Do you think that the UK switching to electric vehicles is realistic?

[Bletchleyite]

I think the same applies to everyone in a village. I have 3 buses a day but none before 10 or after 5. I have no safe walking route to the main village with shops & no bike parking at destination. I'm on emergency call for work & an elderly relative. I will probably always need a car, but the second one will go as soon as other options are possible which I hope to happen this year.

One thing that might help this sort of situation is for the Government to make the operation of rural volunteer community minibus services easier.

This might include things like:

• Reinstating D1 (101) entitlement for non-profit minibus use under Section 19/23 on all post-1997 licences (they've done B+E already, it's not much of a step to do D1 and C1 (101) as well). You can use 3500kg buses or 9 seaters without but there are so few 3500kg buses, and with economic 9 seaters it's mostly "wheelchair or seats".
• Providing free MiDAS training or similar
• Providing templates and assistance for setting up a suitable organisation
• Providing non-profit access to vehicle acquisition e.g. loans/leasing/maintenance
• Providing an easy online portal for such operations to register local bus routes if they wish to operate that way, with no 56 day requirement
• Providing a booking portal and telephone booking service these services can opt into, and mobile apps to ease operating them

Basically, make it really, really easy for these schemes to be created, safely operated and sustained if there are volunteers to do it.

Think about how the Scout Assocation provides you with the framework and support to create a local youth provision if you want - but a minibus service is far simpler than a multifaceted youth provision!

I have half a feeling that the Dutch Buurtbus very-local services are run on this sort of model.

 

[paul1609]

One thing that might help this sort of situation is for the Government to make the operation of rural volunteer community minibus services easier.

This might include things like:

• Reinstating D1 (101) entitlement for non-profit minibus use under Section 19/23 on all post-1997 licences (they've done B+E already, it's not much of a step to do D1 and C1 (101) as well). You can use 3500kg buses or 9 seaters without but there are so few 3500kg buses, and with economic 9 seaters it's mostly "wheelchair or seats".
• Providing free MiDAS training or similar
• Providing templates and assistance for setting up a suitable organisation
• Providing non-profit access to vehicle acquisition e.g. loans/leasing/maintenance
• Providing an easy online portal for such operations to register local bus routes if they wish to operate that way, with no 56 day requirement
• Providing a booking portal and telephone booking service these services can opt into, and mobile apps to ease operating them

Basically, make it really, really easy for these schemes to be created, safely operated and sustained if there are volunteers to do it.

Think about how the Scout Assocation provides you with the framework and support to create a local youth provision if you want - but a minibus service is far simpler than a multifaceted youth provision!

I have half a feeling that the Dutch Buurtbus very-local services are run on this sort of model.

We already have a very active community transport association with 3 minibuses but there's no way you could transfer all the functions currently carried out by volunteers both in a formal and informal way in their private cars to them they'd be totally overwhelmed.

 

[reddragon]

This works

There are several 'DRT' bus schemes running in the country - that's where you can order a bus using an App on demand, rather than having it scheduled to a timetable. The nice people down at Go Coaches down in Sevenoaks invited me down for the day to try out their service ... and ride on some buses, completely on demand!​

 

[Bletchleyite]

This works

It doesn't. It's utterly useless - it is an expensive (and highly polluting due to using larger vehicles for 1-2 people instead of cars) subsidised taxi scheme, basically, because you almost never get journeys to match up.

The "VIA" company behind most of it must be raking it in and laughing at the Councils funding it.

We already have a very active community transport association with 3 minibuses but there's no way you could transfer all the functions currently carried out by volunteers both in a formal and informal way in their private cars to them they'd be totally overwhelmed.

I'm not talking about community transport in the same way, i.e. what the US might call paratransit. I'm talking about a volunteer group running semi-formal scheduled minibus services in very rural areas. It should carry wheelchairs in the same way a service bus needs to, but the idea is it's a substitute for a "mainline" bus service which is economic, it's not an assisted travel service.

 

[paul1609]

It doesn't. It's utterly useless - it is an expensive (and highly polluting due to using larger vehicles for 1-2 people instead of cars) subsidised taxi scheme, basically, because you almost never get journeys to match up.

The "VIA" company behind most of it must be raking it in and laughing at the Councils funding it.



I'm not talking about community transport in the same way, i.e. what the US might call paratransit. I'm talking about a volunteer group running semi-formal scheduled minibus services in very rural areas. It should carry wheelchairs in the same way a service bus needs to, but the idea is it's a substitute for a "mainline" bus service which is economic, it's not an assisted travel service.

