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Heading into autumn - what next?

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Bungle73

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By that logic he would have cancelled it years ago or make it a permanent cancellation.
Except that the NY fireworks generate tens of millions of pounds for London's economy. So they are an investment.
 
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Mainline421

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Right, despite all major restrictions being gone, including mass gatherings, Khan's decided there'll be no major fireworks display for New Year in London again:


If it went ahead, Khan would just instead get criticised for spending money that could be put to better uses etc etc, so he can't really win.

I never see the appeal of the fireworks anyway - standing around in the freezing cold for hours on end for a 10 minute show (that half the crowd watches through their phone screens anyway)
That's an Orwellian re-witing of history there. Guess I must have imagined the massive fireworks display for 2021

On a lighter note, in London that night was pleasantly surprised by the atmosphere and number of partygoers, even with most things were closed. Crowds of people arriving off the late night trains into London dressed for a night out with BTP being reasonable about "Tier 4." And at least Five Guys was open ;)
 

yorksrob

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Its a damned nuisence getting home though. Went for a couple of beers with family in London new year before lockdown (can't be arsed with fireworks) but the journey back with all the tube stops closed (so the gawpers could get priority) means that it's not something I'll be bothering with again.
 

brad465

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Javid ahs come out criticising Khan's decision, suggesting he remains reluctant to impose restrictions for now:


A decision made by the mayor of London to cancel the city's New Year fireworks display for a second year has been criticised by the health secretary.

Sadiq Khan announced the event was off again because of "concerns about Covid", but Sajid Javid said he "can't understand" the rationale.

Speaking on LBC's Nick Ferrari at Breakfast, Mr Javid said it would be "perfectly safe" to stage the event.

"Obviously that's a decision from the mayor... I hope he can reconsider it."
 

Domh245

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Javid ahs come out criticising Khan's decision, suggesting he remains reluctant to impose restrictions for now:


With the government's recent track record I'm taking "perfectly safe to stage the event" as an admission that we'll be welded into our houses over the festive period!

Joking aside, was there not a thread recently about local councils scrapping bonfire night fireworks displays "due to covid" which turned out to be a cover for "we can't get fireworks for love nor money at the moment" - I dare say there are parallels to be drawn
 

island

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Darandio

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With the government's recent track record I'm taking "perfectly safe to stage the event" as an admission that we'll be welded into our houses over the festive period!

They've also said there is absolutely no risk of the gas supply running out this winter and then today stated that the winter is going to be mild. Tomorrow i'm going to buy a very thick jumper and a shovel.
 

nw1

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They've also said there is absolutely no risk of the gas supply running out this winter and then today stated that the winter is going to be mild.

How can they know that? Weather forecasts that far out (December is the first month of winter, so basically two months) are rarely that accurate. If the next season could be forecast so accurately, we'd all be able to make our summer holiday plans depending on whether the UK summer is likely to be good or not.

Regardless of what should be done about the new year firework display (cancellation seems silly given mass events are happening right now) I don't believe a word any member of this government says, and I certainly don't trust an alleged admirer of the work of Ayn Rand.

I generally try not to be pessimistic but I’m inclined to agree with you. For me personally 2021 hasn’t been too bad, but as a country I don’t think we’re in a good place. The government (like many others) seem to love their “Build Back Better” slogan, I get the feeling though we’re still at the demolition stage… 2022 could be interesting to say the least.

"Build Back Better" and its variation "Bus Back Better". Hmmm... better for whom? Wealthy Conservative supporters?

All I see is cuts, cuts, cuts - and of course the government is a party which is not known for having any moral qualms about swingeing cuts.

Sooner or later, people will see Bumbling Boris and the Conservatives for what they really are, and I think, for the reasons discussed in this thread, next year will be the year. Of course there's the risk 'Boris' will throw a snap election for next spring - early enough for the cuts to have not been felt fully yet.
 
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Eyersey468

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I don't believe a word any member of this government says either, especially given their track record.
 

greyman42

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Javid ahs come out criticising Khan's decision, suggesting he remains reluctant to impose restrictions for now:
When did he mention "for now"?

They've also said there is absolutely no risk of the gas supply running out this winter and then today stated that the winter is going to be mild.
Where is the mention that the winter is going to be mild?
 

nw1

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When did he mention "for now"?


Where is the mention that the winter is going to be mild?

Maybe some very speculative forecast, which comes with probabilities attached. See: the "barbecue summer" of 2009, which produced a decent June, a washout July and a very average August.

