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2019 fares yet on system?

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Bletchleyite

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BR Fares only shows current fares; always has done. So you will see the new fares on 2 January! In the long-term I'd like to update it to show historic, current and future fares (the latter within the period when they're on sale for future travel, of course). But it's a big change and a long-term project.

Ah, fair enough. If you're the person that did it, a massive thanks - it's incredibly useful.
 
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Fares are to rise by 3.1. percent but London Transport fares are frozen. Will London Transport see many more pax, at the expense of London TOC routes, as a result of people switching to LU, LO or bus, where that is a possibility?

Examples of fare increases that will be paid by many London commuters (including those using TfL services exclusively):

A zone 1-2 annual Oyster will increase from £1364 to £1404, a 2.93% increase
A zone 1-6 annual Oyster will increase from £2492 to £2568, a 3.05% increase

Source: http://ojp.nationalrail.co.uk/service/seasonticket/tickets
 

janb

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The WMT Only MKC ticket was only allowed because of grandfather rights. Has the DfT perhaps withdrawn this?

It appears that the £15 Milton Keynes - London LNWR Only Off Peak Day Return has been replaced by a £15 Milton Keynes - London LNWR Only Super Off Peak Day Return with far greater restrictions.
 

Bletchleyite

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It appears that the £15 Milton Keynes - London LNWR Only Off Peak Day Return has been replaced by a £15 Milton Keynes - London LNWR Only Super Off Peak Day Return with far greater restrictions.

Strange, I can't get that to show even if I try on a Sunday lunchtime! When is it valid?

@OwlMan the list isn't visible, sorry?
 

Bletchleyite

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Should be there now

It is, cheers.

Must admit that alongside Gatwick this is one of the worst ones, I worked it out for a friend on Friday and the complexity is utterly appalling for a short distance commuter flow. Really, the TOC specific fares need binning off and the Any Permitted reduced (so the change is revenue neutral) then just have Anytime, Off Peak, and Super Off Peak singles, returns and Travelcards (not sure I'd even bother with period returns). And no Advances; they are silly on flows like this and just cause unnecessary station congestion to save a very small amount on the walk-up fare.
 
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yorksrob

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Frozen fares only on TfL operated services and sadly TfL's finances are slowly going to rats***.

Given that the London/SE TOCs, which had mostly been paying money to the Govt, seem to be struggling financially any suggestions of yet further subsidies for the North have no chance of fulfillment.

Don't forget, the subsidies we get in the North (which are reducing due to franchise specs) don't occur in isolation. We get a lot less infrastructure investment up here even though we get a higher subsidy.
 

infobleep

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I wonder what the is the fares rise that the average passenger will be paying?

Also what is the fares rise that the average commuter will be paying? I doubt it's the average fares rise in either case as I didn't think average fares rises took into account number of tickets that are purchased.

Am I correct on the last point?
 
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janb

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Strange, I can't get that to show even if I try on a Sunday lunchtime! When is it valid?

No arrival in London before 1300 M-Sat, no departure 1600-1900
No return from London 1600-1900 M-Sat

Ticket code "SOL", I can get it to show up on Journey Planner/STAR but not the online sites.
 

Ianno87

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It is, cheers.

Must admit that alongside Gatwick this is one of the worst ones, I worked it out for a friend on Friday and the complexity is utterly appalling for a short distance commuter flow. Really, the TOC specific fares need binning off and the Any Permitted reduced (so the change is revenue neutral) then just have Anytime, Off Peak, and Super Off Peak singles, returns and Travelcards (not sure I'd even bother with period returns). And no Advances; they are silly on flows like this and just cause unnecessary station congestion to save a very small amount on the walk-up fare.

I remember trying to explain to a friend who wanted to do an evening peak-ish trip from Euston to Rugby, breaking journey at Milton Keynes, how to get the best fare... It was complicated to say the least.
 

swt_passenger

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I wonder what the is the fares rise that the average passenger will be paying?

Also what is the fares rise that the average committee will be paying? I doubt it's the average fares rise in either case as I didn't think average fares rises took into account number of tickets that are purchased.

Am I correct on the last point?
Difficult to tell unless you define the membership of your ‘average committee’. They might get a group discount...:D
 

strawbrick

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Does anyone know how the "average" figure for the increases is applied?
Do they really mean "average" as in arithmetic mean (all the fare income in a year divided by the number of tickets sold), or median (the mid-point fare) or mode (the most frequent fare)?
Given the plethora of different fares available which type of fare is included and how do they allow for the differences?
Or is just, last year we took £1,000,000 in fares, this year we will want £31,000 more so let us try some sums and see what come up?
Finally, what happens if the revenue increases by more than the stated "average", where does the excess go?
 

Paul Kelly

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Does anyone know how the "average" figure for the increases is applied?
Do they really mean "average" as in arithmetic mean (all the fare income in a year divided by the number of tickets sold), or median (the mid-point fare) or mode (the most frequent fare)?
Given the plethora of different fares available which type of fare is included and how do they allow for the differences?
Or is just, last year we took £1,000,000 in fares, this year we will want £31,000 more so let us try some sums and see what come up?
Finally, what happens if the revenue increases by more than the stated "average", where does the excess go?
Plenty of detail in this document: http://orr.gov.uk/__data/assets/pdf_file/0005/4289/sra-fares-conclusions-2003.pdf

Section 6.3 on page 22 is quite enlightening:
  • All regulated fares will be regulated by means of a fares basket.
  • Each train operator will have two fares baskets. A ‘Commuter Fares’ basket will contain regulated urban commuter fares, in other words all those fares that are regulated in a fares basket under current fares regulation. A ‘Protected Fares’ basket will contain all fares that are currently individually regulated.
  • Each fares basket will be simplified, and will contain only those fares which together account for around 95% of revenue from all regulated fares
  • Travelcard fares and fares set by other operators will remain included in Commuter Fares baskets, but Protected Fares baskets will only contain fares which are set by that operator.
  • Increases in individual fares within fares baskets will be limited to 5% above the basic policy (ie RPI+6%) in any given year.
although there is more to it than that.
 

strawbrick

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Plenty of detail in this document: http://orr.gov.uk/__data/assets/pdf_file/0005/4289/sra-fares-conclusions-2003.pdf

Section 6.3 on page 22 is quite enlightening:

although there is more to it than that.

