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22nd February - Roadmap out of the pandemic, lifting of restrictions.

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yorksrob

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The hare approach??

This will refer to the fallacy being peddled in some quarters that we threw open the doors of everthing in one go after lockdown one, when in fact you'll remember that reopening started slowly and had barely any affect on infection rates.

One would have expected SAGE and their like to follow this path, however they seem to have chosen to ignore all of their real world experience from the summer anyway.
 
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Bantamzen

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This is a great interview

Well worth spending 11 mins watching this one:





People who support harsh lockdowns or "Zero covid" strategies appear to think we should have been locked down all Summer, basically.
Halfway through that interview the professor makes a very important, and often forgotten point, those people advising the government are likely to live in nice homes, with big gardens where working from home doesn't seem that bad. Coupled with a brief from government to "stop covid", the professor then goes on to rightly say how this is driving a "at any cost" flow of advice, that is to say that any price is worth it. This seems to me to be a very blunt & frank assessment of the situation, and one that I agree with.

In effect the government has been & still is being advised by a group of scientists not asked to weigh up their recommendations against a wider societal cost, and a group that is unlikely to be exposed to the kinds of realities that those seriously affected have to as a result of their advice. Of course it would help if we had a government that would take a more balanced view, and not rely on worst case scenarios all the time. But we are probably aware just how weak this government really is, and explains why rather than take the advice away & measure it against all other potential costs, they simply shoved the scientific group in front of the cameras and said "What he said".

All this really needs deep investigation when it comes to a close, although I don't hold out too much hope that a meaningful on will happen.
 

35B

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The hare approach??
The tale of the hare and the tortoise. The tortoise plods slowly on, while the hare rushes then breaks. In the classic version of the story, the tortoise crosses the finishing line first.

As I use the phrase, and to correct @yorkie’s interpretation of me, the tortoise is the government’s current approach, the hare is the advocacy of early relaxation of current measures. To elaborate slightly, we have seen relaxation ahead of scientific consensus before, only to find a significant impact leading to a reversal of progress. I’d prefer not to go that way, and secure gains even at a slower pace rather than hurry things along but find that momentum is lost.
 

island

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Halfway through that interview the professor makes a very important, and often forgotten point, those people advising the government are likely to live in nice homes, with big gardens where working from home doesn't seem that bad. Coupled with a brief from government to "stop covid", the professor then goes on to rightly say how this is driving a "at any cost" flow of advice, that is to say that any price is worth it. This seems to me to be a very blunt & frank assessment of the situation, and one that I agree with.

In effect the government has been & still is being advised by a group of scientists not asked to weigh up their recommendations against a wider societal cost, and a group that is unlikely to be exposed to the kinds of realities that those seriously affected have to as a result of their advice. Of course it would help if we had a government that would take a more balanced view, and not rely on worst case scenarios all the time. But we are probably aware just how weak this government really is, and explains why rather than take the advice away & measure it against all other potential costs, they simply shoved the scientific group in front of the cameras and said "What he said".

All this really needs deep investigation when it comes to a close, although I don't hold out too much hope that a meaningful on will happen.
To the above very valid points I would add that the government, its advisors, and the public are being guided down the wrong path by the availability heuristic. This form of cognitive bias means people attach more weight or likelihood to events of which they can readily think of examples, such as vivid/shocking/recent/widely-covered events. The Wikipedia article gives the example that more people are killed by random parts falling of an aeroplane and hitting them than by shark attacks, but the vivid and shocking nature of shark attacks plus the tendency for them to be reported worldwide means they trigger the availability heuristic.

It is the same with COVID19. Because it’s been constantly available in all kinds of media for a year give or take, and because it has affected almost the entire country in some way or another, people overestimate the danger it poses. Stepping back and being rational for a while, it seems inevitable that the UK, and indeed the world, will need to learn to live with COVID19 and its impacts. Whilst every death due to COVID is sad, every measure to stop its spread has its side effects. Those effects, including hitting the economy and people’s physical and mental health, are not readily available or measurable, or at least not as available as the COVID19 statistics shoved in everyone’s faces daily.

