First Group: General Discussion

[TheGrandWazoo]

Sale completion and increase in proposed return of value

https://otp.tools.investis.com/generic/regulatory-story.aspx?newsid=1493477&cid=858




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27 July 2021

Mr Gregory is stepping down as Chief Executive at the AGM with the Chairman doing his duties in the interim:-

https://www.firstgroupplc.com/investors/results-centre.aspx



Regarding Greyhound:-



From the conference call with analysts today, First bus are buying an unspecified number of diesel buses this current financial year before they go all zero emission purchases next financial year.

As you've merged this news with your last post, this might have escaped notice of others

 

[Jordan Adam]

From the conference call with analysts today, First bus are buying an unspecified number of diesel buses this current financial year before they go all zero emission purchases next financial year.

This shouldn't come as much surprise, especially given the lack of new diesel buses (specifically single deckers) for some areas in the past few years.

 

[overthewater]

Why is it an unspecified number? is it possible it could increase if need be this year? Which areas are most likely to get these?

 

[Volvodart]

They just said there were diesels coming this financial year for the final time. The only numbers mentioned were the 148 electric buses coming to Glasgow in the next couple of years.

 

[Blindtraveler]

I think that the reason they're not specifying how many diesels they're buying is because it might be quite a large order. Anything that cannot be brought up to Euro 6 standard must surely go in the not too distant as most areas seem to be demanding u05 or euro-6 now for any sort of town or interurban work

 

[Volvodart]

At least some will be the buses supposed to be coming during the last financial year but were deferred until this year.

 

[TheGrandWazoo]

This shouldn't come as much surprise, especially given the lack of new diesel buses (specifically single deckers) for some areas in the past few years.

To be honest, they're just saying what we all know. There's a massive upheaval in the industry with Covid and other threats.

Why is it an unspecified number? is it possible it could increase if need be this year? Which areas are most likely to get these?

Perhaps it's because there's a real uncertainty as to how much the bus industry will bounce back and that will impact not only the finances to pay for them but also the requirement to replace if a number are simply going to be withdrawn without replacement.

If the past is any guide, you would be looking at those places that a) aren't expecting alternative fuel vehicles, such as Glasgow, b) have partnerships to fulfil (e.g. Leeds), and c) may also have other considerations such as Park and Ride or other contracts. Don't know the specifics of the Norwich funding etc.

What you're unlikely to see is much in general fleet replacement, except the odd flagship route such as the Eastern Counties Excel replacement in 2020, but a batch of e200s sent to Midland Bluebird or Hampshire just to spread the love around..... nope.

They just said there were diesels coming this financial year for the final time. The only numbers mentioned were the 148 electric buses coming to Glasgow in the next couple of years.

Indeed.

I think that the reason they're not specifying how many diesels they're buying is because it might be quite a large order. Anything that cannot be brought up to Euro 6 standard must surely go in the not too distant as most areas seem to be demanding u05 or euro-6 now for any sort of town or interurban work

There aren't that many that are outside of those parameters and those that are.... well, there are plenty of homes where they can still go so think you'll still have B7TLs being used in Cornwall, Essex or Suffolk for a time to come.

 

[oldman]

They just said there were diesels coming this financial year for the final time.

The text says they will not purchase further diesel buses after December 2022, which takes them into the following financial year.

 

[Volvodart]

I reported what was said in the analysts' presentation.

 

[cnjb8]

I think Essex and Eastern Counties have the lowest fleet age average, thanks to the loads of 2005 B7RLEs and ancient ex London Presidents respectively. Hopefully these areas get new buses, especially Norwich. South West and Scotland East are quite low too, but that’s because of their MMCs being on loan to SPS and the old Bright Bus Tour vehicles respectively

 

[Robertj21a]

I think Essex and Eastern Counties have the lowest fleet age average, thanks to the loads of 2005 B7RLEs and ancient ex London Presidents respectively. Hopefully these areas get new buses, especially Norwich. South West and Scotland East are quite low too, but that’s because of their MMCs being on loan to SPS and the old Bright Bus Tour vehicles respectively

Just because those areas have fairly aged fleets it doesn't follow that any brand new buses will go there - it's far more likely that the new ones will go to the big cities and these other areas will get their castoffs.

