely inadequate.

To be honest there could actually be 200k infections per day right now; there will certainly be far more exposures than that. But if an infection is asymptomatic and cleared within a few days and the individual is not (very) infectious then it really doesn't matter.

Those who are obsessed with case numbers are going to find their position increasingly untenable as Omicron appears to result in mostly asymptomatic or very mild cases. Omicron has been circulating in South Africa quite widely for several weeks now and the available evidence still suggests that there is a much lower rate of hospitalisations and deaths than with any of the previous variants. How long do we have to wait before the Governments in the UK will admit this? They can't go on forever denying it.

One does wonder whether there will be some proper backlash if it does turn out to be a minor scare. The effects on some businesses will have been quite severe over the last couple of weeks, as well as the usual impacts on mental health and wellbeing.

 

[Eyersey468]

One does wonder whether there will be some proper backlash if it does turn out to be a minor scare. The effects on some businesses will have been quite severe over the last couple of weeks, as well as the usual impacts on mental health and wellbeing.

To be honest I hope there is a proper backlash if this does turn out minor. I've no respect or patience left for any of them.

 

[MikeWM]

One does wonder whether there will be some proper backlash if it does turn out to be a minor scare. The effects on some businesses will have been quite severe over the last couple of weeks, as well as the usual impacts on mental health and wellbeing.

I think the problem is *how* we determine that it is minor.

In our current setup with obsessive testing and no attempt made to distinguish between 'with' and 'of', it is clear that hospitalisations and deaths *as currently recorded* will fairly swiftly rise due to how infectious Omicron appears to be. Even if it is the most harmless thing ever, the numbers, as they report 'with' rather than 'of', won't show that - and a government keen to cover its own back probably isn't going to try to play it down at this point.

Usually you'd look at other stats to try to determine whether the majority is 'with' or 'of' - but in this case that's not going to work well either, because we've got excess hospital admissions and deaths *anyway* and have done for some months, for whatever reason (missed diagnostics, missed checkups, missed treatments or whatever).

Unfortunately it seems to me that *if* the government want to spin this as being serious, they'll have the stats to 'back that up'.

 

[joncombe]

SAGE are at it again.

The BBC are reporting that SAGE have stated that more measures are needed.

More stringent restrictions need to be brought in "very soon" in England if ministers want to stop hospital admissions reaching 3,000 a day, the government's scientific advisers say.
The BBC has seen leaked minutes of a meeting of the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies held on Thursday.

They are pushing for more restrictions stating they want a level of restrictions similar to the stage 1 or stage 2 of the unlocking last year (stage 2 banned indoor hospitality and hotels for example and the "rule of 6"). From this sentence, they are pushing for this before the new year. To quote

The record of the meeting goes on to say that measures equivalent to those in place after Step Two or Step One of the roadmap in England, if enacted early enough, "could substantially reduce the peak in hospital admissions and infections compared with Plan B alone".

"The timing of such measures is crucial," say the Sage minutes. "Delaying until 2022 would greatly reduce the effectiveness of such interventions and make it less likely that these would prevent considerable pressure on health and care settings."

Unfortunately I would be surprised if we get to New Year without the Government pushing (and probably implementing) further restrictions, but given the 100-strong rebellion last time it may be tricky to get through parliament.

 

[yorksrob]

That assumes such measures are effective in the first place.

 

[Eyersey468]

That assumes such measures are effective in the first place.

Since when did that stop them?

 

[Yew]

Their modelling is based on guesswork. Yes the models themselves could be quite accurate in theory, but the data going into them and the assumptions made by the models are often completely inadequate.

Indeed, the estimates of parameters going in rely on fermisation, the idea that you might be high for one variable, but it'll cancel out since you'll be low for the next one. I just don't think this works well for models with lots of exponents in them, as the larger numbers are unreasonably high. Imagine a situation where we square 3, +/- 0.5

3^2 = 9

2.5^2 = 6.25

3.5^2= 12.25

The relative residuals are skewed in the higher direction, and hence the large uncertainties, as the variables compound.

SAGE are at it again.

The BBC are reporting that SAGE have stated that more measures are needed.



They are pushing for more restrictions stating they want a level of restrictions similar to the stage 1 or stage 2 of the unlocking last year (stage 2 banned indoor hospitality and hotels for example and the "rule of 6"). From this sentence, they are pushing for this before the new year. To quote





Unfortunately I would be surprised if we get to New Year without the Government pushing (and probably implementing) further restrictions, but given the 100-strong rebellion last time it may be tricky to get through parliament.

