• Our booking engine at tickets.railforums.co.uk (powered by TrainSplit) helps support the running of the forum with every ticket purchase! Find out more and ask any questions/give us feedback in this thread!

Heading into autumn - what next?

Status
Not open for further replies.

nedchester

Established Member
Joined
28 May 2008
Messages
2,093
The question that these data analysts from SAGE need to answer, is that if the vaccine is continuing to prevent severe illness, where are all of these hospitalisations supposedly going to come from ?
There still a significant number of unvaccinated which is probably where any big wave of hospitalisations are likely to come from. Just look at the data from yesterday’s briefing.

My view of additional restrictions coming from these idiots (yes I said that again and stand by it) who refuse to be vaccinated is that I’m not being restricted because they believe some crap they’ve read on a dodgy YouTube channel.
 

Attachments

  • 1EFE161E-DBAB-41FA-BB19-ED65BD6404A0.jpeg
    1EFE161E-DBAB-41FA-BB19-ED65BD6404A0.jpeg
    535.7 KB · Views: 40
Sponsor Post - registered members do not see these adverts; click here to register, or click here to log in
R

RailUK Forums

yorksrob

Veteran Member
Joined
6 Aug 2009
Messages
38,955
Location
Yorks
There still a significant number of unvaccinated which is probably where any big wave of hospitalisations are likely to come from. Just look at the data from yesterday’s briefing.

My view of additional restrictions coming from these idiots (yes I said that again and stand by it) who refuse to be vaccinated is that I’m not being restricted because they believe some crap they’ve read on a dodgy YouTube channel.

If this is the case, the Government and SAGE and the like should be up front it and leave it to people to make up their own minds on whether they follow restrictions.
 

nedchester

Established Member
Joined
28 May 2008
Messages
2,093
If this is the case, the Government and SAGE and the like should be up front it and leave it to people to make up their own minds on whether they follow restrictions.
But of course because they are “the Government” they can’t be seen to be doing that as they are supposed to govern for all including the foolish.

I guess they have been upfront with the information they have out yesterday.
 

yorksrob

Veteran Member
Joined
6 Aug 2009
Messages
38,955
Location
Yorks
But of course because they are “the Government” they can’t be seen to be doing that as they are supposed to govern for all including the foolish.

I guess they have been upfront with the information they have out yesterday.

Indeed, and In will be governing my actions accordingly.

At least the Government seems keen to keep the economy open this time. Johnson needs to be quick to slap SAGE down publicly when they start talking about closing businesses.

I'd also like to see more research about where this anti-vaccine internet propaganda is coming from. I saw one article about a company based in Putin's Russia that was recruiting social media 'influencers' to post anti vaccine material.
 
Last edited:

Pete_uk

Established Member
Joined
28 Jan 2017
Messages
1,252
Location
Stroud, Glos
Any kind of commercial business shut down before Christmas ☃️ will be catastrophic.

I too would like to know what the plan is to increase the available ICU beds long term.
 

brad465

Established Member
Joined
11 Aug 2010
Messages
7,024
Location
Taunton or Kent
There still a significant number of unvaccinated which is probably where any big wave of hospitalisations are likely to come from. Just look at the data from yesterday’s briefing.

My view of additional restrictions coming from these idiots (yes I said that again and stand by it) who refuse to be vaccinated is that I’m not being restricted because they believe some crap they’ve read on a dodgy YouTube channel.
To be fair to Chris Whitty, he actually acknowledged the dangers of people like Nicki Minaj after that recent controversy, and would say that we shouldn't be blaming individuals who haven't taken the vaccine (which is divisive), as someone/something caused them to think that way. We should be looking for the sources of this to prevent misinformation getting out in the first place
 

DustyBin

Established Member
Joined
20 Sep 2020
Messages
3,624
Location
First Class
There still a significant number of unvaccinated which is probably where any big wave of hospitalisations are likely to come from. Just look at the data from yesterday’s briefing.