 

[overthewater]

The only routes that could get new stock in the Scotland East area is either 51/52 which does rather well OR the X38; its now mainly using 15 year old B7RLE, ( which if they had a nice refurb could have extended their life by years) but I would say now they need new stock. The Streetlites are 6 years old and are better off doing other routes, as par right now.

 

[Goldfish62]

I think Essex and Eastern Counties have the lowest fleet age average, thanks to the loads of 2005 B7RLEs and ancient ex London Presidents respectively. Hopefully these areas get new buses, especially Norwich. South West and Scotland East are quite low too, but that’s because of their MMCs being on loan to SPS and the old Bright Bus Tour vehicles respectively

You mean they have the highest average age, not the lowest.

The loan of the MMCs from First South West to SPS finishes shortly.

 

[Blindtraveler]

I think first would be wise to invest in the ex38 up here as should by any very very slim and I know it is very very slim chance that Lothian or indeed somebody else suddenly decide to have another crack post pandemic at the the kirkliston linlithgow and possibly on to Falkirk flow then an order of new you so efficiently powerful and internally hi-spec buses for that route would surely put them off for good and secure first position as king of the road on that route

I should imagine there's quite a few passengers and more than the odd driver glad that the six-year-old Wrights are working elsewhere, in my view which admittedly counts for Lidl they were very unsuited to that route from day one

 

[TheGrandWazoo]

Just because those areas have fairly aged fleets it doesn't follow that any brand new buses will go there - it's far more likely that the new ones will go to the big cities and these other areas will get their castoffs.

Exactly - First will target their investment into those areas where they have commitments such as in Leeds, Glasgow etc. First Eastern Counties may get some on account of the partnership with Norfolk CC to obtain a load of government cash but can't see much heading to Essex. Suspect there may be a few cascades to be had.

 

[Jordan Adam]

The only routes that could get new stock in the Scotland East area is either 51/52 which does rather well OR the X38; its now mainly using 15 year old B7RLE, ( which if they had a nice refurb could have extended their life by years) but I would say now they need new stock. The Streetlites are 6 years old and are better off doing other routes, as par right now.

I think first would be wise to invest in the ex38 up here as should by any very very slim and I know it is very very slim chance that Lothian or indeed somebody else suddenly decide to have another crack post pandemic at the the kirkliston linlithgow and possibly on to Falkirk flow then an order of new you so efficiently powerful and internally hi-spec buses for that route would surely put them off for good and secure first position as king of the road on that route

The case for the X38 should be pretty strong, it's historically had new vehicles every 6-7 years so would be due some new vehicles soon regardless. The fact no buses have been route branded for it under the new livery is promising, the existing Streetlites could easily be moved to replace some of the older Scanias. As good as the B7RLEs are they are showing their age. And for a flagship cross country route 14 year old vehicles is just not acceptable.

Exactly - First will target their investment into those areas where they have commitments such as in Leeds, Glasgow etc. First Eastern Counties may get some on account of the partnership with Norfolk CC to obtain a load of government cash but can't see much heading to Essex. Suspect there may be a few cascades to be had.

I can see Aberdeen getting it's share given they're proposing to introduce an LEZ from next year and less than 1/6th of the current fleet meets Euro 6. Obviously the Euro5 E300s and Streetlites which make up about 1/3rd of the fleet can easily be upgraded to meet Euro6 but then you still have 25 Enviro500s, 9 Citaros and 30 B7RLEs which only meet Euro 4 and for the B7RLEs particularly i can't see the case for LEZ conversions being justified when the bulk of them will be over 15 years old by the time LEZ comes in.

 

[DragonEast]

Exactly - First will target their investment into those areas where they have commitments such as in Leeds, Glasgow etc. First Eastern Counties may get some on account of the partnership with Norfolk CC to obtain a load of government cash but can't see much heading to Essex. Suspect there may be a few cascades to be had.