I suspect if one poked about one would find that deaths with COVID19 in the under-50s are of the same order of magnitude as road deaths. Again, every death is sad – I am not minimising that. But road deaths have been normalized. Nobody suggesting banning cars would be taken seriously, and that is the same thought process we must go through with COVID19.

Finally, for the record, I am not advocating “throwing the doors open” right now. The vaccine rollout is progressing admirably well, and the current measures, or some of them, will help ensure its success by allowing more health staff to move from treating COVID19 to vaccinating against it. But the Prime Minister is absolutely right – each removal of restrictions going forward must be a one-way trip.
 

yorkie

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Of course, those who think the only issue is Covid are going to want to reopen as slowly as possible.

The talk of hare vs tortoise is laughable; in reality - if such analogies must be used - the debate is between the speed of a snail or a tortoise. That's the reality of the situation.

The fact that putting so much else at risk is deemed a "cautious" approach by some, when in reality it is a reckless approach, demonstrates perfectly the scale of the issues highlighted by Professor Dingwall.

As long as we keep Covid down, nothing else is really deemed to matter, that's the scale of the problem we are dealing with.

Society has never been more divided. But everyone should remember this: those who prioritise Covid above all else are not in disadvantaged groups and generally have secure work from home jobs (or have no need to work) and reasonably well proportioned homes. And they are not going to look at the bigger picture
 
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philosopher

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Halfway through that interview the professor makes a very important, and often forgotten point, those people advising the government are likely to live in nice homes, with big gardens where working from home doesn't seem that bad. Coupled with a brief from government to "stop covid", the professor then goes on to rightly say how this is driving a "at any cost" flow of advice, that is to say that any price is worth it. This seems to me to be a very blunt & frank assessment of the situation, and one that I agree with.
Watching that part of the video does remind me of a quote I have heard on lockdowns: “The middle classes hide away and the working classes bring them things”.
 

35B

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Of course, those who think the only issue is Covid are going to want to reopen as slowly as possible.

The talk of hare vs tortoise is laughable; in reality - if such analogies must be used - the debate is between the speed of a snail or a tortoise. That's the reality of the situation.

The fact that putting so much else at risk is deemed a "cautious" approach by some, when in reality it is a reckless approach, demonstrates perfectly the scale of the issues highlighted by Professor Dingwall.

As long as we keep Covid down, nothing else is really deemed to matter, that's the scale of the problem we are dealing with.

Society has never been more divided. But everyone should remember this: those who prioritise Covid above all else are not in disadvantaged groups and generally have secure work from home jobs (or have no need to work) and reasonably well proportioned homes. And they are not going to look at the bigger picture
I use the analogy because I've seen - as have we all - the impact of an about turn on Covid policy. We can agree to disagree on the right policy choices, but the reality is that what would be worse than the current situation would be a step back into it following a further wave of Covid. You don't believe it'll happen, I don't believe it likely to happen, but given the experience of the last year, a policy of wait and see isn't unreasonable.
 

Bantamzen

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I use the analogy because I've seen - as have we all - the impact of an about turn on Covid policy. We can agree to disagree on the right policy choices, but the reality is that what would be worse than the current situation would be a step back into it following a further wave of Covid. You don't believe it'll happen, I don't believe it likely to happen, but given the experience of the last year, a policy of wait and see isn't unreasonable.
The summer of 2021 will be nothing like 2020. Why? Because we have vaccine, and we already have over a third of the adult population have already been vaccinated. By the time everything reopens that will probably be closer to three quarters. So assuming that infections vs cases vs hospitalisations vs deaths between the years will be similar is going to be inaccurate. As has been said, it is now believed that the link between infections, hospitalisations and deaths has been broken.

If you are wanting data, you'd have to wait until well into 2022. And just for the record, most of us are not prepared to wait anything like that long, sorry.
 

TPO

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Of course, those who think the only issue is Covid are going to want to reopen as slowly as possible.

