2021 fare increases

[Skimpot flyer]

Is the traditional January fare increase going ahead as usual?
A quick search on Google doesn’t reveal any recent news articles about this, save for this one from the Daily Mail

Rail fares set to spike over inflation rate

Train fares are set to spike by 2.6 per cent at the start of 2021 with annual ticket costs predicted to soar by £80 on average. Commuters have just weeks to buy their season tickets at 2020 prices.

www.dailymail.co.uk

Train fares are set to spike above inflation at the start of 2021 with annual ticket costs predicted to soar by £80 on average.

Commuters and frequent travellers have just weeks to buy their season tickets at 2020 prices before a 2.6 per cent rise is imposed, reports suggest.

It would be the first time in eight years that the rise has exceeded inflation

The railway industry needs two months to action Government fare increases within its operations

This means that the 1 per cent above inflation increase will not come into play on the first working day in January - as is custom - but in early 2021, it is understood.

(I note they can’t resist saying commuters only have ‘a few weeks’ to renew season tickets at 2020 prices. I thought you can only renew a maximum of 7 days ahead, anyway?)

 

[CyrusWuff]

New fares are effective from four weeks before the fares change date, so I'd imagine they'll appear either on Sunday or Monday...assuming the DfT don't move the goalposts at the last minute again.

 

[alistairlees]

No new fares just yet. Don’t know when.

 

[mikeg]

Still don't appear to be any new fares. My bet is that a lot of TOC only fares will go as that would make sense given the new funding model. But then the railway seldom does sensible things with fares!

 

[Haywain]

Still don't appear to be any new fares. My bet is that a lot of TOC only fares will go as that would make sense given the new funding model. But then the railway seldom does sensible things with fares!

I think it would be foolish to expect changes of that nature to occur at this stage, especially as the ultimate paymasters (the Treasury) are extremely averse to any risk of reducing revenue.

Eidt: From an official RDG brief that I have just read: "Customers enquiring about the new fares should be advised that the current prices will continue without change until customers are notified of a change."

 

[Starmill]

I think it would be foolish to expect changes of that nature to occur at this stage, especially as the ultimate paymasters (the Treasury) are extremely averse to any risk of reducing revenue.

Indeed. However, some TOC only fares were pretty 'transient' anyway, appearing and disappearing, moving up and down in price based on the reaction of the others, the fares of other transport operators or even car fuel prices in some cases.

This commercial process will probably cease, or at least slow significantly. TransPennine Express withdrew a lot of their TPE Only fares early in the pandemic, some of which have reappeared or been adjusted in price. To give another example, Avanti West Coast increased almost all of theirs to 10p less than the next alternative at the same time as they introduced their cheaper singles, it seems unlikely that they will go back down, and very possible that that was a precursor to withdrawal.

However you're quite right that long-standing well used ones, such as LNR tickets from Crewe to London, seem very unlikely to go all at once. Northern's bargain rate Advance tickets, which fill a fairly similar role to the LNR Super Off Peak tickets, which are frequently available right up until departure time are also still going, and seem to be available nearly all the time, broadly subject to capacity (which there is lots of).

 

[Brissle Girl]

I think it would be foolish to expect changes of that nature to occur at this stage, especially as the ultimate paymasters (the Treasury) are extremely averse to any risk of reducing revenue.

Given the vast majority of these fares were effectively just gaming the ORCATS system, (ie looking to generate additional revenue for the TOC, rather than an overall increase in revenue) I would have thought they would be well in the line of sight for the DfT. Their removal could also be spun as a simplification of the fare system.

 

[Starmill]

Their removal could also be spun as a simplification of the fare system

The Transport Secretary already claimed as much, although to be honest I'm not sure how many people really believed him:

In a statement, Transport Secretary, Grant Shapps said: "The model of privatisation adopted 25 years ago has seen significant rises in passenger numbers, but this pandemic has proven that it is no longer working."

He said the move to a new system would end "uncertainty and confusion about whether you are using the right ticket or the right train company".

Rail franchises axed as help for train firms extended

The rail franchising system has been scrapped and a £3.5bn survival scheme for train firms extended.

www.bbc.com

 

[Bletchleyite]

This commercial process will probably cease, or at least slow significantly. TransPennine Express withdrew a lot of their TPE Only fares early in the pandemic, some of which have reappeared or been adjusted in price. To give another example, Avanti West Coast increased almost all of theirs to 10p less than the next alternative at the same time as they introduced their cheaper singles, it seems unlikely that they will go back down, and very possible that that was a precursor to withdrawal.

