Covid restrictions to end on 19th July

[43066]

If this is as good as it gets then there could be a lot more trouble to come. I have based my argument on hospital capacity, not on mortality.

Well, on the basis that it’s generally accepted that it’s impossible to eradicate Covid, exactly when do we think it is going to be any better?

The overall mortality (from all causes) this year hasn’t been that much higher than normal year with a middling to bad flu season. And the NHS has had periods where it’s been quieter than usual, largely because it basically became a Covid only service for much of the last year or so. Yet there seems to have been little or no moves to increase capacity and resilience, despite £35billon being squandered on track and trace (which is still next to useless).

It seems to me the tail is beginning to wag the dog: surely there needs to come a point where we recognise that we need adapt the NHS to suit the current reality, rather than restricting society to suit the health service. Perhaps wholesale root and branch reform is needed along the healthcare models adopted in other European countries whether then our centralised mess.

 

[Freightmaster]

Yes, and that will be my own choice. Personally I'm getting tired of mask wearing, but I've done it for so long I might as well carry on a bit longer.

Please define "a bit longer" - three weeks to flatten the curve perhaps?!

Then when you see people (not me) in their own gardens wearing masks, or when driving their own car, it tells you how so many people are just prepared to shrug their shoulders and carry on, needlessly terrified of Covid in situations where there is absolutely no risk of transmission and are simply not bothered won't be confident enough to be able to lead a normal life for months, if not years.

Fixed that for you...

It's real shame that some people on this forum can't see the mental health problems that
the pandemic restrictions and media scaremongering have caused for people of all ages.




MARK

 

[johncrossley]

In the Netherlands they stopped mandating masks in shops and most other indoor settings (although they are required on public transport). From what I have heard, almost everyone stopped wearing them as soon as they were no longer required.

 

[43066]

or government ministers pre-judging the official decision or leaking to friendly newspapers.

Keep in mind the official decision has already largely been made. The “leaking” is a deliberate process, both to monitor “real time” public opinion/media reaction, and to warm the electorate up for delivery of the “official” announcement.

 

[Andyh82]

This is much more about politics, and is no doubt coming from the mayor; simultaneously putting clear blue water between himself and the government and playing to his voter base (what’s the betting that Labour voters, at least the London ones, are likely to be pro restriction?).

Looking on Twitter, there is already politics being played

The usual people who talk politics all the time, saying they will keep wearing a mask because it’s Boris/The Tories telling them they shouldn’t do

 

[yorkie]

In the Netherlands they stopped mandating masks in shops and most other indoor settings (although they are required on public transport). From what I have heard, almost everyone stopped wearing them as soon as they were no longer required.

It'll be the same here.

People like @Ianno87 are entitled to their views and to behave differently but they will be in a small minority.

Looking on Twitter, there is already politics being played

The authoritarian hard left hysterical brigade are absolutely losing it on Twitter; it's amusing seeing them whine so much while talking absolute nonsense.

 

[Busaholic]

So 1984 morphs into Animal Farm

'Data not dates' to be replaced by 'Dates not data', though soon there'll be no trace that the former policy ever existed. 'Snowball' Johnson will continue as Chief Porker, of course.

 

[43066]

The authoritarian hard left hysterical brigade are absolutely losing it on Twitter; it's amusing seeing them whine so much while talking absolute nonsense.

From the article posted up thread, the hard left can count (at least some) sage members amongst their numbers! Some of the events of the past year and a half make rather more sense when that is considered.

 

[yorksrob]

But it's always been "dates not data" - it's just that the dates in question were approved by SAGE - "not before [Insert Date]"

 

[nedchester]

I do wonder if TOCs will try and enforce face masks & distancing even if they are not required, which will only lead to arguments between passengers and staff. I can't see hospitality businesses doing this as one can just take their custom elsewhere to a venue not insisting on distancing/masks etc.. With railways if I need to take a train from A to B I have to use the TOC that serves that route with the only alternative being to travel by car which won't be viable in all situations.

Personally I won't be warning a mask from 19th July onwards if it is not legally required regardless of whether TOCs and other businesses try and persuade me to wear one.

They could try but the current mask mandate is not part of the by-laws which is why only the BTP can enforce.

A by-law change would take time

 

[Busaholic]

But it's always been "dates not data" - it's just that the dates in question were approved by SAGE - "not before [Insert Date]"

Not according to Matt Hancock: oh, sorry, I see his name has been deleted and maybe he never existed.