3000 a day is high, but it's not NHS breaking levels of high, it's 3/4 of the January peak, for example. And we have to consider that a proportion would be 'incidental' admissions.

 

[brad465]

Schools have just broken up, and there's always been a decline in testing whenever this has happened this year. Maybe over the next 1-2 weeks less testing will help limit reported cases, which have surged in light of increased testing driven by the Omicron madness.

 

[Bikeman78]

redictably, Professor Pantsdown is banging the drums of doom again, predicting that there with be 5,000 Omicron deaths per DAY unless there are tighter restrictions in the next couple of weeks.

Remember the predicted 50,000 covid deaths in Sweden? I suspect I'll be dead before that figure is reached. Why would anyone listen to him?

 

[danm14]

The Times is reporting that an "Omicron circuit breaker" will take place in England for at least two weeks, likely starting on December 27th or 28th.

This will see a return to the "Step 2" restrictions that were in place from April 12th to May 17th 2021 - i.e. a complete ban on indoor visits, the reintroduction of the Rule of Six outdoors, and the closure of most non-essential businesses that operate indoors (notable exceptions include retail, beauty, gyms and public buildings).

Shielding will also be reintroduced, despite this not being part of the Step 2 restrictions in April 2021 - however shielding has always been implemented as guidance and not law.

The Times & The Sunday Times

News and opinion from The Times & The Sunday Times

www.thetimes.co.uk

Meeting other people indoors would be banned for two weeks after Christmas under plans being drawn up for a “circuit breaker” to slow Omicron.

Ministers are due imminently to present proposals under which England would return to restrictions last seen in April after models suggested that this could halve a peak of hospital admissions that might otherwise break the NHS.

 

[duncanp]

SAGE are at it again.

The BBC are reporting that SAGE have stated that more measures are needed.



They are pushing for more restrictions stating they want a level of restrictions similar to the stage 1 or stage 2 of the unlocking last year (stage 2 banned indoor hospitality and hotels for example and the "rule of 6"). From this sentence, they are pushing for this before the new year. To quote





Unfortunately I would be surprised if we get to New Year without the Government pushing (and probably implementing) further restrictions, but given the 100-strong rebellion last time it may be tricky to get through parliament.

Yawn.

I seem to remember a SAGE scaremongering story a few days ago where they were predicting 6,000 hospitalisations per day unless the government implemented further restrictions.

So perhaps this is progress in a way, as SAGE are realising that Omicron isn't going to be as bad as first thought.

And 3,000 hospitalisations a day is, er, lower than the peak we saw in January this year, especially if Omicron does turn out to be milder, with people staying in hospital for shorter periods than with Delta.

I don't think there is a cat in hells chance that the government will do what SAGE want in the new year, especially after the by election result, and the promise that any changes will be debated in parliament first.

 

[Class 33]

Well it's not looking good. Just had a quick check of the news, only to find headline news of plans for a 2 week lockdown being drawn up. Jesus Christ. NO NO NO. We really REALLY do NOT need yet another wreckless damaging lockdown for crying out loud!!!! Omicron is currently only causing mild cold like illness!!! The NHS is NOT overwhelmed. Absolutely no reasons whatsoever for another bloody lockdown!!! I'm so angry to read this news this morning.

Duncanp, I really hope you're right with what you said above.

 

[Eyersey468]

Well it's not looking good. Just had a quick check of the news, only to find headline news of plans for a 2 week lockdown being drawn up. Jesus Christ. NO NO NO. We really REALLY do NOT need yet another wreckless damaging lockdown for crying out loud!!!! Omicron is currently only causing mild cold like illness!!! The NHS is NOT overwhelmed. Absolutely no reasons whatsoever for another bloody lockdown!!! I'm so angry to read this news this morning.

Duncanp, I really hope you're right with what you said above.

I completely agree, yet another lockdown is the last thing this country needs.

 

[Pete_uk]

I really really really hope people stick the middle finger up to an lockdown. The hospitality industry is stuffed as it is.

 

[chris11256]

What the articles don’t say in their catchy headline is that these are simply proposals drawn up by civil servants, not things are have actually decided on.