My view of additional restrictions coming from these idiots (yes I said that again and stand by it) who refuse to be vaccinated is that I’m not being restricted because they believe some crap they’ve read on a dodgy YouTube channel.

You do realise that people such as yourself are part of the problem don’t you? Why do you feel the need to use inflammatory language? There’s enough division in society without people like you insulting others simply because they don’t share your (facile) view on what is a complex matter.

As has always been the case, the overwhelming majority of hospitalisations and deaths come from the known vulnerable age groups:

33085B07-D859-4D62-A861-744609D92557.png


Whilst I question the wisdom of anybody in the top three or maybe four age groups who declines the vaccine (whilst respecting their choice of course), there are people in these age groups who simply can’t have it. These are the very same people for whom contracting covid is likely to have a serious outcome. Are these people idiots?

Moving to the younger age groups, and based on the data, can you really see a a big wave of hospitalisations coming from any of these groups, regardless of vaccination status? They continue to be very low risk.

Warnings of huge waves of hospitalisations and further restrictions are nothing more than a continuation of “divide and conquer” and a further attempt to coerce the unvaccinated. Please, try and see things for what they are.
 

nedchester

Established Member
Joined
28 May 2008
Messages
2,093
You do realise that people such as yourself are part of the problem don’t you? Why do you feel the need to use inflammatory language? There’s enough division in society without people like you insulting others simply because they don’t share your (facile) view on what is a complex matter.

As has always been the case, the overwhelming majority of hospitalisations and deaths come from the known vulnerable age groups:

View attachment 102632


Whilst I question the wisdom of anybody in the top three or maybe four age groups who declines the vaccine (whilst respecting their choice of course), there are people in these age groups who simply can’t have it. These are the very same people for whom contracting covid is likely to have a serious outcome. Are these people idiots?

Moving to the younger age groups, and based on the data, can you really see a a big wave of hospitalisations coming from any of these groups, regardless of vaccination status? They continue to be very low risk.

Warnings of huge waves of hospitalisations and further restrictions are nothing more than a continuation of “divide and conquer” and a further attempt to coerce the unvaccinated. Please, try and see things for what they are.
I don't care what you think to be honest. If you refuse to have the vaccine (not for medical reasons) then you are an idiot! The data regarding vaccinated/unvaccinated and hospitalisations/deaths is clear and you have to be a numb-nut not to see this.

If calling these people names upsets people then good. If you are one of these people who is refusing the vaccine also tough, take it on the chin it was your choice.
 

DustyBin

Established Member
Joined
20 Sep 2020
Messages
3,624
Location
First Class
I don't care what you think to be honest. If you refuse to have the vaccine (not for medical reasons) then you are an idiot! The data regarding vaccinated/unvaccinated and hospitalisations/deaths is clear and you have to be a numb-nut not to see this.

If calling these people names upsets people then good. If you are one of these people who is refusing the vaccine also tough, take it on the chin it was your choice.

The data is very clear, it’s a shame you lack the wherewithal to interpret it!
 

cuccir

Established Member
Joined
18 Nov 2009
Messages
3,659
Just seen the SAGE predictions of doom
Are they predictions of doom? My reading is that it tells us that a short period of relatively minor measures - mask-wearing, work from home advice - could be sufficient to stop any major wave of hospitalizations and deaths emerging. This seems pretty optimistic to me.
 

DustyBin

Established Member
Joined
20 Sep 2020
Messages
3,624
Location
First Class
Are they predictions of doom? My reading is that it tells us that a short period of relatively minor measures - mask-wearing, work from home advice - could be sufficient to stop any major wave of hospitalizations and deaths emerging. This seems pretty optimistic to me.

The problem is that these measures don’t have a great track record….
 

Dent

Member
Joined
4 Feb 2015
Messages
1,109
I don't care what you think to be honest. If you refuse to have the vaccine (not for medical reasons) then you are an idiot!

