New lockdown in England, including school closures, announced by Johnson, 4/1/21

Peter Mugridge · 25 Jan 2021

yorkie said:
We don't need to reach full 'herd immunity' to end the epidemic; simply reaching 'endemic equilibrium' (which we have with hundreds of "common cold" viruses, some of which are coronaviruses) will suffice.

Yorkie - I have a suspicion we may be approaching that point; I mentioned this yesterday but in another thread, links here:

How much longer will social distancing go on for in the UK?

In all honesty, I don't think we've ever seen the numbers drop so quickly, I'm struggling for an explanation... Is it possible that we are closer than we think to endemic equilibrium? I note the suggestion in another reply that a switch to lateral flow tests may be a reason, but that wouldn't...

www.railforums.co.uk

Is it possible that we are closer than we think to endemic equilibrium?

That was a reply to a discussion on something I posted couple of pages earlier in the same thread, that post being this one:

How much longer will social distancing go on for in the UK?

I wonder if/when the BBC will report this move.

www.railforums.co.uk

According to the government's own figures, they already are - and this is too soon for the vaccinations to be kicking in.

( Edited to add - the links seem to go to the correct posts, but the descriptions being displayed appear to be for earlier posts on the same pages? )

RailUK Forums

bramling · 25 Jan 2021

yorkie said:
We will take our lives back from the authoritarians this Spring, mark my words we will.

I have to say I am becoming persuaded by the people on here who think it is going to be a task to scotch those who seem to like the concept of lockdown.

Unfortunately masses of people going out for walks or on beaches doesn’t claim our lives back. We only get that when all the closed places are back open again, especially the cultural-type ones, and one wonders how many are going to be still solvent by then.

It’s all going too far at the moment, and a significant minority of people have completely lost their sense.

Sorry to be quite negative on all this, however I find the whole thing rather depressing at the moment, and it’s difficult to see positives.

yorkie · 25 Jan 2021

Peter Mugridge said:
( Edited to add - the links seem to go to the correct posts, but the descriptions being displayed appear to be for earlier posts on the same pages? )

You can click the quite button to generate a quote and then copy & paste the quite here; that would display the posts.

If you provide a link, without quoting, the forum software simply tries to display the first available text on that hyperlink.

Edit: anyway the links did work and I agree with you; at least 20% of the population have some immunity through vaccinations and infections (and probably more like 25% or maybe even 30%) and of the remainder, at least a third aren't susceptible to getting Covid symptoms anyway.

Peter Mugridge · 25 Jan 2021

yorkie said:
You can click the quite button to generate a quote and then copy & paste the quote here; that would display the posts.

If you provide a link, without quoting, the forum software simply tries to display the first available text on that hyperlink.

Thanks; I'll try that now. Didn't know the software did that...

Edited: I think I've made a bit of a mess of that!!!

Class 33 · 25 Jan 2021

Here is the Downing Street News Conference from 30th December 2020, just a few weeks ago. At the 21m11s point Johnson says "I think there will obviously become a point when we've made so much progress with the vaccines and also with tough tiering that there will be different options. We hope that comes as fast as possible. I think that umm... uhhh.... we've heard previously from Chris Whitty and others that uhhh.... April ..... uhhh.... April the 5th Easter, we really are confident that things will be very very much better. And obviously we'll try and bring that date forward as fast as we can.".

So Johnson, you say April the 5th Easter - or even before then, things will be very very much better. Well we really hope you don't let us down on that. Because it doesn't inspire much confidence that you've already extended the Coronavirus lockdown laws until July!!!

py_megapixel · 25 Jan 2021

Class 33 said:
Here is the Downing Street News Conference from 30th December 2020, just a few weeks ago. At the 21m11s point Johnson says "I think there will obviously become a point when we've made so much progress with the vaccines and also with tough tiering that there will be different options. We hope that comes as fast as possible. I think that umm... uhhh.... we've heard previously from Chris Whitty and others that uhhh.... April ..... uhhh.... April the 5th Easter, we really are confident that things will be very very much better. And obviously we'll try and bring that date forward as fast as we can.".

So Johnson, you say April the 5th Easter - or even before then, things will be very very much better. Well we really hope you don't let us down on that. Because it doesn't inspire much confidence that you've already extended the Coronavirus lockdown laws until July!!!

With all due respect - does anyone really pay attention to any of that anymore?

