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22nd February - Roadmap out of the pandemic, lifting of restrictions.

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brad465

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Universal acceptance from who? The public maybe, but I still don't see it from those who make the decisions. Next winter (and many after) it will still be the same underfunded mess that it was shown to be over the last 12 months.
From the public yes, although where it gets messy is what improvements need doing. There are several problems in our democracy not suitable for this discussion that explain why those in charge don't really do enough/anything about it.
 
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Jamesrob637

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I think 80-85% would be achievable for most of the big groups, at least they can forecast through it. But there are bound to be further cuts on marginal services.
Conscious we are probably going off topic a little though.

There was a thread "Buses and Coronavirus." Is it still open?

I agree that the only measures in places such as pubs should be hand sanitizer. And maybe a limit to who visits the toilets at quieter times.
 

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There was a thread "Buses and Coronavirus." Is it still open?
Yep still open, here you go:

 

brad465

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There's a delay in reported deaths, but until it does get reported the .GOV site says 0 deaths, something the site's delay message acknowledges isn't correct. However, it hasn't stopped the BBC's live feed thinking this is the case:



1615133688294.png

I suppose as a side note the anti-lockdown protests in Prague shown on this feed is evidence of resentment to restrictions growing/continuing.

EDIT: that message has now been cleared and replaced with the cases only feed report.
 
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Richard Scott

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We can also afford lockdowns but not a pay rise for nurses. :'(
Well it's chickens coming home to roost now, the public were calling out for lockdowns at the time, they wanted furloughs, wanted the government to be cautious but didn't seem to stop to think that at some point this would need paying for. I also work in public sector and could see the no pay rise coming months ago. Why is everyone so surprised now?
 

brad465

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At the moment low inflation won't help make the case for pay rises, and those who have defended the 1% value for nurses are using this along with "be lucky you have a job", which makes sense.

However, if in the rest of 2021 and next year the market behaviour in recent days predicting increasing inflation comes to fruition, many of those in work, including the public sector, will be hoping for and demanding pay rises higher than that, especially if above the Bank of England's 2% target. This will also risk creating a huge debt crisis (not helped by central banks and Governments refusing to accept capitalism is dead by printing money to keep it alive), as public debt becomes unserviceable if the BoE is forced to push rates up to curb high inflation.
 

Nicholas Lewis

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I suspect most pubs cannot operate profitably if everyone has to be seated and all seats are a metre apart.
With places around here operating bookings only from 12th April you are finding that every day of the week is filling up rather than Thu - Sat night so at least initially they may get closer to average income for time of year. However, I suspect it will drop off after a few weeks as people take the opportunity to get out.
 

Freightmaster

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I also work in public sector and could see the no pay rise coming months ago. Why is everyone so surprised now?
I reckon a lot of public sector workers think the Government can pay for all the lockdown measures
just by "taxing the rich more" - a deadly combination of naïvety and jealousy!





MARK
 

Gadget88

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So once they vaccinate x number of people what is the risk of catching it unvaccinated? Would social distancing have to continue for unvaccinated any thoughts?

Interesting how she suggests majority won’t need an annual booster ..
 

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Bald Rick

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I also work in public sector and could see the no pay rise coming months ago. Why is everyone so surprised now?

Everyone isn’t surprised. A small minority are, and they are making the noise. A mass of people saying “why is everyone surprised about this” doesn’t make a good headline!
 

bramling

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At the moment low inflation won't help make the case for pay rises, and those who have defended the 1% value for nurses are using this along with "be lucky you have a job", which makes sense.

However, if in the rest of 2021 and next year the market behaviour in recent days predicting increasing inflation comes to fruition, many of those in work, including the public sector, will be hoping for and demanding pay rises higher than that, especially if above the Bank of England's 2% target. This will also risk creating a huge debt crisis (not helped by central banks and Governments refusing to accept capitalism is dead by printing money to keep it alive), as public debt becomes unserviceable if the BoE is forced to push rates up to curb high inflation.

I continue to think that we have a serious problem brewing. Inflation seems all but inevitable, yet a significant proportion of society seems to only work on the basis of debt. Raising interest rates to control inflation would be a serious problem. But high inflation is equally problematic.

I reckon a lot of public sector workers think the Government can pay for all the lockdown measures
just by "taxing the rich more" - a deadly combination of naïvety and jealousy!





MARK

I likewise reckon a lot of people think this is all over when the pubs re-open. It isn't; we're already seeing some of the longer term consequences starting to be felt, and there's plenty more where that came from.
 