The talk of hare vs tortoise is laughable; in reality - if such analogies must be used - the debate is between the speed of a snail or a tortoise. That's the reality of the situation.

The fact that putting so much else at risk is deemed a "cautious" approach by some, when in reality it is a reckless approach, demonstrates perfectly the scale of the issues highlighted by Professor Dingwall.

As long as we keep Covid down, nothing else is really deemed to matter, that's the scale of the problem we are dealing with.

Society has never been more divided. But everyone should remember this: those who prioritise Covid above all else are not in disadvantaged groups and generally have secure work from home jobs (or have no need to work) and reasonably well proportioned homes. And they are not going to look at the bigger picture

Watching that part of the video does remind me of a quote I have heard on lockdowns: “The middle classes hide away and the working classes bring them things”.

Agree wholeheartedly with what you both say.

The extension to furlough until September fills me with dread at how long this malarky will go on for, and how much tax we will end up paying. No doubt it'll be the working classes and under 60's most penalised by the taxes too.

I cannot see a way out of this at the moment and so finding it very depressing.

TPO
 

WelshBluebird

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The extension to furlough until September fills me with dread at how long this malarky will go on for, and how much tax we will end up paying. No doubt it'll be the working classes and under 60's most penalised by the taxes too.

As a few people including myself have already said, if nothing the extension to September is further proof the government does believe in its timeline, specifically because of the requirements that employers start contributing in July and then contribute more in August.

It feels to me as if they are basically timing it so that businesses can't use "but you are forcing us to close" as a reason for wanting furlough to continue but making it so furlough doesn't end until after places are allowed to open fully again, and the extension through July and August, given the required employer contributions, is likely more to cover places that will take a little time to be get trade again (whilst some sectors will absolutely be busy as hell as soon as they are allowed to reopen, I am sure some others will take a little time for the public to regain their desire to visit, and so it is only right that those sectors are still supported).
 

duncanp

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I cannot see a way out of this at the moment and so finding it very depressing.

I don't think the fact that the furlough scheme has been extended to September is a cause to be depressed.

The fact that the government is reducing the level of support from July onwards (which is just after the planned lifting of all restrictions on June 21st) is a clear signal to employers that the furlough scheme is coming to an end, and it is time for businesses to either reopen fully or make people redundant if they feel that there is no long term future.

The transition period between July and September gives businesses time to adjust, and also gives employees who are going to be made redundant some time to find a new job.

Yesterday's budget has made it very clear that lockdown comes at a high economic cost, which simply cannot be continued in the long term.
 
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Baxenden Bank

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What will all these experts and rent-a-quote pundits do with their time come the summer? How will the media fill its space having had 12 months of virtually nothing but Corona?
Perhaps they could take the time to review all their 'mays', 'mights' and 'coulds' and compare them with what subsequently happened, in the process doing some deep self-analysis of their behaviour and its impact on the general population. Remember, there could be 4,000 deaths per day by winter. Is it winter yet?
 

317 forever

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So does that mean I will finally be able to do travel short distances for day trips once again from 8th of March? Or will I have to wait until the 29th of March?
I would hope March 8th. By then we can meet 1 friend outside. So we should surely be able to travel anywhere just for the day to meet them?
 

nlogax

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What will all these experts and rent-a-quote pundits do with their time come the summer? How will the media fill its space having had 12 months of virtually nothing but Corona?
Perhaps they could take the time to review all their 'mays', 'mights' and 'coulds' and compare them with what subsequently happened, in the process doing some deep self-analysis of their behaviour and its impact on the general population. Remember, there could be 4,000 deaths per day by winter. Is it winter yet?

They'll need something different on which to opine.. By the time this ends we'll have had over five years of Brexit and eighteen months of Covid dominating the headlines. There's still time for something new and shiny (or brown and smelly) to immediately divert the pundits' collective gazes.
 

317 forever

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Though Stage 2 activities (such as overnight stays being permitted in your household) are somewhat at odds with "minimise travel".

