2017 Predictions

[kevconnor]

So what are people's predictions for 2017?

Do we think there can be any more bad news about delivery of electrification or may there finally be a light at the end of this particular tunnel.

What about rolling stock, with the problem!s currently being encountered by VivaRail and the DMU shortage in Wales are there any other events to happen with this particular issue?

And what about HS2? Could Brenda come out as being anti HS2 and decide not to sign the bill into law. Or will we see the start of spades in the ground.

What about the Southern Rail dispute and the wider implications for DOO, do we think there is an end in sight for Southern Rail dispute or is this pt1 of a wider game being played by DaFT to be continued with a different toc in 2017.

What changes may happen on the forum, will a solution finally be found for the 442's, will for once someone accept they had the wrong ticket for the route they are on, will someone finally run into a Northern RPI who has an ounce of humanity.

Your predictions all welcome on rail, infrastructure, rolling stock and the ephemeral.

 

[infobleep]

I predict the GTR dispute will rumble on. It will be many months or longer before East Croydon to Milton Keynes services resume.

 

[euryalus]

I think the present right-wing, unelected Tory government will be hostile to railway investment. I have no confidence in them whatsoever - and Labour is now totally useless.

 

[yorksrob]

Grand Central will announce that they will be keeping their HST's on the Sunderland route until 2019 at least.

One can but hope

 

[Minilad]

I will not be delayed by a 1) Freight train 2) Late running VT 3) Being put behind the local.

Unlikely, but one can hope.

 

[broadgage]

I predict that the Govia/Southern dispute will drag on for some months and that the unions will loose and that the trains will eventually be driver only operated.

I predict that electrification will suffer more delays.

I predict general passenger disappointment with the new IEPs, regarding few tables, no buffet, limited legroom, lack of luggage space and being "voyager like"

I predict more large scale signalling failures resulting in passengers being advised not to travel.

I predict more large scale disruption due to "extreme weather" in conditions that many would consider normal for the season.

 

[anti-pacer]

I predict that Northern will continue to talk the talk, but fail to walk the walk, in regards to everything.

Oh and Carillion will continue to deliver their unique style of customer service! I also predict Northern's toilets will continue to be the "luxury" we have all come to enjoy!

 

[GRALISTAIR]

I predict that the RUS Electrification document refresh will be eventually be published in 2017.

I predict that the HLOS will not be doom and gloom but we will get a fair bit of investment

 

[Tracked]

Bi-Mode 442's, the ones not being used as LHCS with 88's by Hull Trains

Bi-Mode Pacers. You Have Been Warned.

New Northern Stock to be Delivered Late

TPE's Cleethorpes service will continue to be a few minutes late into Sheffield

Someone will fix the leak in the roof on CHD platform 1, no, that's silly ...

 

[class26]

I think the present right-wing, unelected Tory government will be hostile to railway investment. I have no confidence in them whatsoever - and Labour is now totally useless.

Point of order. The government WAS elected, it has simply changed the person at the top. Happened under the last labour government as well when Brown ousted Blair so hardly unheard of.

 

[Class 170101]

I predict that the RUS Electrification document refresh will be eventually be published in 2017.

I predict that the HLOS will not be doom and gloom but we will get a fair bit of investment

I think at best the wiring of CP5 will be re-announced in CP6 or at worse quietly dropped. No additional wiring schemes announced.

 

[387star]

no one mentioning the south west trains franchise?

I think stagecoach will keep it as they are one of the best performing tocs in the country and have done a stellar job

I expect the 159s will be replaced as that would enable a massive 158/9 cascade... I'd imagine bi mode third rail-diesels being a possibility. I mean that is possible right?

I'd be sad if Stagecoach lost the franchise actually... call me nostalgic !

 

[kevconnor]

no one mentioning the south west trains franchise?

I think stagecoach will keep it as they are one of the best performing tocs in the country and have done a stellar job

I expect the 159s will be replaced as that would enable a massive 158/9 cascade... I'd imagine bi mode third rail-diesels being a possibility. I mean that is possible right?