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Richard Scott

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I continue to think that we have a serious problem brewing. Inflation seems all but inevitable, yet a significant proportion of society seems to only work on the basis of debt. Raising interest rates to control inflation would be a serious problem. But high inflation is equally problematic.
Why do you think inflation is inevitable? I'm not going to claim to be well read in economics so it's a genuine question as would like to understand more about it. I get the reason for raising interest rates if inflation gets too high and why it's also problematic.
 

brad465

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Why do you think inflation is inevitable? I'm not going to claim to be well read in economics so it's a genuine question as would like to understand more about it. I get the reason for raising interest rates if inflation gets too high and why it's also problematic.
Restrictions easing will create pent-up demand, directly leading to inflation increasing, and all the stimulus through QE and, in the case of the US, the $1.9tn aid package about to cleared through Congress and Biden's desk, will encourage spending on top. From our perspective, dare I bring up that Brexit supply chain disruption will become more apparent as less restrictions mean more activity and demand for imported supplies, which from July will get the added setback of import checks being applied. It's also possible the Bank of England hasn't finished its QE programme yet, so more stimulus maybe being applied on top of pent-up demand being unleashed.
 

Jamesrob637

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There's a delay in reported deaths, but until it does get reported the .GOV site says 0 deaths, something the site's delay message acknowledges isn't correct. However, it hasn't stopped the BBC's live feed thinking this is the case:



View attachment 92060

I suppose as a side note the anti-lockdown protests in Prague shown on this feed is evidence of resentment to restrictions growing/continuing.

EDIT: that message has now been cleared and replaced with the cases only feed report.

It was 82 today. we're in double digits again!! Albeit on a weekend.
 

bramling

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Why do you think inflation is inevitable? I'm not going to claim to be well read in economics so it's a genuine question as would like to understand more about it. I get the reason for raising interest rates if inflation gets too high and why it's also problematic.

If we work on the basis that changes in price can be influenced by changes in demand, changes in supply or external factors, looking at each of those in turn I think there's going to be the right conditions for prices to rise. Firstly, an increase in demand when lockdown eases - look no further than my hotel bookings for this summer for an example of that in action! Then we have the legacy of reductions in supply as a result of restrictions themselves (eg businesses unable to operate at full production due to social distancing / furloughing of staff in response to falls in demand) or the consequences of restrictions (i.e. businesses which have already or will have ceased trading). Then there's increased costs for businesses, again as a result of social distancing and restrictions. I suspect there will also be businesses who will need to increase prices simply in order to make ends meet after having endured a year of costs but received reduced, little or even no revenue. Add in quantitative easing on top of that.

I simply think all the conditions will meet at the same time. Even if this only applies for a relatively short time, it could be enough to cause a spiral.
 
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Nicholas Lewis

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It was 82 today. we're in double digits again!! Albeit on a weekend.
Also Englands hospital admissions are at 487 (5/3 update) which is lowest since 5/10/20 and even more extraordinary is that total hospitalised is continuing to fall at c30% / week and is not following exponential decay. So by the end of March and the review date will be around 3k but guess that will still be too high for Hancock and the scientists but surely if cases hasn't moved much from the return of education the CRG really need to up the ante and opposition well Labour really need to consider there position.
 

35B

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Why do you think inflation is inevitable? I'm not going to claim to be well read in economics so it's a genuine question as would like to understand more about it. I get the reason for raising interest rates if inflation gets too high and why it's also problematic.
@brad465 and @bramling have answered from a conservative, relatively monetarist, perspective. I largely agree with their analysis, but think they discount the constraints of under and unemployment at a macroeconomic level on firms ability to raise prices.

At a theoretical level, adherents of “Modern Monetary Theory” argue that these are not inflationary pressures, and that the debt being of government to government in a fiat currency means that the risk of inflation can be discounted. Their arguments are of interest, especially given the limited inflationary impact of QE since 2008.
 

david1212

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There was a past thread on other viruses' behaviour impacted by Covid but is long locked, but there maybe some relevance here: Dr Susan Hopkins says we must prepare for a 'hard winter' of flu, citing reduced immunity to them given their almost non-existence this year:


While it's not certain I can certainly see how this is possible, and should really throw in question whether the long term pain of lockdowns is not just limited to economic damage and ignoring things like mental health and cancer, where here other viruses that Covid shut out "learn" to be more infectious to be in with a fighting chance once again.

Regardless of what if any restrictions are necessary though, I'm sure there is almost universal acceptance our health service must be ramped up as quickly as possible to cope, as well as issuing as many flu vaccines (and maybe covid boosters at the same time) as possible. I know staff take a long time to train, but that doesn't mean we shouldn't do it, and the last year should have seen more staff complete education already ongoing, with more in the following year. We need to make sure more training capacity exists and pay and conditions are good enough to retain existing staff too.

Two points here.

