Coronavirus Briefing with Whitty and Vallance (21/09)

[big_rig]

Thing is all this scaremongering today from Vallance and Whitty of new cases could reach 50,000 a day within a few weeks. Boris may not wait another week to see if the new cases comes down, he's holding an emergency "Cobra" meeting about it tomorrow, and could come up with TOUGHER restrictions or even a national lockdown. That said, I feel it may not be as bad as another national lockdown now. There were reports in the media at the weekend that a full national lockdown could come into force within days, and also reports today that London could go into lockdown TODAY. None of these have happened so far.

Don't worry, the Mayor is trying his best! He must not have been able to/chosen not to hear the phrases 'if' and 'this is not a prediction.'

https://twitter.com/SadiqKhan/status/1308104982315569152

The Government’s Chief Medical and Scientific Advisers made it clear: COVID-19 is spreading exponentially, in all age groups across the UK. The evidence from elsewhere in the world, and what we know about this disease, shows that this will lead to significant increases in hospitalisations and deaths without further action.

 

[STINT47]

Even in the worse case scenario 50,000 cases and 200 death a day out of a population of 66 million is something we can live with

It's not nice but ultimately we are born, we live and we die. Whilst I do the living bit I want to enjoy whatever time I get on this earth. Not spend it restricted and unhappy due to lockdown measures.

 

[DelayRepay]

Thing is all this scaremongering today from Vallance and Whitty of new cases could reach 50,000 a day within a few weeks. Boris may not wait another week to see if the new cases comes down, he's holding an emergency "Cobra" meeting about it tomorrow, and could come up with TOUGHER restrictions or even a national lockdown. That said, I feel it may not be as bad as another national lockdown now. There were reports in the media at the weekend that a full national lockdown could come into force within days, and also reports today that London could go into lockdown TODAY. None of these have happened so far.

There will not be another lockdown (assuming that what happened between March - May was actually a lockdown). The government have no appetite for this. They really have no appetite to close schools as that would be a complete admission of failure.

We will see additional measures, but any talk of a lockdown is just so that when the measures are announced, people thing "phew, at least it's not a lockdown" rather than thinking "what a useless government".

 

[LAX54]

Even in the worse case scenario 50,000 cases and 200 death a day out of a population of 66 million is something we can live with

It's not nice but ultimately we are born, we live and we die. Whilst I do the living bit I want to enjoy whatever time I get on this earth. Not spend it restricted and unhappy due to lockdown measures.

And I think a lot of the 'oldies' would agree with that, they want to live life to the best that they can, not be locked away not seeing anyone, and I have no doubt that may well hasten them to the other world anyway !

stop testing and the 'official / reported' positive figures being quoted will suddenly plummet !

 

[Bletchleyite]

Thing is all this scaremongering today from Vallance and Whitty of new cases could reach 50,000 a day within a few weeks. Boris may not wait another week to see if the new cases comes down, he's holding an emergency "Cobra" meeting about it tomorrow, and could come up with TOUGHER restrictions or even a national lockdown. That said, I feel it may not be as bad as another national lockdown now. There were reports in the media at the weekend that a full national lockdown could come into force within days, and also reports today that London could go into lockdown TODAY. None of these have happened so far.

As I said, my prediction is that the "local lockdown" rules go national until the curve is "bent".

 

[nlogax]

stop testing and the 'official / reported' positive figures being quoted will suddenly plummet !

You'd rather we just stopped counting so it just 'goes away'?

Some orange guy 3000 miles due west recently came out with something similar.

 

[DB]

You'd rather we just stopped counting so it just 'goes away'?

Some orange guy 3000 miles due east recently came out with something similar.

It would actually be helpful to change the focus of the counting - hospital admissions stats are of far more use than number of cases.

 

[LAX54]

You'd rather we just stopped counting so it just 'goes away'?

Some orange guy 3000 miles due east recently came out with something similar.

Of course, not, but I do not see why the Government seem surprised the numbers are rising, I would have thought (along with many others I have spoken to) that this would be expected !

Plus rather then numbers who prove positive, we need to know those that have been taken to hospital seriously ill .

 

[Solent&Wessex]

My concern with the Witty and Valance messaging today is that while Whitty did, for probably the first time, recognise there are economic implications of further restrictions, and that some of these are bad, he still seemed to imply that "keeping people safe from Covid" was more important than the other issues, especially general societal issues.

On numerous occasions he seemed to hint that meeting people from other households was the most dangerous thing you could do at all. He hinted that schools and workplaces were important [to keep the economy going] but everything else in life didn't matter and had to be given up to keep us safe.

