• Our booking engine at tickets.railforums.co.uk (powered by TrainSplit) helps support the running of the forum with every ticket purchase! Find out more and ask any questions/give us feedback in this thread!

Heading into autumn - what next?

Status
Not open for further replies.

DelayRepay

Established Member
Joined
21 May 2011
Messages
2,929
If there's one good thing about the escalating situation regarding shortages and surging gas prices, it's these stories are now overshadowing anything related to covid. These issues in themselves are creating winter concerns the Government could well believe will be more politically damaging than anything to do with covid, so chances are I think a lot of energy (no pun intended) will be focused here and less so on covid for the near future at least (or at least until we start seeing the stories of overwhelmed hospitals that we get every year).

Or until some bright spark (no pun intended either!) decides a lockdown would be a good way to conserve fuel supplies!

Seriously, I agree with you - there are bigger issues which the government need to deal with. The only concern I have is if they try to use any increase in Covid figures to distract the media from the many and various other problems this country now has to deal with.
 
Sponsor Post - registered members do not see these adverts; click here to register, or click here to log in
R

RailUK Forums

Bikeman78

Established Member
Joined
26 Apr 2018
Messages
4,545
If there's one good thing about the escalating situation regarding shortages and surging gas prices, it's these stories are now overshadowing anything related to covid. These issues in themselves are creating winter concerns the Government could well believe will be more politically damaging than anything to do with covid, so chances are I think a lot of energy (no pun intended) will be focused here and less so on covid for the near future at least (or at least until we start seeing the stories of overwhelmed hospitals that we get every year).
One mention of possible fuel shortages and people are queueing up all over the place. On the plus side, once these clowns have emptied all the filling stations my bike will still work and the roads will be quieter.
 

brad465

Established Member
Joined
11 Aug 2010
Messages
7,023
Location
Taunton or Kent
One mention of possible fuel shortages and people are queueing up all over the place. On the plus side, once these clowns have emptied all the filling stations my bike will still work and the roads will be quieter.
As a fellow cyclist I'd concur with that, except blaming the panic buyers is blaming the symptom, not the actual problems. The actual problems here are complete lack of Government planning and handling of the shortage problems, and, as they've often done with covid, the media collectively sensationalising a particular story, leading to hysteria and negative reactions. In an ideal world media behaviour would be investigated for this, but for now one advantage of the supply shortages is the media and Government are more focused on them than on what covid is doing.
 

Domh245

Established Member
Joined
6 Apr 2013
Messages
8,426
Location
nowhere

Falling infections despite more mingling.

They were*, but it would seem like positive tests are increasing once more in England - there are sustained increases in the reported numbers, and the reports by sample date are showing an increase again after a pronounced dip earlier in the month. The 'good' news is that the increase in cases seems to be almost exclusively amongst 10-14 year olds

*at the time of the ONS study, which whilst published today refers to last week
 

yorksrob

Veteran Member
Joined
6 Aug 2009
Messages
38,938
Location
Yorks

They were*, but it would seem like positive tests are increasing once more in England - there are sustained increases in the reported numbers, and the reports by sample date are showing an increase again after a pronounced dip earlier in the month. The 'good' news is that the increase in cases seems to be almost exclusively amongst 10-14 year olds

*at the time of the ONS study, which whilst published today refers to last week

Nowt to lose sleep over then.

Back to the pub.
 

MikeWM

Established Member
Joined
26 Mar 2010
Messages
4,404
Location
Ely
More emerging consequences of our very poor decisions over the last 18 months.

https://www.theguardian.com/society...with-some-patients-waiting-48-hours-for-a-bed
NHS ‘on the edge’ with some patients waiting 48 hours for a bed

As well as typical A&E cases such as car accidents and heart attacks returning to pre-pandemic levels, emergency doctors were seeing four new groups of patients, Henderson said.

They included patients who had missed out on treatment for 18 months during the pandemic and had become seriously ill, and people on elective treatment lists who were “stressed and fed up with waiting” as their condition deteriorated.

There had also been a significant increase in mental health admissions to A&E, particularly among young people, she said, as well as children presenting with viral infections “whose parents have maybe never experienced their young child being unwell because they’ve been in lockdown”.

I'm not entirely sure why heart attacks are only now 'returning to pre-pandemic levels' - I'm don't believe a heart attack obligingly waits until a pandemic is over - but the rest of this is irritatingly predictable and stuff many of us have been saying for over a year now.
 

bramling

Veteran Member
Joined
5 Mar 2012
Messages
17,753
Location
Hertfordshire / Teesdale
More emerging consequences of our very poor decisions over the last 18 months.

https://www.theguardian.com/society...with-some-patients-waiting-48-hours-for-a-bed


I'm not entirely sure why heart attacks are only now 'returning to pre-pandemic levels' - I'm not sure a heart attack obligingly waits until a pandemic is over - but the rest of this is irritatingly predictable and stuff many of us have been saying for over a year now.

Thin end of wedge I suspect.

I suspect this would all prove hard to justify for a virus where the median mortality age is 82.
 

brad465

Established Member
Joined
11 Aug 2010
Messages
7,023
Location
Taunton or Kent
More emerging consequences of our very poor decisions over the last 18 months.

https://www.theguardian.com/society...with-some-patients-waiting-48-hours-for-a-bed


I'm not entirely sure why heart attacks are only now 'returning to pre-pandemic levels' - I'm don't believe a heart attack obligingly waits until a pandemic is over - but the rest of this is irritatingly predictable and stuff many of us have been saying for over a year now.
Thin end of wedge I suspect.