With so little social interaction for almost 12 months and still ongoing for a while plus greater emphasis on cleanliness while Dr Susan Hopkins highlighted the potential for reduced immunity to 'flu the same can be applied to many common ailments. The difference perhaps is most will result in very few hospital admissions.

The planning behind the scenes does need to start now but equally there is no need to be so open about it. Rather people need to be able to look forward to the reduced restrictions of the current roadmap and the summer not already get depressed about might happen next winter.
 

bramling

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@brad465 and @bramling have answered from a conservative, relatively monetarist, perspective. I largely agree with their analysis, but think they discount the constraints of under and unemployment at a macroeconomic level on firms ability to raise prices.

At a theoretical level, adherents of “Modern Monetary Theory” argue that these are not inflationary pressures, and that the debt being of government to government in a fiat currency means that the risk of inflation can be discounted. Their arguments are of interest, especially given the limited inflationary impact of QE since 2008.

I'm not sure unemployment is going to be the central issue. We haven't thusfar seen a mass-drop-off-a-cliff in terms of job losses, just a gradual drip-drip-drip of business failures -- to be fair at least some of which were possibly already dodgy (something like Debenhams being the classic example, Ian Allan Bookshop another).

I guess time will tell, however I can't see how we're going to avoid a situation where firms knock up prices in order to offset losses and added costs from the last year, which will almost certainly combine with a period where pent-up demand exists. How long this situation exists for will perhaps be the determining question.
 

Bantamzen

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Well it's chickens coming home to roost now, the public were calling out for lockdowns at the time, they wanted furloughs, wanted the government to be cautious but didn't seem to stop to think that at some point this would need paying for. I also work in public sector and could see the no pay rise coming months ago. Why is everyone so surprised now?
Exactly, I had a conversation with some of my colleagues back in the summer when restrictions were first eased. They were convinced that lockdowns / furloughs should continue, and that the money would just be found somewhere. I on the other hand was not so optimistic, and predicted deep cuts & pay freezes for the public sector including the NHS.
 

DelayRepay

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Exactly, I had a conversation with some of my colleagues back in the summer when restrictions were first eased. They were convinced that lockdowns / furloughs should continue, and that the money would just be found somewhere. I on the other hand was not so optimistic, and predicted deep cuts & pay freezes for the public sector including the NHS.
It's the same in the private sector - at least in my company.

Lockdown for us brought a massive increase in costs, and at the same time a drop in income. We made a profit last year but only about 20% of the profit we made the year before. Therefore, we receive no pay rise, we are receiving a very small bonus, but heavily weighted to the lowest paid staff (fairly, I think). Redundancies are on the cards. People are unhappy about this, understandably, but it's the consequence of what's happened over the last 12 months.

On the subject of the nurses - how much would be enough? I suspect if they were being offered a 10% pay rise, it would still not be enough.
 

yorksrob

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Two points here.

With so little social interaction for almost 12 months and still ongoing for a while plus greater emphasis on cleanliness while Dr Susan Hopkins highlighted the potential for reduced immunity to 'flu the same can be applied to many common ailments. The difference perhaps is most will result in very few hospital admissions.

The planning behind the scenes does need to start now but equally there is no need to be so open about it. Rather people need to be able to look forward to the reduced restrictions of the current roadmap and the summer not already get depressed about might happen next winter.

I too read the article, and I feel that the emphasis really needs to be on ensuring that the high risk groups get the flu jab, rather than another round of (albeit should be less onerous than now) restrictions.

On the subject of the nurses - how much would be enough? I suspect if they were being offered a 10% pay rise, it would still not be enough.

I don't know what wage rates in the nursing sector are like generally, but I do wonder whether in some cases the money would be better spent on employing more of them so that they have can have shorter working hours/more leave. I'd be interested to hear some medical professionals opinions on whether pay or work/life balance are bigger issues for them.
 

35B

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I'm not sure unemployment is going to be the central issue. We haven't thusfar seen a mass-drop-off-a-cliff in terms of job losses, just a gradual drip-drip-drip of business failures -- to be fair at least some of which were possibly already dodgy (something like Debenhams being the classic example, Ian Allan Bookshop another).

I guess time will tell, however I can't see how we're going to avoid a situation where firms knock up prices in order to offset losses and added costs from the last year, which will almost certainly combine with a period where pent-up demand exists. How long this situation exists for will perhaps be the determining question.
Firms may try to push prices up, but this monetarist questions how far their target markets will be willing or able to bear such increased prices. With increased unemployment and, as importantly, underemployment, I think there will be mitigation against inflationary pressures.

