European Sleepers - What routes would be feasible?

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RT4038

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Not really, if we look across the channel the French government is looking at at a rail travel time between 2.5 hours and 4 hours as the threshold for no flogs.
Quite. I think it highly unlikely that London-Glasgow/Edinburgh or London-Newquay flights would be eliminated any time soon. Even Birmingham-Glasgow/Edinburgh are so close that the outer edge of the threshold that they won't be going either.
The faster journey time afforded by these flights is such that people are just not going to accept being forced into much slower trains. However, HS2 , especially in its most extended form, will reduce some of the flight trade to rail, so possibly fewer flights. No help to Sleepers though!
 

AlbertBeale

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Quite. I think it highly unlikely that London-Glasgow/Edinburgh or London-Newquay flights would be eliminated any time soon. Even Birmingham-Glasgow/Edinburgh are so close that the outer edge of the threshold that they won't be going either.
The faster journey time afforded by these flights is such that people are just not going to accept being forced into much slower trains. However, HS2 , especially in its most extended form, will reduce some of the flight trade to rail, so possibly fewer flights. No help to Sleepers though!
Some people seem to think that flying or not can be a simple choice, and that it can be based on the current pricing of flights - given the ecological crisis we're in, neither of these can stay true for much longer.
 

James James

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The title of the thread is 'What routes would be profitable' ? So, on the basis that a route would only be properly profitable if it can generate sufficient to pay for the ongoing provision of rolling stock, then there are probably none. The use of fully deprecated older rolling stock to start a new service is only anything other than a 'flash in the pan' if there is a chance of the service becoming properly profitable. Particularly as there is not really any source (in any number) of fully depreciated stock going forward, once the current stuff becomes uneconomic to maintain.
Theorising is all well and good, but decision makers clearly don't think the same as you, and I assume they have actual data backing their decisions - judging by the announcements in this thread:
 

AlbertBeale

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But they will, sorry.
I suspect a time will come soon when they won't be able to (on account of taxes and/or regulations) - or, if your pessimism about people's sense of responsibility is correct, and more people and more governments don't wake up to the seriousness of the crisis, and act accordingly, human civilisation in a bearable and recognisable form will be down the tubes in a generation or so.

A fatalistic "they will", seemingly not bothered if that is the case, seems to me to be irresponsible. I think that anyone who considers it likely that people aren't going to change their behaviour should look to what they can do to change that prediction.
 

Bald Rick

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I suspect a time will come soon when they won't be able to (on account of taxes and/or regulations) - or, if your pessimism about people's sense of responsibility is correct, and more people and more governments don't wake up to the seriousness of the crisis, and act accordingly, human civilisation in a bearable and recognisable form will be down the tubes in a generation or so.

A fatalistic "they will", seemingly not bothered if that is the case, seems to me to be irresponsible. I think that anyone who considers it likely that people aren't going to change their behaviour should look to what they can do to change that prediction.
You might think it’s irresponsible. I think it’s realisitc. And no amount of hand wringing prose on these pages is going to change that prediction.

Even the Scotland decarbonisation plan, which is rather ambitious, doesn’t foresee banning aviation or making it more expensive. Rather it is making it net zero carbon.
 

AlbertBeale

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You might think it’s irresponsible. I think it’s realisitc. And no amount of hand wringing prose on these pages is going to change that prediction.

Even the Scotland decarbonisation plan, which is rather ambitious, doesn’t foresee banning aviation or making it more expensive. Rather it is making it net zero carbon.
"Even" the Scotland plan - well, I doubt many people would think the Scottish plans match up to what's actually needed! (And net zero carbon aviation is pie in the sky in the foreseeable future.) If it is realistic that people will be irresponsible/selfish/short-sighted, I despair; if your "realism" turns out to be a true prediction, that doesn't stop what happens being irresponsible. (And what you call "hand wringing" is not my main contribution to trying to ensure we continue to have a half-decent planet...!)
 

Peter Kelford

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And I'd also venture to say that aviation's competitivity is not only limited by cost and eco-friendliness but things like convenience (e.g. hop on a train and glide into [INSERT CITY]'s central station a few hours later and disembark like a normal passenger/cross platforms for a train to a smaller place vs. arrive in a faraway airport, take an hour through landing and another hour in a bus/train/taxi/rental car to get to the city centre.
 

Bald Rick

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And I'd also venture to say that aviation's competitivity is not only limited by cost and eco-friendliness but things like convenience (e.g. hop on a train and glide into [INSERT CITY]'s central station a few hours later and disembark like a normal passenger/cross platforms for a train to a smaller place vs. arrive in a faraway airport, take an hour through landing and another hour in a bus/train/taxi/rental car to get to the city centre.
That works both ways. If you live in Haywards Heath and need to get to Edinburgh, you’ll be hard pushed to beat the convenience of Easyjet from Gatwick.
 

popeter45

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so TEE2.0 is being proposed with night routes also being considered
Wonder how many of these would be feasible
would be fun to see an idea of adding London Thru carriages to some of these potentially? (still would need to solve Boarder check issues so dont really see it ever happening) or at least Timetabled with Eurostar connections in mined
 

Bald Rick

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so TEE2.0 is being proposed with night routes also being considered
Wonder how many of these would be feasible
would be fun to see an idea of adding London Thru carriages to some of these potentially? (still would need to solve Boarder check issues so dont really see it ever happening) or at least Timetabled with Eurostar connections in mined
Rather ambitious! Berlin - Barcelona is 15hours minimum, using the existing high speed lines. Hardly a ‘day train’.
 

Bald Rick

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One can suppose that most riders won't use the entire route, but only segments of it.
You can be pretty sure about that!

The issue with such long services, though, is that it fixes the times to an early start / late finish, which fixes the timings for all other city pairs, which may not be the best commercially.
 

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