Could/should HS2 Eastern leg be shelved?

[Shrop]

There have been many media reports today about the Eastern leg being cancelled, but I can't find anything on this site other than confirmation of it going ahead. Does anyone know the reality?

So is the Daily Mail wrong again? https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/ar...rs-line-Leeds-shelved-amid-soaring-costs.html

The Eastern leg of the HS2 rail line to Nottingham, Sheffield and Leeds has been ‘shelved’ amid concerns about soaring costs.

Ministers have ordered HS2 Limited to halt all planning work on the Eastern leg and focus solely on the Western route to Manchester.

A Tory source said the Eastern leg was unlikely to be formally cancelled because of fears of a political backlash in the East Midlands and Yorkshire.

The DfT last night insisted the Eastern leg had not been formally ‘shelved’. A spokesman said the project could survive in some form when the Government’s delayed Integrated Rail Plan is finally published.

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

I think you can say it's on the back burner, so to speak.
The western leg is proceeding, with Birmingham-Crewe approved and gearing up for construction.
Crewe-Manchester is about to start the parliamentary process for approval and is expected to be approved in the next couple of years.
However, the eastern leg is delayed by the interaction with NPR proposals, along with other uncertainties about HS2's route and costs.
HS2 Ltd has said that no planning/design work is going on on the eastern leg, all their resource is currently on the western leg.

The Integrated Rail Plan, linking developments on the classic network in the midlands and north with those of HS2 and NPR, is due to be published any time now.
It is assumed that the IRP has been delayed by the Treasury until the Chancellor has done his Spending Review due to be published in November.
Until then, the pro and anti HS2 camps are lobbying fiercely for their desired outcome, in a post-Covid context of limited funds.
So I'd say, wait till the Chancellor stands up in the Commons to deliver his Spending Review for a long-term decision about the eastern leg and NPR.
The great dilemma is that the lobbying is for early progress on NPR instead of HS2, but NPR is actually dependent on HS2 completion (west and east).

There's a new critique of HS2 from Simon Jenkins in the Guardian today, claiming it will not get north of Crewe.
He does know his railway stuff, at least on station architecture.
Even so, it's a view from only one side of the argument (the anti-Boris view).

Depleted and unwanted, HS2 hurtles on as Johnson’s £100bn vanity project | Simon Jenkins | The Guardian

Britain’s new high-speed railway will not – repeat: not – get to the north of England.
It will go back and forth from London to the Midlands and its chief beneficiaries will be London commuters. All else is political spin.
This became certain last week as the government’s internal major projects authority declared phase two of the HS2 project, to Manchester and Leeds, effectively dead.
While the already-started London-to-Birmingham stretch is still marked at “amber/red” for “successful delivery in doubt”, anything north of Crewe has been designated “unachievable”.
Its multitudinous issues “do not appear to be manageable or resolvable”.
This comes not from the arms-length National Infrastructure Commission or last winter’s Oakervee report, both agreeing that going beyond Birmingham should be “reviewed”.
This was the verdict of an arm of the Treasury and Cabinet Office.

 

[Watershed]

I think you can say it's on the back burner, so to speak.
The western leg is proceeding, with Birmingham-Crewe approved and gearing up for construction.
Crewe-Manchester is about to start the parliamentary process for approval and is expected to be approved in the next couple of years.
However, the eastern leg is delayed by the interaction with NPR proposals, along with other uncertainties about HS2's route and costs.
HS2 Ltd has said that no planning/design work is going on on the eastern leg, all their resource is currently on the western leg.

The Integrated Rail Plan, linking developments on the classic network in the midlands and north with those of HS2 and NPR, is due to be published any time now.
It is assumed that the IRP has been delayed by the Treasury until the Chancellor has done his Spending Review due to be published in November.
Until then, the pro and anti HS2 camps are lobbying fiercely for their desired outcome, in a post-Covid context of limited funds.
So I'd say, wait till the Chancellor stands up in the Commons to deliver his Spending Review for a long-term decision about the eastern leg and NPR.
The great dilemma is that the lobbying is for early progress on NPR instead of HS2, but NPR is actually dependent on HS2 completion (west and east).

There's a new critique of HS2 from Simon Jenkins in the Guardian today, claiming it will not get north of Crewe.
He does know his railway stuff, at least on station architecture.
Even so, it's a view from only one side of the argument (the anti-Boris view).

