2021 fare increases

[DB]

A complete fares restructuring is in the offing but will not bring the general level of fares down, as the Treasury can't afford it.

I'll believe it when it happens! This has been promised a good few times, and in the end all that results is a bit of tinkering around the edges.

 

[Turtle]

I'll believe it when it happens! This has been promised a good few times, and in the end all that results is a bit of tinkering around the edges.

Quite so. It requires firm action on a national basis by someone with "grip" in charge for as long as it takes. Likelihood, nil in our present circumstances I'm afraid.

 

[Haywain]

Quite so. It requires firm action on a national basis by someone with "grip" in charge for as long as it takes. Likelihood, nil in our present circumstances I'm afraid.

In a situation where the DfT is in charge and there are no franchises, the present circumstances are ideal for change.

 

[JonathanH]

As noted, this is exactly the right time for the DfT to change fares and there will be many people for whom that isn't necessarily a good thing.

 

[DelW]

So fares rise by over eight times the rate of inflation (0.3% in November.) So much for Johnson's "green agenda" - like everything else he says, it's all bluster, spin and outright lies.

Clothing and food price falls drive down UK inflation

Lower prices for clothing and food push down the UK's inflation rate to 0.3% in November.

www.bbc.co.uk

And this while he's imposing pay freezes on public sector employees (except for his cronies with £40,000 pa increases of course).

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

So fares rise by over eight times the rate of inflation (0.3% in November.) So much for Johnson's "green agenda" - like everything else he says, it's all bluster, spin and outright lies.

Clothing and food price falls drive down UK inflation

Lower prices for clothing and food push down the UK's inflation rate to 0.3% in November.

www.bbc.co.uk

And this while he's imposing pay freezes on public sector employees (except for his cronies with £40,000 pa increases of course).

The usual formula is RPI + 1% (invented by Labour, by the way), based on the July RPI index, which was 1.6% this year.
Can be different in Wales/Scotland.
The railway is not normally considered as part of the public sector for pay rises.
The bill for extra railway support during Covid is already about £10 billion and is increasing at nearly £1 billion a month.

 

[Haywain]

The usual formula is RPI + 1% (invented by Labour, by the way), based on the July RPI index, which was 1.6% this year.
Can be different in Wales/Scotland.
The railway is not normally considered as part of the public sector for pay rises.
The bill for extra railway support during Covid is already about £10 billion and is increasing at nearly £1 billion a month.

The voice of reason. However, I wouldn't be surprised if the railway suddenly does become part of the public sector for pay purposes!

 

[DelW]

The usual formula is RPI + 1% (invented by Labour, by the way), based on the July RPI index, which was 1.6% this year.
Can be different in Wales/Scotland.
The railway is not normally considered as part of the public sector for pay rises.
The bill for extra railway support during Covid is already about £10 billion and is increasing at nearly £1 billion a month.

True, but that doesn't mean it has to stay like that in perpetuity. The last Labour government was over a decade ago, and the Tories weren't elected (in any of the recent elections) on the basis that they wouldn't change any Labour policies. Johnson in particular claimed that he would improve things by "levelling up" - which I doubt this fare rise will help, although I'd accept it's probably not a major factor.

 

[MikeWh]

The decision for the fares was made after the contractual date for their suppliers to input the relevant fares data; a decision was being made whether to have two fare change dates but it was decided to postpone until it’s ready.

And I've been told officially that both TfL and NR will change on the same date.

 

[alistairlees]

This BBC article on the topic is a load of twaddle so far as I can see.

It looks like he bought a Rugby to London route Northampton Standard Class Season in 1997, then has:
- added a Travelcard
- changed to route "Any Permitted"
- moved from Standard Class to First Class

That's the only way I can match his prices anyway.

Any thoughts?

I have put this in the comments in the article. Essentially the BBC is publishing 'fake news'. You may have noticed that the BBC campaigned vociferously against fake news in the recent US election. Double standards, anyone?

