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England's new three-tier lockdown system

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DannyMich2018

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I think and many people do, that for England we need to go back to as close to March 23rd for 2 or 3 weeks. This is getting out of hand, we are nearly at capacity in many hospitals and we are averaging 200 deaths per day now so something needs to be done.
 
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Yew

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I think and many people do, that for England we need to go back to as close to March 23rd for 2 or 3 weeks. This is getting out of hand, we are nearly at capacity in many hospitals and we are averaging 200 deaths per day now so something needs to be done.

That's the single most dangerous phrase that we've had throughout this whole mess; it just encourages politicians to undertake whatever idiot idea comes into their head next
 

Mag_seven

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for England we need to go back to as close to March 23rd for 2 or 3 weeks.

No we really really can't. Apart from the fact we can't afford it all it will do is just "kick the can down the road" and when we come out the cases will just go back up again. We just have to learn to live with this virus (just like we do with all others) by advising the vulnerable to shield where possible and allow the rest of us to assess our own risks and act accordingly. We have an almighty bill to pay off and "on / off" lockdowns are not the way forward.
 
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Yew

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I fail to see how making masks mandatory everywhere is somehow better than Tier 3 restrictions, and indeed the fact it's even being mentioned as an idea is incredibly concerning.

It would also defeat the point of the tiers system - why move to a system like this designed to standardise restrictions if every region negotiates its own tier?
Very much so, it feels like a complete mess.
 

Bantamzen

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I think and many people do, that for England we need to go back to as close to March 23rd for 2 or 3 weeks. This is getting out of hand, we are nearly at capacity in many hospitals and we are averaging 200 deaths per day now so something needs to be done.

Like what, another failed lockdown? The only thing that would have an effect would be people's livelihoods at a time when the furlough scheme is coming to an end, and it's replacement will mean many people getting only 67% of their wages instead of at least 80%. And what about the extra businesses that completely fail as a result, that will lead to even more redundancies to add to the estimated 750K between April September? All those redundancies mean less tax revenue, which means less money available to the Treasury at a time when it needs more.

I'm afraid I'm of the opinion that those still clambering for lockdowns are the ones happy to see other people pay for them.
 

birchesgreen

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A pseudo-lockdown would be pointless. Now a two week total shutdown, with all shops closed, only emergency personnel allowed outdoors might cause an effect but i doubt we'd stand for that kind of thing in this country.
 

duncanp

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The trouble is that 2 or 3 weeks will turn into 2 or 3 months, just like it did at the end of March.

Whilst 200 deaths a day might sound bad, it is nowhere near the number that we saw during the first wave of COVID-19.

The NHS was not overwhelmed then, and there is no reason to suppose that it will be overwhelmed now.

I see that SAGE have been at it again, saying that deaths are forecast to be at 200 per day for several months, and that the second wave will be "more deadly" than the first.

Has anyone questioned the assumptions behind this scaremongering "forecast"? Is this a worse case scenario, or the most likely scenario, and is it any more reliable than the forecast which said that we may see 50,000 cases per day by the middle of October, when it turned out that we saw slightly less than half that figure.

Is anyone else getting sick and tired of SAGE?

I have had it up to here with the their scaremongering.

I see that they are "warning" that the whole of England may need to be in Tier 3 restrictions by the middle of December, thus ruining Christmas for many people and driving the final nail into the coffin of the hospitality sector. On what basis do they issue this "warning" (any figures to back this up, by any chance, apart from last weekend's lottery numbers?) and what right do they have to make such a warning in the first place, given that they are only advisers to the government.

If Boris Johnson was to follow this advice, no doubt Whitty would then come out and say that we need to have a Tier 4, and that we need to stay in Tier 4 until the end of March.

I sincerely hope that MPs exert a greater pressure on the Prime Minister to stand up to what amounts to blatant bullying by SAGE, and I am starting to come round to the opinion that SAGE needs to be disbanded in favour of a committee of scientists, economists, actuaries and psychologists who can advise the government on all aspects of policy in relation to COVID-19, and the consequences of each course of action.
 

Skimpot flyer

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A pseudo-lockdown would be pointless. Now a two week total shutdown, with all shops closed, only emergency personnel allowed outdoors might cause an effect but i doubt we'd stand for that kind of thing in this country.
And how would all those online orders for goods be delivered if Royal Mail staff like myself have to stay home?
 

duncanp

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And how would all those online orders for goods be delivered if Royal Mail staff like myself have to stay home?