What like this? They are even part of Rye Plusbus http://s314663725.websitehome.co.uk/newryebus/timetable.asp

 

[Bletchleyite]

What like this? They are even part of Rye Plusbus http://s314663725.websitehome.co.uk/newryebus/timetable.asp

Yes, that sort of thing. There are examples of them about, but there'd be more of them if an easier framework was set up by the Government to enable their provision.

As I mentioned a Scout Group is to all intents and purposes a semi independent youth provision, but the way the Scout Association acts as a sort of franchisor/umbrella body makes setting one up much, much easier, as a result of which there are far more Scout Groups than similar independent provisions (though they do exist, very often run by people who have had a falling out with the Scout Association). For instance an easy way to do DBS checks and to get insurance.

There is the CTA but I have the impression that that is a loose umbrella body rather than provider of a solid framework, if you see what I mean.

 

[chocobike]

It doesn't. It's utterly useless - it is an expensive (and highly polluting due to using larger vehicles for 1-2 people instead of cars) subsidised taxi scheme, basically, because you almost never get journeys to match up.

The "VIA" company behind most of it must be raking it in and laughing at the Councils funding it.



I'm not talking about community transport in the same way, i.e. what the US might call paratransit. I'm talking about a volunteer group running semi-formal scheduled minibus services in very rural areas. It should carry wheelchairs in the same way a service bus needs to, but the idea is it's a substitute for a "mainline" bus service which is economic, it's not an assisted travel service.

In fact, I see no reason to transfer the entire country to electronic vehicles.

In the beginning, you need to understand why everyone is so eager to convert as much of "everything" as possible into electrical. Now there are electric bikes, electric cars, electric buses, electric trucks. And that's great. It's beautiful, it's quiet, and electric vehicles emit less harmful waste into the environment. But everything is not so colorful if you go deep.

There are a lot of problems with oil:
1. It is an irretrievable source of energy
2. When it burns, a huge amount of hazardous waste is thrown out.
3. An oil slick can stretch for several kilometers if an oil platform breaks down.

But the main problem with electric cars is lithium-ion batteries. That is just big batteries. And they also need to be charged. And in order to charge them, you need to take energy somewhere. You can take energy in windmills. But what if there is no wind, but you need to recharge? You can take energy from the sun. What if it's cloudy? You can take energy from hydroelectric power plants. And if you are in the village and there is nothing nearby? Therefore, we again come to burning something, and most often it is oil.

There is a compromise that I have heard about, but have not yet read in detail - these are integrated power generation stations. The bottom line is that everything works in a compartment there, and the output even produces fuel that cars will run on. This fuel is hydrogen. It is harmless to the environment. It sounds utopian, but even 30 years ago, electric cars seemed like a utopia. So I believe in such a future, not in the electrolysis of the whole country.

 

[trebor79]

But the main problem with electric cars is lithium-ion batteries. That is just big batteries. And they also need to be charged. And in order to charge them, you need to take energy somewhere. You can take energy in windmills. But what if there is no wind, but you need to recharge? You can take energy from the sun. What if it's cloudy? You can take energy from hydroelectric power plants. And if you are in the village and there is nothing nearby? Therefore, we again come to burning something, and most often it is oil.

What? You've heard of this concept of a "national grid" right? You can take power from wind farms hundreds or thousands of miles away to the village where you plug your car in.
Zero electricity generation in the UK is from oil, other than emergency generators and the like.

There is a compromise that I have heard about, but have not yet read in detail - these are integrated power generation stations. The bottom line is that everything works in a compartment there, and the output even produces fuel that cars will run on. This fuel is hydrogen. It is harmless to the environment. It sounds utopian, but even 30 years ago, electric cars seemed like a utopia. So I believe in such a future, not in the electrolysis of the whole country.

Hydrogen is really expensive to produce, and actually very inefficient as a fuel. If you produce hydrogen by electrolysing water it's a circa 50% efficient process. You have to expend more energy compressing, storing and transporting it, and then your fuel cell is circa 80% efficiency. Overall efficiency of a hydrogen vehicle fuel supply chain is about 35%. With a battery electric vehicle, the battery has a round trip efficiency of about 95%, and grid losses are about 3%.

 

[py_megapixel]

It sounds utopian, but even 30 years ago, electric cars seemed like a utopia. So I believe in such a future, not in the electrolysis of the whole country.

I assume you mean "electrification"? Electrolysis is the process of breaking down ionic compounds by passing a current through them.