 

[Kite159]

This BBC article on the topic is a load of twaddle so far as I can see.

It looks like he bought a Rugby to London route Northampton Standard Class Season in 1997, then has:
- added a Travelcard
- changed to route "Any Permitted"
- moved from Standard Class to First Class

That's the only way I can match his prices anyway.

Any thoughts?

I have put this in the comments in the article. Essentially the BBC is publishing 'fake news'. You may have noticed that the BBC campaigned vociferously against fake news in the recent US election. Double standards, anyone?

I saw that person mentioned, not quite in the same field as a low paid worker who has no other option than to use the train to commute (ie doesn't drive).

 

[yorkie]

This BBC article on the topic is a load of twaddle so far as I can see.

It looks like he bought a Rugby to London route Northampton Standard Class Season in 1997, then has:
- added a Travelcard
- changed to route "Any Permitted"
- moved from Standard Class to First Class

That's the only way I can match his prices anyway.

Any thoughts?

I have put this in the comments in the article. Essentially the BBC is publishing 'fake news'. You may have noticed that the BBC campaigned vociferously against fake news in the recent US election. Double standards, anyone?

Agreed.

Also, based on the figures given, his salary in 1997 was £68k and is now £103k, which is a reduction in real terms, taking inflation into account. It may be higher than this if he is using the net pay figure.

Clearly he is well enough paid that he can afford to travel 1st class; I don't begrudge this at all, but it's disingenuous to make this out to be part of an "increase".

99% of people will just see the headline figures and won't do any analysis.

 

[Watershed]

This BBC article on the topic is a load of twaddle so far as I can see.

It looks like he bought a Rugby to London route Northampton Standard Class Season in 1997, then has:
- added a Travelcard
- changed to route "Any Permitted"
- moved from Standard Class to First Class

That's the only way I can match his prices anyway.

Any thoughts?

I have put this in the comments in the article. Essentially the BBC is publishing 'fake news'. You may have noticed that the BBC campaigned vociferously against fake news in the recent US election. Double standards, anyone?

Indeed; Rugby to London is one of very few flows to have seen a notable real-terms decrease in fares - at least for the semi-fast LNR service that is as frequent as, and slightly faster than, the Intercity service provided at privatisation.

There are numerous flows where the complaint made in the article would be justifiable. The prime example would be a commute on Southeastern that has been slowed down due to HS1 as well as being substantially more expensive in real terms - to pay for the very thing that has made the commute worse.

This is just about the worst example they could have given.

 

[alistairlees]

If people could like the comment I have added to the BBC article, perhaps there is a small chance that the truth will float to the top. I have written a complaint to the BBC, they really annoy me with their poor quality journalism.

 

[MikeWh]

If people could like the comment I have added to the BBC article, perhaps there is a small chance that the truth will float to the top. I have written a complaint to the BBC, they really annoy me with their poor quality journalism.

I've highlighted the issue to a friend of mine who is a senior person at the BBC. She'll fully understand the issue as she commutes herself.

 

[Merle Haggard]

If people could like the comment I have added to the BBC article, perhaps there is a small chance that the truth will float to the top. I have written a complaint to the BBC, they really annoy me with their poor quality journalism.

I've written twice to the BBC about serious inaccuracy. Despite reminders, only reply I eventually got (when escalated to the BBC Trust) was on the lines of 'it's too long ago to consider'. So good luck with that one.
An example of the quality of their journalism; the R4 Today's transport correspondent, in an item the other day about Christmas rail travel, listed the actions the industry is taking as including ''completing as many roadworks as possible". It was clearly recorded, and repeated, so can't be excused as a slip of the tongue..

 

[Horizon22]

The usual formula is RPI + 1% (invented by Labour, by the way), based on the July RPI index, which was 1.6% this year.
Can be different in Wales/Scotland.
The railway is not normally considered as part of the public sector for pay rises.
The bill for extra railway support during Covid is already about £10 billion and is increasing at nearly £1 billion a month.