 

[duncanp]

Well it's not looking good. Just had a quick check of the news, only to find headline news of plans for a 2 week lockdown being drawn up. Jesus Christ. NO NO NO. We really REALLY do NOT need yet another wreckless damaging lockdown for crying out loud!!!! Omicron is currently only causing mild cold like illness!!! The NHS is NOT overwhelmed. Absolutely no reasons whatsoever for another bloody lockdown!!! I'm so angry to read this news this morning.

Duncanp, I really hope you're right with what you said above.

The BBC radio report this morning said that the leaked SAGE paper ( "leaked by who and why?" ) says that the are "many uncertainties" about the future path of the Omicron variant.

So how the <bleeping> hell can they say that "stringent restrictions" will be needed if there are so many uncertainties?

This has all the hallmarks of a deliberate leak in order to test what the reaction is, and to soften people up for a slightly lower level of restrictions, such as Plan C.

We know that a two week circuit breaker lockdown won't work, and in any case there are only SIXTY FIVE people in hospital with Omicron at the moment.

The Daily Mail is also reporting that "estimates that Omicron cases are doubling every two days have been downgraded because people are behaving more cautiously"

So I think that there will be a package of support for the hospitality sector announced on Monday, accompanied by messaging about reducing contacts etc.

Given the level of opposition from his own MPs, Boris Johnson is not going to get away with a two week full lockdown unless there is clear justification for it, backed up by clear evidence and data.

Such evidence and data is not there at the moment.

 

[bramling]

What the articles don’t say in their catchy headline is that these are simply proposals drawn up by civil servants, not things are have actually decided on.

So, in practice, it will be SAGE versus backbenchers, with de-Peppa Pig in the middle.

Possibly the difference this time is the stakes are high, personally, for Johnson. Any wrong move at this point and Sir Graham's desk will be getting heavier.

I'd say it would only be viable if hospitalisations really go up this week, and so far there seems little sign of that happening - though of course there is always the possibility of that changing.

 

[adc82140]

So, in practice, it will be SAGE versus backbenchers, with de-Peppa Pig in the middle.

Possibly the difference this time is the stakes are high, personally, for Johnson. Any wrong move at this point and Sir Graham's desk will be getting heavier.

I'd say it would only be viable if hospitalisations really go up this week, and so far there seems little sign of that happening - though of course there is always the possibility of that changing.

He won't do it. Firstly most of the legislation has expired, so it needs to go through parliament. A 99 member revolt would seem like a tiny amount this time. Secondly it would undermine the booster programme. We have all been told to get boosted, what would that look like if everyone was then rewarded with a lockdown.

I've just read the article. Lockdown is one of a "range of measures drawn up by civil servants". Well of course it is. They would also have drawn up at the other end of the spectrum a plan to remove all restrictions. That's the definition of a "range".

This Times is prone to making things up. Remember the half term lockdown?

 

[yorksrob]

It will be interesting to see if SAGE's predictions come to pass.

 

[Smidster]

It will be interesting to see if SAGE's predictions come to pass.

They absolutely won't - but that won't matter as we all have to face the consequences of restrictions.

I think we can right off 2022 till Easter - anyone who believes that anything will last for "2 weeks" needs help.

What grates the most is that the Government are putting far more weight on a discredited model than real world evidence from other countries where the world is not falling apart.

ENOUGH!

 

[greyman42]

Yawn.

I seem to remember a SAGE scaremongering story a few days ago where they were predicting 6,000 hospitalisations per day unless the government implemented further restrictions.

So perhaps this is progress in a way, as SAGE are realising that Omicron isn't going to be as bad as first thought.

And 3,000 hospitalisations a day is, er, lower than the peak we saw in January this year, especially if Omicron does turn out to be milder, with people staying in hospital for shorter periods than with Delta.

I don't think there is a cat in hells chance that the government will do what SAGE want in the new year, especially after the by election result, and the promise that any changes will be debated in parliament first.

If SAGE have realised that they have got it badly wrong then they will be desperate for a lockdown, so that they can say that without it we would have been correct.

 

[philosopher]

So, in practice, it will be SAGE versus backbenchers, with de-Peppa Pig in the middle.

Possibly the difference this time is the stakes are high, personally, for Johnson. Any wrong move at this point and Sir Graham's desk will be getting heavier.

I'd say it would only be viable if hospitalisations really go up this week, and so far there seems little sign of that happening - though of course there is always the possibility of that changing.

