Heading into autumn - what next?

[35B]

Do consider the actual JCVI advice though (not that I’m telling you how to parent of course).

I have - advice that (for the 13 year old) is that the balance is insufficiently in favour of vaccination to support introduction of a mass vaccination programme, based solely on the medical advantages to the recipients. Based on my knowledge of my offspring, and taking their and my wife’s opinions into account, my judgment is that the benefit is sufficiently strong that it justifies receiving the vaccination if offered, which would be the result of a broader policy decision considering the wider impact of vaccination on both society and the lives of the recipients.

 

[43066]

We do have that data, at least to an extent (we have it for overnight hospitalisations which isn't exactly the same as ICU but is still somewhat useful).

38% of those admitted to hospital between 9 August and 5 September were aged under 50. Out of those, 71% were unvaccinated, 15% had received one dose, and 16% had received two doses - the ratio in the population as a whole is roughly 30% to 10% to 60%.

I'm ambivalent about those numbers. There are certainly quite a lot of young people in hospital (well into the thousands), and the large majority are unvaccinated. But it's not at the point where it's stretching NHS capacity and it doesn't justify authoritarianism. I think those who choose not to get vaccinated are making an unwise move and the numbers bear that out, but they shouldn't be castigated.

And of course it’s worth remembering those young people ending up hospitalised are all statistical outliers. It’s perfectly rational for healthy individuals in their 20s and 30s (especially towards the lower end of that range) to simply decide they simply don’t fancy it due to the extremely low risk of serious ill effects from Covid. A small number of those young people who are too ill to be vaccinated due to other conditions will also be included in those figures.

The whole discussion about vaccine “idiots” is facile without knowing the age disposition of those unvaccinated people in ICU. But no more facile than toilet rolls and flour!

Indeed. Calling people idiots and scapegoating really, really doesn’t help. No doubt the increasing scaremongering about vaccine coverage waning, and the insistence in some quarters of other measures continuing despite very high vaccine coverage has also done a fair bit to dissuade people snd make them question what the point is. It’s also very clear the vaccine doesn’t stop spread, so the “have the jab to save grandma” argument is also weakened.

 

[DustyBin]

I have - advice that (for the 13 year old) is that the balance is insufficiently in favour of vaccination to support introduction of a mass vaccination programme, based solely on the medical advantages to the recipients. Based on my knowledge of my offspring, and taking their and my wife’s opinions into account, my judgment is that the benefit is sufficiently strong that it justifies receiving the vaccination if offered, which would be the result of a broader policy decision considering the wider impact of vaccination on both society and the lives of the recipients.

That’s fair enough; some people will have strongly opposing views and vaccinating children is an emotive subject. For me it’s a case of making an informed choice, as far as one can. It needs to work both ways though; the advice for all adults is to get vaccinated but if young healthy adults make an informed choice not to they shouldn’t be branded idiots.

 

[RPI]

Mask mandate could return if virus cases surge in autumn

Mask mandates will be one of the first levers pulled by the Government if there are concerns coronavirus is spreading at an alarming rate.

www.telegraph.co.uk

Coronavirus latest news: Mask mandate could return if virus cases surge in autumn​

35

CREDIT: CHRISTOPHER FURLONG/GETTY IMAGES

• Global Health Security Team

11 SEPTEMBER 2021 • 7:41AM

• Council tax bills will rise for millions to pay for social care
• Mandatory masks could return if virus cases surge in autumn
• Vaccine passports might be needed beyond nightclubs
• Revealed: Scientists in 'cover up' over links to Wuhan lab

Mask mandates will be one of the first levers pulled by the Government if there are concerns coronavirus is spreading at an alarming rate.
Tens of millions of adults in England will be told to wear masks indoors if cases surge dramatically this autumn, The Telegraph understands.
The move is seen as preferable to reimposing social distancing rules because it has a less direct impact on the economy.
The Prime Minister is understood to be “adamant” that a nationwide lockdown will not be reimposed in the coming months, given that so many adults have been vaccinated.
Follow the latest updates below.

Is no one in any position of authority ever going to ask "where's the evidence that the wretched things work?!"

 

[yorksrob]

Mask mandate could return if virus cases surge in autumn

Mask mandates will be one of the first levers pulled by the Government if there are concerns coronavirus is spreading at an alarming rate.

www.telegraph.co.uk

Is no one in any position of authority ever going to ask "where's the evidence that the wretched things work?!"

