That would certainly put the cat amongst the pigeons!!!
They will be going, but until an order/decision for their replacement is made we have no idea when. Given the fleet size and the time it's taking to get 701s into SWR it won't be a quick withdrawal.
Yes I went past the Chart Leacon site recently and while large amounts of clearing have been made, no sign of any siding laying yet (assuming I was looking in the right place).
i thought that it was more about reducing conflicting moves west of Lewisham. Most Hayes line passengers probably do not want to go to Victoria via Lewisham because there are other alternative (LCDR) routes that will get them quicker.
The 707 arrivals might see some Networker sets going, but given Southeastern needs more capacity it would be wrong to make a like-for-like replacement of carriages. 466s are the most suitable for early withdrawal due to less PRM compliance and now they don't operate on their own in passenger service, any 10 car needs can be serviced by 707 and 376 formations. All the 465s could do with sticking around until a complete withdrawal is possible so that more 12 car allocations are possible.
Where would they get them from though? SE definitely need to retain the ones they currently have, but will Southern actually give any up?
You're going to have a possible cascade of other units to free up a few more 387s south of the river; as well as 6 387s on the c2c. Few possibilities exist...
It's more what trains that operate all over the shop may displace some units with shoes currently operating on AC...
The booked work on /1 service groups is because the /0 units need to cycle via Three Bridges Depot.
I believe some Rainham (?) services run to / from Bedford and cycle the units off that way. Is that right?
If they're doubling the frequency of SEML services to Ashford but no extra stock of mainline capability (the 707s have no toilets) are being brought in with the timetable change, it would make sense if the stopping services to Ashford planned have Networker allocations, where 707s can cover for some of their metro operations. I can also see them returning to the Maidstone East line in greater numbers than since the 377s arrived, as that line frequency is also being doubled at the expense of Chatham mainline stoppers. As the latter are commonly Networker formations, it would be an easy internal cascade, although they could be limited to the Maidstone East-Blackfriars' services if 8 car capacity and 377 features are needed down to Ashford still.
Even if they don't do regular runs, they may wish to have the capability for Networkers to go back to Ashford for resilience purposes. For example, I suspect there are enough 375s to do all the VIC-DVP runs on a Saturday on the normal off-peak timetable, but one of the 5 allocations for the stopper has been a Networker, presumably to help retain route knowledge, as they have to do weekday Dover runs after morning peak services. Also while the 466 derogations prevent this now, there were occasional 466 runs on the Medway valley line at times that only 375s formed all the services, before one 466 was brought back into use between September 2018 and December 2019.