Thus I would not be surprised if the measures Boris announces tomorrow would be near enough lockdown for many / most people anyway, namely:

No social interaction between or meeting other households in any setting indoors or outdoors

Curfew on hospitality with some types of venues being forced to close


They could then argue they are keeping schools, colleges and workplaces open to protect education and the economy, and are just simply restricting interaction between households.

But that is a natural human desire. And without it many other problems emerge. I'm not normally a stressed or depressed or anxious person at all, far from it in fact, but I do live alone and the bulk of my life outside of work relies on interaction with others, either in my hobby or my social activities. For the best part of 3 months earlier this year I saw no family, saw nobody except a one or two friends, had no social engagement with anyone apart from on a computer screen and when I wasn't at work just sat at home with nothing to do. After 3 months of that I was feeling lonely and isolated. I was glad when pubs opened and other social activities started up again.

It now seems, from all the hints so far being dropped, that all form of social activity with other households will be barred again - which for many people is a lock down in all but name.

We will likely just become worker drones, being allowed to go to work and go home again, and probably being allowed to go for a meal or a drink, but only with your own household with £10,000 fines if you even briefly acknowledge somebody who doesn't live in your house.

And still with no end in sight apart from some vague suggestion that we might have a vaccine next year.

And Whitty says we have to do this for 6 months to save lives.

Not for me all that. If I was forced to live the life of a hermit again then I don't think I would cope.

 

[GRALISTAIR]

I see that in cases per million of population UK is quite low according to this source.

COVID Live Update: 243,312,149 Cases and 4,946,037 Deaths from the Coronavirus - Worldometer

Live statistics and coronavirus news tracking the number of confirmed cases, recovered patients, tests, and death toll due to the COVID-19 coronavirus from Wuhan, China. Coronavirus counter with new cases, deaths, and number of tests per 1 Million population. Historical data and info. Daily...

www.worldometers.info

 

[C J Snarzell]

From reading the updates on here, I think most members are singing from the same hymn sheet regarding what BJ will announce tomorrow.

It seems 'socialising' is the target with the possibility of a Bolton style curfew with pubs/bars being forced to close by 10pm.

It's fair to say that reckless socialising fuled by alcohol is going to be on the PM hit list and the best way to do this is stop the late night revellers who descend on town & city centres until stupid O'clock. The only danger there is that they push the problem 'underground' with many late night gatherings in student halls and households.

We will have to see what is said tomorrow....

CJ

 

[trebor79]

The only danger there is that they push the problem 'underground' with many late night gatherings in student halls and households.

Students tend to do that anyway so that'll already be happening.

I'll be very annoyed and disappointed if they prevent us from seeing family. I expect there will be a ban on visiting other "households", but there's no way my parents and in law's are going to go without seeing their grandchildren. Well, the mother in law might, but she's paranoid and just slavishly follows the guidance.
There needs to be a recognition that seeing close family is necessary.

Also what about things like tradesmen and cleaners?

 

[C J Snarzell]

Students tend to do that anyway so that'll already be happening.

I'll be very annoyed and disappointed if they prevent us from seeing family. I expect there will be a ban on visiting other "households", but there's no way my parents and in law's are going to go without seeing their grandchildren. Well, the mother in law might, but she's paranoid and just slavishly follows the guidance.
There needs to be a recognition that seeing close family is necessary.

Also what about things like tradesmen and cleaners?

Hopefully there will be flexibility to still have some contact with immediate family. Mental health will sky rocket if people are kept isolated from loved ones, especially as the long dark winter nights are rapidly approaching.

There has to be some fairness at least. I do think the problem lies with the small number who behave recklessly when there's alcohol in steady supply so I would hope that the PM targets the late night binge drinkers.

When my dad worked nights in the 1970s, all pubs used to close at 11pm and the only people on the streets afterwards where either homeless or up to no good. Maybe the new measures will feel like a step back in time.

CJ

 

[yorkie]

Even in the worse case scenario 50,000 cases and 200 death a day out of a population of 66 million is something we can live with...

Quite. This would not have been a particularly unusual outcome in a typical 'flu season not that long ago.

I was playing football today (with mostly people from Network Rail) and there was talk that it may be our 'last session for a while'; it bloody well not be! They need to keep their hands off sports activities. I don't particularly mind if they restrict us to social gatherings of 6 for a while but they'd better not stop 7-a-side outdoor football.