If somebody can travel to a wedding or effectively go on holiday, why can't I go for a train ride?
Similarly, it is a contradiction that "you can meet 1 friend outside" but "you must stay at home".

I think that is debateable. Outdoor leisure is permitted from 8 March. They have given examples of sitting on a bench drinking coffee and picnics (because Enid Blyton novels are really 21st Century documentaries and we picnic all the time) but last time the law did not prescribe which leisure activities were permitted, just outdoor activities in a public place, so if you are allowed to engage in outdoor leisure you must also be allowed to travel there. I think it will be like in the past where the guidelines will suggest you can do it from 29 March but the law will permit it from 8 March.
I am hoping for March 8th for the reasons you give. I just feel it may be wise to avoid likely busy stations such as London Paddington, Birmingham New Street or popular beach towns, as there may be police there to discourage/prevent crowds (and maybe even fine people).
 
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bramling

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The tale of the hare and the tortoise. The tortoise plods slowly on, while the hare rushes then breaks. In the classic version of the story, the tortoise crosses the finishing line first.

As I use the phrase, and to correct @yorkie’s interpretation of me, the tortoise is the government’s current approach, the hare is the advocacy of early relaxation of current measures. To elaborate slightly, we have seen relaxation ahead of scientific consensus before, only to find a significant impact leading to a reversal of progress. I’d prefer not to go that way, and secure gains even at a slower pace rather than hurry things along but find that momentum is lost.

The difference now being there’s vaccines in circulation. Even if a snag does arise with the vaccines, lockdown should not be a valid policy option. It’s an emergency measure only.
 

317 forever

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Instead of being a big bang return to normality where everything goes to how it was in 2019 coupled with a lot of pent up partying in June, I think life will gradually return to normal from March onwards as restrictions ease and people gradually regain their confidence. So May could be somewhat like what last summer was. July may resemble something between what life was like last summer and 2019.

By the autumn life may have returned to something similar to what it was like in 2019. However this assumes there will be few long term changes as a result of the pandemic. If the pandemic does result in long term changes to life then life will never quite resemble what it did in 2019.
Indeed, some changes such as hand sanitisers, perspex screens and a few people voluntarily wearing masks in cold weather in particular are probably here to stay.
 

RomeoCharlie71

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None of which seem inherently problematic.
Indeed. What I (and I would assume most others) don't want is forced restrictions or legislative interventions. If people want to wear a mask in the winter, that's fine by me, providing you don't force me to do the same thing for no apparent reason.

Perspex screens also offer an added layer of security for the employee behind them... providing they are of decent quality and not "shower curtains" as some establishments seem to be using.
 

317 forever

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I’ve stayed at a few Premier Inns in both the first lockdown and the current one, and I’ve had to provide my key worker status paperwork on each occasion to them before being allowed to check in.
I have booked a Premier Inn for well after May 17th but did so before the February roadmap was announced. The email booking stated that staff have the discretion to report a guest whose stay they suspect is not essential.
 

AlterEgo

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To the above very valid points I would add that the government, its advisors, and the public are being guided down the wrong path by the availability heuristic. This form of cognitive bias means people attach more weight or likelihood to events of which they can readily think of examples, such as vivid/shocking/recent/widely-covered events. The Wikipedia article gives the example that more people are killed by random parts falling of an aeroplane and hitting them than by shark attacks, but the vivid and shocking nature of shark attacks plus the tendency for them to be reported worldwide means they trigger the availability heuristic.

It is the same with COVID19. Because it’s been constantly available in all kinds of media for a year give or take, and because it has affected almost the entire country in some way or another, people overestimate the danger it poses. Stepping back and being rational for a while, it seems inevitable that the UK, and indeed the world, will need to learn to live with COVID19 and its impacts. Whilst every death due to COVID is sad, every measure to stop its spread has its side effects. Those effects, including hitting the economy and people’s physical and mental health, are not readily available or measurable, or at least not as available as the COVID19 statistics shoved in everyone’s faces daily.

