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Heading into autumn - what next?

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102 fan

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Exactly, and I did point this out to them. Unfortunately the propaganda (and that's what it is) has led to the perceived risk being completely detached from the reality.


I've pointed out the risks of driving to those types, and they get very dismissive when the percentage risk is presented. It's very much 'Covid! Panic, panic, cover face. Driving - I'll never have an accident I'm careful.'
 
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bramling

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I've pointed out the risks of driving to those types, and they get very dismissive when the percentage risk is presented. It's very much 'Covid! Panic, panic, cover face. Driving - I'll never have an accident I'm careful.'

That may well be part of the function of Covid being viewed by some as something forced unto them by “dirty” other people. Whereas driving can feel safe cocooned into one’s own little bubble.

Doesn’t really stand up to scrutiny of course.
 

DustyBin

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I've pointed out the risks of driving to those types, and they get very dismissive when the percentage risk is presented. It's very much 'Covid! Panic, panic, cover face. Driving - I'll never have an accident I'm careful.'

Yes absolutely. The government and media have misled people and in some cases left them genuinely terrified. It's appalling really as it's having real-world consequences for people in terms of their enjoyment and quality of life.
 

102 fan

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Yes absolutely. The government and media have misled people and in some cases left them genuinely terrified. It's appalling really as it's having real-world consequences for people in terms of their enjoyment and quality of life.


It's all very sad. I've seen relatives acting like they've lost thousands of pounds because they didn't have a mask to go into a restaurant. Because they had to walk 10 feet amongst others.

Sad and depressing.
 

Bikeman78

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I've pointed out the risks of driving to those types, and they get very dismissive when the percentage risk is presented. It's very much 'Covid! Panic, panic, cover face. Driving - I'll never have an accident I'm careful.'
Of course the Covid mania actually made things worse in some cases. When they closed one entrance at the school, the other entrance became a bunfight. Narrow pavement barely wide enough for parent and child to walk side by side. Nowhere to park and people literally driving over the pavement to get around oncoming traffic. I'm very relieved that the entrance on my side is open again because I can avoid all that nonsense now.
 

Drogba11CFC

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One piece of good news is that zerocovidzoe (who hasn't left her home since lockdown started yet somehow managed to catch covid four times) has been booted off twitter.
 

DustyBin

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One piece of good news is that zerocovidzoe (who hasn't left her home since lockdown started yet somehow managed to catch covid four times) has been booted off twitter.

It was difficult to tell if she was serious or not. A few of us on here had speculated as to whether it was a parody or the work of an absolute nutter!
 

adc82140

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I still maintain it was a parody. The author will go on and take the mick out of something else now.
 

The Ham

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Exactly, and I did point this out to them. Unfortunately the propaganda (and that's what it is) has led to the perceived risk being completely detached from the reality.

Indeed, a 10,000 chance of seeing in a road accident in any 12 month period.

I've pointed out the risks of driving to those types, and they get very dismissive when the percentage risk is presented. It's very much 'Covid! Panic, panic, cover face. Driving - I'll never have an accident I'm careful.'

I'd argue that those who say they never have an accident as their careful are those who are most likely to have one.

I have been very lucky that I've not had a significant accident (I've had some low speed manoeuvring collisions, including one where someone reversed into the side of my car). Whilst I've been careful, my driving still is only ever part of the reason for this outcome (as it is for anyone else).

However as soon as someone says "I'm a good driver" chances are they aren't (obvious exceptions apply, like those trained to be traffic cops).
 

35B

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So in other words businesses pay, yet I could say in terms of myself at school I didn’t see anyone complaining about ventilation but suddenly we care? (how strange)
Sick building syndrome has been around ages; this is another manifestation of it. Covid is a trigger for the assessment of something that should have been obvious. If CO2 levels are far above the recommended level, that will have an effect on the pupils, regardless of Covid.

An aside. At school, we had 2nd floor classrooms facing SW, completely unshaded, and with 5’ high, 6’ long windows which were top hinged and opened about an inch. They were appalling to work in at the best of times, and in summer were pure heat traps. Bad architecture persists, but knowing what makes it bad can help avoid repetition.
 

jumble

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One of the local GPs got caught out marking people down as "no answer" when they tried phoning. Only because they let the phone ring for less than 5 seconds before hanging up and moving onto the next caller.