The nature of the lockdowns has been more of a lost year for the businesses that have been affected rather than wholesale destruction of capacity. Tenanted businesses have often been able to push back against rent, so have seen the full impact of being unable to trade heavily mitigated. I therefore expect businesses to seek to regain their feet rather than recoup lost revenue from 2020 - though there will always be exceptions!

On the subject of the nurses - how much would be enough? I suspect if they were being offered a 10% pay rise, it would still not be enough.
As one of the unions has asked for 12.5%, and there have been placards demanding 15%, you may have your answer.

As importantly, the headline 1% doesn’t actually reflect what most individuals will get because of the structure of NHS pay scales. It will affect those at the top of their particular pay spine, but the more or less automatic progression through those spines means that most staff will actually get more - Robert Colville (director of the CPS) has written in the Times last weekend that the average will be 2.7%.
 

initiation

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As importantly, the headline 1% doesn’t actually reflect what most individuals will get because of the structure of NHS pay scales. It will affect those at the top of their particular pay spine, but the more or less automatic progression through those spines means that most staff will actually get more - Robert Colville (director of the CPS) has written in the Times last weekend that the average will be 2.7%.

Yes this never gets raised when comparing figures. I wonder how many private sector companies have automatic pay rises based on years of service? The only vague comparison I know is where some companies offer an extra day leave after 5-10 years.

I like the suggestion that those leading government have their pay linked to GDP. Your policies cause economic growth of 3% - your pay climbs 3%. You enact a lockdown which causes a 10% drop in GDP - your pay drops 10%.

It is a major problem that those politicians and academics/scientists involved in the decision making never feel the direct impacts. They are in public funded jobs, with nice pensions. They are generally middle aged or older so more likely to have nice houses, a garden and probably a family.
 

yorksrob

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Yes this never gets raised when comparing figures. I wonder how many private sector companies have automatic pay rises based on years of service? The only vague comparison I know is where some companies offer an extra day leave after 5-10 years.

I like the suggestion that those leading government have their pay linked to GDP. Your policies cause economic growth of 3% - your pay climbs 3%. You enact a lockdown which causes a 10% drop in GDP - your pay drops 10%.

It is a major problem that those politicians and academics/scientists involved in the decision making never feel the direct impacts. They are in public funded jobs, with nice pensions. They are generally middle aged or older so more likely to have nice houses, a garden and probably a family.

I think there's an argument that politicians salaries should be linked to the overall public sector pay settlement. It would also remove the awkwardness of trying to keep their salaries in line with inflation due to "mp's vote themselves a payrise" type headlines.

Their salaries should be linked to the less high profile part of the public sectors pay settlement (e.g. local councils) rather than teachers/health workers etc.
 

VauxhallandI

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Yes this never gets raised when comparing figures. I wonder how many private sector companies have automatic pay rises based on years of service? The only vague comparison I know is where some companies offer an extra day leave after 5-10 years.

I like the suggestion that those leading government have their pay linked to GDP. Your policies cause economic growth of 3% - your pay climbs 3%. You enact a lockdown which causes a 10% drop in GDP - your pay drops 10%.

It is a major problem that those politicians and academics/scientists involved in the decision making never feel the direct impacts. They are in public funded jobs, with nice pensions. They are generally middle aged or older so more likely to have nice houses, a garden and probably a family.
I don't thinks its fair to compare private and public sector and here lies a regular problem

In the public sector you generally get a lower pay and tis was tradionally offset by a decent pension.

What people don't realise is that these non immediate and soft benefits have been eroded over the years.

The Public Sector don't get to job hop to higher pay at another firm even though their experience or skills haven't changed, there are no big bonuses on offer, no share schemes and no cars etc.
 

Bald Rick

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I think there's an argument that politicians salaries should be linked to the overall public sector pay settlement. It would also remove the awkwardness of trying to keep their salaries in line with inflation due to "mp's vote themselves a payrise" type headlines.

Agreed.
 

DustyBin

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The Public Sector don't get to job hop to higher pay at another firm even though their experience or skills haven't changed, there are no big bonuses on offer, no share schemes and no cars etc.

Genuine question, as somebody who's GF has jumped between the public and private sector a couple of times, what's stopping them? I realise some equivalent roles will be scarce to non-existant in the private sector, but not all?
 

birchesgreen

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Genuine question, as somebody who's GF has jumped between the public and private sector a couple of times, what's stopping them? I realise some equivalent roles will be scarce to non-existant in the private sector, but not all?
There are benefits of working in the public sector, more holidays, better (perceived anyway) job security, grades and progression mean pay rises are at least predictable (compared to the private sector companies I've worked for anyway which have all been small, large companies will probably be different).

Of course some people have a sense of service, some will feel inertia, in other words there are many reasons.
 
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