The government's job these days appears to be little more than just making up numbers that sound vaguely plausible... so far, they haven't been right at all.

scarby · 25 Jan 2021

bramling said:
I have to say I am becoming persuaded by the people on here who think it is going to be a task to scotch those who seem to like the concept of lockdown.

Unfortunately masses of people going out for walks or on beaches doesn’t claim our lives back. We only get that when all the closed places are back open again, especially the cultural-type ones, and one wonders how many are going to be still solvent by then.

It’s all going too far at the moment, and a significant minority of people have completely lost their sense.

Sorry to be quite negative on all this, however I find the whole thing rather depressing at the moment, and it’s difficult to see positives.

Looking at what is going on in the UK from the distance and perspective of living in Sweden, it appears that a large number of people in the UK are suffering from herd mentality and have completely lost the ability to make rational judgements.

I notice that external media coverage of Sweden has plummeted since the raving over its response failed to produce a so-called lockdown in the country, and the longer it goes on without shutting down the more it becomes the elephant in the room. Speaking of figures, the current outbreak in Sweden is decreasing significantly (in line with Farr's Law of the rise and fall epidemics) and healthcare hasn't been overwhelmed despite all the doom-laden predictions from afar.

yorksrob · 25 Jan 2021

scarby said:
Looking at what is going on in the UK from the distance and perspective of living in Sweden, it appears that a large number of people in the UK are suffering from herd mentality and have completely lost the ability to make rational judgements.

I notice that external media coverage of Sweden has plummeted since the raving over its response failed to produce a so-called lockdown in the country, and the longer it goes on without shutting down the more it becomes the elephant in the room. Speaking of figures, the current outbreak in Sweden is decreasing significantly (in line with Farr's Law of the rise and fall epidemics) and healthcare hasn't been overwhelmed despite all the doom-laden predictions from afar.

A very timely and interesting intervention.

I would expect to see a lot more coverage of how things are progressing in Sweden, however it doesn't fit the agenda of the lockdown enthusiasts.

RomeoCharlie71 · 25 Jan 2021

https://twitter.com/joepike/status/1353649558367166464

NEW: @BorisJohnson tells broadcast pool he is 'looking at the potential of relaxing some measures' before mid-February.

Afraid I can't find much else (the other tweet in the thread relates to enforced quarantine), but hopefully this provides reassurance to some of the pessimists!

Edit: this has now been added: https://twitter.com/joepike/status/1353658183252930560

NEW: No 10 source says PM meant that the 'looking at' will happen before mid-Feb, not the 'relaxing'.

brad465 · 25 Jan 2021

RomeoCharlie71 said:
https://twitter.com/joepike/status/1353649558367166464

Afraid I can't find much else (the other tweet in the thread relates to enforced quarantine), but hopefully this provides reassurance to some of the pessimists!

Again this is speculative, but easing travel restrictions for exercise and limits on its amount would be a relaxation that doesn't cause too many issues, while giving reassurance of an improving picture.

HLE · 25 Jan 2021

Opening outdoor sports facilities subject to the current exercise guidance/law would be a start. Same as last May. 2 balls in golf for example.

Schools should be the first thing to open up but they're not the lowest risk of transmission. Can see Boris backtracking on that pledge.

Class 33 · 25 Jan 2021

RomeoCharlie71 said:
https://twitter.com/joepike/status/1353649558367166464

Afraid I can't find much else (the other tweet in the thread relates to enforced quarantine), but hopefully this provides reassurance to some of the pessimists!

Edit: this has now been added: https://twitter.com/joepike/status/1353658183252930560

Well that leak to the media makes a pleasant change from leaks to the media of something like "PM to announce tougher restrictions this week" or "PM to announce national lockdown this week" that we've had all too much of recently. So this gives a little confidence at least. But let's see....

brad465 · 25 Jan 2021

HLE said:
Opening outdoor sports facilities subject to the current exercise guidance/law would be a start. Same as last May. 2 balls in golf for example.

Schools should be the first thing to open up but they're not the lowest risk of transmission. Can see Boris backtracking on that pledge.

Yes after lockdown 1 they had limited school opening around the time of non-essential shops reopening, a month before hospitality returned, then school reopening fully was a further 2 months away.

HLE · 25 Jan 2021

brad465 said:
Yes after lockdown 1 they had limited school opening around the time of non-essential shops reopening, a month before hospitality returned, then school reopening fully was a further 2 months away.