And then they wonder why the local A&E is busy
A small Data Point to confirm your view
A friends partner retired as a practice nurse recently having spent their working life with enough time to attend to peoples medical issues correctly
They then went to work for a receptionist in a busy GP practice and was put effectively as a call center operator
In short they had to deal with around 200 calls a day with around 30 waiting at any one time and their KPI appeared to be measured on how quickly they could fob off the caller.
They were monitored by a head receptionist who scolded them for taking too much time.
( However I would guess that half those callers had no proper reason to be calling )
 

brad465

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BBC's Nick Triggle has now done an analysis on whether cases are about to plummet, and talks about modelling done for the Government predicting a dramatic fall soon:


Rising Covid cases have been putting both the NHS and ministers under huge pressure.
But could this be about to change - and change quite dramatically?
It is dangerous to read too much into a few days of data - especially given the way infection levels in the south-west of England have been skewed by the lab test failings. But the recent rise that has caused so much concern does appear to have slowed and maybe is starting to drop in England.
Chart showing infection levels

1px transparent line

And despite all the talk about the need for the government to introduce Plan B - working from home, mandatory mask wearing and vaccine passports - there is actually a school of thought that we may be on the brink of seeing infection levels plummet.
Modelling done for the government suggests cases and deaths could soon start to fall dramatically.
That though is dependent on a number of factors, including the vast majority of over-50s coming forward for their boosters, and a degree of cautious behaviour throughout winter when it comes to mixing and socialising.
Covid modelling

Presentational white space

This model, based on estimated total infections rather than those that come forward for testing and get reported in daily data, comes from the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine (LSHTM), which is just one of the groups that feeds into the government.
It is certainly the most optimistic at the moment, although what is noticeable is that the others produced by Imperial College London and University of Warwick also point to some degree of decrease being the most realistic scenario.
 

102 fan

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BBC's Nick Triggle has now done an analysis on whether cases are about to plummet, and talks about modelling done for the Government predicting a dramatic fall soon:



I had to double check there. The BBC saying cases may fall???? Has the news editor been replaced?
 

yorkie

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Yes it is unusual for the BBC to say something positive.

From the link above; this part is typical BBC:
But the recent rise that has caused so much concern does appear to have slowed and maybe is starting to drop in England.
The rest is talking about modelling; I hope it's right but it really is impossible to say. It doesn't matter if rates don't plummet and I am not convinced they will plummet until more children have been vaccinated or caught the virus. But it's certainly encouraging

The link above also includes a graph which demonstrates how effective the vaccines are at reducing transmission, with detected rates among 0-19 year olds (the least vaccinated) being 6 times higher than over 60s. Early in the pandemic it was pretty much the opposite of this. Children and young people must be being exposed to Sars-CoV-2 at a phenomenal rate and I suspect many exposures result in infections that are asymptomatic or so mild they go undetected.
 

Eyersey468

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Apparently I am immature for asking a pro lockdowns person on twitter how we will pay for things like the NHS in future if we keep shutting everything down. I have asked her why this am immature question. I look forward to seeing her response.
 

quantinghome

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It would be expected that cases will drop over half term anyway, but the decline appears to have started prior to this week, which is encouraging.

The distribution of cases is also interesting - it isn't hitting the big cities nearly as much, which is suggestive of the virus running out of people to infect in those areas. Hopefully we'll see this trend spread out over the coming weeks.
 

The Ham

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I had to double check there. The BBC saying cases may fall???? Has the news editor been replaced?

Newscast (BBC Sounds) from Friday was also reporting that WFH would have a bigger impact than mask wearing, with a comment questioning as to is this why cases in London were lower than the average for England (implying more WFH than the average in London).
 

MikeWM

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The distribution of cases is also interesting - it isn't hitting the big cities nearly as much, which is suggestive of the virus running out of people to infect in those areas. Hopefully we'll see this trend spread out over the coming weeks.

Indeed, and in particular note that the many of the places currently with lower rates closely correlate with those that we've had panics/local lockdowns in the past due to their high rates - Liverpool, Manchester, Bolton, Bury, Blackburn, Newcastle, Nottingham, Leicester - all lower than the national average. I find it hard to believe that this is a coincidence.