 

[brad465]

The authoritarian hard left hysterical brigade are absolutely losing it on Twitter; it's amusing seeing them whine so much while talking absolute nonsense.

While I'm of left persuasion I certainly don't agree with them on this, but have found it amusing reading (my favourite one in response to Javid's remarks was "Can we get the sex man back please?")

While I'd like to think they are a minority, I hope I either don't encounter them in a setting where mask mandates disappear, and/or there's at least enough non-compliance for "safety in numbers". It probably helps that on public transport most people just sit about not talking to anyone they don't know.

Apparently tomorrow afternoon there'll be a press conference to confirm this:

Covid: Mask law and one metre rule set to end in England

Boris Johnson is ready to announce most remaining Covid restrictions can be eased from 19 July.

www.bbc.co.uk

Prime Minister Boris Johnson is preparing to detail the final step of England's roadmap out of lockdown.
He is expected to announce the next steps on social distancing, face coverings and working from home, as well as on care home visits, during a No 10 news conference on Monday.
Step four of the roadmap was delayed last month to no earlier than 19 July.
Mr Johnson said as we "learn to live with this virus, we must... exercise judgement when going about our lives".
Labour's shadow health secretary Jonathan Ashworth urged the government to confirm "what level of mortality and cases of long Covid" it considers acceptable.
"Letting cases rise with no action means further pressure on the NHS, more sickness, disruption to education - and risks a new variant emerging with a selection advantage," he warned.
Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland are in charge of their own coronavirus rules, and the Scottish government has suggested it may retain some basic measures at its next review in August.

Praising the successful vaccine rollout, Mr Johnson said Monday's update would "set out how we can restore people's freedoms when we reach step four".
"But I must stress that the pandemic is not over and that cases will continue to rise over the coming weeks," he added.
Downing Street said step four would go ahead on 19 July only if the government's "four tests" for easing curbs had been met.
The verdict on those tests - on the jab rollout, vaccine effectiveness, hospital admissions, and new virus variants - would only be confirmed on 12 July following a review of the latest data, No 10 said.
The findings of reviews on the use of Covid certification - or vaccine passports - and on social-distancing measures are also due to be announced by Mr Johnson on Monday.
Housing Secretary Robert Jenrick said on Sunday that England would move to a period without legal restrictions and with an emphasis on "personal responsibility", including on face masks.

Given this announcement, I think it's safe to say the easements will be happening, or if not and there is a sudden u-turn Johnson is toast.

 

[yorksrob]

Not according to Matt Hancock: oh, sorry, I see his name has been deleted and maybe he never existed.

I never believed it anyway !

 

[MikeWM]

While I'm of left persuasion I certainly don't agree with them on this, but have found it amusing reading (my favourite one in response to Javid's remarks was "Can we get the sex man back please?")

I'm formerly of (fairly hard) left persuasion, but I'll have to wait to see where the pieces all land in the next year or two to determine where I seem to be now. I don't think I've changed any of my views, but the world has shifted around very dramatically.

What we're seeing today is a mix of the genuinely terrified (for which the people who have made them terrified should be utterly ashamed of themselves) and those who simply think they see a political opportunity to attack the Tories.

The real mystery here is why the Tories allied themselves for so long with those on SAGE who would take any such opportunity to politically attack them. Hopefully we never end up there again.

While I'd like to think they are a minority, I hope I either don't encounter them in a setting where mask mandates disappear, and/or there's at least enough non-compliance for "safety in numbers". It probably helps that on public transport most people just sit about not talking to anyone they don't know.

I'm sure it will be fine. I've gone maskless (almost) all along, and lanyard-less for some weeks now, and while there certainly hasn't been 'safety in numbers' until fairly recently, I've had nothing notable occur. Only one 'random' has ever said anything to me about it, and that was on the Tube late last year, and was easily batted away.

 

[yorkie]

While I'm of left persuasion ...

So am I, but as a non-authoritarian moderate, the far left has repulsed me for quite some time now, and right now I find them utterly odious, and it's absolutely brilliant seeing their reaction. They are desperate to deny the effectiveness of vaccines and demand that everyone wears ineffective masks, while not even considering wearing effective masks themselves.

The 19th of July can't come soon enough for me; I see this as a huge victory for the moderates over the hysterical extremists.

 

[MikeWM]

I'll miss the full time working from home as I've saved a packet but, if it means getting back to normality, I can't say no.

I'm seeing suggestions tonight that the 'working from home' advice is one thing that isn't going to be dropped on 19th July.

