COVID 19 Good News Stories

[AdamWW]

Four countries where the risk of a 'second peak' is being talked up. The top half of the graph shows cases, the bottom half deaths (taken from Twitter). This could be a case of the virus mutating but also the effects of better medical treatment for those who do get it. In any case, good news.

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Quite striking, but I don't think you can conclude that deaths/infection are changing that dramatically unless you know that the numbers being tested have remained the same.

 

[brad465]

Quite striking, but I don't think you can conclude that deaths/infection are changing that dramatically unless you know that the numbers being tested have remained the same.

According to the Worldomoter's Covid tracking while new daily cases are at their highest, the daily death count is still below its peak in April, despite around 3x as many daily cases being confirmed, so both numerically and proportionally, this is pointing towards good medical treatment and/or a less deadly mutuation:

 

[Bletchleyite]

That is certainly interesting. It could have a few causes - but one of those could be the virus evolving to be less dangerous as they tend to do. That would be a very positive development.

Whatever the reason (provided healthcare can cope), though, if it stops killing people we can stop worrying about it.

 

[Yew]

According to the Worldomoter's Covid tracking while new daily cases are at their highest, the daily death count is still below its peak in April, despite around 3x as many daily cases being confirmed, so both numerically and proportionally, this is pointing towards good medical treatment and/or a less deadly mutuation:

Or the infection isn't getting to those who are vulnerable, which is also good.

 

[DB]

Or the infection isn't getting to those who are vulnerable, which is also good.

Or the prevalence of it was vastly under-estimated earlier on - it's only fairly recently that there has been much testing of people with no symptoms.

 

[Yew]

Here's a peer reviewed paper (that hasn't gone through final formatting yet) Suggesting some interesting things:

https://www.cell.com/action/showPdf?pii=S0092-8674%2820%2931008-4

In this study, we used a systematic approach to map cellular and humoral immune responses against SARS-CoV-2 in patients with acute moderate or severe COVID19, individuals in the convalescent phase after mild or severe COVID-19, exposed family members, and healthy individuals who donated blood before (2019) or during the pandemic (2020). Individuals in the convalescent phase after mild COVID-19 were traced after returning to Sweden from endemic areas (mostly Northern Italy). These donors exhibited robust memory T cell responses months after infection, even in the absence of detectable circulating antibodies specific for SARS-CoV-2, indicating a previously unanticipated degree of population-level immunity against COVID-19.

Suggesting that T-cell immunity is robust and long lasting, as we have seen with other coronaviruses

[relative to the number of people who tested positive for antibodies] about twice as many healthy individuals who donated blood during the pandemic generated memory T cell responses in the absence of detectable circulating antibody responses, implying that seroprevalence as an indicator may underestimate the extent of population-level immunity against SARS-CoV-2.

Suggesting that immunity levels are higher than antibody testing alone would imply.

Of note, we detected cross-reactive T cell responses against spike or membrane in 28% of the unexposed healthy blood donors, consistent with a high degree of preexisting immune responses potentially induced by other coronaviruses (Braun et al., 2020; Grifoni et al., 2020; Le Bert et al., 2020). Data on the cross-reactive responses where based on cryopreserved samples, which could have a negative impact on the frequency of T cell responders in SARS-CoV-2 unexposed donors (Owen et al., 2007). Although we detected generally broader and stronger T cell responses in seronegative convalescent and exposed individuals compared to unexposed donors, it remains possible that a fraction of the anamnestic SARS-CoV-2-specific T cell response was initially induced by seasonal coronaviruses (Mateus et al., 2020). The biological relevance of cross-reactive T cell responses remains unclear. However, it is tempting to speculate that such responses may provide at least partial protection against SARS-CoV-2, and different disease severity, given that pre-existing T cell immunity has been associated with beneficial outcomes after challenge with the pandemic influenza virus strain H1N1 (Sridhar et al., 2013; Wilkinson et al., 2012).

Suggesting that 28% of people may already have some cross-reactive immunity from previous coronaviruses.

Overall, it certainly provides a boost for herd immunity. If those figures hold true for the UK, back of the envelope calculations put London VERY close to the myhtical 66% threshold already.

 

[Justin Smith]

Here's a peer reviewed paper (that hasn't gone through final formatting yet) Suggesting some interesting things:

https://www.cell.com/action/showPdf?pii=S0092-8674%2820%2931008-4

Suggesting that T-cell immunity is robust and long lasting, as we have seen with other coronaviruses


Suggesting that immunity levels are higher than antibody testing alone would imply.


Suggesting that 28% of people may already have some cross-reactive immunity from previous coronaviruses.

Overall, it certainly provides a boost for herd immunity. If those figures hold true for the UK, back of the envelope calculations put London VERY close to the myhtical 66% threshold already.

