Lockdown could end two weeks early if Covid data continues to improve, the Mail has been told.
Downing Street has opened the door to ending restrictions on July 5, amid growing evidence that assumptions used by government scientists to justify delaying Freedom Day were too pessimistic.
Real-world data on the effectiveness of the vaccines has proved to be far better than the assumptions used by scientists who drew up alarming models predicting tens of thousands of extra deaths.
And although cases of the Indian variant are still rising, the rate of growth has fallen dramatically in recent days as surge testing and vaccinations are stepped up in hotspot areas.
While ministers believe a July 19 reopening remains the most likely option, a government source said a two-week 'review point' demanded by Boris Johnson will now be a 'genuine review of the data', which could lead to Freedom Day being brought forward to July 5.
The source told the Mail: 'The decision to delay reopening was so finely balanced – probably the most difficult decision of the whole pandemic – that the PM wanted a review point built in so that if things did change we could move sooner.
No-one wants these restrictions in place for a day longer than necessary.'
However while the week-long trend had shown a slowing rate of case growth, yesterday's daily case data showed Britain breached 11,000 coronavirus cases for the first time since February as the Indian variant continues to spread across the country.
Department of Health bosses posted 11,007 positive tests, up 48.9 per cent on last Thursday's figure of 7,393 and the highest daily total since February 19 (12,027).
Coronavirus hospitalisations also spiked by 45 per cent in the space of the week, with the outbreak now starting to put pressure back on some parts of the NHS where the mutant strain is spreading quickest. There were 222 Covid admissions on Sunday — the latest day data is available for — up from 153 the previous week.
Tory MPs said it was vital Mr Johnson moved to unlock society and the economy at the earliest opportunity if the data improved. Sir Robert Syms said: 'We need to get people's freedoms back.
'We cannot save everybody, but what we have done is save thousands and thousands of lives. Now we need to safeguard employment, safeguard businesses and safeguard people's personal relationships.'
The Government's roadmap originally planned to move to step four on June 21, which was dubbed Freedom Day. Businesses in sectors such as hospitality and the arts invested millions in the hope that crippling restrictions such as the one-metre rule would finally be lifted.
But the PM was persuaded to reluctantly 'pause' the reopening after being presented with models suggesting a four-week delay could save thousands of lives. But after days of improving data, Mr Johnson's official spokesman yesterday appeared to open the door to the possibility of bringing forward step four.
'We continue to assess the latest available data,' the spokesman said.
'The PM made clear we will monitor the position every single day. We have got a two-week review point which would allow us potentially to move to step four'. Under the most pessimistic scenario presented to ministers, Imperial College London warned Britain could experience 203,824 more deaths by June next year.
But MPs were told this week that the model was based on the assumption that the AstraZeneca jab would reduce hospitalisations by between 77 and 87 per cent after two doses. But Public Health England data released on Monday shows the vaccine is 92 per cent effective.
Last week, Covid cases were increasing at a rate of more than 60 per cent a week. But in recent days, data suggests the rate has dropped to half that.
A Cabinet source said: 'We were told that cases were going to continue to rise exponentially and it already looks as though that assumption is questionable.
'If we get to the end of next week and the data is moving decisively in the right direction, no-one is going to criticise us for changing our minds and opening up a bit early.'
