Furloughing in the UK - what is the current situation?

[westv]

Moderator note - posts #1-#4 originally in this thread:

Face coverings to become mandatory in shops in England (includes poll)

They shoot themselves in the foot in including banks and post offices, because they then state in paragraph 6 of the Schedule that any premises providing financial services is exempt from being a relevant place. No doubt most such businesses will still be applying a mask mandate policy to avoid...

www.railforums.co.uk

I think the removal of furlough in October will change a lot of people's attitudes.

Do we know what percentage of the working population is still furloughed?

 

[Baxenden Bank]

Do we know what percentage of the working population is still furloughed?

Four pages of the same argument going round and round in circles since your post, no-one seems to be bothered with numbers.

As of 19/7: 9.5 million still furloughed, at a cost of £29.8 billion, estimated £80 billion by the time furlough schemes ends in October. Plus around 2.7 million self-employed under that support scheme, at a cost of £7.5 billion by June (paid as a single lump sum, second tranche paid soon?).

Over a quarter of the workforce furloughed, plus the self-employed, plus those working form home at less than 100% effectiveness.

 

[bramling]

Four pages of the same argument going round and round in circles since your post, no-one seems to be bothered with numbers.

As of 19/7: 9.5 million still furloughed, at a cost of £29.8 billion, estimated £80 billion by the time furlough schemes ends in October. Plus around £2.7 million self-employed under that support scheme, at a cost of £7.5 billion by June (paid as a single lump sum, second tranche paid soon?).

Out of interest who is still furloughed? In my place there are still a large number of people shielding who have been placed on furlough, and a number in roles deemed “non business critical” (I can certainly think of some in that category who could quite easily be dispensed with without much if any impact).

However with hospitality now open again, 9.5 million does seem a lot, especially when non-essential workers were guided to go back to work some time ago now.

 

[Journeyman]

I'm still furloughed - I have a paid job at a heritage railway (safety/ops related).

I'm going nuts. I'm desperate to go back.

 

[westv]

plus those working form home at less than 100% effectiveness.

Going by our place most are as effective at home as they were in the office.

 

[Baxenden Bank]

Earlier today, I searched high and low for these numbers, cobbling together data from various sources - for my own information rather than to respond to
@westv request. Just a random co-incidence.

After I posted above I tried another internet search and found the source data:

HMRC COVID-19 statistics

Includes numbers for:

• Coronavirus Job Retention Scheme (CJRS)
• Self-Employment Income Support Scheme (SEISS
• VAT payments deferral scheme
• Eat Out to Help Out Scheme

	CJRS			SEISS
	number of persons	cost	no of firms	number of persons	cost
20/04/2020​	1.3m*
21/04/2020​	2.2m*
22/04/2020​	3.2m*
23/04/2020​	3.8m	£4.5bn	512,000​
27/04/2020​	4m*
03/05/2020​	6.3m	£8bn	800,000​			nearly a quarter of the workforce (23%)
11/05/2020​	7.5m	£10.1bn	935,000​
17/05/2020​	8m	£11.1bn	986,000​	2m	£6.1bn
24/05/2020​	8.4m	£15bn	1,000,000​	2.3m	£6.8bn
31/05/2020​	8.7m	£17.5bn	1,100,000​	2.5m	£7.2bn
07/06/2020​	8.9m	£19.6bn	1,100,000​	2.6m	£7.5bn	quarter of the workforce
14/06/2020​	9.1m	£20.8bn	1,100,000​	2.6m	£7.6bn
21/06/2020​	9.2m	£22.9bn	1,100,000​	2.6m	£7.6bn
28/06/2020​	9.3m	£25.5bn	1,100,000​	2.6m	£7.7bn
05/07/2020​	9.4m	£27.4bn	1,200,000​	2.7m	£7.7bn
12/07/2020​	9.4m	£28.7bn	1,200,000​	2.7m	£7.8bn
19/07/2020​	9.5m	£29.8bn	1,200,000​	2.7m	£7.8bn
		£80bn by end of scheme in October*
* non HMRC data source

 

[Cowley]

@Baxenden Bank - Good work, thanks for doing that.

 

[yorksrob]

I don't really understand how the figures have continued to go up, given the number of shops and pubs etc that have reopened. It should have been going down for the last month, surely.

