Various consultations on the May 2022 East Coast Mainline timetable

bramling · 29 Jun 2021

Class 170101 said:
It won't be far short of a fully planned timetable, final submission is September time.

Fair point; it’s frightening to thing we’re nearly July, this year seems to have flown by! I still have it in my head we’re at the start of the year - the general lack of summer weather probably isn’t helping that...

One supposes this has already been floated round the various stakeholder groups then. It does seem that some of the user groups around the northern end of the branch seem pretty influential in getting what they want. Meanwhile Ashwell seems to get star treatment every time, it gets a quite extraordinary service for what is still a fairly quiet station (especially off-peak).

I’d expect there to be some serious gripes from Letchworth and Hitchin over this timetable. Stevenage’s service seems broadly comparable to now.

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Aictos · 29 Jun 2021

Just one question, what advantages does this timetable deliver over the existing timetable with the exception of Welwyn Garden City to Sevenoaks finally happening which delivers a 10 minute frequency between the Core and Finsbury Park plus it's a more effective use of the fleet by running though and not having Welwyn GC to Kings Cross and London Blackfriars to Sevenoaks as two different fleets.

swt_passenger · 29 Jun 2021

Class 170101 said:
It won't be far short of a fully planned timetable, final submission is September time.

The combined ECML changes in May 2022 affect the entire east side of the country, affecting LNER, TPE, XC, EMR, Northern, Scotrail, and GN and TL. Consultation is only to look for unintended consequences that can be quickly fixed, it’s not going to change the underlying timetable at this stage.

Also, there has already been a certain amount of discussion about the GN and TL changes in the main 2022 consultation thread here:

Various consultations on the May 2022 East Coast Mainline timetable

Mod Note: It appears that there are currently four separate consultations underway between CrossCountry, LNER, Transpennine Express, Northern and Great Northern/Thameslink relating to the May 2022 timetable change and their ECML services. Links to all four are below and some documents have been...

www.railforums.co.uk

Ianno87 · 29 Jun 2021

bramling said:
I’d expect there to be some serious gripes from Letchworth and Hitchin over this timetable.

That is largely going to depend on how much of the traditional 9-5 commute comes back.

Failed Unit · 29 Jun 2021

I guess winners and losers. Not sure why Cambridge services passing is a problem. The Kings Lynn service typically passes the Cambridge slow at WGC without issue.

But although Letchworth / Hitchin may not be happy all the seats are gone on the faster trains. The stations south of Stevenage may be happy they could get a seat and the loss of the 700s will be a big plus.

Even today some people at WGC avoid the ex Cambridge to get a seat on the starter. It is a pity the long gaps at Stevenage still remain if you want to travel from WGC (and others) to Peterborough.

overall it is worse then the previous timetable, which was worse than the pre-2018 timetable.

MikeWM · 29 Jun 2021

I commented on this briefly in the 'East Coast' thread, but a few points from someone at the Ely end:

- Why are the Kings Lynn trains in the 'Thameslink' timetable rather than the 'Great Northern' one?

- At least - as is currently the case - they seem to have worked out how to get the up Ely starters to trail the XC service rather than go out ahead of it and then dwell at Cambridge while it overtakes. That's a big improvement over the 2018 timetable.

- I see many (though not all) King Lynn servies have 5-6 minutes dwell time at Cambridge. To join/divide 8/12 cars, or is almost everything 8 going forwards?

- I guess we're never going to get the 'later last train north of Cambridge' that we were promised in the 2018 draft timetable.

- There's no Sunday proposed timetable, which is what really needs improvement at both Cambridge and Ely. Currently, in the up direction, the departures from both Ely and Cambridge are bunched together in a very unhelpful manner. (And have I ever mentioned how poor it is that the first departure from Ely isn't until 0857? Well, maybe once or twice

bramling · 29 Jun 2021

Failed Unit said:
I guess winners and losers. Not sure why Cambridge services passing is a problem. The Kings Lynn service typically passes the Cambridge slow at WGC without issue.

But although Letchworth / Hitchin may not be happy all the seats are gone on the faster trains. The stations south of Stevenage may be happy they could get a seat and the loss of the 700s will be a big plus.