Please learn to be civil, labeling people as "idiots" is really not polite or constructive.
 

kristiang85

Established Member
Joined
23 Jan 2018
Messages
2,656
Are they predictions of doom? My reading is that it tells us that a short period of relatively minor measures - mask-wearing, work from home advice - could be sufficient to stop any major wave of hospitalizations and deaths emerging. This seems pretty optimistic to me.

The fact that SAGE keep saying the modelling shows masks make a difference is enough to discredit their work, given there is zero real world evidence that is the case.

Luckily from browsing the Internet, it seems their summer predictions of doom have made a lot of people see them for what they are, and many are dismissive of these winter predictions.

I think Johnson knows any kind of hard restrictions will probably signal the beginning of the end for him.
 

nedchester

Established Member
Joined
28 May 2008
Messages
2,093
You do a great impression of somebody who isn’t.

Dunning-Kruger effect perhaps?
Nope, fully qualified graduate scientist here able to interpret complex data and able to see the effect that vaccines are having on the progress of this disease and the consequences both in terms of hospitalisations and wider social effects of not being vaccinated.
 

DustyBin

Established Member
Joined
20 Sep 2020
Messages
3,624
Location
First Class
Nope, fully qualified graduate scientist here able to interpret complex data and able to see the effect that vaccines are having on the progress of this disease and the consequences both in terms of hospitalisations and wider social effects of not being vaccinated.

Ok, so if you are in fact capable of debating intelligently why not do so? Calling people idiots adds nothing and isn’t congruent with the general tone of this forum.
 

nedchester

Established Member
Joined
28 May 2008
Messages
2,093
Ok, so if you are in fact capable of debating intelligently why not do so? Calling people idiots adds nothing and isn’t congruent with the general tone of this forum.
No-one has the right not to be offended (anywhere) but when the evidence is stark, just look at the infection rate v hospitalisation/deaths then that simple statistic should point to the effectiveness of vaccines. Of course the vaccinated still get hospitalised / die of Covid but to a much lesser degree. Those that cannot see this are foolish.

My view at the moment is that the Vaccine is (and always has been) the way out of this thing. Those that don't get vaccinated will put the NHS at severe risk of being overwhelmed. That will potentially lead to further restrictions which I do not want (and I'd hope others don't). For the record I do not believe in compulsory vaccinations nor vaccine passports. I also do not use face coverings except in medical settings.

We need to move forward now not back and I don't see why I should potentially put my life on hold any longer because a few idiots can't see the main route out of this thing.

I have not called anyone on this forum an 'idiot' by the way but they wish to interpret it in that way then that is entirely up to them.
 

43066

Established Member
Joined
24 Nov 2019
Messages
9,366
Location
London
No-one has the right not to be offended (anywhere) but when the evidence is stark, just look at the infection rate v hospitalisation/deaths then that simple statistic should point to the effectiveness of vaccines. Of course the vaccinated still get hospitalised / die of Covid but to a much lesser degree. Those that cannot see this are foolish.

My view at the moment is that the Vaccine is (and always has been) the way out of this thing. Those that don't get vaccinated will put the NHS at severe risk of being overwhelmed. That will potentially lead to further restrictions which I do not want (and I'd hope others don't). For the record I do not believe in compulsory vaccinations nor vaccine passports. I also do not use face coverings except in medical settings.

We need to move forward now not back and I don't see why I should potentially put my life on hold any longer because a few idiots can't see the main route out of this thing.

I have not called anyone on this forum an 'idiot' by the way but they wish to interpret it in that way then that is entirely up to them.

But for the very young and healthy, who have a tiny chance of being seriously ill with Covid, surely you can you see why they might (quite reasonably) think: “why bother?”.

The “another brick in the wall” argument doesn’t work when it’s becoming increasingly clear that the vaccines don’t stop transmission, and the “this will get us back to normal” argument doesn’t wash either when, despite extremely high vaccine coverage, we are still being threatened with restrictions.
 