 

[NorthOxonian]

I don't really understand how the figures have continued to go up, given the number of shops and pubs etc that have reopened. It should have been going down for the last month, surely.

When I saw that I assumed the totals were cumulative, so 9.5 million people have been on furlough at some point but some of them will have subsequently returned to work. But I could be wrong.

 

[43066]

In my place there are still a large number of people shielding who have been placed on furlough, and a number in roles deemed “non business critical” (I can certainly think of some in that category who could quite easily be dispensed with without much if any impact).

I’m sorry to say it, but at some point people are going to need to stop living in la la land, and either return to work, or be got rid of. The sooner furlough is brought to and end the better.

@Baxenden Bank, thanks for that - those figures make truly terrifying reading.

 

[Baxenden Bank]

I don't really understand how the figures have continued to go up, given the number of shops and pubs etc that have reopened. It should have been going down for the last month, surely.

One would have thought so.

There are figures elsewhere showing the proportion of workers; 'furloughed', 'at work', 'working from home', 'off sick', by type of company; 'trading', 'part trading', 'recently restarted' and 'intending to start' (I think), but they are based on a sample survey, are not collected weekly, and are percentages rather than numbers. I might dig into those tomorrow - nowt else to do after all, not even grocery shopping!

 

[yorksrob]

When I saw that I assumed the totals were cumulative, so 9.5 million people have been on furlough at some point but some of them will have subsequently returned to work. But I could be wrong.

Ah right.

It would be interesting to know how many are are on furlough currently.

 

[Cowley]

I’m sorry to say it, but at some point people are going to need to stop living in la la land, and either return to work, or be got rid of. The sooner furlough is brought to and end the better.

@Baxenden Bank, thanks for that - those figures make truly terrifying reading.

It’s going to be interesting to see how many people take up a second self employed grant.
I could see some people taking it up now but then realising that they’ll have a hefty tax bill coming along if their work starts to pick up again.

 

[Baxenden Bank]

I’m sorry to say it, but at some point people are going to need to stop living in la la land, and either return to work, or be got rid of. The sooner furlough is brought to and end the better.

@Baxenden Bank, thanks for that - those figures make truly terrifying reading.

For the cost of furlough through to October, you could have HS2. Alternatively you could cancel HS2 to cover the furlough cost. Now where's my PPE hat?

 

[43066]

It’s going to be interesting to see how many people take up a second self employed grant.
I could see some people taking it up now but then realising that they’ll have a hefty tax bill coming along if their work starts to pick up again.

Presumably it’s taxable income in the same way as furlough salary payments? Hopefully work will pick up. Again, people now need to be encouraged to get that bit of decorating/building work they’ve been putting off done.

 

[Cowley]

Presumably it’s taxable income in the same way as furlough salary payments? Hopefully work will pick up. Again, people now need to be encouraged to get that bit of decorating/building work they’ve been putting off done.

It is taxable yes, and although it’s going to be quite tempting in a way to take a second payment I don’t think I will personally as work’s picked right up again so I don’t need it, and it’ll only lead to a bigger tax bill in the end.
I did take the first payment though as I had the best part of a month and a half with nothing coming in whatsoever.

It’s been interesting actually that 90% of my work currently is exterior painting and only 10% interior.
Usually it’s more or less the other way around even in summer.
Luckily I’ve made a bit of a plan for winter this year so I haven’t got to worry about work drying up if this all blows up again...

 

[Mag_seven]

With only effectively things like theatres and large concert/sporting venues required to remain closed and airlines remaining on reduced working due to international travel bans, I don't see why anyone else other than those working in those sort of areas should be on furlough. There is no excuse now for offices and factories to be closed. We really have to get Britain back to work and back to work quickly if we are not to see the economy trashed. The lockdown is for all intent and purposes over and the furlough figures should reflect that.

 

[43066]

It’s been interesting actually that 90% of my work currently is exterior painting and only 10% interior.
Usually it’s more or less the other way around even in summer.

Presumably that’s because people are still paranoid about social distancing etc.?

I’m very pleased to hear things are picking up for you.