What about food shops during this "total shutdown"?

Would they be closed, and if so how do you propose that people get enough food to eat?

And what about the effect on the businesses that are closed and people's mental health, or does that not concern you?
 

Class 33

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So the other day it was reported that many MP's are putting pressure on Johnson for a "road map" out of lockdown and to start easing restrictions by Christmas. And this morning the news that SAGE and many MP's are putting pressure on Johnson to put the entire country into Tier 3 lockdown by mid December! Absolutely unbelievable all this. You just couldn't make it up!
 

Huntergreed

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What about food shops during this "total shutdown"?

Would they be closed, and if so how do you propose that people get enough food to eat?

And what about the effect on the businesses that are closed and people's mental health, or does that not concern you?
Those who promote lockdowns care not about mental health, the economy, other health conditions or even quality of life. The only thing they deem worthy of focusing on is reducing the number of people who are dying with (not necessarily from) the virus. Anything else, deaths from cancer, suicide, heart disease and unemployment/economic collapse are secondary to this, and all money and resources should be focused on reducing the prevalence of the virus, regardless of how much this costs or how damaging it is to society.
 

DustyBin

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The trouble is that 2 or 3 weeks will turn into 2 or 3 months, just like it did at the end of March.

Whilst 200 deaths a day might sound bad, it is nowhere near the number that we saw during the first wave of COVID-19.

The NHS was not overwhelmed then, and there is no reason to suppose that it will be overwhelmed now.

I see that SAGE have been at it again, saying that deaths are forecast to be at 200 per day for several months, and that the second wave will be "more deadly" than the first.

Has anyone questioned the assumptions behind this scaremongering "forecast"? Is this a worse case scenario, or the most likely scenario, and is it any more reliable than the forecast which said that we may see 50,000 cases per day by the middle of October, when it turned out that we saw slightly less than half that figure.

Is anyone else getting sick and tired of SAGE?

I have had it up to here with the their scaremongering.

I see that they are "warning" that the whole of England may need to be in Tier 3 restrictions by the middle of December, thus ruining Christmas for many people and driving the final nail into the coffin of the hospitality sector. On what basis do they issue this "warning" (any figures to back this up, by any chance, apart from last weekend's lottery numbers?) and what right do they have to make such a warning in the first place, given that they are only advisers to the government.

If Boris Johnson was to follow this advice, no doubt Whitty would then come out and say that we need to have a Tier 4, and that we need to stay in Tier 4 until the end of March.

I sincerely hope that MPs exert a greater pressure on the Prime Minister to stand up to what amounts to blatant bullying by SAGE, and I am starting to come round to the opinion that SAGE needs to be disbanded in favour of a committee of scientists, economists, actuaries and psychologists who can advise the government on all aspects of policy in relation to COVID-19, and the consequences of each course of action.

Meanwhile, deaths from flu and pneumonia are unusually low for this time of year (they’ve been low all year actually). I asked the question previously, and I don't know the answer myself, are we starting to incorporate other seasonal respiratory illnesses into the COVID statistics?
 

Crossover

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I see that SAGE have been at it again, saying that deaths are forecast to be at 200 per day for several months, and that the second wave will be "more deadly" than the first.

Yesterdays radio news headlines about declining antibodies has been replaced this morning by something that includes this. Someone on record (I forget who) saying that the second wave could be more deadly than the first and there could be 190,000 deaths between now and early next year and that we are currently tracking towards it.

The other headlines being that:
a. the first round vaccine trials may not be effective for everyone
b. calls from Whitty, Vallance etc to introduce tougher restriction measures (this is where the 190k prediction was thrown in)

Every day is starting to feel like a mental assault!
 

duncanp

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So the other day it was reported that many MP's are putting pressure on Johnson for a "road map" out of lockdown and to start easing restrictions by Christmas. And this morning the news that SAGE and many MP's are putting pressure on Johnson to put the entire country into Tier 3 lockdown by mid December! Absolutely unbelievable all this. You just couldn't make it up!

How long is it going to be before SAGE issue a paper saying that there will be 5,000 deaths per hour unless we spend the next six months under house arrest, only being allowed out to buy essentials for 5 minutes every fortnight?

OK, perhaps that is an exaggeration, but no more than Professor Pantsdown saying back in March that 500,000 people will die without an immediate lockdown.
 