I suppose it's progress that he's publically refusing to countenance another lockdown.

I read that many of the scientists involved in the crisis are of the view that either a booster jab, or natural topping up of immunity with infection, will continue to provide protection against severe illness. In no way does this suggest that running around like headless chickens imposing pointless restrictions will provide any benefit.

It's a case of "something must be seen to be done".

 

[farleigh]

Basically I will carry in socialising, not staying in, travelling as I wish etc Obviously if the shops etc are shut then I can’t go in them. I suspect there will be a lot less compliance than previously because many like me have had enough and especially if it’s found that the unvaccinated are driving matters.

That said I actually don’t think there will be another lockdown possibly because of the reasons I mention above.

Thank you for replying. I think that is probably the best course of action and I hope there is no further lockdown.

I do not believe that unvaccinated will drive matters but I do believe the government would use this as a lever to impose further measures.

 

[big_rig]

So much for ‘cautious and irreversible.’

 

[RPI]

I suppose it's progress that he's publically refusing to countenance another lockdown.

I read that many of the scientists involved in the crisis are of the view that either a booster jab, or natural topping up of immunity with infection, will continue to provide protection against severe illness. In no way does this suggest that running around like headless chickens imposing pointless restrictions will provide any benefit.

It's a case of "something must be seen to be done".

You mean publicly refusing to countenance another lockdown.....like last year

 

[yorksrob]

You mean publicly refusing to countenance another lockdown.....like last year

Ha ha, yes.

I do think that there has been a material change in the circumstance now though, so such a pronouncement probably holds more weight.

 

[DustyBin]

Mask mandate could return if virus cases surge in autumn

Mask mandates will be one of the first levers pulled by the Government if there are concerns coronavirus is spreading at an alarming rate.

www.telegraph.co.uk

Is no one in any position of authority ever going to ask "where's the evidence that the wretched things work?!"

In regard to their true purpose they’ve proven to work very well!

 

[RPI]

In regard to their true purpose they’ve proven to work very well!

12 months ago I'd have written that off as being conspiracy, I'm not so quick to do so now (assuming we're barking up the same tree here)

 

[NorthKent1989]

Oh yes I am very bothered about hence my objection to such things as vaccine passports. But I also don’t tolerate people who ignore the overwhelming evidence that a couple of injections will prevent them from getting severely ill.

What percentage of young, healthy people have actual died of Covid? For the most part it’s been mild symptoms, let’s to pretend that people have had severe adverse effects from the vaccines, they’ve even highlighted a warning that teenage boys could at more risk with one of jabs (moderna I think) there’s a reason why the JVCI doesn’t recommend jabbing teenagers and the same should go for all under 40s who are least risk from dying or being hospitalised from Covid, but as I’ve said before the NHS has to get a grip or else it’ll be defunct very soon, the U.K.‘a obsession with jabbing 100% of the population is the same unrealistic obsession that Australia and New Zealand have with achieving zero Covid, to what extent are we prepared to give up our freedoms and civil liberties to defeat something that will be here forever.

 

[DustyBin]

12 months ago I'd have written that off as being conspiracy, I'm not so quick to do so now (assuming we're barking up the same tree here)

My own belief is that they were introduced following the publication of the following document:

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/882722/25-options-for-increasing-adherence-to-social-distancing-measures-22032020.pdf

The section under the heading “persuasion” is particularly interesting:

Persuasion

2. Perceived threat: A substantial number of people still do not feel sufficiently personally threatened; it could be that they are reassured by the low death rate in their demographic group (8), although levels of concern may be rising (9). Having a good understanding of the risk has been found to be positively associated with adoption of COVID-19 social distancing measures in Hong Kong (10). The perceived level of personal threat needs to be increased among those who are complacent, using hard-hitting emotional messaging. To be effective this must also empower people by making clear the actions they
can take to reduce the threat (11).

3. Responsibility to others: There seems to be insufficient understanding of, or feelings of responsibility about, people’s role in transmitting the infection to others. This may have resulted in part from messaging around the low level of risk to most people and talk of the desirability of building ‘herd immunity’. Messaging needs to emphasise and explain the duty to protect others (12, 13).