I'd be sad if Stagecoach lost the franchise actually... call me nostalgic !

Maybe my standards are inherently set lower being from Northern land but I spent quite some time last year (2015) in the land of South West Trains travelling extensively around Hampshire and out to Exeter. I found them to be quite good. They were clean and on time. For a commuter train that's as much as I think you can really expect.

 

[CosherB]

Another legion of threads on here about how great / crap Pendolinos / Voyagers / IEPs are - so no change there then! :roll:

 

[Kite159]

Another legion of threads on future uses of the former Gatwick Express stock/185s

Several XC voyagers to run late

Another ATW pacer to start smoking

 

[MadCommuter]

I predict that the CS 73s will still have poor reliability for the first half of the year at least. 90s will continue on the sleepers all year.

On a positive note, I predict the 385s will enter service as planned and have relatively few failures. Nevertheless, the media will quick to jump on minor failures, labour and the tories will be quick to follow suit, and ScotRail will be forced in to giving away further ticket concessions during 2018.

 

[al78]

I predict more large scale disruption due to "extreme weather" in conditions that many would consider normal for the season.

If you mean high winds, that is always going to cause disruption regardless of whether one or two significant storms per year are normal. High winds damage power lines and blow trees down across railway lines, which inevitably leads to disruption. Heavy rainfall from the storm can cause significant flooding (e.g. Christmas 2013). There is no way around that. You will likely find that high winds and flooding in other countries cause damage and disruption as well. Fortunately it is rare to have major disruption on the railways due to acts of God, and when it does happen it usually lasts a day or two (2013/14 winter excepted).

If you mean snow and ice, that is possibly due to some parts of the railway having no slack in the timetable because it is virtually maxed out in terms of using available capacity. If ice forms on the lines this increases the stopping distance, which means the trains have to run slower for safety reasons, which means the journey times are longer, and if there is no slack in the timetable to absorb that extra journey time the end result is delays and possible cancellations. The problem in the southern half of the UK is that significant snowfall is sufficiently rare that is not worth the bother and expense to have snow clearing machines on standby to be used once every few years at most. The same problem exists on the roads, in that if there has been a heavy overnight snowfall people will (generally) drive slower in the morning rush hour, and will still occasionally get stuck or crash because they haven't got winter driving skills (because we don't get proper winter conditions very often), and/or think it is not worth the bother and expense to get winter tyres fitted, and the local authorities do not grit all roads.

 

[backontrack]

Apologies and thanks in advance to those mentioned.

Fishquinn, having read my fantastic series of Welsh trip reports (which I will finish), will decide to go to North Wales himself - only without using any Voyagers. He will go missing for several months, but will eventually be found in August crying himself to sleep at the Costa in Conwy High Street. He will reveal that he accidentally boarded a Super Voyager in Crewe and became locked in the toilet.

A new account is created by someone who asks 'what is this railside plaque with the switch on it'? Railsigns will have a nervous breakdown, and will be forced to wander the streets, screaming at random objects the words "IT'S A DATUM PLATE!!!!"

Aston Villa won't get relegated, but won't be promoted either. Nobody will mind, as long as they're doing better than Birmingham. However, both 96tommy and I will be forced to cry in a corner when Gary Mills, having loaned away every single player who was on the books when McNamara was manager, realises too late in May that Jon Parkin alone isn't enough to stave off relegation, even when Guiseley are involved.

Brexit will happen, though a few posters will be 'surprised' when they discover that negotiations didn't go quite go to plan. (The General Discussion Forum will be reduced to just Steveman and ArcticTroll shouting at each other.) Anyway, the results of the vote will be disastrous for the UK - though they won't be the worst thing of the year by far because: Trump.

Oh, and Nigel Farage will move to California, Boris Johnson will resign, David Davis will be sacked, Star Wars VIII will be great (though there'll be protests that it's anti-Trump in some corners), more famous people will die, the Greens will poll at a record high, and, oh, Labour will be reduced to fourth in the country overall. It'll be a strange year.