Richard Scott

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Yesterdays radio news headlines about declining antibodies has been replaced this morning by something that includes this. Someone on record (I forget who) saying that the second wave could be more deadly than the first and there could be 190,000 deaths between now and early next year and that we are currently tracking towards it.

The other headlines being that:
a. the first round vaccine trials may not be effective for everyone
b. calls from Whitty, Vallance etc to introduce tougher restriction measures (this is where the 190k prediction was thrown in)

Every day is starting to feel like a mental assault!
And yet no-one seems to challenge these predictions. Based on previous predictions these figures are probably pie in the sky too.
Agree it feels like a continual mental assault. If this was done to anyone in the home or workplace the person doing this would be in court charged with mental cruelty.
 

DustyBin

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Yesterdays radio news headlines about declining antibodies has been replaced this morning by something that includes this. Someone on record (I forget who) saying that the second wave could be more deadly than the first and there could be 190,000 deaths between now and early next year and that we are currently tracking towards it.

The other headlines being that:
a. the first round vaccine trials may not be effective for everyone
b. calls from Whitty, Vallance etc to introduce tougher restriction measures (this is where the 190k prediction was thrown in)

Every day is starting to feel like a mental assault!

I think we’re heading for a lockdown and they’re trying to scare a sufficient proportion of the population into supporting it. Like you I’ve noticed a significant stepping up of ‘project fear’ over the last 48 hours, they’re planning something I’m sure of it.
 

bramling

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That's the single most dangerous phrase that we've had throughout this whole mess; it just encourages politicians to undertake whatever idiot idea comes into their head next

Very much so. It’s this mentality that’s leading to measures being floated that are completely ineffective, for example masks outside now being seriously considered.

We did a “March style” lockdown back in March, and it put us where we are now, so in essence it failed.

It does seem fairly clear the current situation is largely the result of schools and universities. So if there’s any “something” which needs to be done it’s to do some head scratching to see if refinements can be made there. There’s no point in bringing in measures which don’t actually target the problem.

And yet no-one seems to challenge these predictions. Based on previous predictions these figures are probably pie in the sky too.
Agree it feels like a continual mental assault. If this was done to anyone in the home or workplace the person doing this would be in court charged with mental cruelty.

Headline on my local news today “this area is now heading for tier 2, follow the rules and we can stop it”.

I’m completely sick of being told to follow rules.
 

duncanp

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Those who promote lockdowns care not about mental health, the economy, other health conditions or even quality of life. The only thing they deem worthy of focusing on is reducing the number of people who are dying with (not necessarily from) the virus. Anything else, deaths from cancer, suicide, heart disease and unemployment/economic collapse are secondary to this, and all money and resources should be focused on reducing the prevalence of the virus, regardless of how much this costs or how damaging it is to society.

Couldn't agree more.

Nicola Sturgeon is one of the worst.

Fancy "allowing" pubs in the Central Belt of Scotland to open until 6pm, but not letting them serve any alcohol.

You could almost believe it was April Fools Day.

As if the virus cares whether you are drinking Tennents Lager or orange juice and lemonade. (The risk of transmission is the same)
 

Bantamzen

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So the other day it was reported that many MP's are putting pressure on Johnson for a "road map" out of lockdown and to start easing restrictions by Christmas. And this morning the news that SAGE and many MP's are putting pressure on Johnson to put the entire country into Tier 3 lockdown by mid December! Absolutely unbelievable all this. You just couldn't make it up!

SAGE's modus operandi has become very clear to me, kick the problem down the road with a succession of lockdowns until either a vaccine becomes available or the virus reaches the vast majority of us, then claim that it would have been worse based on their dodgy modelling. Frankly a PM & their cabinet worth even a bit of their salt should be putting this lot back into the back room & stop their publicity drive.

I wonder if rubbing shoulders with the Eatonian twits in power has given them ambitions to join the lucrative after-dinner speech circuits?
 

Tomp94

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I think and many people do, that for England we need to go back to as close to March 23rd for 2 or 3 weeks. This is getting out of hand, we are nearly at capacity in many hospitals and we are averaging 200 deaths per day now so something needs to be done.

"We are at capacity in many hospitals"

I don't think so!

