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From Monday 19th July - Government has laid Regulations revoking (most) restrictions

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quantinghome

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Cold bloodedly, ultimately a negligible number, given that ~1500 people die each and every day.
It won't take many weeks increasing at the current rate for it to become non-negligible. Which it might not do, or then again it might.

But ultimately, once we are in the best position we can be, with the vulnerable and elderly long since fully vaccinated, there will remain a base level of mortality from the virus in general circulation. But I’m not sure what the rational argument is for extending restrictions beyond that point?
We cannot rationally extend restrictions indefinitely, and there is a persuasive argument for loosening them now rather than in the Autumn. However we could have removed them more a bit more gradually, as Wales has done, which is very noticeable in the data.

Unless, of course, the real agenda is a political one, and the intention is to cow the population and make it more more accepting of authoritarianism. Given the political leanings of certain sage advisors, and of those sections of the media who are most pro restriction, I’m increasingly convinced that’s what’s really going on here…
If that is what's going on then opening everything up is certainly a funny way to go about it.
 
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Domh245

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This is where we are today. Any idea how many deaths we'll see in two weeks, four weeks, six weeks?

View attachment 99977

At current trends, and looking at England only, in 2 weeks (w/c 30/7) you'd expect an average ~126 daily "28 day" deaths, 93 "death certificate", and 81 "underlying cause" (the latter two based on registrations the week after) and by 6 weeks (w/c 27/8) we'll see 354/162/145 respectively. To contextualise, daily all-cause deaths on the 2015-19 average for that week would be 1,312, and is usually around the 'low tide' mark for annual deaths.

The "good" news is that after 8 weeks (w/b 24/9), cumulative infections since April would hit 62 million at current trends - which is to say that the current trends will very likely break down well before we get there (English population ~56mil) the 6 week deaths, assuming a 2 week delay between infection and death, would be ~275,000 positives tests a day for England alone, which is at the upper end of, if not beyond, the confidence intervals for most of the SPI-M models I've seen.

As ever though, the real squeaky bum time will be hospitals.
 

HSTEd

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It won't take many weeks increasing at the current rate for it to become non-negligible. Which it might not do, or then again it might.

It can only keep increasing at this rate for a relatively short period of time because the virus' acceleation is going to rapidly deplete the pool of infection targets.

If we keep going up at 40% per week or so, we will be infecting ~230,000+ known cases every day, so probably more like 300-400k actual cases.

That is going to start cutting R by about ~0.75% per day - the virus can't keep that up.
 

NorthKent1989

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What is it with you and goalposts? The virus isn't done. I don't know when it will be over. Neither do you, nor does anybody. But it's quite clearly not over.


This is where we are today. Any idea how many deaths we'll see in two weeks, four weeks, six weeks?

View attachment 99977

What is it with you and insisting we should still be cautious? The goal posts do keep shifting, no one can deny that it’s a fact.

You raise a valid point though, it’s not over because it’ll never be over, Covid is here to stay, get used to it.

As for your graph, are the deaths as high as the 2018 flu? Because newsflash I recall we lead normal lives back then and not going into mass hysteria.
 

43066

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We cannot rationally extend restrictions indefinitely, and there is a persuasive argument for loosening them now rather than in the Autumn. However we could have removed them more a bit more gradually, as Wales has done, which is very noticeable in the data.

So there’s a persuasive argument for opening up now, but we could go slower. Equally, we could go more quickly (and should in my view), because I want to get back to a 2019 style normal as quickly as possible.

Wales, just like Scotland, and the GLA for that matter, is a devolved political body who don’t actually have to carry the cost of restrictions, but can make a great deal of political headway by simply advocating for a different approach to central government.

If that is what's going on then opening everything up is certainly a funny way to go about it.

I’m not suggesting that is the government’s agenda in opening up. I’m suggesting that is the desired result of those who are in favour of endlessly shifting the goal posts and advocating for continued restrictions, including certain members of SAGE who moonlight as Communists, and others on the authoritarian far left.
 

Nicholas Lewis

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So there’s a persuasive argument for opening up now, but we could go slower. Equally, we could go more quickly (and should in my view), because I want to get back to a 2019 style normal as quickly as possible.
We've opened up all restrictions removed so we can go as quickly as we want its only the desire and behaviour of people now that will determine how this ends up.
 

Cdd89

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It won't take many weeks increasing at the current rate for it to become non-negligible. Which it might not do, or then again it might.
We would need 255k daily cases to reach the hospitalisation levels that overwhelmed the NHS in January. That would be a staggeringly high level and feels really unlikely to me.

Of course the counterarguments are a) it’s Delta which we’re trailblazing on, and b) the risk perception has changed meaning more risks will be taking.