4. Positive messaging around actions: People need to see self-protective actions in positive terms and feel confident that they will be effective. Individuals also need to understand that the survival of the severely ill will be increased by the capacity of the health care system, which in turn will be increased by reducing the rise in infections now. Messaging about actions need to be framed positively in terms of protecting oneself and the community, and increase confidence that they will be effective (14).

5. Tailoring: Some people will be more persuaded by appeals to play by the rules, some by duty to the community, and some to personal risk (13). All these different approaches are needed. The messaging also needs to take account of the realities of different people’s lives. Messaging needs to take account of the different motivational levers and circumstances of different people (15).

This kind of behavioural science is what I believe underpins the mask mandate. The fact that they are also highly divisive is a bonus; I’m sure the government is more than happy to see us bickering and blaming each other whilst they get on with wrecking our economy, society and democracy.

 

[RPI]

My own belief is that they were introduced following the publication of the following document:

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/882722/25-options-for-increasing-adherence-to-social-distancing-measures-22032020.pdf

The section under the heading “persuasion” is particularly interesting:



This kind of behavioural science is what I believe underpins the mask mandate. The fact that they are also highly divisive is a bonus; I’m sure the government is more than happy to see us bickering and blaming each other whilst they get on with wrecking our economy, society and democracy.

Definitely barking up the same tree as myself

 

[DustyBin]

Definitely barking up the same tree as myself

I thought as much!

 

[43066]

In regard to their true purpose they’ve proven to work very well!

Yep. We haven’t see the last of masks, behavioural science #1. Don’t throw those exemption lanyards away just yet…

 

[Bikeman78]

Mask mandate could return if virus cases surge in autumn

Mask mandates will be one of the first levers pulled by the Government if there are concerns coronavirus is spreading at an alarming rate.

www.telegraph.co.uk

Is no one in any position of authority ever going to ask "where's the evidence that the wretched things work?!"

Notably there has been no clear difference between England and Wales/Scotland that have retained them. I do wonder when they will be abolished in Wales. I doubt that it will be before spring next year.

 

[bramling]

Notably there has been no clear difference between England and Wales/Scotland that have retained them. I do wonder when they will be abolished in Wales. I doubt that it will be before spring next year.

The government can do one if they think I am going back to masks, especially just to act as a comfort blanket for a small number of people who can’t let their dummy go.

I wouldn’t be surprised it will happen though - I get the feeling “it’s unsafe for me to commute to work - there was someone in my carriage without a mask” is going to be something heard a fair bit over the coming weeks, as more people are dragged kicking and screaming back to their substantive workplace.

The fact it’s only kicked off now over masks shows how many haven’t been near work for so long. As I’ve said before, bet they’ve been in plenty of other places though.

I’m sure the government is more than happy to see us bickering and blaming each other whilst they get on with wrecking our economy, society and democracy.

100%. A “mask wars” headline is massively preferable to “tax burden increased to highest level ever”, or “billions wasted on furlough which could have gone to the NHS”.

One would think that the scenes in the commons where the government benches were virtually 100% unmasked might have prompted some people to give the matter some serious thought, and come to the conclusion they’d been well and truly taken for a ride.

I do think some people like the idea of other people being “dirty” though, and by definition their “clean” selves need protecting. Seems to play to the egos of some.

 

[Bikeman78]

The government can do one if they think I am going back to masks, especially just to act as a comfort blanket for a small number of people who can’t let their dummy go.

I wouldn’t be surprised it will happen though - I get the feeling “it’s unsafe for me to commute to work - there was someone in my carriage without a mask” is going to be something heard a fair bit over the coming weeks, as more people are dragged kicking and screaming back to their substantive workplace.

The fact it’s only kicked off now over masks shows how many haven’t been near work for so long. As I’ve said before, bet they’ve been in plenty of other places though.

It does seem odd that people have largely gone back to pre Covid behaviour in many settings but are apparently still scared of setting foot on a train. Okay to go to the pub and stick a group hug photo on Facebook though! See also packing on to trains between Cardiff and Manchester or in North Wales for leisure trips. If people really are that scared then now might be a good time to change jobs or move house.

 

[Snow1964]

Thank you for replying. I think that is probably the best course of action and I hope there is no further lockdown.

I do not believe that unvaccinated will drive matters but I do believe the government would use this as a lever to impose further measures.