That is all.

 

[superkev]

I predict the project to fasten those heavy engines and parafanalier under the 319 trailers will like the bi mode voyager project be deemed to be unaffordable.
K

 

[507021]

Here's my rail predictions for 2017:

Rolling stock:
- We won't find out what the rolling stock solution is for the Wales and Borders franchise.
- The issues over DCO on Merseyrail's new Stadler EMUs won't be resolved.
- More EDMU trains are ordered from Stadler for the South West franchise to replace the Class 158/159 fleets.
- The Northern 195/331 order is altered, with either more 195s added on or some 331s converted to 195s.

Infrastructure:
- Construction of HS2 does not start in 2017.
- Electrification of the Windermere branch is cancelled.
- One or more new stations for the Merseyrail network (or City Line) are announced.

I'll have to review these next year and see how many I got right!

 

[dangie]

I predict that electrification of The Chase Line from Walsall to Rugeley will not be complete until December 2018. Current prediction December 2017.

Also that costs will rise to £200 million. Current prediction £100 million (original costs £30 million).

 

[Macwomble]

I predict that Labour in Scotland will still be blaming Scotrail for everything that goes t**s up when it's mostly Network Rail's fault.

 

[Mag_seven]

I'll get the first post of 2017 on these forums

 

[rg177]

The DOO debate thread will instead turn into a set of fencing duels in order to settle the debate once and for all.

 

[Bevan Price]

Rail:
1. The Liverpool Lime Street platform reorganisation / rebuild will overrun.
2. The growth in rail passenger numbers will show signs of stopping - and in Southern territory, passenger numbers may fall considerably.
3. The system of UK rail fares will not be simplified, although publicised "attempts to simplify" will be used as a device for "unannounced" fare increases.
4. The tories will further delay rail electrification & improvement schemes in order to finance more road building.

Non-rail.
1. I fear that Mr Trump will upset so many people that the FBI & CIA will have a hard job to protect him from someone trying "a Kennedy" job.

2. Despite the tories messing with NHS, Labour will still remain unelectable.

 

[158756]

1) Electrification costs will continue to balloon out of control.
2) Salford-Euxton wires will not be completed this year.
3) TPE and/or MML electrification will be scrapped.
4) The Southern dispute will end with DOO implemented and the striking staff considerably out of pocket
5) Despite the recent fire, a batch of 230s will be ordered as (insert franchise here) realises it doesn't have enough trains/ new trains won't arrive on time/ all the Sprinters can't be refurbished in time.
6) Something will go wrong with the new Northern franchise, probably one of the factors listed in (5).
7) A credible plan for the Welsh Valleys will not appear.
8) Skelmersdale will be no closer to having a station.
9) The forum will be filled with criticism for the Class 800/801.

 

[jon0844]

Govia will continue to amaze the entire world by introducing fully driverless train operation by the end of the year, having beaten expert predictions suggesting it could take 15-20 years.

Of course, pedants will argue that simply not running the trains because of the lack of a driver isn't what people actually meant when talking about driverless trains.

 

[rg177]

Govia will continue to amaze the entire world by introducing fully driverless train operation by the end of the year, having beaten expert predictions suggesting it could take 15-20 years.

Of course, pedants will argue that simply not running the trains because of the lack of a driver isn't what people actually meant when talking about driverless trains.

This is the best thing I've read this year already

 

[jon0844]

This is the best thing I've read this year already

A little over two hours in, I am not sure the bar was set very high!

 

[deltic]

HS2 will start construction work - Hybrid Bill for HS2 extension to Crewe will start in Parliament.

DOO dispute will continue and spread to Anglia and SWT. TfL will close booking offices on London Overground/rail.

Network Rail sell off will be proposed again

Another study will be commissioned on the structure of the railways and why everything costs so much compared to Europe

However futher rail closures and accidents in France due to failing infrastructure suggests continental approach is no longer sustainable

Futher rail upgrades are postponed and new rolling stock is widely critisised for. Ring cheap and uncomfortable