 

[reddragon]

But the main problem with electric cars is lithium-ion batteries. That is just big batteries. And they also need to be charged. And in order to charge them, you need to take energy somewhere. You can take energy in windmills. But what if there is no wind, but you need to recharge? You can take energy from the sun. What if it's cloudy? You can take energy from hydroelectric power plants. And if you are in the village and there is nothing nearby? Therefore, we again come to burning something, and most often it is oil.

There is a compromise that I have heard about, but have not yet read in detail - these are integrated power generation stations. The bottom line is that everything works in a compartment there, and the output even produces fuel that cars will run on. This fuel is hydrogen. It is harmless to the environment. It sounds utopian, but even 30 years ago, electric cars seemed like a utopia. So I believe in such a future, not in the electrolysis of the whole country.

Oh dear wrong on so many levels, I just don't know where to start!

 

[AlbertBeale]

I assume you mean "electrification"? Electrolysis is the process of breaking down ionic compounds by passing a current through them.

Maybe electrolysis was meant in the sense of how you produce the hydrogen from water...

 

[Harpers Tate]

.....they also need to be charged. And in order to charge them, you need to take energy somewhere. You can take energy in windmills. But what if there is no wind, but you need to recharge? You can take energy from the sun. What if it's cloudy? You can take energy from hydroelectric power plants. And if you are in the village and there is nothing nearby? Therefore, we again come to burning something, and most often it is oil.

So, I suppose on this basis, if a "solution" isn't 100% then it's utterly useless?

An electric vehicle doesn't care where its fuel comes from. So if (inventing some figures) it's feasible to generate electricity 75% of the time and/or in 75% of places from one or other of these renewables and burning something is therefore only needed 25% of the time, then all other things equal (which they aren't - but just for the sake of illustration) your electric vehicle is only responsible for 25% as much burning. Whereas your traditionally fuelled vehicle requires you to burn something 100% of the time and you can't change that.

Is it the case that saving 75% isn't sufficient and is therefore worthless? I'd have to say, I think not.

 

[trebor79]

So, I suppose on this basis, if a "solution" isn't 100% then it's utterly useless?

An electric vehicle doesn't care where its fuel comes from. So if (inventing some figures) it's feasible to generate electricity 75% of the time and/or in 75% of places from one or other of these renewables and burning something is therefore only needed 25% of the time, then all other things equal (which they aren't - but just for the sake of illustration) your electric vehicle is only responsible for 25% as much burning. Whereas your traditionally fuelled vehicle requires you to burn something 100% of the time and you can't change that.

Is it the case that saving 75% isn't sufficient and is therefore worthless? I'd have to say, I think not.

The figures are even more in favour of the EV because the vehicle is more efficient and uses regenerative braking. That's why they can go 40 miles or more on 10kWh of electricity, roughly equivalent to the energy content of 1 litre petrol.

 

[py_megapixel]

Maybe electrolysis was meant in the sense of how you produce the hydrogen from water...

But I thought they were saying they did believe in that?

 

[MotCO]

Apologies if these comments have been raised before, but I gave not read through all 18 pages
1. If cars are plugged into the grid and pass power back to the grid in periods of high denand, does this wear the batteries out more quickly?
2. Most PHEV vehicles have limited mileage before they run out of juice and the engine takes over. Why can't they have more batteries and a smaller engine such that their battery powered range is greater, and the smaller engine operate at a constant speed (more efficiently) to recharge the batteries rather than to propel the car?

 

[trebor79]

Apologies if these comments have been raised before, but I gave not read through all 18 pages
1. If cars are plugged into the grid and pass power back to the grid in periods of high denand, does this wear the batteries out more quickly?

Yes, but to what extent depends upon the battery chemistry. It may or may not be significant. Personally, it's not something I'd do (but am installing a home battery to do something similar)

2. Most PHEV vehicles have limited mileage before they run out of juice and the engine takes over. Why can't they have more batteries and a smaller engine such that their battery powered range is greater, and the smaller engine operate at a constant speed (more efficiently) to recharge the batteries rather than to propel the car?

BMW tried this with the "range extender" versions of the i3. It didn't sell well and was discontinued. Issues:
Small engine was very noisy
Low power output from the engine, so the car accelerates more slowly and has a lower top speed
More cost and complexity

Reality is it's better/cheaper overall to fit a bigger battery and improve rapid charging speed and availability. i3 can charge at 50kW, some cars now can charge at 300kW - about 15 minutes to go from 10% to 80%.