The one silver lining from any potential lockdown, is that if it results in Boris losing his job, then no future Tory PM will risk initiating one in the future, knowing that they could lose their job over it. Also it will be first time, I think that the policy of lockdowns has resulted in major world leader being ousted, which could have significant implications for the rest of the world too.

 

[Eyersey468]

He won't do it. Firstly most of the legislation has expired, so it needs to go through parliament. A 99 member revolt would seem like a tiny amount this time. Secondly it would undermine the booster programme. We have all been told to get boosted, what would that look like if everyone was then rewarded with a lockdown.

I've just read the article. Lockdown is one of a "range of measures drawn up by civil servants". Well of course it is. They would also have drawn up at the other end of the spectrum a plan to remove all restrictions. That's the definition of a "range".

This Times is prone to making things up. Remember the half term lockdown?

All the press are good at making stuff up not just the Times

The one silver lining from any potential lockdown, is that if it results in Boris losing his job, then no future Tory PM will risk initiating one in the future, knowing that they could lose their job over it. Also it will be first time, I think that the policy of lockdowns has resulted in major world leader being ousted, which could have significant implications for the rest of the world too.

I wonder if any other Labour PM would risk one if that was the case

 

[Mag_seven]

All the press are good at making stuff up not just the Times

That's why when the pandemic is over I want the inevitable enquiry to also focus on how the media have behaved. They have behaved appallingly in my opinion almost seemingly pressurising the government to continually introduce restrictions and continually parroting doom and gloom "warnings" from experts without allowing counterbalancing arguments.

 

[Eyersey468]

That's why when the pandemic is over I want the inevitable enquiry to also focus on how the media have behaved. They have behaved appallingly in my opinion almost seemingly pressurising the government to continually introduce restrictions and continually parroting doom and gloom "warnings" from experts without allowing counterbalancing arguments.

I completely agree, though as with any inquiry against the government I suspect it would be a whitewash and an attempt to avoid blame

 

[21C101]

I completely agree, though as with any inquiry against the government I suspect it would be a whitewash and an attempt to avoid blame

If Johnson had any sense he would have appointed former supreme court law lord Lord Justice Sumption to lead it.

 

[nedchester]

Although I do not agree with vaccine passports / compulsory vaccinations for jobs etc I do think it is heading to a situation where the majority of us who've made the right decision to look at the evidence and got vaccinated shouldn't be restricted because of them.

So maybe restriction those who have not been vaccinated (by choice not for medical reasons) may be needed. I will say that I am uncomfortable with this but accept it may happen,

With 26 million now boosted I can't see those people wanting further restrictions because of anti-vax idiots.

Top

 

[DustyBin]

What the articles don’t say in their catchy headline is that these are simply proposals drawn up by civil servants, not things are have actually decided on.

You’re absolutely right, however we’ve been here before. The modus operandi seems to be to leak the plan to the press so that it doesn’t come as a shock later on……

If SAGE have realised that they have got it badly wrong then they will be desperate for a lockdown, so that they can say that without it we would have been correct.

A rather worrying but very real possibility.

That's why when the pandemic is over I want the inevitable enquiry to also focus on how the media have behaved. They have behaved appallingly in my opinion almost seemingly pressurising the government to continually introduce restrictions and continually parroting doom and gloom "warnings" from experts without allowing counterbalancing arguments.

I’ve always supported press freedom, vehemently so in fact. No longer however; they’re rabid, out of control and are doing real damage to this country and it’s people.

Although I do not agree with vaccine passports / compulsory vaccinations for jobs etc I do think it is heading to a situation where the majority of us who've made the right decision to look at the evidence and got vaccinated shouldn't be restricted because of them.

So maybe restriction those who have not been vaccinated (by choice not for medical reasons) may be needed. I will say that I am uncomfortable with this but accept it may happen,

With 26 million now boosted I can't see those people wanting further restrictions because of anti-vax idiots.

Top

Here we go again……

I know you’re angry but please try and think for yourself. These restrictions aren’t being introduced because a few million people declined the vaccine. And even if they were, it wouldn’t be on medical grounds it would effectively be a punishment. I get that you think we can comply our way out of this, but can you not see that the goalposts keep moving? And can you not see that there’s always somebody to blame (never the government though obviously)?

You do yourself no favours referring to people as “anti-vax idiots” by the way.