Depleted and unwanted, HS2 hurtles on as Johnson’s £100bn vanity project | Simon Jenkins | The Guardian

Simon Jenkins is of course provably wrong, unless he thinks Crewe is in the Midlands. He might be in for a shock if he tried telling that to the locals!

 

[MontyP]

Simon Jenkins is of course provably wrong, unless he thinks Crewe is in the Midlands. He might be in for a shock if he tried telling that to the locals!

Simon Jenkins is always opposed to any infrastructure project. And his writing style tend to conflate fact with personal opinion. Although I'd say that he is probably right about the Eastern leg.

 

[NoRoute]

Another article reporting work on the Eastern leg had stopped:

Work on eastern leg of HS2 stops

Project's chief executive says he is awaiting guidance from government on way forward

www.business-live.co.uk

Work on the eastern leg of high-speed rail project HS2 has stopped, according to its chief executive.


The Department for Transport has told officials on the scheme to stop working on the project which will see the link extended from Birmingham to Leeds via the East Midlands.


HS2's chief executive Mark Thurston said: "We wait to be guided by the Department on what we do with the eastern link."

Given the current situation with rail passenger numbers significantly lower, the existing railways running an unsustainable deficit and the first Phase of Hs2 having seen significant cost increases, I can't see how it could continue. I'd worry that with a limited pot of public funding, to plough on would come at the cost of deep cuts to the existing network.

 

[daodao]

Simon Jenkins is of course provably wrong, unless he thinks Crewe is in the Midlands. He might be in for a shock if he tried telling that to the locals!

Cheshire is in historic Mercia, and the historic boundary between the Midlands and the north of England is along the River Mersey. From a healthcare perspective, Crewe is on the current border of NW England, with many services at Leighton Hospital provided by the University Hospital of North Midlands. From a media perspective, the evening paper is the Sentinel and the local radio station is BBC Radio Stoke.

The moot point is whether the extension of the HS2 north of Crewe will actually be built. The newspaper articles quoted in posts 1 and 2 seem to disagree about this, but agree that the eastern leg of HS2 is unlikely to be built.

 

[40129]

In principle, I'm in support of the full HS2 project going ahead.

However, I think that in the post-Covid world, those of us who support it should be wary of what appears to have happened in France, where it seems that the construction of the LGV network seems to have had adverse consequences for the classic network which appears to have suffered from a general lack of investment.

One of the main justifications for HS2 has always been that it will relieve congestion on the existing East and West Coast Main Lines. Obviously, I'm not privy to the current passenger numbers on these lines and I'm not psychic, so cannot predict the future. However, whilst off-peak travel on the WCML has increased markedly since the lifting of lockdown, from what I've seen peak time loadings are IME nothing like what they used to be. However, the WCML does carry a lot of freight for which there is no realistic alternate route (I must confess to knowing nothing about freight on the ECML). My concern would therefore be what what happen to the existing lines were HS2 to be built in full and commuter loadings into London Euston and Kings Cross not recovering?

 

[59CosG95]

Hearing lots of news stories that HS2's eastern leg has indeed been shelved due to costs. The dead hand of the Treasury strikes again...

 

[Robertj21a]

Simon Jenkins is of course provably wrong, unless he thinks Crewe is in the Midlands. He might be in for a shock if he tried telling that to the locals!

Where do you think Crewe is if it's not in the Midlands ?

 

[59CosG95]

Where do you think Crewe is if it's not in the Midlands ?

The North-West. Just about.

 

[HSTEd]

One of the main justifications for HS2 has always been that it will relieve congestion on the existing East and West Coast Main Lines. Obviously, I'm not privy to the current passenger numbers on these lines and I'm not psychic, so cannot predict the future. However, whilst off-peak travel on the WCML has increased markedly since the lifting of lockdown, from what I've seen peak time loadings are IME nothing like what they used to be. However, the WCML does carry a lot of freight for which there is no realistic alternate route (I must confess to knowing nothing about freight on the ECML). My concern would therefore be what what happen to the existing lines were HS2 to be built in full and commuter loadings into London Euston and Kings Cross not recovering?

The ECML and WCML can be rationalised so that the lower passenger loadings can be more cost efficiently transported?

The ECML and WCML incur huge costs partially because of attempts to fit a quart into a pint glass.

HS2+rationalised WCML+ rationalised ECML is still better than bloated mess WCML + bloated mess ECML.

