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22nd February - Roadmap out of the pandemic, lifting of restrictions.

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Nicholas Lewis

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But that wouldn't be the choice. By this time next month, we will have vaccinated a huge number of people, who would have built up robust immunity by 17th May, therefore even if some people did come back positive, it would not cause a problem. You could also mitigate against any risk by requiring unvaccinated people to take tests and/or stay at home for 10 days upon arrival back in the UK.
In principle im in agreement but the risk here is that some new variant of concern comes up and they over react with measures again just after we've got our freedoms back. The primary goal has to be getting our freedoms back in the UK with no easy way to re-impose them without full parliamentary approval so it wouldn't be irrational currently to have international travel restricted to underpin that.

The secondary goals would be international travel based on some criteria as well as inbound tourism which the taskforce is reporting back on 12th April.
 
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Cdd89

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I’m becoming convinced that this “cautious unlocking” timetable is actually causing more direct Covid deaths than a faster one would be. (I’ve long been convinced it’s causing more indirect deaths, as has been discussed at length).

It’s patently obvious that there is now no respect for restrictions anymore; and the few who are respecting them would voluntarily exclude themselves from shops, bars, restaurants, gatherings, etc anyway.

What’s safer: gathering in someone’s house (with the windows/curtains shut and staying out of the garden so you don’t get in trouble), or meeting in a well ventilated cafe or restaurant with a multitude of controls in place and a natural time limit?

What’s safer: allowing hotels to open with precautions, or forcing people to stay overnight at friends’ houses where they are unlikely to get caught?

What’s safer: unlocking at a speed in line with public sentiment, or being behind that so very large groups of people feel the need to protest the ongoing restrictions?

It’s easy to appeal to “caution” — and if it were just waiting a few more weeks, that’s fine by me, I’m patient — but I am not convinced it’s “cautious” at all. Even if your only concern is Covid.

Humans are social — lockdown tolerance is limited. Banning stuff doesn't change that, it just pushes people to less safe settings. It’s the same reason why abstinence-only sex education inevitably leads to worse outcomes. And as with abstinence, proponents of the “cautious” approach want to stick their head in the sand and pretend these gatherings aren’t happening, when in reality they’re widespread and happening daily.
 

philosopher

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It’s also disingenuous to suggest that the U.K. (And especially London) can survive without international tourism. Using my preferred metric (the Tower Bridge quotient), I can walk across it any day of the week without having tourists shoving cameras in my face. While this is a delightful perk, it demonstrates that domestic tourism is likely not going to be sufficient to keep all the industries that rely on it turning.

With such a massive cost to stopping inbound tourism, the counter argument needs to be a bit stronger than “some people might have flu like symptoms for a couple of days”.
If they are going to heavily restrict international travel this year, then there should be a campaign to encourage UK tourists to visit UK cities. This may ease pressure on coastal resorts and pretty parts of the countryside while helping those businesses in places like London, Edinburgh, Bath, etc that depend on international tourists.
 

MrKyleBuses

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It can't go on once everyone has been vaccinated with both does as what would be the point?
I think this is all just scaremongering anyway, the advisers are not the ones in charge anyway.
 

initiation

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If they are going to heavily restrict international travel this year, then there should be a campaign to encourage UK tourists to visit UK cities. This may ease pressure on coastal resorts and pretty parts of the countryside while helping those businesses in places like London, Edinburgh, Bath, etc that depend on international tourists.
I was discussing the other day with my OH that I would quote like to spend a long weekend in London later this year doing various attractions/museums etc... As they will be much less busier than normal. Unfortunately I won't be going if mask mandates are still enforced.
 

Nicholas Lewis

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I’m becoming convinced that this “cautious unlocking” timetable is actually causing more direct Covid deaths than a faster one would be. (I’ve long been convinced it’s causing more indirect deaths, as has been discussed at length).