Surely a document prepared in 2003, by an organisation which was abolished in 2006 which includes such gems as:
"The SRA has considered whether fares regulation needs to be altered to accommodate changes likely as a result of the introduction of smartcard ticketing both in London and as part of
smartcard schemes around the country. It has concluded that smartcard schemes are at present insufficiently developed to make specific changes to fares regulation necessary" is a bit out of date!
 

Paul Kelly

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Well, one could argue that the fares structure and regulation is inherently out of date (effectively frozen for over 20 years now). I don't think there has been the political will to make any substantial changes in the 15 years since that document was published.
 

lyndhurst25

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BR Fares only shows current fares; always has done. So you will see the new fares on 2 January! In the long-term I'd like to update it to show historic, current and future fares (the latter within the period when they're on sale for future travel, of course). But it's a big change and a long-term project.

A bit like http://www.farehistory.info used to do for historic fares then? That was very useful but hasn't worked properly for a while now. It says that the Source Code for the website is available to download and I'd try to fix it if I could but it's all gibberish to me. The historical Routeing Guide section is still updated though.


Has anyone noticed any scandalous rip-off changes in the new 2019 fares yet? I'm thinking of stuff along the lines of when TPE recently abolished various Off Peak Day Return fares. Hopefully the rail operators in the north of England haven't got the nerve to do anything similar at the moment, given the appalling service we've had over the past few months.
 

swt_passenger

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The idea of “Fares Baskets” as described in 2003 which allowed some of the regulated fares to rise higher than others if balanced by some lower increases were changed every few years, but variation within the basket was abolished in 2015 according to the parliamentary briefing here, page 8 refers:
The ‘fares basket’ is essentially a way of applying a limit or ‘cap’ to a weighted average of the relevant fares for each TOC.
What this means in practice is that the RPI +/- ‘cap’ applies to the total value of a fares basket, there can be increases in individual fares that are greater (or less) than the permitted increase in the basket as a whole.
In turn, this variation on individual fares within the fares basket cap has been limited by Government. For most years after 2004 this was set at 5% - it was abolished for 2010 then reintroduced for 2011 before being reduced to 2% in 2014 and then abolished entirely.

http://researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/SN01904/SN01904.pdf

It seems to me this rather went under the radar...
 

bicbasher

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Frozen fares only on TfL operated services and sadly TfL's finances are slowly going to rats***.

And those NR routes on the TfL farescale, such as Moorgate to Drayton Park on Great Northern for example, New Cross Gate to Crystal Palace/West Croydon on Southern and the Thameslink core.
 

Wolfie

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Don't forget, the subsidies we get in the North (which are reducing due to franchise specs) don't occur in isolation. We get a lot less infrastructure investment up here even though we get a higher subsidy.
A lot of the infrastructure spend down South is funded locally
 

Paul Kelly

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Do you happen to have a link to the longer (ie monthly and annual) travelcard prices?
Don't you just multiply the weekly prices by 3.84 to get the monthly price, and by 40 to get the annual price, similarly to seasons wholly on National Rail?
 

Hadders

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Don't you just multiply the weekly prices by 3.84 to get the monthly price, and by 40 to get the annual price, similarly to seasons wholly on National Rail?

Normally and that is the case with TfL. There are exceptions though - Stevenage to London Terminals being an example.

The prices are all out there in the Mayor’s decision paper on the GLA website. I’m out and about at the moment so can’t link to it.
 

plcd1

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Fares are to rise by 3.1. percent but London Transport fares are frozen. Will London Transport see many more pax, at the expense of London TOC routes, as a result of people switching to LU, LO or bus, where that is a possibility?

There is little evidence of any of this happening. The fares freeze has been in for two years. LU ridership is increasing but only very slowly. Bus usage is declining month on month with no sign of recovery. TfL are cutting the bus network in the central area which is probably pushing people on to the tube but elsewhere people are just not travelling as they used to do. Numbers for Tramlink, Overground and DLR are broadly static. TfL claim this as a "success" from the fares freeze because there are not patronage losses. Hard to know if that is true or not as no demonstrable evidence has been published. TfL Rail numbers are up but most of that is down to the former Heathrow Connect service being taken over - that's added about 600k-700k pass jnys each period. Theoretically the Shenfield line should have seen a small rise as the instances of weekend closures have reduced. However the numbers aren't published by route so hard to know for certain.
 

ForTheLoveOf

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I'd be interested in the answer to this too, is it still Hatton to Lapworth?
It will probably take someone with access to the industry fares data to confirm it. Once RDG updates the fares data package currently uploaded on their website (they unfortunately usually only tend to do this around a month after each fares round), I can confirm it authoritatively.

However it seems highly likely to me, as all of the TOCs are applying the maximum permitted increases of 3.1%, and it would take a significant manual price cut for any other route to be cheaper. Such a price cut would presumably have been announced to 'counteract' the bad PR of the price increase.
 
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