 

[Bald Rick]

Most PHEV vehicles have limited mileage before they run out of juice and the engine takes over. Why can't they have more batteries and a smaller engine such that their battery powered range is greater, and the smaller engine operate at a constant speed (more efficiently) to recharge the batteries rather than to propel the car?

then you are into the issue of weight. Even a small engine with all the associated gubbins - fuel system (and fuel), cooling system, transmission, exhaust system including after treatment - will weigh over 100kg, sometimes twice that. 100kg of extra battery would buy you another 20-25 kWh, which is nudging another 100 miles of range.

 

[reddragon]

Apologies if these comments have been raised before, but I gave not read through all 18 pages
1. If cars are plugged into the grid and pass power back to the grid in periods of high denand, does this wear the batteries out more quickly?
2. Most PHEV vehicles have limited mileage before they run out of juice and the engine takes over. Why can't they have more batteries and a smaller engine such that their battery powered range is greater, and the smaller engine operate at a constant speed (more efficiently) to recharge the batteries rather than to propel the car?

1 - V2G operation was not found to degrade batteries. Degradation comes from running them very low, under 5% or charging them very full, over 80% should be limited to a need for a long trip. V2G only uses central bands on 30-70% to remove measurable degradation and in reality is quite small, more akin to driving & regen. This is intentional.

2 - Simple answer is weight. All hybrid cars are now dead technology, an auto Betamax


Hydrogen is an idea promoted by the oil/gas industry. It is highly inefficient and gives you a car with less range & more charging anxiety than an EV. They are at least now working out a way for solid state storage which actually works suited to shipping. The Hydrogen simple charges a battery so is a Hydrogen EV hybrid car, so essentially electric but a lot more expensive & a lot more likely to explode!

 

[ashkeba]

Even in urban areas, if you work on an industrial estate on the edge, and even more so if you work shifts, you may well need a car.

Edge industrial estates absolutely must be made accessible by ebike cycleway. Many are, even in the UK, but for really breathtaking ones look at places like Rotterdam Futureland. That is a vast area of massive warehouses and stuff with almost no residences near yet the cycleways see groups form at shift change as people ride into Rotterdam and out to nearby towns and villages.

 

[43301]

Edge industrial estates absolutely must be made accessible by ebike cycleway. Many are, even in the UK, but for really breathtaking ones look at places like Rotterdam Futureland. That is a vast area of massive warehouses and stuff with almost no residences near yet the cycleways see groups form at shift change as people ride into Rotterdam and out to nearby towns and villages.

There's also the safety aspect - if you work on the edge of a large city and getting home requires going through a dodgy area, are you going to want to cycle, especially after a late shift?

 

[The Ham]

There's also the safety aspect - if you work on the edge of a large city and getting home requires going through a dodgy area, are you going to want to cycle, especially after a late shift?

Why not?

Actually on the times I did it I felt safe as it was 4 in the morning and there was no one about, I felt more at risk at 11 at night when there were only a few about.

However even if those on shifts carry on driving at those unusual hours there's still lots of others traveling at peak hours who aren't shift workers or if they are then aren't needing to travel at odd hours that day.

 

[NoRoute]

2. Most PHEV vehicles have limited mileage before they run out of juice and the engine takes over. Why can't they have more batteries and a smaller engine such that their battery powered range is greater, and the smaller engine operate at a constant speed (more efficiently) to recharge the batteries rather than to propel the car?

PHEVs can have more capacity and as the cost of battery capacity has fallen PHEV designs have incorporated bigger batteries. As an example one of the earliest PHEVs was the Prius Plug-in with 4.4kWh, the next version the Prius Prime had 8.9kWh, the RAV4 PHEV which followed has 18.1kWh. Similar thing with other manufacturers, BMW 330e PHEV got a capacity increase, same with Kia eNiro PHEV so it is happening and the electric range is increasing.

With the engine and the drive train, it's a question of whether it's more efficient to have a range extender with the engine driving a generator but no connection to the wheels or drive motor, or whether to have a combined motor-generator connected to the engine and the wheels. There doesn't seem to be a clearly better option, indeed the Vauxhall Ampera PHEV which had the engine driving a generator wasn't very efficient when running on the engine.

 

[jon0844]

The reason I am not keen on a hybrid is that you now have the costs associated with servicing and maintaining an ICE vehicle with the cost of the EV elements (in particular the battery). You also have the extra weight to haul around.

They're fine for those who need that flexibility, such as taxi drivers, and are willing to pay (and even less of an issue if you simply lease the vehicle for 3-4 years so the expensive issues for the years ahead aren't your problem).

 

[reddragon]

The reason I am not keen on a hybrid is that you now have the costs associated with servicing and maintaining an ICE vehicle with the cost of the EV elements (in particular the battery). You also have the extra weight to haul around.

