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Flixbus Discussion

Bletchleyite

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Does selling tickets for the Stagecoach Jet 747 service not seem odd, given Stagecoach-owned Megabus are presumably one of their main competitors? In fact, it looks like Megabus already sells tickets for that service...

Large businesses don't work like that. If co-operating with a competitor makes them more money, they'll do it.
 
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cnjb8

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I did the first departure on the 041 route from Bristol to London last Thursday (15th April). The 0600 departure from Bristol Bond Street to London. The vehicle was YJ67CZX of Turners (Van- Hool) and there were two drivers working the service. I had paid extra to reserve a front seat but upon boarding the seats were blocked off and one of the drivers advised me the seats were unavailable for passenger use due to Covid. However a few minutes later they told me I could sit there once we reached UWE. A family of 3 boarded with me at Bristol and two passengers boarded at UWE. They were seemingly stood on the wrong side of the road as when we passed the first stop before going round the roundabout they ran after the vehicle waving their hands. No passengers on for Hammersmith so we bypassed the stop and went straight to London Victoria.

Had the same coach on the way back for the 1800 departure from London and this time sat on the back seat (which I'd selected in my seat reservation). There were probably about 7 other passengers on board and whilst the seating plan suggested the seats in front and to the side of me were occupied, everybody spread out. Nobody was getting off at UWE so we ran straight to Bristol.

I was really impressed with the coach but the one let down was the lack of charging points. Hopefully the vehicles will be retrofitted with these at some point.
I think YJ67CZX used to be a demo so that may explain the lack of charging points.
 

dan5324

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Is that timing realistically achievable though?
National Express (NatEx) give us 1 hour 5 minutes to do that journey. On most days you can do it in 50 minutes sometimes a little less. Definitely realistic.

This is what’s led to the price war between NatEx and Flixbus. Tickets on NatEx are going for just 90p. It's hard to see how any profit is being made even though services are full and duplicates required.
 
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markymark2000

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Nat ex give us 1 hour 5 minutes to do that journey. On most days you can do it in 50 minutes sometimes a little less. Definitely realistic.

This has what’s led to the price war between nat ex and flixbus. Tickets on nat ex going for just 90p. Hard to see how any profit is being made even though services are full with dupes required.
Is NX selling all tickets for 90p though or is it demand priced with only a few 90p tickets sold and then it starts rising the closer to departure and the more people who book?
 

extendedpaul

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My son travelled London to Cardiff Saturday and back Sunday with National Express, total cost £2.80 including the £1 booking fee.

More than half the seats were occupied on both journeys, there were duplicate coaches both ways and the services were shown as fully booked when I checked on Friday. As I type this 90p seats are still available for journeys on that route starting in under six hours.

This is likely to continue for another month as Flixbus minimums go up to £3.99 at the end of May for the first three seats sold, and then £6.99, with increased services. That's on the Cardiff to London route anyway.

Megabus have apparently chosen not to price match and are currently still charging £9.88 minimum with generally longer journey times.
 

dan5324

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Flixbus think they can out price National Express (Nat Ex) and become dominant. Nat Ex think they can squeeze out Flixbus by offering even lower prices and increased capacity. It's gonna be interesting to see who comes out on top. I do know though that Nat Ex coach division is not in a healthy place right now.

The majority of coach income came from airport services. These are basically non existent at present, so they have to somehow make profit from generally unprofitable cross country services when capacity is reduced. Plus fares greatly cut to basically nothing to try and see of Flixbus.

It's interesting seeing many route requests on Twitter. Little do people know a significant amount of routes will NOT be returning. The network has to be profitable. No longer can they run once a day services that take twelve hours that go from a to b via c z y x. Those days are gone. Possibly forever.
 
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Haru

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Spotted a Turners Van Hool in overall green flix livery yesterday in Bristol, think reg was YJ19 BBN? Are flix leasing coaches to operators?
 

dan5324

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Spotted a Turners Van Hool in overall green flix livery yesterday in Bristol, think reg was YJ19 BBN? Are flix leasing coaches to operators?
Flixbus don’t run many, if any services themselves. They get third party operators to do it. A bit like a pound shop National Express tbh. Whippets is one of the operators.
 
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woodhouse122

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Off to London Victoria tomorrow from Sheffield to try out the Flixbus service. It's 99p each way plus a quid booking fee so should be an interesting day ! (however much I tried I never managed to get a 99p journey on a Megabus service ;) )
 
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Haru

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Flixbus don’t run many, if any services themselves. They get third party operators to do it. A bit like a pound shop national express tbh. Whippets is one of the operators.

I am aware but why are Turners getting another bus when they already have two Van Hools?
 
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WelshBluebird

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Flixbus think they can out price nat ex and become dominant.
I think they are right about out pricing National Express, but surely there's only room for one budget operator and at least before COVID, Megabus was firmly in that budget position usually outpricing National Express. So surely their real competition are Megabus and not National Express?