It’s patently obvious that there is now no respect for restrictions anymore; and the few who are respecting them would voluntarily exclude themselves from shops, bars, restaurants, gatherings, etc anyway.

What’s safer: gathering in someone’s house (with the windows/curtains shut and staying out of the garden so you don’t get in trouble), or meeting in a well ventilated cafe or restaurant with a multitude of controls in place and a natural time limit?

What’s safer: allowing hotels to open with precautions, or forcing people to stay overnight at friends’ houses where they are unlikely to get caught?

What’s safer: unlocking at a speed in line with public sentiment, or being behind that so very large groups of people feel the need to protest the ongoing restrictions?

It’s easy to appeal to “caution” — and if it were just waiting a few more weeks, that’s fine by me, I’m patient — but I am not convinced it’s “cautious” at all. Even if your only concern is Covid.

Humans are social — lockdown tolerance is limited. Banning stuff doesn't change that, it just pushes people to less safe settings. It’s the same reason why abstinence-only sex education inevitably leads to worse outcomes. And as with abstinence, proponents of the “cautious” approach want to stick their head in the sand and pretend these gatherings aren’t happening, when in reality they’re widespread and happening daily.
Behaviourally you are right this is likely outcome the longer it goes on and hospitality have done more than anyone to make this point but it all falls on deaf ears. Sacha Lord was supposed to be taking something to the high court to force the governments hand over why all hospitality isn't opened on 12th April but not sure its got very far yet The Public Administration and Constitutional Affairs Committee report last week also said there was no compelling evidence being provided by the govt and that committee is dominated by Tories. My view is govt and advisers are keeping the pressure on to maximise impact of lockdown and we will see some movement once its clear step 1 hasn't had the impact the stupid modellers forecast.
 

Richard Scott

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If they are going to heavily restrict international travel this year, then there should be a campaign to encourage UK tourists to visit UK cities. This may ease pressure on coastal resorts and pretty parts of the countryside while helping those businesses in places like London, Edinburgh, Bath, etc that depend on international tourists.
They can't expect people to go to places they don't want to just because it's convenient for the politicians. I've been to all of those cities do why do I need to go again? Non starter I'm afraid.
 

ChrisC

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The key is to go against the crowd. There will be plenty of accommodation if you fancy a city break in Sheffield or some obscure market town in the Midlands. This is what I plan to do if international travel is definitely off (especially sheffield, I think it's the only major northern city I haven't been to yet). There are gems to be found.

The coastline, Cornwall, national parks, holiday parks, and capital cities will indeed be difficult though.
That’s exactly what I am going to do. I’ve got a week booked in Cornwall in October, but it’s cancellable, and if things are still looking overcrowded down there I won’t go.

From the end of May I’m intending going a way for a few days at least once each month. It will be inland areas away from the main tourist locations. There’s some great towns and villages to explore in many parts of the U.K. which will not be busy and accommodation will be available at low prices. Sheffield is not a bad idea. There is some fantastic countryside in Yorkshire outside of the Dales and the North Yorkshire Moors National Parks.
 
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DB

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I'm starting to wonder if we're being governed by robots, who have no concept of human affection/emotion and thus never need to hug anybody else or meet others to start a life and breed, which would all be impossible if the above lasts.
Not only that, they also seem to have no concept of the economic realities - i.e. many businesses cannot operate (either at all, or profitably) with these restrictions in place. This includes whole swathes of the economy (events, conferences, sporting matches, nightclubs, many pubs, etc)

The likes of Mary Ramsey are living in Cloud Cuckoo Land if she thinks we'll have to keep wearing face coverings and socially distance(god I absolutely DETEST that phrase!!) for several years yet. She is not in the government, and the government doesn't have to do what she says. There's no way we can keep socially distancing and face mask wearing for several more months yet, let alone several more years!! All this dragging on for a year so far has done enough damage to businesses and people's lives as it is. A few more months now and they'll have to finally let go of this nonsense. We were told by certain members of the cabinet "These vaccines are our way out of all these restrictions, and the road back to normal life.".