Exactly. No point making the first easing schools, outdoor activities carry the lowest risk so it makes sense to a simpleton like me to ease those restrictions first, subject to the usual measures we've all become used to.

roversfan2001 · 25 Jan 2021

brad465 said:
Yes after lockdown 1 they had limited school opening around the time of non-essential shops reopening, a month before hospitality returned, then school reopening fully was a further 2 months away.

I think the academic year had something to do with that. Children do little learning in the last week or two of the school year (Years 10 and 11 excepted) so it wouldn't have made much sense to send them back at the start of July.

PHILIPE · 25 Jan 2021

I've just seen Boris on TV visiting a vaccination centre for an unessential photoshoot and preventing staff from getting on their work by his presence. Surely he should work from home as he tells everybody else or go to the House when essential.

Mag_seven · 25 Jan 2021

RomeoCharlie71 said:
https://twitter.com/joepike/status/1353649558367166464

Afraid I can't find much else (the other tweet in the thread relates to enforced quarantine), but hopefully this provides reassurance to some of the pessimists!

Edit: this has now been added: https://twitter.com/joepike/status/1353658183252930560

The PM later said "I'm making it up as I go along".

Nicholas Lewis · 25 Jan 2021

HLE said:
Opening outdoor sports facilities subject to the current exercise guidance/law would be a start. Same as last May. 2 balls in golf for example.

Schools should be the first thing to open up but they're not the lowest risk of transmission. Can see Boris backtracking on that pledge.

Yes schools should be opened asap but they are vectors of transmission so need to be extremely cautious but its wrong to have an order of relaxation thats dependent on the schools being first and anything with limited transmission like some outdoor sports/activities not being allowed is plain daft and MPs need to put the pressure on as that will alleviate some of the mental health issues.

In respect of schools there should have been a better strategy by now with the likes of reduced class sizes, start times etc to provide some mitigation. They could have created online learning for certain subject areas that could be shared between schools to free up some teachers to take smaller classes but this govt has shown itself to abysmal in any sort of emergency planning.

brad465 · 25 Jan 2021

RomeoCharlie71 said:
https://twitter.com/joepike/status/1353649558367166464

Afraid I can't find much else (the other tweet in the thread relates to enforced quarantine), but hopefully this provides reassurance to some of the pessimists!

Edit: this has now been added: https://twitter.com/joepike/status/1353658183252930560

This does now appear to be the subject of a Guardian article:

Johnson 'looking at potential of relaxing some lockdown measures' next month

PM says government will review data before 15 February but highlights risk of ‘premature relaxation’

www.theguardian.com

The government will look at the possibility of lifting some restrictions in England from mid-February, Boris Johnson has said, though he confirmed the government was looking at tougher measures on traveller quarantine.

The prime minister suggested the government would examine the data in the run-up to the 15 February review date to see if some restrictions could be lifted, including the return of pupils, but refused to commit to them being back at school before the Easter holidays.

“The one to four groups are going to be vaccinated by 15 February, before then we will be looking at the potential of relaxing some measures,” he said, referring to the most vulnerable groups who are being given the first jabs.

As is being covered more in the protests/unrest thread, I do wonder if the scenes now being seen in other parts of Europe are leading to our Government being concerned of similar here, so are potentially going to initiate some relaxation to try and stave off such behaviour here.

initiation · 25 Jan 2021

Domh245 said:
but I see no reason to think that they would be in use much beyond the end of May

Domh245 said:
It may even just be the case that 6 months is the 'default' time period that gets used for this sort of emergency legislation, but I do believe there's some method behind it as well - if they're 50% sure they'll need it beyond April but 99.9% sure they won't need it after July, then obviously they'd go for the July window.

Default period, lol. if they think it is May then why not say May instead of July? Once anyone has a certain power it is difficult to remove that power as evidenced by the current situation.

I would recommend this lecture by Lord Sumption covering some legal/legislative aspects. The use of the Public Health Act over the much better safeguarded Civil Contingencies Act means we have rule by decree with little in the way of oversight.

Even when it is debated in parliament the votes are retrospectively done or are held in only a few hours. Remember how long debates were about Brexit or the war in Iraq -yet here we have laws banning you from seeing your family or from opening your business passed in a matter of hours.

DorkingMain · 25 Jan 2021

Not sure if it's been posted here yet but the Telegraph reckons we will return to reduced restrictions from April (when all over 50s / clinically vulnerable have had their first dose), with a complete end to restrictions from July (when a significant proportion of all adults will have been vaccinated).