Plus a bit of nowcasting, always a mistake people make. "It's mild now, so winter will be mild". Reminiscent of how some people thought summer 2012 would be a scorcher because March was unusually warm. In the event it was one of the wettest since the 1960s.
 

greyman42

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They've also said there is absolutely no risk of the gas supply running out this winter and then today stated that the winter is going to be mild.
Where is the mention that the winter is going to be mild?
Regardless of what should be done about the new year firework display (cancellation seems silly given mass events are happening right now) I don't believe a word any member of this government says, and I certainly don't trust an alleged admirer of the work of Ayn Rand.
What has Ayn Rand got to do with anything, one way or the other?
 

Darandio

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Where is the mention that the winter is going to be mild?

Kwarteng mentioned it yesterday. A shared meeting with energy bosses and the Met Office where the most likely scenario would be mild and wet conditions through the winter.

Considering the Met Office cannot reliably tell me what's happening outside my door most hours of the day i'm not convinced.
 

nw1

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What has Ayn Rand got to do with anything, one way or the other?

I believe that a certain cabinet minister is something of a fan of some of her work - and as she was known as someone who appeared to espouse a philosophy of unlimited corporate power with no government control on corporations to do as they please, it makes me rather suspicious of anyone who has expressed admiration for her work.

Kwarteng mentioned it yesterday. A shared meeting with energy bosses and the Met Office where the most likely scenario would be mild and wet conditions through the winter.

Considering the Met Office cannot reliably tell me what's happening outside my door most hours of the day i'm not convinced.

While excessive cold would not be welcome I suspect few would want mild and wet. This year has been dull enough already; a winter like that (rather than the frosty, sunny variety) would send many people absolutely crazy I suspect from SAD and lack of the dry weather we need to get outside. Psycholoigically, I suspect many crave a bright, dry, calm winter with very average temperatures. Just as well forecasts that far out are inaccurate...
 
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yorksrob

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I suspect many crave a bright, dry, calm winter with very average temperatures. Just as well forecasts that far out are inaccurate...

That would indeed be the ideal winter. Rather unlikely I think, sadly.
 

35B

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I believe that a certain cabinet minister is something of a fan of some of her work - and as she was known as someone who appeared to espouse a philosophy of unlimited corporate power with no government control on corporations to do as they please, it makes me rather suspicious of anyone who has expressed admiration for her work.
My understanding of her ideas (I've not read her novels and they aren't on my to read list) is that it's not about corporate power, but personal power allied with complete individualism. Your concern about a subscriber to that philosophy having ministerial responsibility for a service whose benefits are not just personal is well justified.
 

Smidster

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Looking at the numbers it seems inevitable that we will soon invoke "Plan B" as the snails pace of the booster / kids roll out means things are going sideways in a hurry.

Will be really interesting to see how people react to restrictions being brought back - whether those who have "checked out" get on board again and if it finally leads to some dissatisfaction with Government.

I am just pleased I have been to a few events recently!
 

bramling

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Looking at the numbers it seems inevitable that we will soon invoke "Plan B" as the snails pace of the booster / kids roll out means things are going sideways in a hurry.

Will be really interesting to see how people react to restrictions being brought back - whether those who have "checked out" get on board again and if it finally leads to some dissatisfaction with Government.

I am just pleased I have been to a few events recently!

I get the feeling re-imposition of restrictions won't go down well. I think a critical mass of people have "moved on" now, and aren't ready to retrace their steps. Witness how many people are, for example, openly defying Khan's attempt to mandate mask use on TfL.

There will, of course, be a core of people hoping for a return.

It is quite possible to accommodate both - those who want to wall themselves away should be made to feel very welcome to do so, but at their own expense. See how quickly their attitude changes then!
 

Darandio

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What is the problem with the numbers? I see cases rising but still not translating into a huge uptick in hospital admissions and death, just like the last 3 months. What am I missing?
 

bramling

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What is the problem with the numbers? I see cases rising but still not translating into a huge uptick in hospital admissions and death, just like the last 3 months. What am I missing?

Today's news has been (sadly) dominated by another story, but it's probably not going to be long before case numbers receive substantial media attention. This shouldn't in itself be a problem, if we had a prime minister able to robustly articulate that rising cases no longer equals unacceptable death rates.

Unfortunately there is a problem, namely that the government has allowed a narrative over the last 18 months that the measures are "to protect you from getting Covid". This was never the case, yet many people continue to have this belief, and the PM is too weak and frit to manage expectations.