I'm not sure that was a precursor to withdrawal, but more that it was a slightly cynical but probably fairly effective way of bumping them to the top of the list as "cheapest" when purchasing online, while maximising revenue from them. I would now expect them to go, though.

However you're quite right that long-standing well used ones, such as LNR tickets from Crewe to London, seem very unlikely to go all at once. Northern's bargain rate Advance tickets, which fill a fairly similar role to the LNR Super Off Peak tickets, which are frequently available right up until departure time are also still going, and seem to be available nearly all the time, broadly subject to capacity (which there is lots of).

I would be both unsurprised and pleased if the rather pointless LNR Only and Avanti Only fares from MKC to Euston (and the similar nonsense at Gatwick) disappeared, also all the Northern Only ones for local journeys and possibly the more pointless Advances around there. However, the LNR Only fares from the South East to the Midlands and the North West serve a slightly different purpose, in that they genuinely grow the market by providing a low-cost option to attract people out of "old bangers" and off coaches. You could argue perhaps that the latter isn't something the railway needs to do (but the former definitely is) - but while we consider transport modes independently it does make sense. It's fairly unlikely that the LNR Only fares will cause many people to switch TOC (though some might), rather the availability of them means people choose rail who otherwise wouldn't in fairly large numbers.

That said, I could see an argument to get rid of the LNR Only fares to Birmingham (specifically) because Chiltern provide the budget option there, but I wouldn't be too sure it will happen.

 

[Haywain]

The Transport Secretary already claimed as much, although to be honest I'm not sure how many people really believed him:

Rail franchises axed as help for train firms extended

The rail franchising system has been scrapped and a £3.5bn survival scheme for train firms extended.

www.bbc.com

A statement like that would be more convincing if it came with a timeline for making such changes.

 

[yorkie]

That said, I could see an argument to get rid of the LNR Only fares to Birmingham (specifically) because Chiltern provide the budget option there, but I wouldn't be too sure it will happen....

If anyone wishes to create a thread for suggestions/ideas relating to potential fare changes that would be useful; feel free to link to it from here.

But let's keep this one for actual updates if possible please

If anyone hears of a new date for the fares rise, it would be good to know.

 

[Haywain]

If anyone hears of a new date for the fares rise, it would be good to know.

It's been deferred because no decision has been made about the level of increase to regulated fares, and that decision has a lead time anyway. Taking a guess, I wouldn't be surprised if it's all deferred until May.

 

[paul1609]

I'm not sure that was a precursor to withdrawal, but more that it was a slightly cynical but probably fairly effective way of bumping them to the top of the list as "cheapest" when purchasing online, while maximising revenue from them. I would now expect them to go, though.



I would be both unsurprised and pleased if the rather pointless LNR Only and Avanti Only fares from MKC to Euston (and the similar nonsense at Gatwick) disappeared, also all the Northern Only ones for local journeys and possibly the more pointless Advances around there. However, the LNR Only fares from the South East to the Midlands and the North West serve a slightly different purpose, in that they genuinely grow the market by providing a low-cost option to attract people out of "old bangers" and off coaches. You could argue perhaps that the latter isn't something the railway needs to do (but the former definitely is) - but while we consider transport modes independently it does make sense. It's fairly unlikely that the LNR Only fares will cause many people to switch TOC (though some might), rather the availability of them means people choose rail who otherwise wouldn't in fairly large numbers.

That said, I could see an argument to get rid of the LNR Only fares to Birmingham (specifically) because Chiltern provide the budget option there, but I wouldn't be too sure it will happen.

If the LNR only fares to Crewe went my Kent to Northwest/ northwales coast journeys will all go to road. Probably motorbike/ travelodge for short trips. Coach for walking trips.

 

[Bletchleyite]

If the LNR only fares to Crewe went my Kent to Northwest/ northwales coast journeys will all go to road. Probably motorbike/ travelodge for short trips. Coach for walking trips.

Exactly - that's the market segmentation they provide - they make people go by rail for journeys where they wouldn't even consider it otherwise by offering a lower price, meaning they are in a different market entirely compared with Avanti with relatively little overlap.

That's nothing like TOC specific fares for £0.10 less than the Any Permitted, which are just a petty spat.

 

[paul1609]

Exactly - that's the market segmentation they provide - they make people go by rail for journeys where they wouldn't even consider it otherwise by offering a lower price, meaning they are in a different market entirely compared with Avanti with relatively little overlap.

That's nothing like TOC specific fares for £0.10 less than the Any Permitted, which are just a petty spat.