Exactly. The point I've been trying to make for years. Essex's income is completely wiped out by its exorbitant costs, and there is no case for investment (state or private). No one has ever come up with a viable way for them to increase income or reduce costs, just meaningless platitudes- there must be a way. Sometimes there isn't, or no business would ever fail!
The answer is - as has happened to some degree, but not far or fast enough, to split their "network" (a misnomer, if there ever was one) between the competition and spread the risk. It works everywhere else in the northern home counties. Currently take every hopeless route, put them all together, and you've pretty well got First Essex. Hopefully Gregory is the last of the "size is everything/more must always be better" fraternity that have for so long held sway at First.

The present First Essex mess is unfair on both staff, who are faced with an all but impossible job, and the passengers, often in despair. No wonder no one talks about First (or Wirst as they're known locally) Essex. There is nothing to be said.

 

[cnjb8]

You mean they have the highest average age, not the lowest.

The loan of the MMCs from First South West to SPS finishes shortly.

Yes I did

There was something about Norwich getting funding for new buses or something like that a few years ago, can’t remember now

 

[TheGrandWazoo]

Hopefully Gregory is the last of the "size is everything/more must always be better" fraternity that have for so long held sway at First.

This is Matthew Gregory who has just sold off half of the business (Transit and Student) and is busy downsizing Greyhound to offload it?

Don't let the facts get in the way of a rant

Yes I did

There was something about Norwich getting funding for new buses or something like that a few years ago, can’t remember now

Indeed - Norfolk CC secured funding for various improvements with FEC also coming to the party as in this article https://www.norfolk.gov.uk/news/2020/09/councils-secure-59-million-for-sustainable-transport about the award of £59m in various improvements to the road network. More info on what they plan to do in terms of revised road schemes etc is contained here https://www.norfolk.gov.uk/roads-an...ment-projects/transforming-cities-application

The most telling quote for this forum is on the first article viz:

Steve Wickers, Managing Director for First Eastern Counties Buses, said, “We are delighted with the news of the award for Norwich from the Transforming Cities Fund, and would like to congratulate Norfolk County Council and all other stakeholders who have been involved in the process, for their success in putting together a bid that has been identified as being capable of bringing really positive change to sustainable transport across the city.

“The dynamic infrastructure projects involved will result in reduced congestion and reduced journey times for bus passengers, as well as improvements in frequency of many core services and air quality; the latter in part by our partnership commitment to an £18m investment in a combination of brand new and refurbished buses which will form a completely revitalised fleet for our operations across the city.”

It may be that this will see the replacement of the Eclipses and the elderly Tridents and B7TLs plus the refurbishment of the B9s, with the Streetlites cascaded out to Lowestoft/Yarmouth to replace fleet there.

The one thing I've not seen is timescales for this and it may not be immediate so hence why they've been painting Tridents that you'd expect to be gone sooner rather than later

 

[M803UYA]

Exactly. The point I've been trying to make for years. Essex's income is completely wiped out by its exorbitant costs, and there is no case for investment (state or private). No one has ever come up with a viable way for them to increase income or reduce costs, just meaningless platitudes- there must be a way. Sometimes there isn't, or no business would ever fail!
The answer is - as has happened to some degree, but not far or fast enough, to split their "network" (a misnomer, if there ever was one) between the competition and spread the risk. It works everywhere else in the northern home counties. Currently take every hopeless route, put them all together, and you've pretty well got First Essex. Hopefully Gregory is the last of the "size is everything/more must always be better" fraternity that have for so long held sway at First.

The present First Essex mess is unfair on both staff, who are faced with an all but impossible job, and the passengers, often in despair. No wonder no one talks about First (or Wirst as they're known locally) Essex. There is nothing to be said.

In First Essex's case, it might help their profit margins if they didn't consistently bid below cost on tenders, chasing turnover all the time. They need to take a long hard look at their network and ask themselves what they want to be as a business, and leave marginal stuff to other companies who don't have the high cost base.

