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From Monday 19th July - Government has laid Regulations revoking (most) restrictions

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brad465

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PHE are having another bad day with technical difficulties, but have confirmed 24,950 cases for the latest update (basically 25k), which means since the 20th July daily figures have dropped around 21,000. I'm expecting the next couple of days to be up a bit in case a weekend lag and/or fluctuations exist, but so far things are looking better as time moves on further from "freedom day" (even though cases shouldn't matter so much now).
 
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greyman42

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My understanding is that Labour are proposing tests be accepted as an alternative to proof of vaccination.
I heard Starmers interview on LBC and that is how i understood it.

In practice I suspect the best plan for Labour is probably not to hold a position at all until they have to, in the hopes that the Tories will back away from it on their own.
I think the Conservatives are only using this "theat" to coerce people into getting vaccinated.
 

Nicholas Lewis

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PHE are having another bad day with technical difficulties, but have confirmed 24,950 cases for the latest update (basically 25k), which means since the 20th July daily figures have dropped around 21,000. I'm expecting the next couple of days to be up a bit in case a weekend lag and/or fluctuations exist, but so far things are looking better as time moves on further from "freedom day" (even though cases shouldn't matter so much now).
England hospitalisations are still ticking up and over 5k now but as they lag about 10 days that was to be expected so we need to watch this week that a downturn starts coming through. Within the regional stats there's quite a contrast. NW region has been pretty static for last few weeks with NE up nearly three fold in response to greater increase in cases everywhere is around double.

Vaccination rates continue to fall on 1st dose which is a concern as govt clearly want this at a much higher percentage in younger age groups to avoid any additional restrictions being imposed before autumn in certain settings.
 

Domh245

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PHE are having another bad day with technical difficulties, but have confirmed 24,950 cases for the latest update (basically 25k), which means since the 20th July daily figures have dropped around 21,000. I'm expecting the next couple of days to be up a bit in case a weekend lag and/or fluctuations exist, but so far things are looking better as time moves on further from "freedom day" (even though cases shouldn't matter so much now).

Promisingly, the PCR positive test %age in England has nudged down slightly from 11.8% to 11.5% - further suggesting that the decrease in new cases is really genuine rather than a data error or people avoiding testing

Vaccination rates continue to fall on 1st dose which is a concern as govt clearly want this at a much higher percentage in younger age groups to avoid any additional restrictions being imposed before autumn in certain settings.

There's no reason why there should be restrictions on the basis of unvaccinated young adults...
 

SamYeager

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England hospitalisations are still ticking up and over 5k now
They could double to 10k and it would only take us back to the situation in early March. Obviously it would preferable if the numbers fall well short of that figure but currently it's more of a disruption to hospitals than anything else.
 

Nicholas Lewis

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Promisingly, the PCR positive test %age in England has nudged down slightly from 11.8% to 11.5% - further suggesting that the decrease in new cases is really genuine rather than a data error or people avoiding testing



There's no reason why there should be restrictions on the basis of unvaccinated young adults...
I agree but current govt policy is predicated on high vaccination levels and that ain't happening in the sub 30 age group with 1st dose numbers dwindling by the day although the 18-24 age group look slightly more engaged. So govt running out these veiled threats on vaccine passports for various settings to try and push numbers up but it ain't happening so govt need a plan B.
 

yorksrob

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I agree but current govt policy is predicated on high vaccination levels and that ain't happening in the sub 30 age group with 1st dose numbers dwindling by the day although the 18-24 age group look slightly more engaged. So govt running out these veiled threats on vaccine passports for various settings to try and push numbers up but it ain't happening so govt need a plan B.

I have no intention of observing restrictions because of people who don't fancy getting the jab.

The govt needs to have a plan C.
 

Huntergreed

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I have no intention of observing restrictions because of people who don't fancy getting the jab.

The govt needs to have a plan C.
In case they don’t, I have one:

Plan C - complete normality without any restrictions or vaccine passports, accepting that SARS-CoV-2 is going to become an endemic coronavirus amongst the multiple we already live with.

Educate the public on what this means and assure them that, although the virus will spread, the vast, vast, VAST majority of infections will be unnoticeable if not mildly unpleasant, and the NHS is well capable to deal with those which are slightly more adverse.

That wasn’t hard, was it?
 

yorksrob

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In case they don’t, I have one:

Plan C - complete normality without any restrictions or vaccine passports, accepting that SARS-CoV-2 is going to become an endemic coronavirus amongst the multiple we already live with.

That wasn’t hard, was it?
Works for me !
 

farleigh

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The younger generation have made enough sacrifices already IMO.

They have already had their education severely disrupted and now they are being coerced into getting two jabs to protect older people. I would not be surprised if a resentment surfaces in years to come.
 

Dent

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The younger generation have made enough sacrifices already IMO.

They have already had their education severely disrupted and now they are being coerced into getting two jabs to protect older people. I would not be surprised if a resentment surfaces in years to come.

They haven't made sacrifices, they have had restrictions unilaterally imposed on them. A sacrifice is a personal choice, what people have suffered at the hands of the government had not been by choice.
 

Nicholas Lewis

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They have already had their education severely disrupted and now they are being coerced into getting two jabs to protect older people. I would not be surprised if a resentment surfaces in years to come.
Undoubtedly but younger generation not big Tory voters at the best of times so govt aren't bothered.
 

MikeWM

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I agree but current govt policy is predicated on high vaccination levels and that ain't happening in the sub 30 age group with 1st dose numbers dwindling by the day although the 18-24 age group look slightly more engaged. So govt running out these veiled threats on vaccine passports for various settings to try and push numbers up but it ain't happening so govt need a plan B.