 

[HSTEd]

I don't really understand how the figures have continued to go up, given the number of shops and pubs etc that have reopened. It should have been going down for the last month, surely.

Because bars, shops and restaurants (bar takeaways) are operating at a small function of their capacity?

 

[yorksrob]

Because bars, shops and restaurants (bar takeaways) are operating at a small function of their capacity?

You still wouldn't expect the overall number on furlough to increase though.

 

[HSTEd]

You still wouldn't expect the overall number on furlough to increase though.

The scheme is still crunching claims from before the scheme closed to new applications on the 30th June.

Employers have until the 31st of July to submit claim paperwork for that final month.

 

[Cowley]

Presumably that’s because people are still paranoid about social distancing etc.?

Exactly that. I’m actually starting a job inside in a couple of weeks time for a family and the father (who’s a doctor) had it back in March.
The wife and two kids were all tested and came back negative even though they hadn’t isolated from each other which is interesting. He said that he felt rough for about a week but bounced back fairly quickly with no long term effects, but for me it was quite strange going into someone’s house for the first time in weeks...
I had an inside job lined up for the whole of June but when I spoke to him he said that he was in the high risk group and had to completely isolate (high blood pressure and heart problems I think). That’s just how it was though and there wasn’t anything I could do or say to change it.

Now I assume this situation must be the same for lots of self employed people in various different trades and I know of plenty of people that are struggling so I’m definitely not going to judge them if they do take the second payment but yet again it comes back to how it’s all going to paid for in the end?

We’ve got children that are all setting out into the world of work at the moment and even though we were in a recession when I did the same at their age it was nothing like the horror show that they’re facing.

I’m very pleased to hear things are picking up for you.

Thanks I appreciate that.

 

[bramling]

For the cost of furlough through to October, you could have HS2. Alternatively you could cancel HS2 to cover the furlough cost. Now where's my PPE hat?

Or something in the region of four Crossrails. When put like that it’s quite staggering, especially the way it was rushed in as an emergency measure with little scrutiny.

 

[43096]

Because bars, shops and restaurants (bar takeaways) are operating at a small function of their capacity?

There’s still lots of places that haven’t re-opened. I was away last weekend and it was surprisingly difficult to find an open restaurant of reasonable quality.

 

[Jamesrob637]

I'm on furlough - Business Travel. Though I'm firing applications round faster than any AK-47 I don't foresee much success in the next couple of months.

 

[Freightmaster]

There’s still lots of places that haven’t re-opened. I was away last weekend and it was surprisingly difficult to find an open restaurant of reasonable quality.

But if they cannot justify reopening now, in the middle of Summer, and with more people
than usual taking holidays/short breaks in the UK because they are wary of flying, surely
the chance of reopening before the furlough scheme ends in October is virtually zero??




MARK

 

[Baxenden Bank]

There is a survey of businesses being undertaken, on a fortnightly basis. Referred to as the 'Business Impacts of Coronavirus Survey'. The latest results were published on 16 July and, for the following question, refers to the period ending July 12 (not 28 June - see footnotes to table).

There is a lot of data in the survey. Type 'Business Impacts of Coronavirus' into the ONS (Office for National Statistics) website for the full range

Question: Which of the following statements best describes your business’s trading status?
Percentage of all responding businesses, broken down by industry, UK, 15 June to 28 June 2020

Industry	Currently trading and has been for more than the last two weeks	Started trading within the last two weeks after a pause in trading	Paused trading and does not intend to restart in the next two weeks	Paused trading but intends to restart in the next two weeks	Permanently ceased trading **
Manufacturing	97.1%​	2.2%	*	*	*
Water Supply, Sewerage, Waste Management And Remediation Activities	98.3%​	1.7%	0.0%​	0.0%​	0.0%​
Construction	86.4%​	7.4%	2.5%​	3.0%​	*
Wholesale And Retail Trade; Repair Of Motor Vehicles And Motorcycles	89.1%​	5.8%	1.9%​	2.5%​	*
Transportation And Storage	92.7%​	*	3.8%​	2.1%​	*
Accommodation And Food Service Activities	42.8%​	8.5%	22.4%​	25.7%​	*
Information And Communication	89.9%​	1.2%	6.1%​	2.1%​	*
Real Estate Activities	95.9%​	1.4%​	2.7%​	0.0%​	0.0%​
Professional, Scientific And Technical Activities	93.1%​	*	3.9%​	*	1.3%
Administrative And Support Service Activities	88.4%​	2.9%	5.3%​	2.9%​	*
Education	89.1%​	2.5%	5.9%​	2.5%​	0.0%​
Human Health And Social Work Activities	97.2%​	2.1%	*	0.0%​	0.0%
Arts, Entertainment And Recreation	33.5%​	5.6%	47.7%​	12.7%​	*
All Industries	85.1%​	3.8%	6.3%​	4.3%​	*