Though saying that extendedpaul's comment suggests maybe Megabus aren't interested in that battle. If that is true I can't see how Megabus would win because the only thing they have ever been better for in my experience is price. If they don't price match National Express and other competitors - why would anyone bother with them (aside from maybe brand recognition).
 

johncrossley

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In other countries Flixbus has ended up buying out the competition so maybe they intend to buy out Megabus. They've already bought out the Megabus operation in mainland Europe.
 

extendedpaul

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I've been travelling between Kent and Cardiff or Newport - to reach Caerphilly - once or twice a month for over ten years, though not in the last year due to COVID.

Initially I used FGW for the whole journey but when the price of advance tickets increased significantly I switched to National Express Fun Fares and Megabus £1 tickets (and some free ones in the winter months) for about five years. Megabus only charged 50p booking fee for any number of journeys booked at the same time and I knew how to nab £1 tickets even when there was only one on each service.

Having tried Flixbus I'd say if prices were similar I'd currently opt for National Express with Flixbus as second choice and Megabus third. That's because Megabus performed badly in comparison with National Express on my journeys when there were problems with the vehicles or serious delays. They also blocked me on Twitter when I posted a critical tweet abut how a passenger was treated !! There is another negative for me linked to passenger behaviour on Megabus which I won't spell out.

Having three competing operators can only be beneficial for the cost-conscious passenger like me but I think it won't be sustainable long term and one way or another we will be back to two operators within a few years.
 
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carlberry

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Having three competing operators can only be beneficial for the cost-conscious passenger like me but I think it won't be sustainable long term and one way or another we will be back to two operators within a few years.
I think, until things settle down, it's hard to see a future for two operators! The current loading levels mean even the previous pricing models would struggle. I assume that Flix have a serious amount of cash available to burn through in the hope that one of the others give up as, without it, this appears to be an awful time to try to start the business.
 

Bletchleyite

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I think, until things settle down, it's hard to see a future for two operators! The current loading levels mean even the previous pricing models would struggle. I assume that Flix have a serious amount of cash available to burn through in the hope that one of the others give up as, without it, this appears to be an awful time to try to start the business.

Given that Stagecoach flogged Megabus's international operations to Flix, it wouldn't entirely surprise me to see them do the same domestically if things go well for Flix.
 

carlberry

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Given that Stagecoach flogged Megabus's international operations to Flix, it wouldn't entirely surprise me to see them do the same domestically if things go well for Flix.
I suspect the complication would be Scotland as they have a lot more of the England - Scotland market and all the Citylink/Parks connections as well to think about.
 

dan5324

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I think, until things settle down, it's hard to see a future for two operators! The current loading levels mean even the previous pricing models would struggle. I assume that Flix have a serious amount of cash available to burn through in the hope that one of the others give up as, without it, this appears to be an awful time to try to start the business.
National Express have been fully booked since prices dropped to 90p. Flixbus have been taking two people at most... even the driver didn’t know the way so had to follow a National Express coach out of Swansea.
 
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Flying Snail

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National Express have been fully booked since prices dropped to 90p. Flixbus have been taking two people at most... even the driver didn’t know the way so had to follow a National Express coach out of Swansea.

At those prices the level of custom is largely irrelevant as the revenue isn't going to come close to covering costs, the "winner" will be whichever operator can sustain the losses longest and squeeze out the competition. The prize is the ability to run competition free in the future with fares high enough to generate profit.
 

dan5324

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At those prices the level of custom is largely irrelevant as the revenue isn't going to come close to covering costs, the "winner" will be whichever operator can sustain the losses longest and squeeze out the competition. The prize is the ability to run competition free in the future with fares high enough to generate profit.

True. But it certainly isn’t looking like it’s gonna be Flixbus.
 
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TravelDream

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I've been travelling between Kent and Cardiff or Newport - to reach Caerphilly - once or twice a month for over ten years, though not in the last year due to COVID.

Initially I used FGW for the whole journey but when the price of advance tickets increased significantly I switched to National Express Fun Fares and Megabus £1 tickets (and some free ones in the winter months) for about five years. Megabus only charged 50p booking fee for any number of journeys booked at the same time and I knew how to nab £1 tickets even when there was only one on each service.

Having tried Flixbus I'd say if prices were similar I'd currently opt for National Express with Flixbus as second choice and Megabus third. That's because Megabus performed badly in comparison with National Express on my journeys when there were problems with the vehicles or serious delays. They also blocked me on Twitter when I posted a critical tweet abut how a passenger was treated !! There is another negative for me linked to passenger behaviour on Megabus which I won't spell out.

Having three competing operators can only be beneficial for the cost-conscious passenger like me but I think it won't be sustainable long term and one way or another we will be back to two operators within a few years.

As a (former) regular traveler on the Cardiff-Heathrow route, I know how important competition is. Prices on National Express (NX) when Megabus started the route fell from £40-£60 to £15-£30 return.

I haven't noticed any particularly bad behaviour by passengers on Megabus. What sort of thing do you mean? Drinking/ shouting/ violence/antisocial behaviour?

It totally unsustainable though to have three operators on the route to London and one the one who blinks first will have to go. Competition is good, but too much can be bad for the consumer. We could, hypothetically, go from three to one operator on the route if things go badly for the other companies.
 