Will believe that when I see it.

yorksrob · 25 Jan 2021

DorkingMain said:
Not sure if it's been posted here yet but the Telegraph reckons we will return to reduced restrictions from April (when all over 50s / clinically vulnerable have had their first dose), with a complete end to restrictions from July (when a significant proportion of all adults will have been vaccinated).

Will believe that when I see it.

That's far too late for the "stay at home" order to stay in place.

They need to be enabling outdoor activity at least before then.

Nicholas Lewis · 25 Jan 2021

Hancocks half hour didn't give much away but a clear message coming through is hospitalisations are too high at double the first peak.

Hancock says relaxation is down to death rate, hospitalisations, new variants and how successful vaccine roll out is (not efficacy!) but no quantification given

>60 year old admission rates is Jenny Harries main concern

Yew · 25 Jan 2021

Nicholas Lewis said:
Hancock says relaxation is down to death rate, hospitalisations, new variants and how successful vaccine roll out is (not efficacy!) but no quantification given

We've got no chance then, they will keep chucking out new variants for forever and a day, and the evidence will be marginal at best.

Islineclear3_1 · 25 Jan 2021

PHILIPE said:
I've just seen Boris on TV visiting a vaccination centre for an unessential photoshoot and preventing staff from getting on their work by his presence. Surely he should work from home as he tells everybody else or go to the House when essential.

Ironic that his press secretary is now self-isolating... any connection...?

PM's press secretary Allegra Stratton to self-isolate due to Covid rules

Allegra Stratton is the latest key government aide forced into self-isolation during pandemic

www.theguardian.com

/

PM's press secretary Allegra Stratton to self-isolate due to Covid rules

Edit: the unessential photoshoot was this morning

MikeWM · 25 Jan 2021

initiation said:
I would recommend this lecture by Lord Sumption covering some legal/legislative aspects. The use of the Public Health Act over the much better safeguarded Civil Contingencies Act means we have rule by decree with little in the way of oversight.

I agree, though am wary of arguing too strongly in that direction given the supine 'we want more restrictions!' Parliament that we have currently, which means such oversight is fairly academic anyway. And the CCA gives the government effectively unlimited power to override any legislation on the statute book [1] - at least the PHA route has *some* limits if something proposed would clash with existing primary legislation.

[1] except for the Human Rights Act (if I recall correctly), though that's proven about as useless as every other supposed check and balance over the last year.

PHILIPE · 26 Jan 2021

Announced that Boris is going on his non-essential travels again just illustrating that he can't follow his own rules

www.thenational.scot/news/19036993.boris-johnson-reportedly-coming-scotland-week-bid-save-union/

A SCOTTISH Government minister has said Boris Johnson will be breaking strict rules on travelling during the Covid pandemic if he comes to Scotland this week to campaign against independence.

According to the Sun, the Prime Minister will use the flying visit to "make an impassioned plea for Scots to reject narrow separatism, and hail the benefits of being in the UK".

But Christina McKelvie, the Minister for Older People and Equalities doubted whether this would count as "essential work".
AD
The SNP quipped that, if it is the case that the Prime Minister's visit is essential, then the Union "really is in peril".
News of Johnson's planned visit comes just days after the SNP unveiled plans to hold an independence referendum - even if Downing Street refuse to grant their permission.

nlogax · 26 Jan 2021

PHILIPE said:
Announced that Boris is going on his non-essential travels again just illustrating that he can't follow his own rules

www.thenational.scot/news/19036993.boris-johnson-reportedly-coming-scotland-week-bid-save-union/

Sorely tempted as I am to go along with the snark re. his visit, BJ is still the PM of the entire UK. Should he just stay in No.10 and not travel anywhere in his role?

PHILIPE · 26 Jan 2021

nlogax said:
Sorely tempted as I am to go along with the snark re. his visit, BJ is still the PM of the entire UK. Should he just stay in No.10 and not travel anywhere in his role?

The virus doesn't differentiate between the PM and anybody else

nlogax · 26 Jan 2021

PHILIPE said:
The virus doesn't differentiate between the PM and anybody else

Doesn't matter. He's the PM - he's still got a job to do of being seen to run the country and if it means traveling five miles or five hundred then so be it.

New lockdown in England, including school closures, announced by Johnson, 4/1/21

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PM's press secretary Allegra Stratton to self-isolate due to Covid rules​

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PM's press secretary Allegra Stratton to self-isolate due to Covid rules