Makes sense but monthly inflation index has been so varied this year - I am surprised they don't take a RPI of the average across the year. July was just after the major restrictions lifted and there was a splurge of pent up spending.

Or maybe the DfT were happy with this coincidence...

 

[alistairlees]

Makes sense but monthly inflation index has been so varied this year - I am surprised they don't take a RPI of the average across the year. July was just after the major restrictions lifted and there was a splurge of pent up spending.

Or maybe the DfT were happy with this coincidence...

According to the Office of National Statistics, it was 2.7% in January and has since then steadily decreased to 0.9% in November, so it pretty much is an average of the year (by coincidence).

 

[Horizon22]

According to the Office of National Statistics, it was 2.7% in January and has since then steadily decreased to 0.9% in November, so it pretty much is an average of the year (by coincidence).

Still it's a bit of a relative spike generally. Not sure you can consider Jan-Mar representative of the year!

 

[Starmill]

I'm not even that concerned about the effect of a 2.6% maximum increase for a lot of fares, it mostly just means that tickets that are already very poor value will become even more poor value. People in my household, like people generally, aren't ever going to consider paying £38.90 per person for a return from Bolton to York or a Saturday of shopping for example, despite the journey time being competitive. Increasing that to £40.00 isn't going to make any difference to the likelihood that we might buy them. Cheaper tickets exist but or aren't suitable or are too much hassle for a Saturday of shopping. The railway simply isn't set up to take this sort of business.

What I'm far more concerned about is that there might be wholesale limitation of the actual best value for money fares, the TfW & LNR Super Off Peak between Manchester and London, £6 tickets between Birmingham and London on Chiltern Railways or day returns from Cheltenham to Bristol for example. None of these are likely to be directly reflected in the 2.6% announcement.

 

[alistairlees]

Still it's a bit of a relative spike generally. Not sure you can consider Jan-Mar representative of the year!

I consider January to November to be representative (December data are not currently available). The average for that is 1.527%.

 

[JonathanH]

I consider January to November to be representative (December data are not currently available). The average for that is 1.527%.

It should average out over successive years since July's figure of 1.6% is just the ratio of two entries in the time series for the RPI index - 294.2 in July 2020 and 289.5 in July 2019. Since July 2020, the RPI index has reduced from 294.2 to 293.5 in November., following four months when the index hardly changed. RPI in July 2021 will depend on that and the way in which prices change between now and July.

Averaging all of the annual increases in the year might actually lead to anomalous results.

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

2020 isn't at all typical.
RPI generally varies quite slowly with steady growth/dip in the economy, and in any case measures price changes over 12 months.
The July figure is chosen to get the changes in the admin/regulatory pipeline for the following January.
This is similar to how pension and other benefit increases are calculated, though they use a different month as the basis (September I think).
The government(s) can (and do) sometimes intervene to impose a higher or lower increase, but this year they have stuck with +1% (with a 2-month delay).
Government policy for a long time has been to raise rail fares above inflation to ease the pressure on the taxpayer.
The Treasury opposes all changes which are revenue-negative, meaning there would be winners and losers, and nobody wants to confront the losers.
(The losers are likely to be regular commuters with season tickets, and those on very cheap advance/super off-peak fares).

 

[Jamesrob637]

I'm not even that concerned about the effect of a 2.6% maximum increase for a lot of fares, it mostly just means that tickets that are already very poor value will become even more poor value. People in my household, like people generally, aren't ever going to consider paying £38.90 per person for a return from Bolton to York or a Saturday of shopping for example, despite the journey time being competitive. Increasing that to £40.00 isn't going to make any difference to the likelihood that we might buy them. Cheaper tickets exist but or aren't suitable or are too much hassle for a Saturday of shopping. The railway simply isn't set up to take this sort of business.

What I'm far more concerned about is that there might be wholesale limitation of the actual best value for money fares, the TfW & LNR Super Off Peak between Manchester and London, £6 tickets between Birmingham and London on Chiltern Railways or day returns from Cheltenham to Bristol for example. None of these are likely to be directly reflected in the 2.6% announcement.