 

[TheGrandWazoo]

In First Essex's case, it might help their profit margins if they didn't consistently bid below cost on tenders, chasing turnover all the time. They need to take a long hard look at their network and ask themselves what they want to be as a business, and leave marginal stuff to other companies who don't have the high cost base.

Tbf, they've walked away from Clacton and much of North/Mid Essex. The issues are more fundamental with an overly complex network that bakes in unreliability, and doesn't really reflect the realities of day. I don't know how you market such services when they have welded routes together and they serve different markets.

All this whilst faffing about with heritage liveries that a few dozen veg will appreciate but have no relevance to most of the public.

 

[M803UYA]

Tbf, they've walked away from Clacton and much of North/Mid Essex. The issues are more fundamental with an overly complex network that bakes in unreliability, and doesn't really reflect the realities of day. I don't know how you market such services when they have welded routes together and they serve different markets.

All this whilst faffing about with heritage liveries that a few dozen veg will appreciate but have no relevance to most of the public.

When I worked at Arriva we were a little shocked that they won marginal tenders in Colchester by going below cost. We had chopped a fair amount off our own bid as I made the point we should be providing the peripheral services on a commercial basis given the competitive situation there and why did we need a tender. Such thoughts were a little strange to the upper management, obviously.
I've never seen this 'need' to have heritage liveries to appease some veg. You should have a consistent brand and standard of service you promote.
I guess in First Essex's case the brand and standard is geriatric handed down buses in any old livery......

 

[TheGrandWazoo]

When I worked at Arriva we were a little shocked that they won marginal tenders in Colchester by going below cost. We had chopped a fair amount off our own bid as I made the point we should be providing the peripheral services on a commercial basis given the competitive situation there and why did we need a tender. Such thoughts were a little strange to the upper management, obviously.
I've never seen this 'need' to have heritage liveries to appease some veg. You should have a consistent brand and standard of service you promote.
I guess in First Essex's case the brand and standard is geriatric handed down buses in any old livery......

Hmmm....wonder if that pricing strategy was to try to stifle Arriva (and encourage them to leave town?)

Cascaded vehicles need not look as dowdy as First Essex - see Kernow - but hey, they've got a B9 with Eastern National livery including depot plates..... I think they have bigger fish to fry.

 

[Trainfan061193]

I think Essex and Eastern Counties have the lowest fleet age average, thanks to the loads of 2005 B7RLEs and ancient ex London Presidents respectively. Hopefully these areas get new buses, especially Norwich. South West and Scotland East are quite low too, but that’s because of their MMCs being on loan to SPS and the old Bright Bus Tour vehicles respectively

Just like what @Goldfish62 said the MMCs will be returning back to Cornwall soon as now they’ve disposed most of the elderly temporary fleet.

 

[cnjb8]

Just like what @Goldfish62 said the MMCs will be returning back to Cornwall soon as now they’ve disposed most of the elderly temporary fleet.

They said that after what you quoted though

 

[M803UYA]

Hmmm....wonder if that pricing strategy was to try to stifle Arriva (and encourage them to leave town?)

Cascaded vehicles need not look as dowdy as First Essex - see Kernow - but hey, they've got a B9 with Eastern National livery including depot plates..... I think they have bigger fish to fry.

Entirely possible. First's mindset in Essex wasn't what I was accustomed to - traditionally their position on competition to do nothing and let the thing die a slow death, but in Essex they stood their corner.
In order for First Essex to massively improve their branding and standards they need to revisit how the operation functions. If they don't have the backing of all the people working there, any new initiative will only be partially successful. You can have route branding for instance, but if the controllers consider any functioning bus will suffice for the morning run out, then route branding is pointless.
Quite how you reverse that mindset I'm not sure - it is notable that First subsidiaries headed up by long serving First employees (pre Giles Fearnley) are the ones who aren't innovating and thus seeing their businesses stagnate. The innovation might not necessarily result in increased profits, but some of that will work.
Perhaps they need to ditch the 'First' identity completely and go for a new brand?
As you correctly point out, a Volvo B9TL in traditional Eastern National livery with depot plates means absolutely nothing to the customers - they want a clean, tidy bus that doesn't look like it's just come out of a war zone. They want it to turn up when the timetable says it will and they want it to tell you where it's going. None of those things are particularly hard, but it does rely on a willingness to do the job properly.