I guess we'll have to wait to see what is announced tomorrow, but that's interesting if true.

 

[greyman42]

I'm seeing suggestions tonight that the 'working from home' advice is one thing that isn't going to be dropped on 19th July.

I guess we'll have to wait to see what is announced tomorrow, but that's interesting if true.

I would have thought that it will be the employers call on whether people have to go back to the office and how often.

 

[yorkie]

I would have thought that it will be the employers call on whether people have to go back to the office and how often.

The vast majority of employers are unlikely to go against Government guidance.

 

[Huntergreed]

I’m sorry, but anyone saying that people have not been needlessly terrified into submission by ridiculously over-the-top government messaging and this massive overreaction to what is, at a glance, a relatively mild respiratory virus is completely clueless.

I have taken up a job as a temporary summer worker in a store owned by a well-known retailer. The number of customers I serve on a daily basis, particularly elderly, who:

1) Not only wear masks, but also wear gloves when in the store

2) are cautious and constantly alert to maintain a 2m distance from others

3) Are visibly uncomfortable/anxious about the crowds/contact they have with others

is extremely alarming. Not least because the government are effectively responsible for terrifying an entire population needlessly, but because these people are now struggling to live their daily lives because of the government trying to frighten them into submission to comply with what are, at best, some half-baked political “rules” with little to no scientific basis.

There’s one customer who sticks in my mind more than any other when it comes to this.

It was a few days ago during the week. I was serving an elderly lady who:

Was wearing a FFP3 masks AND a face visor

Was wearing gloves

Was socially distancing herself (she refused to even place any items on the conveyor belt when the previous customer was about 3-4m away getting served.

Was visibly shaking when she had to stand near me to make her payment

Wiped down all the items with her gloves before placing them into her bag

Moved behind the screen whenever she needed to talk to me

My heart broke for this customer. This is NOT her fault. This is the fault of a government who are drunk on their own power and don’t think about anything other than how to promote and enforce some frankly needless, pointless, theatrical rules just to “look good” in the eyes of those who they have now terrified into submission. This is a sad, sad time for this county and I am beyond disgraced at what has happened to what was once a nation I was proud to be a part of. I can only hope that this will be confined to history books as a massive mistake and we will move on, wisen up, and start to recover from what has been, in my opinion, the most dramatic, disgusting act of government control ever imposed in our country’s modern history.

 

[philosopher]

I'm seeing suggestions tonight that the 'working from home' advice is one thing that isn't going to be dropped on 19th July.

I guess we'll have to wait to see what is announced tomorrow, but that's interesting if true.

The government telling people where they should work should end. It should be up to employees and employers, not the government to decide where people should work.

 

[brad465]

I'm formerly of (fairly hard) left persuasion, but I'll have to wait to see where the pieces all land in the next year or two to determine where I seem to be now. I don't think I've changed any of my views, but the world has shifted around very dramatically.

What we're seeing today is a mix of the genuinely terrified (for which the people who have made them terrified should be utterly ashamed of themselves) and those who simply think they see a political opportunity to attack the Tories.

The real mystery here is why the Tories allied themselves for so long with those on SAGE who would take any such opportunity to politically attack them. Hopefully we never end up there again.



I'm sure it will be fine. I've gone maskless (almost) all along, and lanyard-less for some weeks now, and while there certainly hasn't been 'safety in numbers' until fairly recently, I've had nothing notable occur. Only one 'random' has ever said anything to me about it, and that was on the Tube late last year, and was easily batted away.

So am I, but as a non-authoritarian moderate, the far left has repulsed me for quite some time now, and right now I find them utterly odious, and it's absolutely brilliant seeing their reaction. They are desperate to deny the effectiveness of vaccines and demand that everyone wears ineffective masks, while not even considering wearing effective masks themselves.

The 19th of July can't come soon enough for me; I see this as a huge victory for the moderates over the hysterical extremists.

It is possible to get libertarian views of both left and right, but right now no prominent left wing libertarians exist in our politics (the Lib Dems and the SDLP are close though i think).

While plenty on the right are opposed to restrictions, there are also Government/Johnson "bootlickers" who blindingly agree, and many Tory MPs outside the CRG vote with the Government either blindingly following the whip or they genuinely agree with what's been in place.

 

[3rd rail land]

I would have thought that it will be the employers call on whether people have to go back to the office and how often.

I agree. My employer has delayed re-opening offices in England although you can go to an office now if you have a need to and get authorisation from your team or line manager. I have such permission but haven't needed to go to an office in 2021.
I don't know what the guidance is in Scotland but my employer is also following that.