"We're going to beat this" is about as sophisticated as it gets. Wasn't it supposed to have been "sent packing" 15 months ago?!
 

brad465

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Presenting, the next variant, being labelled as a Delta descendant and believed to be around 10% more transmissible than Delta (which is already highly infectious):


Scientists are anxiously tracking a descendant of the Delta coronavirus, which is responsible for a growing proportion of Covid-19 cases in the UK...

Given how infectious delta is and how its ability to spread in the lockdowns in Australia and New Zealand forced them to accept zero-covid can't be achieved anymore, I doubt any restrictions being re-imposed will have any effect.
 

yorksrob

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Looking at the numbers it seems inevitable that we will soon invoke "Plan B" as the snails pace of the booster / kids roll out means things are going sideways in a hurry.

Will be really interesting to see how people react to restrictions being brought back - whether those who have "checked out" get on board again and if it finally leads to some dissatisfaction with Government.

I am just pleased I have been to a few events recently!
Presenting, the next variant, being labelled as a Delta descendant and believed to be around 10% more transmissible than Delta (which is already highly infectious):




Given how infectious delta is and how its ability to spread in the lockdowns in Australia and New Zealand forced them to accept zero-covid can't be achieved anymore, I doubt any restrictions being re-imposed will have any effect.

10% more transmissable doesn't seem a great deal in the scheme of things.

Clearly any sort of restrictions will be pointless.
 

bramling

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10% more transmissable doesn't seem a great deal in the scheme of things.

Clearly any sort of restrictions will be pointless.

Can't help but be slightly suspicious, this coming just before the October half-term week, which if we remember was at one point rumoured to be when a "circuit breaker" was being advised.

What's the betting that version 4.0 appears some time around 23rd December?...
 

Silver Cobra

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With the recent rise in cases, the organisers of the event I'm attending at the ExCeL this Saturday have changed their entry requirements regarding proof of vaccination, a negative test or prior immunity to now extend to anyone aged 3 and up requiring this (it was originally only for those aged 18 and up). Since vaccines are only available for children aged 12 and up, this means any children aged between 3 and 11 must take a lateral flow test 48 hours before attending, unless they have proof of prior immunity. I can just imagine the difficulties that will be involved with trying to do a lateral flow test on such young children, given how unpleasant an experience it is for us adults.
 

43066

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Unfortunately there is a problem, namely that the government has allowed a narrative over the last 18 months that the measures are "to protect you from getting Covid". This was never the case, yet many people continue to have this belief, and the PM is too weak and frit to manage expectations.

I note Kit Yates of SAGE has been quoted in the Guardian as saying the current level of cases and deaths is “unacceptable” and that “it didn’t have to be this way”. It’s totally inappropriate that a scientist should yet again be making value judgments and political proclamations which should be left to politicians. I have no doubt this is motivated by the fact that many of these scientists are frustrated that the country seems to be moving on from Covid, and are keen to keep themselves in the limelight for as long as possible.
 

abn444

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Maybe I've not been looking hard enough but I can't seem to find any figures for yesterday (Sunday) so is it the case (pardon the pun) that todays are higher because of that? Or did the figures for yesterday go somewhere else
 

seagull

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How surprising that "case numbers" are so high when we have an obsession with giving everyone pesky tests every 5 minutes, many of which are of course going to be false positives.
 

Busaholic

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How surprising that "case numbers" are so high when we have an obsession with giving everyone pesky tests every 5 minutes, many of which are of course going to be false positives.
A lab in the West Midlands has been closed for producing five weeks' worth of false negatives, meaning infected people just carried on with their normal lives, so many others could have been infected. It was only that so many reported feeling unwell even after the all-clear that the 'rogue' lab was brought to account.
 

Ediswan

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A lab in the West Midlands has been closed for producing five weeks' worth of false negatives, meaning infected people just carried on with their normal lives, so many others could have been infected. It was only that so many reported feeling unwell even after the all-clear that the 'rogue' lab was brought to account.
The way I read that, it was regulatory oversight which spotted the statistical outlier of low PCR:negative compared to LFT:positive which raised doubts. I only see one family reporting feeling unwell after PCR:postive results.

Either way, it does appear that a larger proportion of people than usual who were likely positive were sent on their merry way.

Edit: Those emojis were entered as <colon><p>, like PCR:negative. If anybody knows how to prevent that, please advise.
 
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