NorthOxonian

Established Member
Associate Staff
Buses & Coaches
Joined
5 Jul 2018
Messages
1,486
Location
Oxford/Newcastle
No-one has the right not to be offended (anywhere) but when the evidence is stark, just look at the infection rate v hospitalisation/deaths then that simple statistic should point to the effectiveness of vaccines. Of course the vaccinated still get hospitalised / die of Covid but to a much lesser degree. Those that cannot see this are foolish.

My view at the moment is that the Vaccine is (and always has been) the way out of this thing. Those that don't get vaccinated will put the NHS at severe risk of being overwhelmed. That will potentially lead to further restrictions which I do not want (and I'd hope others don't). For the record I do not believe in compulsory vaccinations nor vaccine passports. I also do not use face coverings except in medical settings.

We need to move forward now not back and I don't see why I should potentially put my life on hold any longer because a few idiots can't see the main route out of this thing.

I have not called anyone on this forum an 'idiot' by the way but they wish to interpret it in that way then that is entirely up to them.
I think idiot is a bit strong. While I agree that the evidence is pretty clear, we're both highly numerate and most people aren't.

Let's take the example of someone in their thirties. On average, the chance of them being hospitalised (every month) with the virus is 1 in 50,000 if they are vaccinated and 1 in 6,000 if they aren't. To someone with a statistical background, that's a huge difference and very clear. To most people, those are both incredibly unlikely events and those probabilities don't look very different.

As a species, we're not good at judging really unlikely risks. This is no different.
 
Last edited:

Dent

Member
Joined
4 Feb 2015
Messages
1,109
No-one has the right not to be offended (anywhere)

Who said anything about a "right not to be offended"? That looks like a silly strawman you have made up.

You claim you are a "fully qualified graduate scientist", so why don't you start acting like one and stop your infantile name-calling?
 

DustyBin

Established Member
Joined
20 Sep 2020
Messages
3,624
Location
First Class
No-one has the right not to be offended (anywhere) but when the evidence is stark, just look at the infection rate v hospitalisation/deaths then that simple statistic should point to the effectiveness of vaccines. Of course the vaccinated still get hospitalised / die of Covid but to a much lesser degree. Those that cannot see this are foolish.

My view at the moment is that the Vaccine is (and always has been) the way out of this thing. Those that don't get vaccinated will put the NHS at severe risk of being overwhelmed. That will potentially lead to further restrictions which I do not want (and I'd hope others don't). For the record I do not believe in compulsory vaccinations nor vaccine passports. I also do not use face coverings except in medical settings.

For the record I’m not offended personally.

It’s not as simple as you’re making out though as those being hospitalised are still overwhelmingly from the known vulnerable age groups, vaccinated or otherwise.

When people read articles such as this one (note that the BMJ isn’t a dodgy YouTube channel) they may quite reasonably decide to decline the vaccine for the time being at least:


We must stop ignoring natural immunity - it’s now long overdue!​


Dear Editor

There is now growing body of literature supporting the conclusion that natural immunity not only confers robust, durable, and high-level protection against COVID-19, but also better than vaccine induced immunity (1-5). Yet most scientific journals, media outlets, self-proclaimed health experts and public policy messaging continue to cast doubt. That doubt has real-world consequences, particularly for resource limited countries. We would like to review available data.
Infection generates immunity. The “SIREN” study in the Lancet addressed the relationships between seropositivity in people with previous COVID-19 infection and subsequent risk of severe acute respiratory syndrome due to SARS-CoV-2 infection over the subsequent 7-12 months (2). Prior infection decreased risk of symptomatic re-infection by 93%. A large cohort study published in JAMA Internal Medicine looked at 3.2 million US patients and showed that the risk of infection was significantly lower (0.3%) in seropositive patients v/s those who are seronegative (3%) (3).
Perhaps even more important to the question of duration of immunity is a recent study that has demonstrated the presence of long-lived memory immune cells in those who have recovered from COVID-19 (4). This implies a prolonged (perhaps years) capacity to respond to new infection with new antibodies.
In contrast to this collective data demonstrating both adequate and long-lasting protection in those who have recovered from COVID-19, the duration of vaccine-induced immunity is not fully known - but breakthrough infections in Israel, Iceland and in the US suggests a few months. Before CDC decided to stop collecting data on all breakthrough infections at the end of April, 2021, it reported >10,000 breakthrough infections (2 weeks after completion of vaccination) in the US, with a mortality of ~2% (6). Booster COVID vaccine recommendations have been already announced in Israel and in the US proving vaccine failure within 6 months.
How should we use the collective data to prioritize vaccination? These new data support simple and logical concepts. The goal of vaccination is to generate memory cells that can recognize SARS-CoV-2 and rapidly generate neutralizing antibodies that either prevent or mitigate both infection and transmission. Those who have survived COVID-19 must almost by definition have mounted an effective immune response; it is not surprising that the evolving literature shows that prior infection decreases vulnerability. In our view, the data suggest that people confirmed to have been infected with SARS-CoV-2 may not need vaccination. We should not be debating the implications of prior infection; we should be debating how to confirm prior infection.

You may not agree with their decision but that doesn’t make it wrong (or them an idiot).

We need to move forward now not back and I don't see why I should potentially put my life on hold any longer because a few idiots can't see the main route out of this thing.

You were doing so well until this point (my bold)….

I have not called anyone on this forum an 'idiot' by the way but they wish to interpret it in that way then that is entirely up to them.

Maybe not directly but you have as good as.
 

Bantamzen

Established Member
Joined
4 Dec 2013
Messages
9,726
Location
Baildon, West Yorkshire
There still a significant number of unvaccinated which is probably where any big wave of hospitalisations are likely to come from. Just look at the data from yesterday’s briefing.

My view of additional restrictions coming from these idiots (yes I said that again and stand by it) who refuse to be vaccinated is that I’m not being restricted because they believe some crap they’ve read on a dodgy YouTube channel.
And you know that they have only got their info from a "dodgy YT channel" how? Or did you just read that off some tabloid newspaper headline? Calling people who may have made an informed choice not to have, or yet have the vaccine is, well idiotic. You may have been banging down the doors of your local vaccination centre the moment you were invited to save yourself, but many younger people saw much debate amongst experts as to the risk vs reward of vaccines in their age groups, and have wanted to wait to see more data. This won't apply to the 10% of those left to take up the offer of course, but tarring people with the same brush using lazy rhetoric is, well lazy!
 

DelayRepay

Established Member
Joined
21 May 2011
Messages
2,929
My view at the moment is that the Vaccine is (and always has been) the way out of this thing.
I agree with you on this, and the vaccines are clearly doing their stuff. Without them we would be in a much worse situaton

Those that don't get vaccinated will put the NHS at severe risk of being overwhelmed. That will potentially lead to further restrictions which I do not want (and I'd hope others don't).
I don't agree with this. Most of the unvaccinated are younger age groups. Remember that even before the vaccines had been invented, this group was told Covid was likely to be no worse than a cold. There will be exceptions, but the statistics posted here and elsewhere are clear - hospitals are not full of unvaccinated young people who've caught Covid.

If the NHS is going to be overwhelmed, it will happen anyway. Vaccinating the remaining younger people will make a marginal difference at best. And, like it or not, if the NHS is overwhelmed, we will face restrictions. The restrictions will not be a result of unvaccinated healthy younger people.

We need to move forward now not back and I don't see why I should potentially put my life on hold any longer because a few idiots can't see the main route out of this thing.

I agree we need to move forward. It looks like that's the government's aim. I also think we need to respect other people's decisions (whether to be vaccinated or not, wear a mask or not, stay at home or not...). And we probably shouldn't refer to people who've made rational and informed decisions as 'idiots'.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.

Top