 

[Domh245]

Also what about things like tradesmen and cleaners?

Seeing as they were allowed to operate at the height of the lockdown, I can't see why they'd be prevented this time around, especially as this time there does actually appear to be some acknowledgement that economic activity is important

 

[Bletchleyite]

Also what about things like tradesmen and cleaners?

There has for most of the time been an exception for business services. More businesses closed voluntarily than needed to.

 

[Islineclear3_1]

Seeing as they were allowed to operate at the height of the lockdown, I can't see why they'd be prevented this time around, especially as this time there does actually appear to be some acknowledgement that economic activity is important

Not prevented maybe but when I needed tradesmen back in March/April/May, they were all either too scared of coming out in case they caught the virus or they were following the Government's advice. I had jobs booked but nothing got done until June!

Either small businesses continue to work - or go out of business; it's their choice

 

[Reliablebeam]

My concern with the Witty and Valance messaging today is that while Whitty did, for probably the first time, recognise there are economic implications of further restrictions, and that some of these are bad, he still seemed to imply that "keeping people safe from Covid" was more important than the other issues, especially general societal issues.

On numerous occasions he seemed to hint that meeting people from other households was the most dangerous thing you could do at all. He hinted that schools and workplaces were important [to keep the economy going] but everything else in life didn't matter and had to be given up to keep us safe.

Thus I would not be surprised if the measures Boris announces tomorrow would be near enough lockdown for many / most people anyway, namely:

No social interaction between or meeting other households in any setting indoors or outdoors

Curfew on hospitality with some types of venues being forced to close


They could then argue they are keeping schools, colleges and workplaces open to protect education and the economy, and are just simply restricting interaction between households.

But that is a natural human desire. And without it many other problems emerge. I'm not normally a stressed or depressed or anxious person at all, far from it in fact, but I do live alone and the bulk of my life outside of work relies on interaction with others, either in my hobby or my social activities. For the best part of 3 months earlier this year I saw no family, saw nobody except a one or two friends, had no social engagement with anyone apart from on a computer screen and when I wasn't at work just sat at home with nothing to do. After 3 months of that I was feeling lonely and isolated. I was glad when pubs opened and other social activities started up again.

It now seems, from all the hints so far being dropped, that all form of social activity with other households will be barred again - which for many people is a lock down in all but name.

We will likely just become worker drones, being allowed to go to work and go home again, and probably being allowed to go for a meal or a drink, but only with your own household with £10,000 fines if you even briefly acknowledge somebody who doesn't live in your house.

And still with no end in sight apart from some vague suggestion that we might have a vaccine next year.

And Whitty says we have to do this for 6 months to save lives.

Not for me all that. If I was forced to live the life of a hermit again then I don't think I would cope.

This sums up my own view and situation!

Even if they allow these ridiculous 'support bubbles' I will end up completely isolated as the support bubble concept doesn't really work unless it's someone you are in a relationship with.

To make matters worse I suspect my workplace will simply shut up shop again and go working from home as it's not worth the hassle!

 

[Bletchleyite]

Even if they allow these ridiculous 'support bubbles' I will end up completely isolated as the support bubble concept doesn't really work unless it's someone you are in a relationship with.

That isn't true. It doesn't work for everyone, but it does allow single people to "bubble up" with e.g. their best mate (as I did), their parents or other family. Yes, it allows relationships to continue but that isn't all it does.

Effectively it allows a single person plus any of the kids living with them to join any other one household, the downside being that the overall thing is treated as one household so if one gets COVID everyone isolates.

 

[STINT47]

If they ban us from seeing people outside of our households then the police are going to be very busy over Christmas.

 

[Reliablebeam]

That isn't true. It doesn't work for everyone, but it does allow single people to "bubble up" with e.g. their best mate (as I did), their parents or other family. Yes, it allows relationships to continue but that isn't all it does.

Effectively it allows a single person plus any of the kids living with them to join any other one household, the downside being that the overall thing is treated as one household so if one gets COVID everyone isolates.

I'm glad it worked for you. It doesn't work if you don't have family close by. It can also cause friction depending on who you 'choose' and can be problematic when most of your mates have got kids and really need/want to 'bubble' with other child bearing friends.

It looks like I have six months of isolation to look forward to, especially as I suspect my workplace will shut down again. My anger is boiling over with this. The idiot Johnson was actually on my site last friday. Speaking to colleagues today, we all agreed it was a good thing his attendance was kept under wraps.