It's time the government clamped down on this and imposed a rule that its advisors and staff are not allowed to go mouthing off to the media like this.

And agree with you about the phrase 'socially distance' - as well as being irritating, it's also nonsense on its own terms as what those parroting it actually mean is 'physical distance'.
 

Horizon22

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There are a multitude of threads this could go into, with an alarming belief by the head of immunisation at PHE thinking we've got used to restrictions and thus they can last for years:




I'm starting to wonder if we're being governed by robots, who have no concept of human affection/emotion and thus never need to hug anybody else or meet others to start a life and breed, which would all be impossible if the above lasts.

Well the key word in the article is 'could'. The majority (or a sizeable minority) might accept some very very "lower-level restrictions" - hand sanitising stations are generally good hygiene anyway and a bit of space in public places wouldn't be amiss! - but I think that it is absoultely it. And I doubt it would be enforceable anyway so its overally unlikely. Not to mention it would hurt public transport with the "social distancing" rhetoric still ringing throughout the rest of the year. Enough people already think they're somehow going to die by taking a train.
 

yorksrob

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I do think that voters need to make sure that the main parties "get the message" about long term restrictions at the local elections.
 

duncanp

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I can't see social distancing and masks staying beyond the point when the majority here have been offered the vaccine.

Nevertheless, until SAGE has its wings clipped, I can see rent-a-quote scientists popping up with stuff like this on a regular basis.

Social distancing cannot last beyond this summer, because many venues (eg. pubs, restaurants, theatres, football clubs, conference & events industry) will find it impossible to operate with restrictions in place.

Many of these places are racking up huge losses, using up reserves and taking out loans in the hope that from July most restrictions will be lifted and they will be able to operate profitably. If restrictions are not lifted, then many places will simply go out of business, and there will be a large increase in unemployment. Not to mention mental health issues and an increase in suicides.

This is the problem with SAGE - they only look at things from an epidemiological point of view, and they need to have their "wings clipped", or at least given a brief which tells them to consider the economy and mental health when recommending measures.
 

mawallace

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I can see there will be a problem with this politically.

the Roadmap clearly says "all restrictions lifted' and nightlcubs open from the end of June - most people have read that this means that the masks and SD will be gone by the end of June.

It's only if you read the 90 plus document you see that they will have a review by the end of June to see if they can lift the 1 m plus rule - (which is still mis understood) and masks.

But if they keep them how will nightclubs , as an example, function?

Having said that I am going to the Crucible to take part in the Government pilot - full details to be announced but it will involve a lower capacity, masks, and a COVID test. Now, if this is the pilot, in May, I can see that this will be used as the basis for when the restrictions are withdrawn at the end of June.

So, how will Bo JO reconcile all of this... I'd suggest by letting the likes of the 'experts' appearing now softening us up - he can then say - I've listened to the experts, better to be cautious etc etc.
 

yorksrob

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The Government needs to strongly rebuke Dr Ramsay and give a detailed explanation of why long term restrictions won't be possible.

However, I suspect that they're too gutless.
 
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yorkie

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Mary Ramsay needs to sod off; I can't be bothered to type up a proper response to her inane her ramblings. She is clearly very out of touch.
 

Class 33

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I can see there will be a problem with this politically.

the Roadmap clearly says "all restrictions lifted' and nightlcubs open from the end of June - most people have read that this means that the masks and SD will be gone by the end of June.

It's only if you read the 90 plus document you see that they will have a review by the end of June to see if they can lift the 1 m plus rule - (which is still mis understood) and masks.

But if they keep them how will nightclubs , as an example, function?

Having said that I am going to the Crucible to take part in the Government pilot - full details to be announced but it will involve a lower capacity, masks, and a COVID test. Now, if this is the pilot, in May, I can see that this will be used as the basis for when the restrictions are withdrawn at the end of June.