I have been saying this for months. All the death rate graphs (like on here) indicate this, even within the same country : New York has had a very high exposure to Covid (it must be approaching herd immunity) and so its death rate now is low. But Florida hasn't yet had a death rate anywhere near as high so its current death rate is high.

 

[Westcountryman]

Or the infection isn't getting to those who are vulnerable, which is also good.

Or, sadly, that the virus has taken such a toll on the most vulnerable that there are considerably fewer to catch it.

 

[Yew]

It looks like we have a T-cell test now

Coronavirus: Test for Covid-19 T cells immunity developed

The test has identified past infection even when an antibodies test is negative, scientists say.

www.bbc.co.uk

A company in Cardiff has developed a test for coronavirus T cells - which can potentially provide longer-term immunity to the virus than antibodies.

The body develops T cells when fighting an infection and they can create more antibodies if a person is exposed again.

This means the immune system could remember how to fight Covid-19 even after original antibodies have faded.

Indoor Biotechnologies is "hopeful" the test will help in vaccine development.

It has received almost £50,000 in funding from Innovate UK, a research scheme supported by the UK Government.

The company's trials found some people who had coronavirus but tested negative for antibodies went on to test positive for T cells - meaning more people may have some immunity than previously thought - and for longer.

 

[jtuk]

Here's a peer-reviewed paper from last week that I'd not seen before re: the infections in Germany:

A phenomenological approach to assessing the effectiveness of COVID-19 related nonpharmaceutical interventions in Germany

Nonpharmaceutical interventions against the spread of SARS-CoV-2 in Germany included the cancellation of mass events (from March 8), closures of schoo…

www.sciencedirect.com

Key conclusions:

This study finds clear evidence of a decline of SARS-CoV-2 infections in Germany at the beginning of March 2020, which can be attributed to relatively small nonpharmaceutical interventions (cancellation of mass events) and voluntary behavioural changes. A trend change of infections from exponential growth to decay was not induced by the “lockdown” measures but occurred earlier.

 

[scotrail158713]

To keep things in perspective, Sikora's tweeted on the number in hospitals in England right now:

https://twitter.com/ProfKarolSikora/status/1296107523544616960

This equates to more than three hospitals for every two Covid patients

I’ve just read the above post in this thread. It’s encouraging, but Sky, BBC and all the others will never let us know it.

 

[Peter Mugridge]

I’ve just read the above post in this thread. It’s encouraging, but Sky, BBC and all the others will never let us know it.

It's overall down further today to 895 in hospital / 73 on ventilators. For the entire UK ( not just England like in the tweet ).

 

[Jamesrob637]

Plus the death toll is only around a seven-day rolling average of ten right now.

 

[brad465]

Another treatment found for severe Covid cases:

Coronavirus: Cheap steroids save lives from severe Covid

Eight lives would be saved for every 100 critically ill patients given steroids.

www.bbc.co.uk

Cheap steroids can save the lives of patients who are critically ill with Covid-19, studies show.

The findings confirm the results of an earlier trial, which has already led to steroids being used widely for Covid patients in intensive care.

The new results, published in JAMA, show eight lives would be saved for every 100 patients treated.

 

[Bletchleyite]

So it appears any anti-inflammatory might work. Which sort of makes sense.

That's a potentially large change for severe asthmatics, who are treated with (inhaled or tablet) corticosteroids, who have potentially gone from being in a shielding group to potentially being lower risk than normal as their asthma treatment is also a COVID treatment?

 

[yorkie]

Some good news about immunity from Iceland:

https://twitter.com/i/events/1301545502102691842

How many individuals develop antibodies and how long do they last? ...

A study on the pandemic in Iceland offers some comforting evidence. The researchers looked at serum samples from 30,576 individuals, using six types of antibody testing https://trib.al/220Tz6Z

The findings are:

• 91.1% out of 1,797 recovered Covid-19 patients produced detectable levels of antibodies
• These levels hadn’t declined four months after diagnosis
• The immune response was higher among older people and those who had the worst symptoms

This is great news for the efficacy of any vaccine and appears to confirm that reinfections may indeed be rare

And of course any immunity through antibodies is in addition to any immunity we develop through T-cells (which is harder to test for and detect)

Original article: https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/a...ronavirus-iceland-gives-us-some-good-covid-19

 

[brad465]

Another treatment trial set to get underway, looking at monoclonal antibodies made in a lab:

Coronavirus: Monoclonal antibodies to begin UK trial

Laboratory-made antibodies are to be trialled on 2,000 people with coronavirus in UK hospitals.

www.bbc.co.uk

A new antibody treatment is to be trialled on Covid-19 patients in UK hospitals.

Monoclonal antibodies, which are potent, laboratory-made antibodies, will be given to about 2,000 people to see if they are effective against coronavirus.

It forms part of the UK Recovery Trial, which found that a cheap steroid called dexamethasone could save lives.