I'm not sure that's what will happen in practice.

My suspicion is that there will be quite a few from Royston who will take the slower service in order to get pick of the seats, this will likely be filled up by Hitchin, perhaps with a few standees from Welwyn North happy to have a quick journey. Remember it's only going to be an 8-car (presumably).

The Letchworth starter is likely to fill up considerably at Letchworth, Hitchin, Knebworth and Welwyn North, meaning few seats by the time of arrival at Welwyn. This in turn will no doubt displace people onto the Sevenoaks service as you say, with some crowding at the London end.

One of the good things about May 18 was the Baldock starters acted as really good commuter busters for Baldock, Letchworth and Hitchin, and at the same time offered Knebworth and Welwyn North a decent fast service, perhaps with seats on good days. This will put everything straight back to 2017 when people were taking the slow services to get a seat.

Ianno87 said:
That is largely going to depend on how much of the traditional 9-5 commute comes back.

It is starting to come now; those car parks are filling again as of the last couple of weeks.

Failed Unit · 29 Jun 2021

I guess we will see. 2018 told us that this is virtually a done deal and it is rare to have feedback listened to. At WGC and Hatfield the only way you get a seat now is taking one from someone leaving (so it can’t be worse). A reasonable amount of people get off at both these stations. But no idea where they got on. I can’t see many going beyond Letchworth to be honest. But a peak link that has existed for many years is gone now.

Bald Rick · 29 Jun 2021

Class 170101 said:
It won't be far short of a fully planned timetable, final submission is September time.

August...

PR1Berske · 29 Jun 2021

I don't believe for one second that it is "demand driven" for Newcastle et. al. to lose 1tph to other northern cities, nor that it is "demand driven" for an additional London service to be added to the NE

What I believe is "London gets what London wants," and it's a shame that this consultation won't address the lack of northern connectivity as a result of slashing Newcastle to York, Airport to Victoria etc.

DanNCL · 29 Jun 2021

Jonny said:
Meanwhile, the North of Tyne Mayor has gone wading into the consultation without, seemingly, the full facts. Aided and abetted by mis-reporting by the Newcastle Chronicle (per the second line in the quote box, which corresponds to pre-pandemic timetables).

Edit: please be aware that this is a piece of yellow journalism, with only minimal comment.

Mayor wants 'irrational' rail shakeup put on hold

Adding a third train per hour between London and Newcastle will mean that the North East's services to Manchester could be halved from next May

www.chroniclelive.co.uk

Perhaps, for a start, he could have checked what the current timetable is before wading in and grand-standing. As it stands, it is basically a 1tph timetable on Transpennine to/from Newcastle.

Labour see Chester-le-Street getting it's service frequency doubled as a "disaster scenario", and then they wonder why they're losing support left right and centre...

Bald Rick · 29 Jun 2021

aoin said:
I don't believe for one second that it is "demand driven" for Newcastle et. al. to lose 1tph to other northern cities, nor that it is "demand driven" for an additional London service to be added to the NE

What I believe is "London gets what London wants," and it's a shame that this consultation won't address the lack of northern connectivity as a result of slashing Newcastle to York, Airport to Victoria etc.

You can believe what you want, but the hard data suggests otherwise.

And it isn’t what London wants, it was proposed specifically because fo requests from businesses etc in
Newcastle and elsewhere along the line for connections to Newcastle and other regional centres.

But you can, of course, believe what you want to.

bramling · 29 Jun 2021

Bald Rick said:
You can believe what you want, but the hard data suggests otherwise.

And it isn’t what London wants, it was proposed specifically because fo requests from businesses etc in
Newcastle and elsewhere along the line for connections to Newcastle and other regional centres.

But you can, of course, believe what you want to.

With the current government, what "London wants" is probably the last thing which will happen!

Jonny · 29 Jun 2021

DanNCL said:
Labour see Chester-le-Street getting it's service frequency doubled as a "disaster scenario", and then they wonder why they're losing support left right and centre...

Exactly - this is about grandstanding of the type that Labour and their Trade Union ^sponsors^ are notorious for.