So, how will Bo JO reconcile all of this... I'd suggest by letting the likes of the 'experts' appearing now softening us up - he can then say - I've listened to the experts, better to be cautious etc etc.

The social distancing review is on 17th May. By then hospital numbers should be fairly low(less than 1,000 in hospitals surely) , and daily deaths should be no more than single digits. And millions more will be vaccinated. Absolutely no justification to keep this social distancing nonsense going any longer than 21st June at the very latest. But I expect if Whitty and Vallance are involved in that review meeting, they may well come up with some claptrap to say it should continue. If so, I hope Johnson tells them where to go.

The likes of nightclubs, theatres, cinemas, hostels, spas, coach holiday operators, etc, etc won't be able to survive financially if social distancing still drags on past June.

21st June, high time for the country to get back to normal. Good riddance to face mask wearing, social distancing, one way systems, black and yellow hazzard tapes all over the place, PA systems keep repeatedly saying to ensure face masks are worn and socially distance, etc. Good riddance to the lot of it!
 

Jamesrob637

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The social distancing review is on 17th May. By then hospital numbers should be fairly low(less than 1,000 in hospitals surely) , and daily deaths should be no more than single digits. And millions more will be vaccinated. Absolutely no justification to keep this social distancing nonsense going any longer than 21st June at the very latest. But I expect if Whitty and Vallance are involved in that review meeting, they may well come up with some claptrap to say it should continue. If so, I hope Johnson tells them where to go.

The likes of nightclubs, theatres, cinemas, hostels, spas, coach holiday operators, etc, etc won't be able to survive financially if social distancing still drags on past June.

21st June, high time for the country to get back to normal. Good riddance to face mask wearing, social distancing, one way systems, black and yellow hazzard tapes all over the place, PA systems keep repeatedly saying to ensure face masks are worn and socially distance, etc. Good riddance to the lot of it!

Your namesake in deaths today plus hospitalizations are still falling. The seven-day rolling average stands at 91. There could be single-digit figures over Easter: possibly Easter Tuesday as it's effectively a second Sunday for statistical information.
 

Nicholas Lewis

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Your namesake in deaths today plus hospitalizations are still falling. The seven-day rolling average stands at 91. There could be single-digit figures over Easter: possibly Easter Tuesday as it's effectively a second Sunday for statistical information.
Add on the incredible 752308 people receiving 1st dose yesterday giving a total of 27.6m with some level of protection this lot are losing the plot over the whole purpose of the vaccination programme they launched. However, i was pleased that both the LBC presenters who are heard this afternoon were both pushing the narrative that the regulations and restrictions need to be ended as planned otherwise what has been the point. What I still hope is actually happening here is ministers and advisers are seeking to keep the lid on current behaviours right up to first review so we depress the metrics down to as low level as possible . That is a reasonable approach to my mind as moving forward is the imperative here.
 

Class 33

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Mary Ramsay needs to sod off; I can't be bothered to type up a proper response to her inane her ramblings. She is clearly very out of touch.

Indeed. Sick to the teeth of people like her saying such things as "We need tougher restrictions", "Social distancing and face mask wearing must continue for several years" or whatever. She is indeed clearly out of touch with the problems all these restrictions has caused and will continue to cause if all these restrictions continue for much longer.

This snippet of news from Sky News. I don't know why they keep giving articles like this the space on their website!

Mask-wearing and social distancing could last 'years', says expert

We could be wearing face coverings and keeping two metres from others for years to come, according to a Public Health England expert.

Despite the success of the vaccine rollout, Dr Mary Ramsay said these measures could go on for "quite a long period of time".

"People have got used to those lower-level restrictions now, people can live with them and the economy can still go on with those less severe restrictions in place," she told The Andrew Marr Show.

"Certainly for a few years, at least until other parts of the world are as well vaccinated as we are, and the numbers have come down everywhere, that's when we may be able to go from very gradually back to a more normal situation."