 

[TheGrandWazoo]

Entirely possible. First's mindset in Essex wasn't what I was accustomed to - traditionally their position on competition to do nothing and let the thing die a slow death, but in Essex they stood their corner.
In order for First Essex to massively improve their branding and standards they need to revisit how the operation functions. If they don't have the backing of all the people working there, any new initiative will only be partially successful. You can have route branding for instance, but if the controllers consider any functioning bus will suffice for the morning run out, then route branding is pointless.
Quite how you reverse that mindset I'm not sure - it is notable that First subsidiaries headed up by long serving First employees (pre Giles Fearnley) are the ones who aren't innovating and thus seeing their businesses stagnate. The innovation might not necessarily result in increased profits, but some of that will work.
Perhaps they need to ditch the 'First' identity completely and go for a new brand?
As you correctly point out, a Volvo B9TL in traditional Eastern National livery with depot plates means absolutely nothing to the customers - they want a clean, tidy bus that doesn't look like it's just come out of a war zone. They want it to turn up when the timetable says it will and they want it to tell you where it's going. None of those things are particularly hard, but it does rely on a willingness to do the job properly.

A visit to First Essex is very much on my "to do" list so this is very much a view from afar.

However, the route networks seem overly complex. I've used this examples before with the Galleywood to Hospital services in Chelmsford being 6 bph but 2 extending to Braintree and 1 to Stansted. That seems like clever use of resources but means a potential disaster for service reliability as you have to traverse the centre of Chelmsford. I might add that you have similar examples of very long services, bolted together, that must be murder to maintain in the glue pot conditions of Essex traffic, such as the 100. Then there's the endless array of service variations so that South Woodham Ferrers (nominally served by two services) has 7 service numbers. The 71 from Chelmsford to Colchester has six variations. It's bewildering, and yes, you're absolutely right that before they embark on branding, they have to get the operational nuts and bolts sorted. You cannot market an inherently poor product. I don't hold with the view that it's beyond salvation; we thought that of First as a whole, and most definitely, the First South West business. It takes good management, a lot of hard work, imagination and energy, and it helps if the local authority is on board too.

On the wider point, again I agree with you. One of the aspects of the decentralisation of First Bus and giving greater autonomy to local managers is that it has exposed those OpCos whose management doesn't appear to have the requisite skills and entrepreneurial spirit. To be honest, that was one of the great successes of Stagecoach in that you had the corporate umbrella and purchasing power, and yes, it was a very dull, standardised fleet but you also had managers with the freedom to innovate. In First (and now Arriva), there was/is the central diktat culture and that meant that you were very much reduced to turning the handle of the machine.

I think Essex and Eastern Counties have the lowest fleet age average, thanks to the loads of 2005 B7RLEs and ancient ex London Presidents respectively. Hopefully these areas get new buses, especially Norwich. South West and Scotland East are quite low too, but that’s because of their MMCs being on loan to SPS and the old Bright Bus Tour vehicles respectively

In terms of people speculating on new vehicle investment, it's probably a good indicator to look at the investment in the last few years (i.e. once the 2012-2015 sprint for PSVAR compliance had died down) and see where it's gone. IIRC, the main beneficiaries have been:

Leeds - First have a commitment (not yet fulfilled) for 284 new vehicles as part of a partnership with WYPTA and linked to new bus priorities etc
Glasgow - there is the requirement to meet a large Clean Air Zone and they have also taken advantage of various Green Bus funding to support this, plus an upgrade to the Airport service
Aberdeen - new Hydrogen vehicles again with a funding element from government
Bristol - First introduced new vehicles as operator of the metrobus scheme AND also receiving funding for the introduction of a large fleet of CNG buses and associated infrastructure, as well as new vehicles for the Airport and Wessex Water contracts
Hampshire - First introduced new vehicles on the Eclipse and Star operations to satisfy LA contractual partnerships