Interestingly the US Federal Government has run out of patience with those rejecting vaccine, and are making it compulsory for anyone dealing with them, and firms that want Government contracts will have to get employees done. A very big Government lever.

As for vaccination of 13-15 year olds, the rare side effects have to be balanced against catching mild Covid, missing school, and losing opportunities later in life due to weaker exam results. My own dad (born 1930) lost a lot of schooling due to WW2 and it always restricted him (even though he did evening college in early 1950s to try and catch up), so having lived with consequences of schooling gaps, I am heavily biased to giving the jabs to avoid loss of more days of education.

 

[Merseysider]

I am heavily biased to giving the jabs to avoid loss of more days of education.

Agreed. I work in a school and the negative impact on our pupils of repeatedly isolating over the last 2 years has been monstrous.

The government can do one if they think I am going back to masks

Same here. Without wishing to get into the debate again, I quite simply shan’t be wearing one, whatever the government says.

I do not believe that unvaccinated will drive matters but I do believe the government would use this as a lever to impose further measures.

You could be right. This may sound callous but I don’t care - any adult still unvaccinated deserves whatever sickness/consequence they get, with the exception of those who are medically unable to receive the vaccine. Society as a whole should not now suffer (from lockdowns etc) to protect people too lazy/indifferent/selfish to get vaccinated.

If that results in the NHS being “overwhelmed” then quite frankly it is unfit for purpose.

 

[43066]

any adult still unvaccinated deserves whatever sickness/consequence they get

In other news: any smoker deserves lung cancer; anyone who drives a car deserves to die in a car accident; anyone who hasn’t had a flu vaccine deserves to die of flu etc.

 

[DustyBin]

You could be right. This may sound callous but I don’t care - any adult still unvaccinated deserves whatever sickness/consequence they get, with the exception of those who are medically unable to receive the vaccine. Society as a whole should not now suffer (from lockdowns etc) to protect people too lazy/indifferent/selfish to get vaccinated.

I agree, but the key thing here is that unvaccinated people aren’t calling for restrictions to protect them (I’m sure there’s the odd exception as ever). The government are casting them as pariahs because they won’t do as they’re told. I’ve decided, after a lot of careful consideration, to decline the vaccine for now. I honestly can’t overstate how little fear I have of catching covid; I’m enjoying life just I did prior to covid (as far as possible anyway) and it gives me great pleasure to see others doing the same, vaccinated or unvaccinated.

 

[Merseysider]

In other news: I don’t like your opinion so I’m going to make a couple of exaggarated spurious comparisons.

Fixed that for you.

Cars serve a useful purpose, so no, obviously you don’t deserve to die for driving.

Smoking serves no useful purpose, and harms those around you, so yes if you get lung cancer due to smoking then it’s your own fault.

And refusing the vaccine without good reason serves no useful purpose, and harms those around you, so if you get sick after refusing the vaccine then it’s your own fault.

Nudging this slightly back on topic, I don’t expect to see another full lockdown this year, but I wouldn’t be surprised now if we see the Rule of 6 rear its ugly head again, whether in law or as guidance.

 

[DustyBin]

Fixed that for you.

Cars serve a useful purpose, so no, obviously you don’t deserve to die for driving.

Smoking serves no useful purpose, and harms those around you, so yes if you get lung cancer due to smoking then it’s your own fault.

And refusing the vaccine without good reason serves no useful purpose, and harms those around you, so if you get sick after refusing the vaccine then it’s your own fault.

Nudging this slightly back on topic, I don’t expect to see another full lockdown this year, but I wouldn’t be surprised now if we see the Rule of 6 rear its ugly head again, whether in law or as guidance.

A good reason could be as simple as being young fit and healthy and therefore not seeing any benefit though. That’s perfectly valid in my opinion (I appreciate opinions can differ!).

What about those who suffer severe reactions to the vaccine? Do they deserve it as they didn’t consider the risks? I think we need to be careful not to fall into the divide and conquer trap here as I agree with everything else in your post.

 

[Merseysider]

I’ve decided, after a lot of careful consideration, to decline the vaccine for now.

That’s what’s key - you’ve given thought to it and (for whatever reason) decided to wait.

There are a (probably unquantified) number of people, however, that simply don’t care either way, and they were who I was aiming my comment at.