Wearing face coverings and keeping 2 metres apart for years to come! In your dreams Mary Ramsey, in your dreams!!! This is just not going to happen in the real world, due to the severe damage to the economy, people's livelihoods and mental health it would cause. Indeed enough damage has been done already because of all this over the top nonsense!

Can't believe she says that people can live with these lower-level restrictions for years to come and the economy can still go on with these less severe restrictions in place! She's just completely out of touch! She is NO expert. People like her are a darn nuisance.
 

Richard Scott

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Indeed. Sick to the teeth of people like her saying such things as "We need tougher restrictions", "Social distancing and face mask wearing must continue for several years" or whatever. She is indeed clearly out of touch with the problems all these restrictions has caused and will continue to cause if all these restrictions continue for much longer.

This snippet of news from Sky News. I don't know why they keep giving articles like this the space on their website!



Wearing face coverings and keeping 2 metres apart for years to come! In your dreams Mary Ramsey, in your dreams!!! This is just not going to happen in the real world, due to the severe damage to the economy, people's livelihoods and mental health it would cause. Indeed enough damage has been done already because of all this over the top nonsense!

Can't believe she says that people can live with these lower-level restrictions and the economy can still go on with these less severe restrictions in place! She's just completely out of touch! She is NO expert. People like her are a darn nuisance.
I actually doubt their intelligence as they talk such nonsense and are so out of touch. I cannot believe a supposedly intelligent person would spout such rubbish. Unless of course it's calculated exposure for their 15 minutes of fame!
 

kez19

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Indeed. Sick to the teeth of people like her saying such things as "We need tougher restrictions", "Social distancing and face mask wearing must continue for several years" or whatever. She is indeed clearly out of touch with the problems all these restrictions has caused and will continue to cause if all these restrictions continue for much longer.

This snippet of news from Sky News. I don't know why they keep giving articles like this the space on their website!


Still though it seems news has fast become nothing more than clickbait - tick tock and all that


Wearing face coverings and keeping 2 metres apart for years to come! In your dreams Mary Ramsey, in your dreams!!! This is just not going to happen in the real world, due to the severe damage to the economy, people's livelihoods and mental health it would cause. Indeed enough damage has been done already because of all this over the top nonsense!

Can't believe she says that people can live with these lower-level restrictions and the economy can still go on with these less severe restrictions in place! She's just completely out of touch! She is NO expert. People like her are a darn nuisance.


She probably has a big house/garden and has a job that keeps her money rolling in or a better pension.
 

Eyersey468

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Indeed. Sick to the teeth of people like her saying such things as "We need tougher restrictions", "Social distancing and face mask wearing must continue for several years" or whatever. She is indeed clearly out of touch with the problems all these restrictions has caused and will continue to cause if all these restrictions continue for much longer.

This snippet of news from Sky News. I don't know why they keep giving articles like this the space on their website!



Wearing face coverings and keeping 2 metres apart for years to come! In your dreams Mary Ramsey, in your dreams!!! This is just not going to happen in the real world, due to the severe damage to the economy, people's livelihoods and mental health it would cause. Indeed enough damage has been done already because of all this over the top nonsense!

Can't believe she says that people can live with these lower-level restrictions for years to come and the economy can still go on with these less severe restrictions in place! She's just completely out of touch! She is NO expert. People like her are a darn nuisance.
I agree 100%. Is she going to fund the losses that businesses will incur due to this out of her own personal pocket? No? Though not somehow.
 

Jamesrob637

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Add on the incredible 752308 people receiving 1st dose yesterday giving a total of 27.6m with some level of protection this lot are losing the plot over the whole purpose of the vaccination programme they launched. However, i was pleased that both the LBC presenters who are heard this afternoon were both pushing the narrative that the regulations and restrictions need to be ended as planned otherwise what has been the point. What I still hope is actually happening here is ministers and advisers are seeking to keep the lid on current behaviours right up to first review so we depress the metrics down to as low level as possible . That is a reasonable approach to my mind as moving forward is the imperative here.