Notes:

Other Services and Mining and Quarrying have been removed for disclosure purposes, but their totals are included in ‘All Industries’.

Final results, Wave 8 of the Office for National Statistics’ (ONS’) Business Impact of Coronavirus (COVID-19) Survey (BICS). (n = 5,527)

Rows might not sum to 100% due to rounding.

Businesses were asked for their trading status for period 29 June to 12 July 2020, not the reference period 15 June to 28 June 2020.

* percentage less than 1% or industry count less than 10

** These numbers are provided for completeness. Although businesses that reported as having permanently closed in a previous wave are not expected to continue to respond to subsequent waves some have continued to respond as being permanently closed.

Ad-Hoc Tables Produced for the Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy (BEIS)
Trading Status
Percentage of responding businesses, broken down by industry, UK, 15 June to 28 June 2020

Industry	Continuing to trade	Has permanently ceased trading **	Has temporarily closed or temporarily paused trading	Sample Size
Aerospace	95.8%	0.0%	4.2%	24
Arts and Heritage	34.5%	0.0%	65.5%	55
Automotive	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%	55
Aviation	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%	18
Consumer Goods	99.0%	0.0%	1.0%	96
Creative Industries and Media	83.0%	*	16.4%	377
Hospitality and Tourism	49.4%	*	50.0%	686
Maritime	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0
Motor Retail, Wholesale and Repair	98.2%	0.0%	1.8%	163
Retail (excl food)	92.2%	1.2%	6.5%	322
Sports, Events and Gambling	46.8%	*	52.6%	171
Steel	*	*	*	*
All Industries	88.9%	*	10.6%	5527

 

[Mojo]

However with hospitality now open again, 9.5 million does seem a lot, especially when non-essential workers were guided to go back to work some time ago now.

A lot of chain restaurants still seem to be closed. I'm guessing many of these companies are taking advantage of the time to get their finances in order, renegotiate with landlords and have a review as to whether they plan to reopen ever.

On our High Street we have a Pizza Express, Beefeater, Cafe Rouge and Prezzo which are all still closed. The Pizza Express is due to reopen at the end of the month and Cafe Rouge says that despite going into administration ours will not be one of the restaurants they announced previously as closing, but they don't know when it will reopen.

We also have two Greene King pubs locally, both of which are still closed despite trading normally up until 20th March.

Nationally; Pizza Express has less than 50 restaurants open out of the 470-odd the chain has. Even once the 150-ish restaurants reopen in the next fortnight it will still barely be half of them that are due to reopen, although they have warned that potentially close to 75 may be shutting for good.

 

[43066]

On our High Street we have a Pizza Express, Beefeater, Cafe Rouge and Prezzo which are all still closed. The Pizza Express is due to reopen at the end of the month and Cafe Rouge says that despite going into administration ours will not be one of the restaurants they announced previously as closing, but they don't know when it will reopen.

Let’s face it, Cafe Rouge and Pizza Express are two lacklustre chains that have been close to going to the wall for ages.

I’ll be amazed if either survives this pandemic.

 

[Mojo]

Let’s face it, Cafe Rouge and Pizza Express are two lacklustre chains that have been close to going to the wall for ages.

I’ll be amazed if either survives this pandemic.

Exactly my point - many of these chain restaurants are struggling, and by not reopening in a reasonable timeframe after the government has stated they can - it is surely just them clinging onto life for the benefit of their staff whilst they decide on next steps. After all if they made enough money then they would have already reopened surely?

As an aside, I would be sad to see the back of Pizza Express; it is without a doubt in my mind the nicest food one can buy. Shame the service is so lacklustre.