My employer has a fair amount of staff who are classed as mobile workers, myself included, who usually work from home. The pandemic had no effect on this.

 

[MikeWM]

It is possible to get libertarian views of both left and right, but right now no prominent left wing libertarians exist in our politics (the Lib Dems and the SDLP are close though i think).

Corbyn was fairly good on social libertarianism (which is what I rather like, as opposed to the economic libertarianism favoured by eg. the 'Libertarian' party in the USA) for many years - he voted the 'right way' (in my opinion) on most things for many years - though his views appeared to be diluted by becoming party leader, and of course since then went in entirely the wrong direction on Covid.

The government telling people where they should work should end. It should be up to employees and employers, not the government to decide where people should work.

I'd certainly agree that any changes should be thought through in a measured way, as opposed to being a knee-jerk reaction to a 'crisis' (or indeed the Government trying to avoid fighting too many fires (of their own creation) at once).

 

[Cdd89]

From my perspective I find it highly concerning that Ashworth was on many of the Independent SAGE Zoom calls. He certainly came out with a lot of Independent SAGE lines including “close the borders” and more recently the stuff about “variant factories”.

 

[Jonathan1990]

Speaking as someone who's exempt from wearing face masks I think they should be made optional now. I was on the North York Moors railway a couple of weeks ago and some people took them off when sitting down in the carriage. Other people seem to love wearing the masks. I've had people even have to wear masks within my own home. I'm sure there's no law saying that.

 

[Pete_uk]

Glad there is some light at the end of the tunnel. My mask will be washed and folded away.

Sadly I can see there being 'problems' come the winter though which I would expect the NHS to be geared up for. More hope than expectation though.

I expect there to be the usual 'goverment killing the elderly' mob on social media but the sooner people stop listening to those people on any subject the better.

 

[yorksrob]

From my perspective I find it highly concerning that Ashworth was on many of the Independent SAGE Zoom calls. He certainly came out with a lot of Independent SAGE lines including “close the borders” and more recently the stuff about “variant factories”.

Labour need to be on their guard as Independant SAGE and the like could become their 21st century equivalent to the millitant tendancy.

 

[edwin_m]

Well, on the basis that it’s generally accepted that it’s impossible to eradicate Covid, exactly when do we think it is going to be any better?

The overall mortality (from all causes) this year hasn’t been that much higher than normal year with a middling to bad flu season. And the NHS has had periods where it’s been quieter than usual, largely because it basically became a Covid only service for much of the last year or so. Yet there seems to have been little or no moves to increase capacity and resilience, despite £35billon being squandered on track and trace (which is still next to useless).

It seems to me the tail is beginning to wag the dog: surely there needs to come a point where we recognise that we need adapt the NHS to suit the current reality, rather than restricting society to suit the health service. Perhaps wholesale root and branch reform is needed along the healthcare models adopted in other European countries whether then our centralised mess.

It can only get better by getting to the herd immunity threshold. Clearly we aren't there yet, there are probably 20 million people with no immunity in the UK. My concern is that that's enough to overwhelm the NHS if too many catch it at once. This could still happen if restrictions are relaxed and there is a commitment never to re-impose them.

The NHS can't just be expanded overnight or even in a couple of years. You might persuade Sunak to throw more money and build the facilities quickly, as happened with the Nightingales, but it takes years to train up the staff (and offering a 1% pay rise doesn't help much in attracting new recruits).

I've explained in a previous post why comparisons with flu deaths are totally misleading. Anyone who uses this argument isn't understanding the science.

 

[DelayRepay]

It can only get better by getting to the herd immunity threshold. Clearly we aren't there yet, there are probably 20 million people with no immunity in the UK. My concern is that that's enough to overwhelm the NHS if too many catch it at once. This could still happen if restrictions are relaxed and there is a commitment never to re-impose them.

But those 20 million are made up of:

• children/teenagers, who generally only suffer mild symptoms
• people who cannot have vaccines for medical reasons
• people who have been offered a vaccine but declined it (I know for a few weeks we have a large number waiting for second doses)

The first group don't typically need to go into hospital, the second group are tiny and the third group is quite small and will reduce significantly over the next few weeks as more vaccines are given.

I can see the potential for a large number of infections, but cannot see this translating into significant additional pressure on the NHS.

 

[Yew]

there are probably 20 million people with no immunity in the UK.

Remind me, what demographics are these people in?