They're fine for those who need that flexibility, such as taxi drivers, and are willing to pay (and even less of an issue if you simply lease the vehicle for 3-4 years so the expensive issues for the years ahead aren't your problem).

What maintenance does a battery with a 100,000 mile 7 year guarantee need? Maybe a coolant change every few years but that's it!

EVs are tyres, washer fluid & wiper blades, that's it normally unless you damage something.

True about hybrids though, still full ICE servicing even if you only use EV mode.

 

[cactustwirly]

What maintenance does a battery with a 100,000 mile 7 year guarantee need? Maybe a coolant change every few years but that's it!

EVs are tyres, washer fluid & wiper blades, that's it normally unless you damage something.

True about hybrids though, still full ICE servicing even if you only use EV mode.

Brakes as well, being so heavy they are likely to chew through discs and pads quickly.

Suspension will need attention after 100k miles as well.

What happens after 7 years and 100k miles? Do you need to spend 1000s on new batteries?

7 years is not old for an ICE car, most will easily see out 15-20 years if looked after properly.

 

[reddragon]

Brakes as well, being so heavy they are likely to chew through discs and pads quickly.

Suspension will need attention after 100k miles as well.

What happens after 7 years and 100k miles? Do you need to spend 1000s on new batteries?

7 years is not old for an ICE car, most will easily see out 15-20 years if looked after properly.

EVs use regen braking so pads last 100-250,000 miles, disks the life of the car unless parked up & left to rust.

EV batteries are lasting 25 years exc Nissan LEAF batteries as they don't have active battery cooling. Battery swaps are easy on those, usually an upgrade from 24/30 to 40 kw

 

[jon0844]

What maintenance does a battery with a 100,000 mile 7 year guarantee need? Maybe a coolant change every few years but that's it!

EVs are tyres, washer fluid & wiper blades, that's it normally unless you damage something.

True about hybrids though, still full ICE servicing even if you only use EV mode.

I know EVs need loads less maintenance, which was really my point (perhaps not clearly made). I meant that obviously those who choose to keep a car for a long time, instead of swapping every few years, will eventually have to address normal battery degradation and potentially issues that happen outside of the generous warranties.

While I am confident batteries will outperform many pessimistic predictions (mostly from those who are against progress), there are going to be some issues - and they could be expensive, especially when car makers don't necessarily want to attempt any sort of servicing or repair and will require a whole new battery.

Perhaps the more costly issues will be from all the complex electronics that may fail and require eye-watering repair bills, even if the actual chipsets (and even firmware) isn't that expensive. So many sensors to facilitate all these cool toys too! But that's not specific to EVs obviously - even ICE cars get toys!

 

[Harpers Tate]

Brakes as well, being so heavy they are likely to chew through discs and pads quickly.

Suspension will need attention after 100k miles as well.

What happens after 7 years and 100k miles? Do you need to spend 1000s on new batteries?

7 years is not old for an ICE car, most will easily see out 15-20 years if looked after properly.

As reddragon says - EVs don't eat brakes at all; on the contrary. Most controlled deceleration is done without using them at all.
And the suggestion that a manufacturer will offer a (in my case 8-year, 125k mile) warranty on a component that will suddenly fail immediately afterward seems flawed. Given that no such estimate is ever precise, it seems more likely that they estimate useful life to be close to double that; if it were any closer, they'd leave themselves open to large volumes of claims for those that were marginally under spec. This is somewhat borne out by the typical real-world experience of high mileage Tesla users.

But yes - at some point most likely WELL beyond 8/125k - parts of the battery pack may need replacing, and it will (at current prices) be costly. Who knows in 8 years' time? In the meantime, you might well have spent >1p/mile on fuel, a relatively small amount on routine servicing, and likely almost nothing on major repairs.

 

[AM9]

As reddragon says - EVs don't eat brakes at all; on the contrary. Most controlled deceleration is done without using them at all.

In addition, most heavy braking on hills and from high speed are almost exclusively using regen. So that leaves slow braking to a standstill, e.g. when in slow traffic or stopping, and of course emegency braking. Maybe most of those continually detracting EVs here are exceptionally heavy-footed drivers. They would do well to improve their driving style irrespective of the vehicles that they drive.

 

[chocobike]

I assume you mean "electrification"? Electrolysis is the process of breaking down ionic compounds by passing a current through them.

Ye, I mean electrification.

Guys, you're so hard on me. I'm just starting to learn all this stuff and I have the exact opinion that I described above. Your comments are logical, I agree with them. But for now, I really don't believe it's possible to electrify the whole UK.