There has been some investment in premium routes that are commercial, I think (e.g. Eastern Counties Excel, Berkshire RailAir), and it's not an exhaustive list of every new vehicle they've received in the last 3-4 years as they'll be the odd P&R, Airport or contract service. Other than Kernow, I'm struggling to think of much "standard fleet replacement" for want of a better phrase (and arguably, Kernow was influenced by the council's ministrations with some being funded by them and transferring to Go Ahead).

 

[smtglasgow]

One operating company that seems to get a bit overlooked is Cymru. They seem to turn in a decent profit most years, but haven’t seen any real investment since the 2012-14 splurge. I know next to nothing about them, so I’ve no idea how they are achieving the results they do, but you’d think they must be in line for *something* new?

On another note, with Glasgow receiving a lot of new electric vehicles, what are the chances that some fairly new diesel buses will be cascaded out – might help some of the weaker parts of the empire.

 

[On the Buses]

Rec

A visit to First Essex is very much on my "to do" list so this is very much a view from afar.

However, the route networks seem overly complex. I've used this examples before with the Galleywood to Hospital services in Chelmsford being 6 bph but 2 extending to Braintree and 1 to Stansted. That seems like clever use of resources but means a potential disaster for service reliability as you have to traverse the centre of Chelmsford. I might add that you have similar examples of very long services, bolted together, that must be murder to maintain in the glue pot conditions of Essex traffic, such as the 100. Then there's the endless array of service variations so that South Woodham Ferrers (nominally served by two services) has 7 service numbers. The 71 from Chelmsford to Colchester has six variations. It's bewildering, and yes, you're absolutely right that before they embark on branding, they have to get the operational nuts and bolts sorted. You cannot market an inherently poor product. I don't hold with the view that it's beyond salvation; we thought that of First as a whole, and most definitely, the First South West business. It takes good management, a lot of hard work, imagination and energy, and it helps if the local authority is on board too.

On the wider point, again I agree with you. One of the aspects of the decentralisation of First Bus and giving greater autonomy to local managers is that it has exposed those OpCos whose management doesn't appear to have the requisite skills and entrepreneurial spirit. To be honest, that was one of the great successes of Stagecoach in that you had the corporate umbrella and purchasing power, and yes, it was a very dull, standardised fleet but you also had managers with the freedom to innovate. In First (and now Arriva), there was/is the central diktat culture and that meant that you were very much reduced to turning the handle of the machine.



In terms of people speculating on new vehicle investment, it's probably a good indicator to look at the investment in the last few years (i.e. once the 2012-2015 sprint for PSVAR compliance had died down) and see where it's gone. IIRC, the main beneficiaries have been:

Leeds - First have a commitment (not yet fulfilled) for 284 new vehicles as part of a partnership with WYPTA and linked to new bus priorities etc
Glasgow - there is the requirement to meet a large Clean Air Zone and they have also taken advantage of various Green Bus funding to support this, plus an upgrade to the Airport service
Aberdeen - new Hydrogen vehicles again with a funding element from government
Bristol - First introduced new vehicles as operator of the metrobus scheme AND also receiving funding for the introduction of a large fleet of CNG buses and associated infrastructure, as well as new vehicles for the Airport and Wessex Water contracts
Hampshire - First introduced new vehicles on the Eclipse and Star operations to satisfy LA contractual partnerships

There has been some investment in premium routes that are commercial, I think (e.g. Eastern Counties Excel, Berkshire RailAir), and it's not an exhaustive list of every new vehicle they've received in the last 3-4 years as they'll be the odd P&R, Airport or contract service. Other than Kernow, I'm struggling to think of much "standard fleet replacement" for want of a better phrase (and arguably, Kernow was influenced by the council's ministrations with some being funded by them and transferring to Go Ahead).