The first patients will be given the new drugs in the coming weeks.

Prof Martin Landray from the University of Oxford, who is co-leading the Recovery Trial, said: “This is the first type of treatment that's targeted for this specific virus.

“There are lots of good reasons for thinking it might well be effective - stopping the virus from reproducing, stopping the virus from causing damage, improving survival for patients.

 

[jtuk]

Good luck finding 2,000 people with coronavirus in hospitals

 

[nlogax]

Another treatment trial set to get underway, looking at monoclonal antibodies made in a lab:

Coronavirus: Monoclonal antibodies to begin UK trial

Laboratory-made antibodies are to be trialled on 2,000 people with coronavirus in UK hospitals.

www.bbc.co.uk

Good news, this further strengthens the 'portfolio' treatment approach for both treatment and prevention perspectives. The more effective items there are in the C19 kit bag, the better for everyone.

Good luck finding 2,000 people with coronavirus in hospitals

Let's revisit that statement in a couple of weeks?

 

[jtuk]

Let's revisit that statement in a couple of weeks?

As long as we revisit just waiting in two weeks after VE Day, everyone charging the beaches, the BLM protests, the pubs opening. You know, just for balance

 

[nlogax]

As long as we revisit just waiting in two weeks after VE Day, everyone charging the beaches, the BLM protests, the pubs opening. You know, just for balance

I'm not going to bite. Try here? https://www.railforums.co.uk/thread...tes-and-a-possible-second-wave.208012/page-18

 

[AdamWW]

As long as we revisit just waiting in two weeks after VE Day, everyone charging the beaches, the BLM protests, the pubs opening. You know, just for balance

The difference is, as I expect you're aware, that this time infection levels are rising.

Maybe rising infections won't lead to rising hospitalisations. A bit early to say I think.

 

[Richard Scott]

The difference is, as I expect you're aware, that this time infection levels are rising.

Maybe rising infections won't lead to rising hospitalisations. A bit early to say I think.

Are they, heard that some of these (maybe many) of these positive tests are actually due to viral fragments present in people who've already had it and recovered and possibly were asymptomatic?

 

[AdamWW]

Are they, heard that some of these (maybe many) of these positive tests are actually due to viral fragments present in people who've already had it and recovered and possibly were asymptomatic?

According to the Covid symptoms study, symptomatic cases are going up. (My bold in the quote below)

We are now seeing a significant increase in cases in the UK with over 3,000 daily new symptomatic cases, and an estimated R value of 1.2. We are now confident that this rise is statistically significant and that we are definitely experiencing a rise in COVID cases in the UK right now.

So, yes. Probably.

 

[adc82140]

I tend not to take much notice of an organisation that sells quackery and diet products. They claim to share their data with the NHS. They probably do, but that does not make if official data of any type.
They have confused positive tests with symptomatic cases. Only over the weekend Matt Hancock was complaining about asymptomatic people clogging up the testing system.

 

[AdamWW]

I tend not to take much notice of an organisation that sells quackery and diet products. They claim to share their data with the NHS. They probably do, but that does not make if official data of any type.
They have confused positive tests with symptomatic cases. Only over the weekend Matt Hancock was complaining about asymptomatic people clogging up the testing system.

What is your evidence that they have done that?

As opposed to using symptoms reported by their users?

 

[adc82140]

They are quoting the daily positive figures.

 

[matt]

A reminder this thread is for Covid Good New Stories. Discussion about the case rate is more suited to this https://www.railforums.co.uk/thread...death-rates-and-a-possible-second-wave.208012 thread.

 

[philosopher]

There is a letter from a professor at Bristol University in the Guardian saying we may be closer to herd immunity due to up to half the population having pre existing immunity

The implication is that 35%-50% of the population is naturally immune, and up to 25% antibody prevalence is being approached in some areas of the world (17.5% in London). We could already be approaching 75% immunity in those regions, well within the estimated 60%-80% needed for herd immunity. So, where death rates have settled to historical norms, this would be explicable by natural immunity. We may be closer to the end of this pandemic than we think.

Is Covid’s end closer than we think? | Letters

Letters: Up to half the world’s population may have natural immunity to coronavirus, writes Prof Moin Saleem. Plus Dr David Grimes on the evidence that vitamin D provides some protection

www.theguardian.com

 

[Yew]

It looks like there are plans to undertake some widespread t-cell testing; hopefully we can get a real understanding of the level of immunity we have.

UK to trial effectiveness of T-cell immunity test kits

Study could reignite hopes that coronavirus immunity 'passports' may be possible, allowing protected people to safely return to work

www.telegraph.co.uk

Thousands of people will be recruited to find out whether they have acquired T-cell immunity to coronavirus under a new trial arranged by a group of British scientists and Public Health England (PHE)....