Also, anyone going west of the Pennines from Newcastle/Durham/Darlington, for whom it is time-critical and are using any-operator walk-up tickets, will still be able to hop on whichever train suits them and change at York/Leeds.

Nicholas Lewis · 30 Jun 2021

Bald Rick said:
You can believe what you want, but the hard data suggests otherwise.

And it isn’t what London wants, it was proposed specifically because fo requests from businesses etc in
Newcastle and elsewhere along the line for connections to Newcastle and other regional centres.

But you can, of course, believe what you want to.

Of course its equally possible business traffic won't return again to previous levels but more local leisure traffic does so service provision could get out of kilter all over the place. However, given the lead times to develop and plan timetables they have no choice but to plan against previous assessments until a clearer picture emerges of how travel demand is panning out which i see is now assessed above 50% for last few weeks according to todays statistic release.

https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/transport-use-during-the-coronavirus-covid-19-pandemic

Shame its not broken out by service groups as my observation coming back from London in peak hours shows plenty of spare capacity remains even with reduced timetables although its quite variable between inner suburban (fuller) and outer suburban (emptier).

Ianno87 · 30 Jun 2021

Nicholas Lewis said:
Of course its equally possible business traffic won't return again to previous levels but more local leisure traffic does so service provision could get out of kilter all over the place. However, given the lead times to develop and plan timetables they have no choice but to plan against previous assessments until a clearer picture emerges of how travel demand is panning out which i see is now assessed above 50% for last few weeks according to todays statistic release.

https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/transport-use-during-the-coronavirus-covid-19-pandemic

Shame its not broken out by service groups as my observation coming back from London in peak hours shows plenty of spare capacity remains even with reduced timetables although its quite variable between inner suburban (fuller) and outer suburban (emptier).

Wouldn't be at all surprised that even leisure traffic from Newcastle to London outstrips that to Manchester etc.

James90012 · 30 Jun 2021

Well I'd argue that rail to London is an established and strong market with steady growth but the whole push behind the TPE franchise was to create better quality and faster journeys across the North which underpinned their growth. It's a shame TPE made such a mess of implementing the changes in May 18 and the ongoing delayed fleet changes which meant the intercity service change never truly arrived in a stable enough way to grow the market for rail. Had it of been all delivered on time, I do wonder if the growth would of outstripped London services. We'll never know.

Clearly though the answer is 'both' not either / or so hopefully the industry can continue working on the timetable to work out how the 2nd TPE service can be reinstated. It's clear to me that faster Newcastle and Edinburgh to London services are such a prize that the trade off is worth it but this can't be the end state on ECML-North.

Bald Rick · 30 Jun 2021

Nicholas Lewis said:
Of course its equally possible business traffic won't return again to previous levels but more local leisure traffic does so service provision could get out of kilter all over the place. However, given the lead times to develop and plan timetables they have no choice but to plan against previous assessments until a clearer picture emerges of how travel demand is panning out which i see is now assessed above 50% for last few weeks according to todays statistic release.

Of course. Interestingly the Scotland / Newcastle - London market on the ECML is much more leisure oriented than the W Yorks - London market, so it’s likely that that will bounce back pretty strongly.

ItsGrimUpNorth · 4 Aug 2021

Northern have just released the timetable for Sunday’s on the Tyne Valley Line from May 2022 in connection with the ECML consultation.

A far later last train than present, and far better than the current Mon to Fri one, which doesn’t appear to be changing much next year. One day we’ll have a late midweek westbound service through to Carlisle, maybe!

https://d11vpqhghel6qd.cloudfront.net/images/may22draft/N4_Sun_Sunderland__Newcastle_to_Carlisle1.pdf

Watershed · 4 Aug 2021

ItsGrimUpNorth said:
Northern have just released the timetable for Sunday’s on the Tyne Valley Line from May 2022 in connection with the ECML consultation.

A far later last train than present, and far better than the current Mon to Fri one, which doesn’t appear to be changing much next year. One day we’ll have a late midweek westbound service through to Carlisle, maybe!

https://d11vpqhghel6qd.cloudfront.net/images/may22draft/N4_Sun_Sunderland__Newcastle_to_Carlisle1.pdf

I'd be very surprised if the recast happens in May, though I'd not rule out minor changes in the mean time. Perhaps @Bald Rick can tell us more

Bald Rick · 5 Aug 2021

Watershed said:
Perhaps @Bald Rick can tell us more

He can’t.