The strange thing is that the rail industry doesnt appear to recognise this and the strategy is only followed/experienced on some routes.
From my home base the ECML is prohibitively expensive once you get much past Newark and definately once you reach Doncaster. Both routes are uncompetitive to Scotland. The Sleeper seats are priced reasonably but for an overnight journey the non stop Megabus is a better product at half the cost.

 

[Wallsendmag]

Customers enquiring about the new fares should be advised that the current prices will continue without change until customers are notified of a change.

 

[Haywain]

Customers enquiring about the new fares should be advised that the current prices will continue without change until customers are notified of a change.

As per post #5.

 

[Wallsendmag]

As per post #5.

Missed that.

 

[robbob700]

Does anyone know when the new TfL fares from January are likely to be announced. Aren't these rising by 2.6% as a condition of the TfL bailout earlier this year?

 

[CyrusWuff]

Does anyone know when the new TfL fares from January are likely to be announced. Aren't these rising by 2.6% as a condition of the TfL bailout earlier this year?

The Mayoral Decision relating to the TfL fares change - which normally comes out in the last week of November - has yet to be published, so it's possible it may be postponed as well.

 

[thedbdiboy]

The distinction between so-called regulated and unregulated fares is now entirely academic. The Treasury is taking full revenue risk and DfT need to agree any changes so all fares are defacto under the direction of government.

 

[infobleep]

It's been deferred because no decision has been made about the level of increase to regulated fares, and that decision has a lead time anyway. Taking a guess, I wouldn't be surprised if it's all deferred until May.

But surely they need to increase fares to help fund keeping the railways running, along with improvements? I could at this point link to any statements from previous years rise justifications.

In all seriousness, I appricate covid-19 has changed things.

I wonder if any newspaper will report on fares not rising at this time?

 

[Dstock7080]

Rail fare rise a ‘kick in the teeth’ for passengers

Fares will rise more than expected next year, although the 2.6% increase will be delayed until March.

www.bbc.co.uk

Rail fares will rise more than expected next year - although the new inflation-busting 2.6% increase is being delayed until 1 March.

Regulated fares were expected to increase by 1.6% in January, as successive governments linked annual rises to July's RPI inflation rate.

 

[startingaparty]

The increasing fares next year is only going to disadvantage the poor who can't afford driving lessons, running a car and rely on public transport to travel to low-pay jobs in retail and hospitality. I'd hoped the rail franchises coming under government control would bring more competitive fares. I'm disappointed.

 

[Bletchleyite]

The increasing fares next year is only going to disadvantage the poor who can't afford driving lessons, running a car and rely on public transport to travel to low-pay jobs in retail and hospitality. I'd hoped the rail franchises coming under government control would bring more competitive fares. I'm disappointed.

Is it? The majority of those people will be travelling comparatively small distances to work and thus more likely by bus.

 

[dk1]

Wonder how many times the media will use the phrase 'eye wateringly high fares' this year & quote Manchester-Euston FOR?

 

[DB]

Well, this will do wonders to attract people back to using trains, won't it...

 

[Mojo]

Does anyone know when the new TfL fares from January are likely to be announced. Aren't these rising by 2.6% as a condition of the TfL bailout earlier this year?

The Mayoral Decision relating to the TfL fares change - which normally comes out in the last week of November - has yet to be published, so it's possible it may be postponed as well.

The decision for the fares was made after the contractual date for their suppliers to input the relevant fares data; a decision was being made whether to have two fare change dates but it was decided to postpone until it’s ready.

 

[startingaparty]

Is it? The majority of those people will be travelling comparatively small distances to work and thus more likely by bus.

Maybe if you live in the inner-cities. In the suburbs and semi-rural towns and villages of the North bus services have been cut to oblivion but at least they are fortunate enough to have a railway station.

I can speak from experience as someone who spends a significant chunk of their pay commuting to and from Manchester. Any rise in fares is a big dent in my monthly budget and getting multiple bus journeys is just unrealistic every morning and afternoon for a 20 mile journey.

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

The increasing fares next year is only going to disadvantage the poor who can't afford driving lessons, running a car and rely on public transport to travel to low-pay jobs in retail and hospitality. I'd hoped the rail franchises coming under government control would bring more competitive fares. I'm disappointed.

Rail franchises and regulated fares, in particular seasons, were already under government control (pre-Covid), and have been throughout privatisation.
All the private companies have done is tinker round the edges with the levels of advances, some off-peak and first class fares (which are unregulated).
A complete fares restructuring is in the offing but will not bring the general level of fares down, as the Treasury can't afford it.