Entirely possible. First's mindset in Essex wasn't what I was accustomed to - traditionally their position on competition to do nothing and let the thing die a slow death, but in Essex they stood their corner.
In order for First Essex to massively improve their branding and standards they need to revisit how the operation functions. If they don't have the backing of all the people working there, any new initiative will only be partially successful. You can have route branding for instance, but if the controllers consider any functioning bus will suffice for the morning run out, then route branding is pointless.
Quite how you reverse that mindset I'm not sure - it is notable that First subsidiaries headed up by long serving First employees (pre Giles Fearnley) are the ones who aren't innovating and thus seeing their businesses stagnate. The innovation might not necessarily result in increased profits, but some of that will work.
Perhaps they need to ditch the 'First' identity completely and go for a new brand?
As you correctly point out, a Volvo B9TL in traditional Eastern National livery with depot plates means absolutely nothing to the customers - they want a clean, tidy bus that doesn't look like it's just come out of a war zone. They want it to turn up when the timetable says it will and they want it to tell you where it's going. None of those things are particularly hard, but it does rely on a willingness to do the job properly.

Essex has a new MD and new Commercial Manager. Give them a chance

 

[Adtrainsam]

A visit to First Essex is very much on my "to do" list so this is very much a view from afar.

However, the route networks seem overly complex. I've used this examples before with the Galleywood to Hospital services in Chelmsford being 6 bph but 2 extending to Braintree and 1 to Stansted. That seems like clever use of resources but means a potential disaster for service reliability as you have to traverse the centre of Chelmsford. I might add that you have similar examples of very long services, bolted together, that must be murder to maintain in the glue pot conditions of Essex traffic, such as the 100. Then there's the endless array of service variations so that South Woodham Ferrers (nominally served by two services) has 7 service numbers. The 71 from Chelmsford to Colchester has six variations. It's bewildering, and yes, you're absolutely right that before they embark on branding, they have to get the operational nuts and bolts sorted. You cannot market an inherently poor product. I don't hold with the view that it's beyond salvation; we thought that of First as a whole, and most definitely, the First South West business. It takes good management, a lot of hard work, imagination and energy, and it helps if the local authority is on board too.

From a local perspective, this is exactly spot on. Even as an enthusiast and a regular on the 71 group of services, I can just about get my head around them. How is the average punter meant to understand them? The "overly complex" network is not helped by Chelmsford's notorious traffic congestion, which impacts heavily on the reliability of such services. The unpredictable nature of traffic congestion means one day you may have buses waiting time to prevent early running and the next, you have buses running with a half hour delay. It's not uncommon for services to take 25 minutes to travel between the Bus Station and the Army & Nay Roundabout. This is made worse by the questionable interworking patterns which means routes with little in common incur similar knock-on delays. There are far too many to name of, take a look at this example, where this bus runs onto no less than 6 different routes through the day.

https://bustimes.org/vehicles/14878?date=2021-07-25#

How is the unpredictable nature of buses, meant to attract the car loving population of Essex when they could be sat in the same traffic in a car without having to faff about with the bus? The fleet age and lack of modern features (USB charging, free Wifi etc.) doesn't give any incentive to travel by bus, before mentioning the pricey fares on many of these routes.

Perhaps they need to ditch the 'First' identity completely and go for a new brand?
As you correctly point out, a Volvo B9TL in traditional Eastern National livery with depot plates means absolutely nothing to the customers - they want a clean, tidy bus that doesn't look like it's just come out of a war zone. They want it to turn up when the timetable says it will and they want it to tell you where it's going. None of those things are particularly hard, but it does rely on a willingness to do the job properly.

They have started painting some of their vehicles in a smart 3 tone green livery. It may look fresh and different from the outside, but it won't take much for regular passengers to realise it's the same, tired product just with a different coat of paint. Some of those "freshly painted" vehicles still have adverts for an old route brand (replaced by Essex Airlink) all over the place!

Flickr Search — “AU58FFW or "AU58 FFW" or First 69433”

www.flickr.com

P.S I realise this thread is getting a bit Essex heavy. Maybe time for a seperate thread?