 

[SuperNova]

Hearing lots of news stories that HS2's eastern leg has indeed been shelved due to costs. The dead hand of the Treasury strikes again...

Isn't it that the delay in IRP and no royal assent has meant works can't crack on?

 

[TheGrew]

Where do you think Crewe is if it's not in the Midlands ?

Generally, as Crewe is in Cheshire it is considered the very southern end of the North West whilst Stoke being in Staffordshire is considered the northern end of the Midlands.

I am of the opinion that the western leg links rather more major population centres and so should have priority.

 

[HSTEd]

Isn't it that the delay in IRP and no royal assent has meant works can't crack on?

And who do you think has ordered the IRP delayed?

 

[LUYMun]

This may have been asked several times, but why couldn't the Eastern Leg be built first of the two rather than the main stretch to the north west?

 

[Ethan1852]

Hearing lots of news stories that HS2's eastern leg has indeed been shelved due to costs. The dead hand of the Treasury strikes again...

My thought is that they are prioritising the line from London Euston/Birmingham/Manchester and we will still see the line up to Leeds but just delayed by a few years.

This is from the dailymail - https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/ar...rs-line-Leeds-shelved-amid-soaring-costs.html

The Eastern leg of the HS2 rail line to Nottingham, Sheffield and Leeds has been ‘shelved’ amid concerns about soaring costs.

Ministers have ordered HS2 Limited to halt all planning work on the Eastern leg and focus solely on the Western route to Manchester.

A Tory source said the Eastern leg was unlikely to be formally cancelled because of fears of a political backlash in the East Midlands and Yorkshire.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

Hearing lots of news stories that HS2's eastern leg has indeed been shelved due to costs. The dead hand of the Treasury strikes again...

Doubt it will be formally cancelled but just kicked into the long grass

 

[Bald Rick]

no royal assent has meant works

Difficult to get Royal Assent for a bill that has not been submitted!

 

[David Bullock]

I haven’t seen too much said on these (and similar threads) about how shelving the eastern leg would prevent HS2 from being any use at relieving congestion on the MML and ECML.

I understand that reducing London-Leeds journey times is maybe less of a priority but this also kicks capacity issues out of St Pancras and KGX into the long grass.

 

[HSTEd]

I haven’t seen too much said on these (and similar threads) about how shelving the eastern leg would prevent HS2 from being any use at relieving congestion on the MML and ECML.

I understand that reducing London-Leeds journey times is maybe less of a priority but this also kicks capacity issues out of St Pancras and KGX into the long grass.

Depending on what the exact layout of the Manchester HS2 station is, you could run trains into Manchester and then reverse for Leeds - and likely still beat the classic time, and remain competitive to York - assuming the TP Upgrade actually happens.

Even without platform extensions at Leeds you could get ~340m trains into two of the platforms, and York will easily take them. Only one platform could take them at Newcastle but the service density that far north would be relatively sedate.

 

[SuperNova]

And who do you think has ordered the IRP delayed?

If anything is getting binned, it's NPR.

 

[Watershed]

Doubt it will be formally cancelled but just kicked into the long grass

It might well see the 'Castlefield' treatment - in that case, the TWAO application has sat on the Minister's desk for the last 6.5 years(!).

 

[GRALISTAIR]

Doubt it will be formally cancelled but just kicked into the long grass

That makes more political sense tbh.

 

[Shrop]

Cheshire is in historic Mercia, and the historic boundary between the Midlands and the north of England is along the River Mersey. From a healthcare perspective, Crewe is on the current border of NW England, with many services at Leighton Hospital provided by the University Hospital of North Midlands. From a media perspective, the evening paper is the Sentinel and the local radio station is BBC Radio Stoke.

Maybe I could sum this up with a suggestion, namely that in railway terms, Crewe is the gateway to the Northwest, just as Bristol is the gateway to the Southwest., Fair enough?

I think you can say it's on the back burner, so to speak.
The western leg is proceeding, with Birmingham-Crewe approved and gearing up for construction.
Crewe-Manchester is about to start the parliamentary process for approval and is expected to be approved in the next couple of years.
However, the eastern leg is delayed by the interaction with NPR proposals, along with other uncertainties about HS2's route and costs.
HS2 Ltd has said that no planning/design work is going on on the eastern leg, all their resource is currently on the western leg.