Nicholas Lewis · 19 Aug 2021

MR Sept 21 issue says the May 2022 timetable deferred

So they spent a billion disrupted passengers for months this year and now teh benefits kicked into the long grass. So presumably the current timetable just rolls over.

Class 170101 · 19 Aug 2021

Nicholas Lewis said:
MR Sept 21 issue says the May 2022 timetable deferred

View attachment 101338

So they spent a billion disrupted passengers for months this year and now teh benefits kicked into the long grass. So presumably the current timetable just rolls over.

I'm afraid I'm not surprised given the discussions here and the standard two hours posted by another member on previous pages (thanks to them). It was very messy and London Centric in my opinion and so I am not entirely surprised it hasn't gained support by some focus groups particularly those around TPE served areas.

Watershed · 20 Aug 2021

Nicholas Lewis said:
MR Sept 21 issue says the May 2022 timetable deferred

View attachment 101338

So they spent a billion disrupted passengers for months this year and now teh benefits kicked into the long grass. So presumably the current timetable just rolls over.

I wouldn't really say kicked into the long grass. It's just a question of it not being achievable next May, so it will be December, or May 23. It's still going to happen, for better or worse.

Starmill · 20 Aug 2021

Nicholas Lewis said:
MR Sept 21 issue says the May 2022 timetable deferred

View attachment 101338

So they spent a billion disrupted passengers for months this year and now teh benefits kicked into the long grass. So presumably the current timetable just rolls over.

And the "benefits" are overwhelmingly likely to include a lower overall quantum of trains and rather higher prices compared to December 2019.

Ianno87 · 20 Aug 2021

Watershed said:
I wouldn't really say kicked into the long grass. It's just a question of it not being achievable next May, so it will be December, or May 23. It's still going to happen, for better or worse.

In the meantime, the new layouts at King's Cross and (soon) Werrington will give some performance benefits, until such a time that a recast timetable is implemented.

If it is indeed not achievable for May 22 as the reason for this (I don't know the story), it is a good sign the industry has stepped up and said 'no' rather than sleepwalking into another May 2018.

43074 · 20 Aug 2021

Class 170101 said:
I'm afraid I'm not surprised given the discussions here and the standard two hours posted by another member on previous pages (thanks to them). It was very messy and London Centric in my opinion and so I am not entirely surprised it hasn't gained support by some focus groups particularly those around TPE served areas.

I would be willing to bet the reason for it being deferred has nothing to do with the lack of support expressed for it in the timetable consultation responses, however.

The Planner · 20 Aug 2021

Watershed said:
I wouldn't really say kicked into the long grass. It's just a question of it not being achievable next May, so it will be December, or May 23. It's still going to happen, for better or worse.

That is if any major changes are sanctioned for Dec22, the vine of grapes has suggested that a high bar will be placed for the May 22 - 23 year.

Ianno87 · 21 Aug 2021

Modern Railways popped through my door - ECML covered in a superb editorial and Informed Sources, but issues summarised as:

-Traction power supply capacity
-LNER fleet availability (I.e..cracking issues)
-Timetable reliability
-Status of the development of the timetable itself, and
-To some extent, the consultation responses.

As you might expect, lots of nuances in the detail to all of these, the can only be properly justified by reading the article.

I'd guess that, if only one or two of the above were issues, May 2022 may be pressed ahead with suitable mitigations in place, but all five together are sounding the alarm bells, and a deferral to at least May 2023 is recommended to de-risk the above.

Class360/1 · 21 Aug 2021

Nicholas Lewis said:
MR Sept 21 issue says the May 2022 timetable deferred

View attachment 101338

So they spent a billion disrupted passengers for months this year and now teh benefits kicked into the long grass. So presumably the current timetable just rolls over.

Glad they have deferred the timetable. Just when Morpeth gains a regular hourly train to Morpeth it is cut back.

When will the station get a regular timetable?

Various consultations on the May 2022 East Coast Mainline timetable

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