But conversely we trailblazed with Alpha which was far more infectious and that didn’t peak out much higher than March in terms of deaths, and people are still being cautious (see observations thread with people bemoaning high levels of mask compliance; masks may not be very effective but they are probably a “symbol” of caution).

The risk perception here really comes down to how much effect you think restrictions had in attenuating the peak. Comparing against places like Florida and Sweden, I don’t think they had a huge effect, but we can never know for sure. But we are all on the same side now in (bizarrely) hoping that lockdowns aren’t incredibly effective - in that we are hoping that the natural peak isn’t more than four times above what it would have been in Winter with a lockdown.

Nightclubs are the highest risk but not everyone goes to them - a subset of an age group - and those that do will likely be taking risks in other ways already, and this pool will rapidly be exhausted. I can therefore see reason to be far more optimistic (my main concern is local challenges in areas of low vaccination uptake).
 

DustyBin

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What is it with you and goalposts? The virus isn't done. I don't know when it will be over. Neither do you, nor does anybody. But it's quite clearly not over.

What do you mean by over? It’s going nowhere, it’s now endemic. Or would you really like to see us pursue a zero covid policy which would be an exercise in futility at this point (but may well further the cause of those with ulterior motives).

This is where we are today. Any idea how many deaths we'll see in two weeks, four weeks, six weeks?

View attachment 99977

And how many people actually died FROM covid today? The metric by which we record “covid deaths” is ridiculous and I think you know it, and they also have a habit of throwing in backdated deaths in case you weren’t aware. Again, we’re in the endemic stage. Using the existing metric will guarantee a steady increase in “covid deaths” which again I suspect you’re fully aware of. We’re into “within 28 days of drinking tea” territory here.
 

Nicholas Lewis

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We would need 255k daily cases to reach the hospitalisation levels that overwhelmed the NHS in January. That would be a staggeringly high level and feels really unlikely to me.

Of course the counterarguments are a) it’s Delta which we’re trailblazing on, and b) the risk perception has changed meaning more risks will be taking.

But conversely we trailblazed with Alpha which was far more infectious and that didn’t peak out much higher than March in terms of deaths, and people are still being cautious (see observations thread with people bemoaning high levels of mask compliance; masks may not be very effective but they are probably a “symbol” of caution).

The risk perception here really comes down to how much effect you think restrictions had in attenuating the peak. Comparing against places like Florida and Sweden, I don’t think they had a huge effect, but we can never know for sure. But we are all on the same side now in (bizarrely) hoping that lockdowns aren’t incredibly effective - in that we are hoping that the natural peak isn’t more than four times above what it would have been in Winter with a lockdown.

Nightclubs are the highest risk but not everyone goes to them - a subset of an age group - and those that do will likely be taking risks in other ways already, and this pool will rapidly be exhausted. I can therefore see reason to be far more optimistic (my main concern is local challenges in areas of low vaccination uptake).
The 20-40 age group are responsible for 45-50% of the daily cases so those not vaccinated are busily acquiring some level of immunity and i would imagine this group will be the most socially active post step 4 so likely to increase further. Also will this group be equally inclined to take a test like the older age groups so potentially case levels are under reported. Anyhow with its rapid circulation the number of hosts will soon run out and case numbers start to moderate further within 2-3 weeks.
 

bramling

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Wales, just like Scotland, and the GLA for that matter, is a devolved political body who don’t actually have to carry the cost of restrictions, but can make a great deal of political headway by simply advocating for a different approach to central government.

This is one of the most depressing aspects to this. As you say, devolved bodies with a political agenda who don't have to bear the full implications of their policies. Likewise the ability for political agendas to be disguised as science.

I'm not sure the devolved areas can claim to have performed better, indeed there may well be a case to say things have at times been worse, but at least one of the leaders will have an answer to that - "we could have eliminated Covid if it wasn't for England" ("and, by the way, this is why we need independence"). Having said that, I'd take Sturgeon's comms over Johnson's any day.
 

DelayRepay

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The 20-40 age group are responsible for 45-50% of the daily cases so those not vaccinated are busily acquiring some level of immunity and i would imagine this group will be the most socially active post step 4 so likely to increase further. Also will this group be equally inclined to take a test like the older age groups so potentially case levels are under reported. Anyhow with its rapid circulation the number of hosts will soon run out and case numbers start to moderate further within 2-3 weeks.

And this is exactly why we had to re-open now. Get all these cases out the way and build up more immunity before the Winter approaches.

Young people may not be well protected by vaccines (due to low take up), but if they acquire a degree of immunity from mixing in night clubs (and other places), then it may help to avoid a repeat of what happened in Universities last September.
 