How much is the TfW and LNR Super Off-Peak? I usually go Northern/LNR down and late Avanti back, compromising money and time.

 

[JonathanH]

How much is the TfW and LNR Super Off-Peak? I usually go Northern/LNR down and late Avanti back, compromising money and time.

£35 return

http://www.brfares.com/#faredetail?orig=MAN&dest=EUS&rte=371&tkt=OPR

PRICE
Fare set by:​	LBR WEST MIDLANDS TRAINS​
Passengers per ticket:​	1 adult OR 1 child​
Discount Status​	Status Code (shown on ticket)​	Price​
ADULT​	​	£35.00​
CHILD​	CHILD​	£17.50​

VALIDITY
One journey in each direction to be made within​
Outward Validity:​	SEE RESTRICTNS (1 day) Break of journey is not permitted​
Return Validity:​	SEE RESTRICTNS (1 month)​

Outward Travel & Return Travel​
RESTRICTIONS
Restriction Code: JN Restricted Days: Mondays-Saturdays​
Not valid on trains timed to depart Manchester Piccadilly after 04:29 or before 10:30 and not between 16:00 to 19:00. Not valid on trains timed to depart London Euston after 04:29 or before 10:30 and not between 16:00 to 19:00.

I note there aren't many journey opportunities possible on this ticket. 1031 from Manchester Piccadllly gets to Crewe at 1109. The LNR departure from Crewe is 1133 and arrives at Euston at 1350.

The electronic restrictions appear to prevent return travel on the 1946 from Euston, not that there would be a connection once you get to Crewe.

Probably one for a period return.

 

[Jamesrob637]

£35 return

http://www.brfares.com/#faredetail?orig=MAN&dest=EUS&rte=371&tkt=OPR

Cheers! I think I paid around £50 the last time I went down but £30 ish was Avanti so that's probably only around the same as a Northern/LNR combo both ways. It's a little more flexible on times but TfW are only hourly from Crewe whereas Northern have one train via Stockport and one via the airport.

 

[alistairlees]

Cheers! I think I paid around £50 the last time I went down but £30 ish was Avanti so that's probably only around the same as a Northern/LNR combo both ways. It's a little more flexible on times but TfW are only hourly from Crewe whereas Northern have one train via Stockport and one via the airport.

The ticket is not valid on Northern.

 

[Starmill]

The electronic restrictions appear to prevent return travel on the 1946 from Euston, not that there would be a connection once you get to Crewe.

There was a 2308 TfW service from Crewe to Manchester, the 2015 from Cardiff Central. It now terminates at Crewe. The Northern service at 2312 still runs so you can use the 1946 or 2046 from London Euston, but as noted by alistairlees an additional ticket would be required (can usually be booked even on the day for about £5).

Let's not get any further down that rabbit hole though!

 

[Jamesrob637]

The ticket is not valid on Northern.

I mean I paid £50 as a combo of Northern, LNR and Avanti. But connections were favourable at Crewe to grab a sausage butty on the outward, while the return was done with speed and comfort

 

[Dstock7080]

Details of TfL fares package announced

The Mayor has already confirmed fares will rise by RPI+1 (2.6 per cent) overall across all services as a condition of the emergency TfL funding deal made with the Government, but Sadiq has kept some single pay as you go Tube, DLR, London Overground and TfL rail fares unchanged.
Bus and tram ‘Hopper’ fare - introduced by the Mayor and allowing unlimited journeys within an hour - will increase by just 5p to £1.55, the smallest increase possible and keeping the fare one of the best value in the country.
This rise –from 1 March 2021 – follows five years of frozen TfL fares set by the Mayor.
All current concessions, including free travel for young people under the age of 18, will also remain in place.
Details announced as TfL publishes plan setting out the level of Government funding required to place its finances on a sustainable footing, after fare income was decimated by the pandemic.