Killingworth
Established Member
A nightmare as it might take 3 or 4 years before levels of passenger demand stabilise. They can't easily do that when services have been cut in almost random fashion, compounded by short notice cancellations caused by a variety of factors.I think it was suggested that the cross subsidy isn't necessarily between operations within one train operating company, it is also about overall DfT affordability. So, any surplus paid to the DfT is available to be paid back out as subsidy. If the DfT is paying out subsidy for services that used to pay a surplus, there is less money for paying subsidy for routes that needed a subsidy in the past.
Posters have indicated that the DfT and Treasury are desperate to get the subsidy back to the level they were paying in March 2020, if not less.
I look at the services between Sheffield and Manchester. We received an indicative timetable many months ago based around TPE hourly fast Cleethorpes - Liverpool, EMR hourly fast Norwich/Nottingham - Liverpool and hourly Northern stopping Sheffield- Manchester.
Since that was drawn up the longer term effects of Covid are becoming apparent. Commuting is still massively down. Leisure is up. TPE and EMR struggle to provide a consistent and reliable half hourly fast service with short forms and cancellations added to services still absent from the pre-Covid timetable. Leisure users are quite happy to take longer on cheaper stopping trains.
The indicative timetable had an unwritten caveat. Until the Hope Valley Capacity Scheme is nearing completion in late 2023 it may not be possible to deliver the full services as suggested. The Manchester congestion issues may be resolved from December but there are others still needing resolution. As far as I can see the full suggested improvements to the stopping and fast services may not come until December 2023 at the earliest and more likely May 2024. By then the future travel market may be more clear.
December 2022 is but a resting point on a long journey - one that will depend very much on the public purse.
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