Conversely somewhere like East Cambridgeshire, which has never been particularly badly hit, currently has the highest rate it has ever had - though it appears to be about to start falling again.
 

NorthKent1989

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Apparently I am immature for asking a pro lockdowns person on twitter how we will pay for things like the NHS in future if we keep shutting everything down. I have asked her why this am immature question. I look forward to seeing her response.

These zero-Covid fanatics are the ones who need to grow up quite frankly, they need to realise that they have more chance of being hit by a car than catching Covid much less die from it.

They sadly have allowed themselves to descend into a never ending form of hysteria.
 

Eyersey468

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These zero-Covid fanatics are the ones who need to grow up quite frankly, they need to realise that they have more chance of being hit by a car than catching Covid much less die from it.

They sadly have allowed themselves to descend into a never ending form of hysteria.
I agree, I don't suppose I will get a sensible response from her. Apparently countries which have put the economy above people end up with it worse for businesses. Funnily enough she has so far been unable to give me an example of this.
 

bramling

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These zero-Covid fanatics are the ones who need to grow up quite frankly, they need to realise that they have more chance of being hit by a car than catching Covid much less die from it.

They sadly have allowed themselves to descend into a never ending form of hysteria.

I have to say my patience is seriously running out with such people now. So it’s “immature” to ask a legitimate question. Would the individual in question drink bleach if someone told her to, without question?

Quite simply if people want lockdown then they should lock themselves up inside their own homes, plant a vegetable patch in the garden, and live off savings. Otherwise stop wasting everyone else’s time.

This is getting beyond a joke now, and it’s doing real harm in many different ways. Sick of it.
 
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quantinghome

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Indeed, and in particular note that the many of the places currently with lower rates closely correlate with those that we've had panics/local lockdowns in the past due to their high rates - Liverpool, Manchester, Bolton, Bury, Blackburn, Newcastle, Nottingham, Leicester - all lower than the national average. I find it hard to believe that this is a coincidence.

Conversely somewhere like East Cambridgeshire, which has never been particularly badly hit, currently has the highest rate it has ever had - though it appears to be about to start falling again.
It was hardly 'panic' to have local lockdowns in response to high rates of covid, prior to mass vaccination. Vaccinations have vastly improved the situation and allow us to live normally (more or less) despite experiencing high levels of covid cases.

These zero-Covid fanatics are the ones who need to grow up quite frankly, they need to realise that they have more chance of being hit by a car than catching Covid much less die from it.

They sadly have allowed themselves to descend into a never ending form of hysteria.
As with any controversial subject, both sides tend to feed off each other. Where would this sub-forum be if there were no "zero-covid fanatics" to complain about?
 

Drogba11CFC

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These zero-Covid fanatics are the ones who need to grow up quite frankly, they need to realise that they have more chance of being hit by a car than catching Covid much less die from it.

They sadly have allowed themselves to descend into a never ending form of hysteria.
The problem is that they are backed up by Independent/Irrelevant/Imitation/Fake/BTEC/Poundshop/Carabao Cup/Europa Conference League SAGE. (Choose whichever one you like the most)
 

NorthKent1989

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I agree, I don't suppose I will get a sensible response from her. Apparently countries which have put the economy above people end up with it worse for businesses. Funnily enough she has so far been unable to give me an example of this.

You won’t do, I’ve asked the same question myself to the same people and have yet to receive an answer beyond the standard “Covidiot” or a hysterical “but think of the numbers and rising cases!” retort, and they think that they’re the mature ones?
I have to say my patience is seriously running out with such people now. So it’s “immature” to ask a legitimate question. Would the individual in question drink bleach if someone told her to, without question?

Quite simply if people want lockdown then they should lock themselves up inside their own homes, plant a vegetable patch in the garden, and live off savings. Otherwise stop wasting everyone else’s time.

My patience ran out months ago, I have no time for those who call for restrictions because they cannot back it up beyond “cases are rising” and indeed, if people want lockdown then they should be the ones to stay indoors and let the rest of us get on with our lives, at this point they’re the selfish ones.