Pete_uk

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Anyway, it was so refreshing walking into Tesco yesterday morning. It was so cool and fresh and I didn't have to breathe through a bit of cloth. Most staff and customers had them on but not all of them.
 

Failed Unit

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I must admit so many don’t knows the great unwashed have.
For example how many people get re-infected multiple times? Why? (Which will take a long time to understand). Are people that were taken out in the last peak in the winter safe?

as the younger unvaccinated group are making up the majority maybe us oldies are a firebreak. Regionally it is hitting the NorthEast harder. But is that because the South East got Alpha harder?

it will also be interesting how St Nichola reacts. I know I lot of Scottish people on holiday in England. If the test positive while they are here it gets recorded here. Scottish people enjoy clubbing just as much as the rest of the UK, they will travel for it. Likewise a lot of English are going to Scotland. We haven’t seen the impact of July 19th yet, so it still spreads rapidly with the current restrictions in Scotland. Scotland needs to tourist money, but most importantly to her, if it spikes because of the school holidays her favourite line can be use - it is all the English’s fault.
 

duncanp

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it will also be interesting how St Nichola reacts. I know I lot of Scottish people on holiday in England. If the test positive while they are here it gets recorded here. Scottish people enjoy clubbing just as much as the rest of the UK, they will travel for it. Likewise a lot of English are going to Scotland. We haven’t seen the impact of July 19th yet, so it still spreads rapidly with the current restrictions in Scotland. Scotland needs to tourist money, but most importantly to her, if it spikes because of the school holidays her favourite line can be use - it is all the English’s fault.

According to today's papers, St Nicola seems to be reacting by threatening to delay "Freedom Day" in Scotland because not enough younger people are getting their first dose of the vaccine.

If that were to happen, it would mean that the final unlocking in Scotland happens when schools have returned from the summer holidays, and we saw what happened last year.
 

Domh245

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According to today's papers, St Nicola seems to be reacting by threatening to delay "Freedom Day" in Scotland because not enough younger people are getting their first dose of the vaccine.

At around 70% of 18-29YOs having had a first dose, I think she needs a bit of a reality check. 70% uptake at the beginning of this would have been considered excellent, given a total 75% uptake amongst the under 50s
 

Failed Unit

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At around 70% of 18-29YOs having had a first dose, I think she needs a bit of a reality check. 70% uptake at the beginning of this would have been considered excellent, given a total 75% uptake amongst the under 50s
I saw a graphic recently of the take up by age groups uk wide, (double vaccinated) the two that stood out on that day were the over 80's (which was still high) but it had a larger "unvaccinated" % then they many categories of 45-80. The other ones were the below 30s which is hardly surprising.

Knowing an unvaccinated over 80 year old (my dad) - "Something is going to kill me so I am not going to bother with that" I suspect will account for the over 80s although some may not be able to get it for various reasons. The doctor did offer to come around to the house if he wanted it, so it is definitely stubbornness with him, but then his general health is so poor that quote is correct as well.

The younger age groups at the time clearly hadn't had the chance to get into the 90%+ mark.

I honestly think that 90% vaccinated above 18 year olds is a good target, we will never get to 100%. I also think that the vaccine passports actually may harden attitudes not to get it for some. We will see. More people I have spoken to have taken it because the want to keep travelling rather than concerns about catching Covid. Some of the younger people I speak to have genuine concerns about long term impacts, some of these fears are from Anti-Vaxers (such as it will make you infertile) , but then this was the generation that was caught up in the MMR vaccine issue and the fear it was linked to Autism.
 

quantinghome

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The metric by which we record “covid deaths” is ridiculous and I think you know it, and they also have a habit of throwing in backdated deaths in case you weren’t aware. Again, we’re in the endemic stage. Using the existing metric will guarantee a steady increase in “covid deaths” which again I suspect you’re fully aware of. We’re into “within 28 days of drinking tea” territory here.
Not this again. The daily recorded "deaths within 28 days of testing +ve for covid" aligns accurately with numbers of Covid deaths from death certificates and excess mortality statistics. It's trustworthy.

I'm sure you're aware that the argument you've put forward is used by covid denialists. I would hate to use a guilt by association argument, but at some point the duck test needs to be applied.
 

Yew

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Not this again. The daily recorded "deaths within 28 days of testing +ve for covid" aligns accurately with numbers of Covid deaths from death certificates and excess mortality statistics. It's trustworthy.

I'm sure you're aware that the argument you've put forward is used by covid denialists. I would hate to use a guilt by association argument, but at some point the duck test needs to be applied.
That was, however, calculated before the vaccine, which is highly likely to change the balance of cross-entropy in the calculation.
 

DustyBin

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Not this again. The daily recorded "deaths within 28 days of testing +ve for covid" aligns accurately with numbers of Covid deaths from death certificates and excess mortality statistics. It's trustworthy.