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Flying Snail

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True. But it certainly isn’t looking like it’s gonna be flixbus.

Based on what?

The only thing that will matter is their ability to bankroll the losses. Below cost selling is a game of financial chicken not who can get the most bargain fare passengers.

The one possible advantage National Express (NX) and to some extent Megabus have is they are established brands. They could massively cut services or routes and restart them at a later date and should get custom back quicker.

Megabus established by offering cheap headline fares but not running entire services at below cost, maybe they had ideas of running NX off the road but that didn't happen and they both moved closer to each other in the price and product offered.

NX and Megabus have for the most part co-existed without too much attempts to price-war each other out of markets in recent years. Co-existing with competitive but profitable revenue is a better long-term strategy for traditional companies.

Flixbus are fundamentally different, they are more similar to Uber than the traditional coach operators, leveraging private equity capital and cheap finance to gain a dominant position where they can skim a high margin from being the main customer portal and franchise owner for coach services.
 
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dan5324

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Based on what?

The only thing that will matter is their ability to bankroll the losses. Below cost selling is a game of financial chicken not who can get the most bargain fare passengers.

The one possible advantage NX and to some extent Megabus have is they are established brands. They could massively cut services or routes and restart them at a later date and should get custom back quicker.

Megabus established by offering cheap headline fares but not running entire services at below cost, maybe they had ideas of running NX off the road but that didn't happen and they both moved closer to each other in the price and product offered.

NX and Megabus have for the most part co-existed without too much attempts to price-war each other out of markets in recent years. Co-existing with competitive but profitable revenue is a better long-term strategy for traditional companies.

Flixbus are fundamentally different, they are more similar to Uber than the traditional coach operators, leveraging private equity capital and cheap finance to gain a dominant position where they can skim a high margin from being the main customer portal and franchise owner for coach services.
Well if National Express are taking 56 people and Flixbus are taking two, with tickets at 99p I think that’s a sign that it hasn’t been the greatest of starts for Flixbus. National Express are a known brand and that counts for a hell of a lot generally.
 
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Starmill

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Well if national express are taking 56 people. And flixbus are taking two, with tickets at 99p I think that’s a sign that it hasn’t been the greatest of starts for flixbus. National express are known brand and that counts for a hell of a lot generally.
Indeed, but Flixbus have barely begun yet. They'll have entered the market for a longer game than a few weeks.
 

Flying Snail

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Well if national express are taking 56 people. And flixbus are taking two, with tickets at 99p I think that’s a sign that it hasn’t been the greatest of starts for flixbus. National express are known brand and that counts for a hell of a lot generally.

Are you not understanding the point I am making or are you disagreeing with it?

In simple terms; It does not matter who is selling more 99p seats, a full coach of them is still making a substantial loss. Flixbus do not have to gain market share over National Express (NX), as long as they are forcing NX to run the services at significantly below cost all they need to do is sustain this loss-making for longer than NX are able or willing to do so.

The goal isn't to win the 99p coach market, there is no profit in this, the goal is to bankrupt, buy or force out the competition so they have free reign at controlling the £20 coach market. As long as Flixbus can bankroll this strategy they could literally run empty coaches right up to the point NX, with full coaches, run out of cash and still win.

I am not saying it is inevitable that Flixbus will prevail btw, just that this is the point of aggressive below-cost selling.
 
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GusB

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Please remember to define any acronyms the first time they are used in a post. This is a requirement of forum rules. Thank you.
 

M803UYA

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The goal isn't to win the 99p coach market, there is no profit in this, the goal is to bankrupt, buy or force out the competition so they have free reign at controlling the £20 coach market. As long as Flixbus can bankroll this strategy they could literally run empty coaches right up to the point NX, with full coaches, run out of cash and still win.
Flixbus will be able to cross subsidise the UK operations from the European ones, so they have more cash available to them with which to play financial chicken and can run as long as they wish. We will see some sort of consolidation in the market within the coming years, question is who will exit by way of a sale? I think Flixbus can be safely ruled out.
 

Robertj21a

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Well if National Express are taking 56 people and Flixbus are taking two, with tickets at 99p I think that’s a sign that it hasn’t been the greatest of starts for Flixbus. National Express are a known brand and that counts for a hell of a lot generally.
Do you really expect a new entrant to the market to fill up their coaches from the first days/months?.
 

markymark2000

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You could easily argue as well that Flixbus hasn't really advertised. They have done a bare basic press release but that is about it. There is no coach tracking and they aren't shown on journey planners. Until the past day or so, if you were to go onto the flix site to the route map, none of the UK destinations showed up. Even now, some destinations are bugged so you can't click them.

As for ticket prices, not all seats are being sold at 99p. Looking at the a Manchester services, I think fares seem to be around £4.99 when a few seats are sold and then the fares seem to cap at £23. A sold out bus today as well apparently (17:00 from Victoria to Manchester). Other routes seem to be be priced much cheaper and that seems to imply that these haven't picked up as quickly as Manchester.
 

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