The problem is that they are backed up by Independent/Irrelevant/Imitation/Fake/BTEC/Poundshop/Carabao Cup/Europa Conference League SAGE. (Choose whichever one you like the most)

Sadly this is true, minor bullies are backed up by bigger bullies sadly.


As with any controversial subject, both sides tend to feed off each other. Where would this sub-forum be if there were no "zero-covid fanatics" to complain about?

Living our normal lives, working, socialising, enjoying our freedoms that no government or person has the right to infringe upon that’s where we’d be, I guess the zero Covid crew are the perpetually miserable ones who want others to bask in the misery with them, I for one won’t entertain that world view any longer, life is for the living.
 

duncanp

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The problem is that they are backed up by Independent/Irrelevant/Imitation/Fake/BTEC/Poundshop/Carabao Cup/Europa Conference League SAGE. (Choose whichever one you like the most)

Your forgot to mention CBeebies SAGE, Play School SAGE (showing my age here) and Blue Peter SAGE (where the "modelling" is done with sticky back plastic and old toilet rolls) <D
 

Eyersey468

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I have to say my patience is seriously running out with such people now. So it’s “immature” to ask a legitimate question. Would the individual in question drink bleach if someone told her to, without question?

Quite simply if people want lockdown then they should lock themselves up inside their own homes, plant a vegetable patch in the garden, and live off savings. Otherwise stop wasting everyone else’s time.
I have no patience left for people like that either
 

Jimini

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interesting op-ed on the Tele app, tonight:


I’m assuming it’s behind the paywall so here’s the text:

What the hell is the NHS doing with all those extra billions?​

However much more money Rishi Sunak throws at our terminally sick health service, you can guarantee that it will never be enough
ALLISON PEARSON26 October 2021 • 7:00pm
Allison Pearson

The UK spending per person on healthcare is above the OECD average, yet we manage to have fewer doctors and nurses than most well-off countries

In a paediatric ICU, six infants are on ventilation. Aged from zero to four, they are terribly ill, the poor mites. Their immune systems, locked away for more than a year, recently got exposed to germs for the first time. “I’ve never seen anything like it,” says a senior nurse on the unit, “not this early in the winter.”
Her pager beeps constantly. Other departments in the hospital want her to send them some of her nurses. They say they are understaffed, they need urgent reinforcements. The nurse refuses. Again and again, she says no. Paediatric ICU is supposed to have a higher ratio of staff to patients. Her unit already has too few nurses to give each child the attention they deserve. Today, the nurse will have a day off. She is exhausted but she is afraid to take her day off. What if a manager steals some of her staff while she’s away? What if a baby goes unmonitored for too long? What if a toddler has been lost when she walks in tomorrow morning? Such thoughts torment her, this lioness led by donkeys.
Far away from the rhythmic bleeping and the machine sighs of the paediatric intensive care unit, important men, on the the radio and in Parliament, demand that more restrictions be brought back to stop the spread of Covid. They clamour for Plan B. “Minor inconveniences”, that’s what they call the masks, the social distancing and the stay-home instructions that kept those desperately ill babies away from the human contact they needed to be healthy. So the men argue and play politics while the children gasp for breath.
“It’s not Covid we’re worried about,” the nurse says wearily.
She’s right. It’s not Covid any more – but Covid is far too useful a stick to beat the Government with to give it up that easily.
Covid, the capacious cloak of unaccountability that magically covers up all the NHS’s manifold deficiencies. Covid, which allows the British Medical Association, a far-Left militant trade union, to claim GPs are being “bullied” into seeing the same number of patients they somehow managed to see in person before the pandemic. That’s the morally inert BMA which thinks it’s legitimate to ballot GPs on industrial action after Health Secretary Sajid Javid had the cheek to ask them to do their jobs, pretty please. And here’s another £250 million to bribe you to do the work for which you are already so handsomely rewarded!
I ask you, what kind of doctor would consider going on strike during a devastating pandemic when thousands of people are still walking around with undiagnosed cancers?
They know they can get away with such behaviour because our chronically understaffed, criminally over-managed, unfit-for-purpose NHS is the “envy of the world”. God forbid any health minister should begin a speech without a heartfelt encomium to its quasi-divine status. Was it Nigel Lawson who said the NHS was the closest thing Britain had to a national religion? Electoral suicide to try and reform it, or so they say. For the people love “our NHS”, even though, during the pandemic, it was our NHS that shut non-Covid services other countries managed to keep open, almost certainly leading to thousands of premature deaths. Even though it was our NHS which block-purchased private hospital capacity at an estimated cost of £400 million a month – and failed to use two-thirds of it even when surgeons I knew were pleading to be allowed to operate.
And that’s not the worst aspect of this revered institution. Like some Soviet-era ministry, the NHS pumps out misinformation which obscures its woeful productivity and its featherbedded executive class, safe in the knowledge that no politician will dare call them out.
In the Budget, Rishi Sunak will throw yet more money at a terminally sick health service in urgent need of reform. In an effort to turn the tide on a partially self-inflicted NHS backlog (5.7million people on the waiting list, an extra 100,000 being added every month), the Chancellor will announce a £5.9 billion spending package to help solve the crisis. As my Planet Normal co-pilot, the economist Liam Halligan, has pointed out, that’s more than five thousand million pounds. A stupefying amount – but who’s counting?