They are going to get 90% of adults with one shot, and probably 85 or 86% with two.

That's higher than they ever would have reasonably predicted, and its well time now to wind down, rather than ratchet up the coersion to silly levels like we're now seeing.
 

farleigh

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They haven't made sacrifices, they have had restrictions unilaterally imposed on them. A sacrifice is a personal choice, what people have suffered at the hands of the government had not been by choice.
You are correct but the sentiment stands
 

brad465

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England hospitalisations are still ticking up and over 5k now but as they lag about 10 days that was to be expected so we need to watch this week that a downturn starts coming through. Within the regional stats there's quite a contrast. NW region has been pretty static for last few weeks with NE up nearly three fold in response to greater increase in cases everywhere is around double.

Vaccination rates continue to fall on 1st dose which is a concern as govt clearly want this at a much higher percentage in younger age groups to avoid any additional restrictions being imposed before autumn in certain settings.
I agree but current govt policy is predicated on high vaccination levels and that ain't happening in the sub 30 age group with 1st dose numbers dwindling by the day although the 18-24 age group look slightly more engaged. So govt running out these veiled threats on vaccine passports for various settings to try and push numbers up but it ain't happening so govt need a plan B.
My understanding is one reason for the slowdown in first doses is lack of supply, with what we have largely being held back for 2nd doses, which will hopefully change in September when the 60m Pfizer order starts arriving but until then it's Moderna, unless AZ suddenly gets allowed again for under 40s. If this is the case then the talk of passports and/or reintroducing restrictions is all to cover up for this supply problem.
 

Nicholas Lewis

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My understanding is one reason for the slowdown in first doses is lack of supply, with what we have largely being held back for 2nd doses, which will hopefully change in September when the 60m Pfizer order starts arriving but until then it's Moderna, unless AZ suddenly gets allowed again for under 40s. If this is the case then the talk of passports and/or reintroducing restrictions is all to cover up for this supply problem.
I know that was reported as an issue late June but doesn't appear to being used as a reason by govt as a reason for drop off in numbers. Mind you that wouldn't fit the world beating vaccine programme narrative.

As an aside ive not me one person whose has the Moderna vaccine?
 

brad465

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I know that was reported as an issue late June but doesn't appear to being used as a reason by govt as a reason for drop off in numbers. Mind you that wouldn't fit the world beating vaccine programme narrative.

As an aside ive not me one person whose has the Moderna vaccine?
The bit I've boldened I think is you answering you're own point as I think you've realised. I don't know any Moderna vaccinated people either, but it is also the vaccine we've ordered the least stock for, so by way of probability there won't be so many to come across.
 

DelayRepay

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My understanding is one reason for the slowdown in first doses is lack of supply, with what we have largely being held back for 2nd doses, which will hopefully change in September when the 60m Pfizer order starts arriving but until then it's Moderna, unless AZ suddenly gets allowed again for under 40s. If this is the case then the talk of passports and/or reintroducing restrictions is all to cover up for this supply problem.

Is this really the case though? I see regular 'adverts' on social media from local NHS organisations and the council announcing walk in vaccine centres. I never see complaints from people who've gone to the walk in centre and been turned away due to lack of supplies.

What is clear is that the government's various carrots and sticks are not working. These include the nightclub 'threat', but also the changes to amber list travel rules (no isolation if vaccinated) and the change to isolation rules for vaccinated people from 16 August. But they don't seem to have driven an increase in numbers being vaccinated.
 

Urobach

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I know that was reported as an issue late June but doesn't appear to being used as a reason by govt as a reason for drop off in numbers. Mind you that wouldn't fit the world beating vaccine programme narrative.

As an aside ive not me one person whose has the Moderna vaccine?
Maybe all the Moderna jabs are in Manchester, majority of friends in my social circle seem to have it (I'm in the minority with Pfizer)
 

Jamesrob637

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I know that was reported as an issue late June but doesn't appear to being used as a reason by govt as a reason for drop off in numbers. Mind you that wouldn't fit the world beating vaccine programme narrative.

As an aside ive not me one person whose has the Moderna vaccine?

I have. First one was 26.05, second is scheduled for 14.08.
 

takno

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What is clear is that the government's various carrots and sticks are not working. These include the nightclub 'threat', but also the changes to amber list travel rules (no isolation if vaccinated) and the change to isolation rules for vaccinated people from 16 August. But they don't seem to have driven an increase in numbers being vaccinated.
It's a pretty poorly-targetted set of sticks and carrots tbh. The majority of people don't go abroad at all in any one year, and if they do they don't have the money to take risks over an ever-changing "amber" list. Similarly nightclubs aren't a hugely popular pursuit to the 25-40 group, and tend to be less popular in the ethnic minority communities they are struggling with.
 

brad465

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7 days in a row now that cases have declined; today sees 23,511. Who knew that opening nightclubs was the answer to getting cases to drop? ;)
 

big_rig

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7 days in a row now that cases have declined; today sees 23,511. Who knew that opening nightclubs was the answer to getting cases to drop? ;)
Pretend SAGE and the Guardian need to issue another 'emergency declaration' that England is a 'risk to the world' and it'll halve again! :smile:
 

Nicholas Lewis

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7 days in a row now that cases have declined; today sees 23,511. Who knew that opening nightclubs was the answer to getting cases to drop? ;)
Hospitalisations are yet to show any sign of a slowdown with another 836 admitted in England today but daily rate of increase slowing down on 7 day MA so ought to top out by end of week as this dataset has a 10-14 day lag to cases.
 
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