I suspect if one poked about one would find that deaths with COVID19 in the under-50s are of the same order of magnitude as road deaths. Again, every death is sad – I am not minimising that. But road deaths have been normalized. Nobody suggesting banning cars would be taken seriously, and that is the same thought process we must go through with COVID19.

Finally, for the record, I am not advocating “throwing the doors open” right now. The vaccine rollout is progressing admirably well, and the current measures, or some of them, will help ensure its success by allowing more health staff to move from treating COVID19 to vaccinating against it. But the Prime Minister is absolutely right – each removal of restrictions going forward must be a one-way trip.
Very sensible. I recall having to make an Essential Journey (TM) by car in the April lockdown, and considered, carefully, that my risk of dying from COVID-19 was roughly the same as driving 200 miles each way on the motorway at 70mph.
 

317 forever

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I do hope this is right. The day the true unemployment numbers have to be announced will be a bad day for the government. If by then there are major changes e.g. Bojo riding into the sunset and Sunak as PM who ever steps into other roles can say what amounts to ' I was not in the hot seat during the Covid pandemic - don't blame me, I'm just picking up the pieces '.
A bit like John Major who took us into the ERM, was PM by the time we crashed out, and belatedly removed Norman Lamont from his job as Chancellor 8 months later.
 

35B

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The summer of 2021 will be nothing like 2020. Why? Because we have vaccine, and we already have over a third of the adult population have already been vaccinated. By the time everything reopens that will probably be closer to three quarters. So assuming that infections vs cases vs hospitalisations vs deaths between the years will be similar is going to be inaccurate. As has been said, it is now believed that the link between infections, hospitalisations and deaths has been broken.

If you are wanting data, you'd have to wait until well into 2022. And just for the record, most of us are not prepared to wait anything like that long, sorry.
I'm asking for data supporting the proposition that vaccination will reduce number and severity of cases, and as importantly giving real insight into the revised relationship between cases, hospitalisations, and deaths.

That is already emerging, and giving time to review the impact before taking the next step is not IMHO an excessive delay.
 

bramling

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I'm asking for data supporting the proposition that vaccination will reduce number and severity of cases, and as importantly giving real insight into the revised relationship between cases, hospitalisations, and deaths.

That is already emerging, and giving time to review the impact before taking the next step is not IMHO an excessive delay.

It is when there’s businesses and livelihoods, as well as the general health and well-being of the population, being negatively affected every day this drags on.

There’s already a lot of socialising going on, so we’re spending a lot of money to achieve what exactly?

It really is time to move on now.
 

brad465

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What will all these experts and rent-a-quote pundits do with their time come the summer? How will the media fill its space having had 12 months of virtually nothing but Corona?
Perhaps they could take the time to review all their 'mays', 'mights' and 'coulds' and compare them with what subsequently happened, in the process doing some deep self-analysis of their behaviour and its impact on the general population. Remember, there could be 4,000 deaths per day by winter. Is it winter yet?
They'll need something different on which to opine.. By the time this ends we'll have had over five years of Brexit and eighteen months of Covid dominating the headlines. There's still time for something new and shiny (or brown and smelly) to immediately divert the pundits' collective gazes.
They'll cook up their own things, or the Government will throw endless dead cat stories, to continue divide and rule on the population at a guess. Hopefully this time though it will be so blatant people catch onto what our poisonous oligarchy-run media has been doing to this country and rebel against it.
 

Nicholas Lewis

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From this weeks flu & covid survey. Southern England now firmly in Tier 1 territory. Also this is only upto 28/2 and since then case rates have continued to drop and there is now nowhere in England above 200 cases/100k over a 7 day period so everywhere in England could be Tier 3 now. I don't expect them to budge until they see impact of education restarting but if they see limited impact the CRG need to turn the screws.

1614893178575.png
 

Baxenden Bank

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Yet all day the Apple news app top story was along the lines of “some areas going up with cases”
Then don't get your news from a greengrocer. :lol:

Go direct to a reputable news organisation which retains a depth and breadth of coverage, rather than focusing on a very small number of trending stories.
 
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