I honestly can’t overstate how little fear I have of catching covid

Completely agree - I had it myself last year - I’ve had worse hangovers.

My primary motivation for getting the vaccine was the ability to get abroad this autumn

What about those who suffer severe reactions to the vaccine?

That’s absolutely a valid medical reason not to get vaccinated.

 

[Darandio]

And refusing the vaccine without good reason serves no useful purpose, and harms those around you, so if you get sick after refusing the vaccine then it’s your own fault.

As can those who have been vaccinated. That argument would have been great when it was thought that vaccines dramatically reduced transmission. Now it's turned out they don't and a vaccinated person can just as easily transmit the virus to anyone else.

 

[NorthKent1989]

This whole calling people idiots who don’t want the jab for xyz reason really has to stop.

It’s adding nothing to the conversation, if and that’s a big if there’s an October Lockdown then that’s on the government not on the unvaccinated, the population is 80-90% vaccinated, The whole point of getting the jab the government kept banging on about was to prevent more lockdowns, if there’s another lockdown well surprise surprise the government has lied and moved the goal posts once again.

If people have had the vaccine why are they so bothered if others haven’t?

 

[Merseysider]

As can those who have been vaccinated. That argument would have been great when it was thought that vaccines dramatically reduced transmission. Now it's turned out they don't and a vaccinated person can just as easily transmit the virus to anyone else.

You’re right, but those who are vaccinated are less likely to get sick and die and thus cost the taxpayer / require doctors to do 16 hour shifts / cause their family grief & are potentially less infectious, or infectious for less time. Taking the vaccine still has a net positive effect on society.

 

[TPO]

It does seem odd that people have largely gone back to pre Covid behaviour in many settings but are apparently still scared of setting foot on a train. Okay to go to the pub and stick a group hug photo on Facebook though! See also packing on to trains between Cardiff and Manchester or in North Wales for leisure trips. If people really are that scared then now might be a good time to change jobs or move house.

Indeed.

Covidphobia is just an excuse now IMO.

My work requires me to travel to places all over the UK and over the past couple of months it's been a nightmare. The roads are like a Bank Holiday Sunday/Friday- only every.single.day. Accommodation is more difficult to get than it was at the height of Lockdown; without the capability to kip in my van (in a quiet rail yard most often) I would have struggled of late. Even campsites are full- the number of converted vans on the road has increased muchly, and I've had to invest in extra security for my work van as suddenly vans are much more desirable (hence nickable).

There's people everywhere, everywhere is very busy. Mostly without masks (I don't believe those loose face coverings do anything to stop COVID but many do, so is an indicator). There's no fear of COVID, really there's not. Whatever people may say, in reality when it comes to a day trip out or a last minute holiday, there's no COVID fear. No, what people "fear" is having to go back to work. There's plenty money around too, the amount being spent on holiday accommodation and the vehicles on the roads tells you that.

The govt should have ended furlough a month ago.

At least this ridiculous "pingdemic" has been stopped, but should have been stamped on earlier.

As for working from home- I've no objection to that, in fact I think it's a really good thing which has potential to reduce peak flows on road/rail and make budgeting for both much easier as it's the peak capacity that costs a lot but doesn't really bring in more revenue. Encouraging long-term work from home flexibility is one of the few things that the Welsh Sennedd seems to have got right.

Unfortunately this is not over yet. The Great Crowded Staycation will be repeated next summer if the level of bookings already made for 2022 is to be believed.

Rather than taxing working people to pay for COVID mistakes (but disguised as paying for care in old age), the govt should impose a transaction tax on AirBNB plus set draconian regulations (e.g. "you can only rent out a room in a house you are in") and allow local authorities to keep the profits from rigorous enforcement of same. Ditto holiday lets, and I'd also put a 500% council tax increase on all second homes. This is linked to COVID in that houses in anywhere that is decent are now being purchased by the metropolitan elite for use as second homes and let out on AirBNB the rest of the time, making them totally unaffordable for local working families. It's an aspect of COVID that isn't mentioned much- the impact on housing availability (no wonder prices are rising).

Schools need to go back and COVID which is endemic be treated like the other seasonal respiratory infections.

But- I suspect we'll see a big outbreak of covidphobia in the meed-ja as soon as folks realise it's time to get back to work............ and calls for more lockdowns etc.

//rant over//

TPO