Edit - if work does stay open, then I will able to 'socialise' with most of my friends in work, but have no outside social contact with them.

 

[Darandio]

It looks like I have six months of isolation to look forward to, especially as I suspect my workplace will shut down again.

Has it got a bottomless pit of money? There's no way we are going down the furlough route for another six months.

 

[Bletchleyite]

I'm glad it worked for you. It doesn't work if you don't have family close by. It can also cause friction depending on who you 'choose' and can be problematic when most of your mates have got kids and really need/want to 'bubble' with other child bearing friends.

Unless most of your mates are single parents, they can't anyway. It's a single person plus any kids they have can join with any other household.

 

[DB]

I'm glad it worked for you. It doesn't work if you don't have family close by. It can also cause friction depending on who you 'choose' and can be problematic when most of your mates have got kids and really need/want to 'bubble' with other child bearing friends.

It looks like I have six months of isolation to look forward to, especially as I suspect my workplace will shut down again. My anger is boiling over with this. The idiot Johnson was actually on my site last friday. Speaking to colleagues today, we all agreed it was a good thing his attendance was kept under wraps.

Edit - if work does stay open, then I will able to 'socialise' with most of my friends in work, but have no outside social contact with them.

Likewise! I have nothing but contempt for Johnson, Hancock and their cronies who seem obsessed with the hiding behind the sofa strategy, and ignoring the increasing knock on effects of this.

Unless most of your mates are single parents, they can't anyway. It's a single person plus any kids they have can join with any other household.

And what are the chances of them being able to actually enforce this? If people want to ignore it, they will.

 

[Reliablebeam]

Has it got a bottomless pit of money? There's no way we are going down the furlough route for another six months.

We're a public sector outfit (but not direct civil service) so tend to follow the government line quite closely -most of our private sector clients were back in work a long time before we were.

We worked from home rather than furloughed - it works ok for us scientists and engineers but I don't know what they will do with the technician grades this time around. But it's not a bottomless pit of money as of course the rest of the economy tanks as I like to remind my co-workers!

 

[DB]

Has it got a bottomless pit of money? There's no way we are going down the furlough route for another six months.

Home working, maybe?

 

[Reliablebeam]

Unless most of your mates are single parents, they can't anyway. It's a single person plus any kids they have can join with any other household.

I think the fact we have different opinions/interpretations on this illustrates the problems of Whitty et al trying to micromanage human interactions and why their idiotic little schemes are doomed to fail.

For my situation, I remember it not making any difference.

 

[trebor79]

I'm glad it worked for you. It doesn't work if you don't have family close by. It can also cause friction depending on who you 'choose' and can be problematic when most of your mates have got kids and really need/want to 'bubble' with other child bearing friends.

It looks like I have six months of isolation to look forward to, especially as I suspect my workplace will shut down again. My anger is boiling over with this. The idiot Johnson was actually on my site last friday. Speaking to colleagues today, we all agreed it was a good thing his attendance was kept under wraps.

Edit - if work does stay open, then I will able to 'socialise' with most of my friends in work, but have no outside social contact with them.

The bubble thing is all nonsense anyway. Aside from the puerile name, there no official list of who is bubbled with who. So you could be in multiple bubbles and nobody is any the wiser.
I wouldn't worry from an isolation POV, you can always get up away from home anyway. I'm more concerned about how my kids get to see their grandparents without risking curtain twitchers dobbing us in. Current plan would be to meet at a park and hope Priti Patel isn't hiding in the bushes to tell on us.

 

[Freightmaster]

I see that in cases per million of population UK is quite low according to this source.

COVID Live Update: 243,312,149 Cases and 4,946,037 Deaths from the Coronavirus - Worldometer

Live statistics and coronavirus news tracking the number of confirmed cases, recovered patients, tests, and death toll due to the COVID-19 coronavirus from Wuhan, China. Coronavirus counter with new cases, deaths, and number of tests per 1 Million population. Historical data and info. Daily...

www.worldometers.info

Unfortunately, The 'official' case numbers are completely meaningless due to lack of
community testing during the peak of the virus in March and April.

So while the worldometers site quotes just under 399,000 "cases", the true figure is more likely
to be in the region of 12 million or more, which sounds terrible, but is actually a good thing,
as it means that the virus has already burned through a significant proportion of the population
providing a certain degree of herd immunity in some areas, such as the South East.





MARK

 

[Dent]

So while the worldometers site quotes just under 399,000 "cases", the true figure is more likely to be in the region of 12 million or more,

How did you arrive at that figure?