Certainly not the Government, which gave an extra £63.4 billion to the NHS in 2020 to deal with Covid. This year, before today’s expected bumper bung, the health service has already been granted £12 billion “maintenance” – and let’s not forget the £36 billion additional funding in the form of a Health and Social Care Levy, soon to be deducted from a pay packet near you.
And the one thing you can absolutely guarantee is it still won’t be enough. Even before Rishi stands up to speak, Dr Layla McCay, director of policy at the NHS Confederation, has conceded that health leaders “would welcome the funding” but “it still falls short of what is needed to get services completely back on track”.
Hang on, we’re giving the health service over 40 per cent of Gross Domestic Product, and she says it “falls short”? How much do you reckon it would take for the NHS to provide health outcomes that match those of other wealthy countries? Shall we sell off St Paul’s Cathedral to the Saudis and see if that’s enough for your local Trust to provide you with a new hip in less than five years?
Here’s a sobering thought for you. The UK spending per person on healthcare is above the OECD average. And yet we manage to have fewer doctors and nurses than most well-off countries, one of the lowest hospital beds-per-capita and a standard of in-patient care that leaves most of us just grateful to get out alive. What the hell are they doing with all those billions?
The other day, a consultant told me he is paying for his pregnant daughter to have the baby privately. When I asked why, he said: “The state of our maternity care shames a developed nation.” (Trust me, the treatment of mothers and babies is the next big scandal.) That doctor would concur with a report on the NHS by the Institute for Fiscal Studies which concluded that “for the most important illnesses in directly causing death, it is a consistently below-average performer”. As a group of disillusioned doctors once joked: “Our NHS – the envy of the Third World.”
As for all this lobbying for Plan B, it’s outrageous. The NHS seems to think it can have its cake and eat the people who provided the cake. As the exasperated Tory MP Mark Harper put it in the Commons: “The NHS is given billions more, and then sends out representatives who want to shut down our economy to manage their pressures.” Quite.
Over the next three years, I predict that the public mood will darken as thousands of men, women and children die prematurely because they were told to protect the NHS. It’s going to be a bloodbath that a hundred new diagnostic hubs will do nothing to avert. Yet more billions will be needed to settle the tsunami of negligence claims. People need to stop being grateful and be encouraged to ask: “What is the NHS doing with all our money?”
I don’t know about you, but I would start with a cull of useless managers, then restore the category of State Enrolled Nurse and the full bursaries that enabled so many capable and compassionate, if not particularly academic, young people to give the loving, decent care that our society sorely needs right now.
Recruit an army of them. I know a paediatric nurse who could really do with their help.
 

brad465

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Presenting the latest bogus YouGov poll on support for various covid measures, including 81% support for masks on transport and 76% support in shops:


% of English people who would support bringing back... Masks on transport: 81% Masks in shops: 76% Social distancing in pubs/restaurants: 67% 2m rule: 59% Rule of 6 indoors: 42% No large events: 42% No household mixing indoors: 30% Full lockdown: 20%

I'm sure I'm not the only one who doesn't see anywhere near those levels of mask wearing right now, so really cannot see how this was conjured up. On the plus side at least some measures are now being logged with less than 50% support, including full lockdown.
 
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