The Integrated Rail Plan, linking developments on the classic network in the midlands and north with those of HS2 and NPR, is due to be published any time now.
It is assumed that the IRP has been delayed by the Treasury until the Chancellor has done his Spending Review due to be published in November.
Until then, the pro and anti HS2 camps are lobbying fiercely for their desired outcome, in a post-Covid context of limited funds.
So I'd say, wait till the Chancellor stands up in the Commons to deliver his Spending Review for a long-term decision about the eastern leg and NPR.
The great dilemma is that the lobbying is for early progress on NPR instead of HS2, but NPR is actually dependent on HS2 completion (west and east).

There's a new critique of HS2 from Simon Jenkins in the Guardian today, claiming it will not get north of Crewe.
He does know his railway stuff, at least on station architecture.
Even so, it's a view from only one side of the argument (the anti-Boris view).

Depleted and unwanted, HS2 hurtles on as Johnson’s £100bn vanity project | Simon Jenkins | The Guardian

Very sad that there seems to be credibility in the suggestion that the Eastern section of HS2 will not go ahead. The design of HS2 has been fundamentally flawed from the outset, and the lack of understanding of the needs of the UK as a country has been astounding. Covid has served to benefit those who don't want to fund the eastern arm of HS2, but with its design being so poor from the word go, it has always been a weak project and easy fodder for the press to make it fail.

 

[greyman42]

This may have been asked several times, but why couldn't the Eastern Leg be built first of the two rather than the main stretch to the north west?

Priorities as a guess.

 

[Skie]

I can see it getting to Crewe and no further, and the fallout will destroy any chances of NPR ever happening too.

 

[Roast Veg]

If anything is getting binned, it's NPR.

Right now all signs point to both being delayed indefinitely. The East/West divide strikes again!

 

[Grimsby town]

There's a new critique of HS2 from Simon Jenkins in the Guardian today, claiming it will not get north of Crewe.
He does know his railway stuff, at least on station architecture.
Even so, it's a view from only one side of the argument (the anti-Boris view).

Depleted and unwanted, HS2 hurtles on as Johnson’s £100bn vanity project | Simon Jenkins | The Guardian

There's a lot of misunderstanding and factual inaccuracies in that article. Things like HS2 not connecting with crossrail despite it doing so and Curzon Street being a mile away from New Street when the walking route is less than half that. That and some strange rambling about needing to widen the tracks of the west coast mainline to accommodate non tilt trains and saying that improved signalling on the east coast mainline would basically match HS2 journey times.

With regards to the eastern leg, I don't think its officially cancelled but I do think it'll be subject to a rethink. I'm pretty sure it will go ahead to the east midlands, maybe in line with the NIC report, because I doubt there are enough destinations to cater for 16 - 18 London trains per hour. 2 trains to Sheffield and 2 Nottingham would fill a gap and reduce capacity constraints on the MML. It'd also improve cross country journey times.

I'd also expect the section from around Goldthorpe to Leeds to go ahead to improve the journey time from Leeds to Sheffield. Including a link from that line to Doncaster and building the HS2 station at Leeds might be sensible to provide more capacity in the Leeds area and improve the London journey time from Leeds to London to under 2 hours.

It does pose the question that if the East Coast Mainline is expected to be the main route to London for the foreseeable future, how much is going to need to be spent to improve capacity / reliability. I think a £1 billion will need to be thrown at Doncaster and a quarter of a billion at Newark for grade separation etc. In documents exploring alternatives to the HS2 eastern leg it was mentioned that a new St Neots to Finsbury Park line would be needed to relieve capacity constraints around Welwyn which won't come cheap.

 

[JamesT]

This may have been asked several times, but why couldn't the Eastern Leg be built first of the two rather than the main stretch to the north west?

The report from the National Infrastructure Commission in December recommended proceeding with the Western leg as a priority, but suggested the Eastern leg could be phased. Presumably on the basis that the WCML is more congested than the other two mainlines and the benefits of the Western leg are needed sooner. https://nic.org.uk/app/uploads/RNA-Final-Report-15122020.pdf

 

[snowball]

There's a new critique of HS2 from Simon Jenkins in the Guardian today, claiming it will not get north of Crewe.

Haven't read it yet, but it's likely to be much the same one he's published about once every six months for several years past. I wonder if he gets a full fee every time. Among his usual claims is one that it's unlikely ever to get further north than the midlands.