For example, my local hospital, currently has 6 covid patients, and I live in an area with a high elderly population. Most hospitals are not overwhelmed, and are no more busy at this time of year than is to be expected.
 

island

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As if the virus cares whether you are drinking Tennents Lager or orange juice and lemonade. (The risk of transmission is the same)
But people drinking lager in large quantities are less likely to observe physical distancing, which is generally recognized as effective against viral spread.
 

52290

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Couldn't agree more.

Nicola Sturgeon is one of the worst.

Fancy "allowing" pubs in the Central Belt of Scotland to open until 6pm, but not letting them serve any alcohol.

You could almost believe it was April Fools Day.

As if the virus cares whether you are drinking Tennents Lager or orange juice and lemonade. (The risk of transmission is the same)
If there was only Tennents lager allowed in pubs then I would immediately become teetotal.
 

Ianno87

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Cotton wool to be added to the list of ‘essential items’.
All newborn children to be wrapped in said product from cradle to socially-distanced grave ?

It's ironic that I can't, for example, take my 4 year old or 2 year old to the local swimming pool and get them confident around water and swimming, as it's lane swimming in the deep pool only. A skill that could literally save their life one day.
 

johntea

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Where I live, West Yorkshire I think we're just past the 2 week point in the 'Tier 2' nonsense, so from what I understand it should now be 'under review' - which it seems to be...with rumours it'll go to Tier 3 rather soon

Does that mean we then have 28 days of Tier 3, then a review and if cases have dropped back to Tier 2 for ANOTHER 28 days...ARGH!
 

MikeWM

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Such as??

I'd stick to the strategy I suggested at the start of August in this thread. It is similar to that suggested in the Great Barrington Declaration (which I have signed).

This week we would prepare to put all of the below in place. Then next Monday all of the below would happen:


- Repeal the Coronavirus Act and all the regulations made under the 1984 Public Health Act.

- Put in place proper mechanisms to allow the vulnerable to shield *if they choose to do so*. Guaranteed free deliveries (food, medicine, etc.) Full furlough scheme for all such people of working age. Proper community support so they don't feel abandoned.

- Protect care homes. No bank staff moving between homes. Proper financial support for staff who have symptoms so they don't have to force themselves into work.

- No mandated social distancing, masks, covid-compliance workplaces or anything else like that. Everything opens and is back to normal. Tell people to wash their hands, stay home if ill, and otherwise use their common sense.

- Massive media and political campaign to communicate the actual risks to each section of society.

- Supply Vitamin D supplements for the entire population - special attention for those who naturally have lower vitamin D levels (eg. the BAME community).

- For people with symptoms - or those living with them - prescribe HCQ, Zinc and the other thing that goes with them.

- For people who are deteriorating, get them proper oxygen etc. treatment *as quickly as possible* - don't wait until they are effectively at death's door before admitting them to hospital. Use the Nightingale hospitals or similar for these so that the regular hospitals can get back to operating as normally as possible. Ventilators should be an absolute last resort.

I think actually this is all the more vital now than it was three months ago. I am increasingly convinced that our current strategy not only has many multiple devastating drawbacks to society and mental and physical health, ***but is bad from an epidemological point of view as well***.

Currently we are exposing everybody pretty much equally to the virus - vulnerable and non-vulnerable alike - and so this is causing *more* serious harm than a strategy like the above, where those able to fight off the virus easily will be more exposed.
 

birchesgreen

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What about food shops during this "total shutdown"?

Would they be closed, and if so how do you propose that people get enough food to eat?

And what about the effect on the businesses that are closed and people's mental health, or does that not concern you?

People get 2 weeks supplies beforehand, with help for those who can't. There wouldn't be any deliveries from couriers for 2 weeks. Basically it would be xmas day for 2 weeks.

I didn't say it would be something that should be done just that would have more effect than the usual lockdown they try which has so many holes in it to be pointless and just causes economic damage for little benefit.
 

Bantamzen

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People get 2 weeks supplies beforehand, with help for those who can't. There wouldn't be any deliveries from couriers for 2 weeks. Basically it would be xmas day for 2 weeks.

I didn't say it would be something that should be done just that would have more effect than the usual lockdown they try which has so many holes in it to be pointless and just causes economic damage for little benefit.

Be careful about putting ideas into people's heads, there are some amongst us who'd go for a full two week lockdown despite the carnage it would cause at supermarkets. Hell someone even suggested compulsory random checks of your food stores to ensure people had two weeks worth of supplies at all times!
 
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