I'm sure you're aware that the argument you've put forward is used by covid denialists. I would hate to use a guilt by association argument, but at some point the duck test needs to be applied.

Ok then, for the avoidance of doubt: Covid exists and has killed lots of people. There you are, I’ve said it!

But where is this excess mortality you speak of?

E0874D86-CFC4-4D2A-AA09-E6B6DF7ED07C.jpeg

 

Nicholas Lewis

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Ok then, for the avoidance of doubt: Covid exists and has killed lots of people. There you are, I’ve said it!

But where is this excess mortality you speak of?

View attachment 100003

Excess mortality is the top bar chart which in aggregate over the covid data period is c90k however this will continue to decline each week but unlikely to be fully neutralised.
 

DustyBin

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Excess mortality is the top bar chart which in aggregate over the covid data period is c90k however this will continue to decline each week but unlikely to be fully neutralised.

Correct, however as @Yew pointed out above we’ve been vaccinating people since the beginning of the year. As a result there have been negative excess deaths in all but one week since March (which is the point I was making). We’re in a completely different situation now so whether the overall covid death statistics align with the overall excess mortality statistics or not it’s a moot point.
 

brad465

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Correct, however as @Yew pointed out above we’ve been vaccinating people since the beginning of the year. As a result there have been negative excess deaths in all but one week since March (which is the point I was making). We’re in a completely different situation now so whether the overall covid death statistics align with the overall excess mortality statistics or not it’s a moot point.
There does also seem to be some sort of correction/cancel out whenever a prolific period of excess deaths is recorded, as both the first and second wave excess death periods have recorded periods with below average deaths. Should deaths rise again in the coming weeks and months, it'll be interesting to see if the non-covid death measures on their own are above the average line, which may indicate "collateral damage" deaths. In the second wave also, while excess deaths were logged for a long time, there was a notable proportion, sometimes as much as half of all covid-registered deaths in a given week, that were registered as covid deaths but below the average line, so this suggests for some covid was taking the place of another cause of death that would have ended a person's life around the same time or slightly earlier than otherwise may have been the case.
 

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Xenophon PCDGS

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I don't know if this is the right website Covid-19 thread, but my neighbour gave me a lift into Heald Green, a part of the Stockport area covered by TfGM. I boarded a 368 Stagecoach Manchester double-deck bus to Peel Hall and noticed the same seats near to the door were still taped off and notices about certain seats not being in use were affixed to the windows in those areas. There were 11 passengers on the lower deck, all wearing masks.
 

johncrossley

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I don't know if this is the right website Covid-19 thread, but my neighbour gave me a lift into Heald Green, a part of the Stockport area covered by TfGM. I boarded a 368 Stagecoach Manchester double-deck bus to Peel Hall and noticed the same seats near to the door were still taped off and notices about certain seats not being in use were affixed to the windows in those areas. There were 11 passengers on the lower deck, all wearing masks.

Why is it important to mention that the area is in Greater Manchester? TfGM have no authority to enforce masks on buses. So unless you were pointing out that this wasn't in London, I don't see the relevance. Your complaint (if you have one) should be with the operator concerned.
 

DelayRepay

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Why is it important to mention that the area is in Greater Manchester? TfGM have no authority to enforce masks on buses. So unless you were pointing out that this wasn't in London, I don't see the relevance. Your complaint (if you have one) should be with the operator concerned.

I think it's interesting to know the area that comments relate to. Whilst TfGM may have no authority to enforce the rule, their message is still clearly 'wear a mask'. If we know where observations relate to, we can compare how the situation varies by region, and we can see whether organisations such as TfGM are being successful in 'encouraging' mask wearing even though they may lack the legal power to enforce it.
 

Ediswan

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The latest "People tested positive" from the government dashboard looks promising. However, I have not dug into the details of how those figures and graph have been arrived at, so there could be a "but" hiding somewhere

1627231876005.png
 

Watershed

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The latest "People tested positive" from the government dashboard looks promising. However, I have not dug into the details of how those figures and graph have been arrived at, so there could be a "but" hiding somewhere

View attachment 100282
There isn't really a "but". Positive tests have nearly halved in the last week despite the number of tests staying virtually the same.

Of course, the vocal minority of locktivists are continuing to bleat:
Remember guys it takes up to 2 weeks to see a change in figures when an event such as unlocking a lockdown happens. We won’t see the consequences of removing lockdown for another 4-7 days…
 

Simon11

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Scotland has dramatically seen a fall in cases- suspected to be due to dropping out of the euros and schools breaking up.
Hopefully the same will happen to England over the next few weeks showing that relaxing of masks makes little difference and its more about people being very close together!
 
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