Here are some seven-day moving averages for June 2020, comparable to where we are now:

16th of June - 93
17th of June - 86
18th of June - 84
19th of June - 78
20th of June - 73

These dates were after non-essential retail had reopened, but before pubs had reopened (remember the pubs went straight from 'shut' to 'you can serve whatever you like' from the 4th of July - many did not actually reopen on this date.)
 

AlterEgo

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Mary Ramsay needs to sod off; I can't be bothered to type up a proper response to her inane her ramblings. She is clearly very out of touch.
A very polite way of saying it, “sod off”. I practically shouted at my phone when I read it.
 

Jamiescott1

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I was discussing the other day with my OH that I would quote like to spend a long weekend in London later this year doing various attractions/museums etc... As they will be much less busier than normal. Unfortunately I won't be going if mask mandates are still enforced.
I live in a commuter town and work in London. We did some of the museums the weekend before lockdown was imposed last march. Virtually had the whole place to ourselves.
 

Jamesrob637

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I live in a commuter town and work in London. We did some of the museums the weekend before lockdown was imposed last march. Virtually had the whole place to ourselves.

14th and 15th places were virtually deserted. The previous weekend was quite a contrast. Still down on January and February but way busier.
 

david1212

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Sadly I agree with you. I think social distancing & masks will be with us for years, definitely this year while people are still paranoid about murdering granny.

Other than the minority of exceptions for medical reasons unless a major issue with supply all Grannys, Grandad's and most others considered medically vulnerable should have had their second vaccine dose by the end of May. There will still the paranoid because the vaccine is not 100% effective but they should be very much a minority group. A free choice for them to voluntarily carry on with social distancing & masks as now but all legal requirements must end.

Government decisions must be based on facts plus the need to get the economy moving and Covid payments ended not Facebook, Twitter etc.

I was discussing the other day with my OH that I would quote like to spend a long weekend in London later this year doing various attractions/museums etc... As they will be much less busier than normal. Unfortunately I won't be going if mask mandates are still enforced.

Not specifically London but likewise no indoor attractions will be be getting my entrance fee and if driving rather than public transport, my normal first choice, is not to me overall a reasonable alternative no outdoor ones either. For the latter I am thinking of events where normally people spread out not a concert, stage show etc.

I love tourism as much as the next guy, honest! I also don't hold out for much chance to stay in accommodation in the UK knowing that everyone else is going to want to do the same thing. :'(

I see three scenarios based around two factors
- how many foreign destinations are permitted, the regulations and following on how many people choose to go abroad
- the actual UK laws and guidelines come July - September

If for the former few people and the latter few restrictions I too see the most popular places being crowded like the 1950's - 1960's and accommodation prices hiked up. If so I will not be bothering.
I wonder too compared to then how many fewer holiday beds there are in the UK?

If a good number go abroad there will be less pressure on the UK so more likely closer to pre-2020 and hence more likely I will go somewhere.

Worst case if significant UK restrictions there will be available accommodation but we will not be permitted to use it.

The key is to go against the crowd. There will be plenty of accommodation if you fancy a city break in Sheffield or some obscure market town in the Midlands. This is what I plan to do if international travel is definitely off (especially sheffield, I think it's the only major northern city I haven't been to yet). There are gems to be found.

The coastline, Cornwall, national parks, holiday parks, and capital cities will indeed be difficult though.

Coventry the 2021 City of Culture ........ and from one recent survey the least popular place to retire.
 
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There seems to be this view among many that Covid-19 is somehow a unique virus that will keep on mutating every few months to completely evade immunity and result in a pandemic that never ends. There never has been a pandemic that has never ended so why would Covid-19 be any different.

The HIV pandemic is still ongoing over 40 years later...
 
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