I suspect this would all prove hard to justify for a virus where the median mortality age is 82.
There have been excess deaths reported by the ONS for several weeks now, albeit not in excess to the extent of previous pandemic waves. What is different this time though is that excess deaths would still exist even if nobody was reported as dying with covid, so fallout from restrictions in this way may well be being seen here.
 

takno

Established Member
Joined
9 Jul 2016
Messages
5,064
More emerging consequences of our very poor decisions over the last 18 months.

https://www.theguardian.com/society...with-some-patients-waiting-48-hours-for-a-bed


I'm not entirely sure why heart attacks are only now 'returning to pre-pandemic levels' - I'm don't believe a heart attack obligingly waits until a pandemic is over - but the rest of this is irritatingly predictable and stuff many of us have been saying for over a year now.
The thinking with heart attacks are that people often have a few warnings before the big one. It's surprisingly easy to brush these off as anything from muscle pain to indigestion, but if they are detected and taken seriously can often lead to earlier treatment much better survival rates. If heart attacks return to normal and survival rates don't go down then happy days, but the worry is that a lot more people will be coming in with less-treatable conditions or not even making it to hospital.
 

johnnychips

Established Member
Joined
19 Nov 2011
Messages
3,675
Location
Sheffield
The thinking with heart attacks are that people often have a few warnings before the big one. It's surprisingly easy to brush these off as anything from muscle pain to indigestion, but if they are detected and taken seriously can often lead to earlier treatment much better survival rates. If heart attacks return to normal and survival rates don't go down then happy days, but the worry is that a lot more people will be coming in with less-treatable conditions or not even making it to hospital.
Twenty months or so ago, if I had a vague pain in my chest, I would have got an appointment to see my doctor in person. Now…
 

bramling

Veteran Member
Joined
5 Mar 2012
Messages
17,753
Location
Hertfordshire / Teesdale
Twenty months or so ago, if I had a vague pain in my chest, I would have got an appointment to see my doctor in person. Now…

And this is being repeated many times over. Lots of people are reporting being essentially fobbed off by their GP.

There must be massive numbers of undiagnosed or late-diagnosed issues now.

Thank you NHS, you’re amazing.
 

takno

Established Member
Joined
9 Jul 2016
Messages
5,064
And this is being repeated many times over. Lots of people are reporting being essentially fobbed off by their GP.

There must be massive numbers of undiagnosed or late-diagnosed issues now.

Thank you NHS, you’re amazing.
The NHS has been failing to recruit anything like enough GPs for 10 years. That's been a training issue combined with people seeing that the job entails long unpleasant hours and deciding to pass on it. Covid and Brexit have brought it to a head, but the fact is that GPs have too many patients to even pretend to provide the service anybody expects.

I'll happily blame the NHS for a lot of things, but this is squarely on the government
 

MikeWM

Established Member
Joined
26 Mar 2010
Messages
4,404
Location
Ely
In 'slightly-less-good-news', I note that the Government last week very quietly indeed (I don't see anyone else having mentioned it at all) extended the 'number 3' emergency powers until 24th March 2022. They managed to sneak that into a different statutory instrument that is mostly to do with self-isolation rules so it wasn't trivial to find.

These are the regulations that allow local authorities to impose restrictions and/or bans on premises and events.

(I could complain that this was passed under the 'too urgent to consult Parliament' getout, despite - yet again - the fact that Parliament was sitting at the time, but we all probably assumed that was the case anyway).
 

brad465

Established Member
Joined
11 Aug 2010
Messages
7,023
Location
Taunton or Kent
The furlough scheme closes today, and with no evidence/indication of an extension or imminent reintroduction, this will likely make harsh restrictions hard to reintroduce.
 

hst43102

Member
Joined
28 May 2019
Messages
948
Location
Tyneside
Sadly it will also mean the loss of many jobs as some employers have kept people furloughed for too long.
Good thing that there are so many job vacancies at the moment. I hope everyone who is laid off can find a good, sustainable job offer.
 

al78

Established Member
Joined
7 Jan 2013
Messages
2,419
As a fellow cyclist I'd concur with that, except blaming the panic buyers is blaming the symptom, not the actual problems. The actual problems here are complete lack of Government planning and handling of the shortage problems, and, as they've often done with covid, the media collectively sensationalising a particular story, leading to hysteria and negative reactions. In an ideal world media behaviour would be investigated for this, but for now one advantage of the supply shortages is the media and Government are more focused on them than on what covid is doing.
Individuals choose how they respond to media reporting, so I would collectively blame the panic buyers for the situation we find ourselves in now, especially as we went through something similar with food and essential goods in spring 2020 and I would have thought lessons would have been learnt, but no. It really doesn't take that much effort to do a bit of research on a claim or report, the problem is people are cognitively lazy and can't be bothered to use a bit of time and mental effort to fact find, so they lap up buzzwords and phrases that are taken out of context because that requires no effort.
 

brad465

Established Member
Joined
11 Aug 2010
Messages
7,023
Location
Taunton or Kent
Good thing that there are so many job vacancies at the moment. I hope everyone who is laid off can find a good, sustainable job offer.
Unless the Government announce a massive funding for training in the relevant areas of shortage, those vacancies are not getting filled quickly, especially as existing training spaces are filled up by the covid backlog created.
 

DustyBin

Established Member
Joined
20 Sep 2020
Messages
3,623
Location
First Class
Individuals choose how they respond to media reporting, so I would collectively blame the panic buyers for the situation we find ourselves in now, especially as we went through something similar with food and essential goods in spring 2020 and I would have thought lessons would have been learnt, but no. It really doesn't take that much effort to do a bit of research on a claim or report, the problem is people are cognitively lazy and can't be bothered to use a bit of time and mental effort to fact find, so they lap up buzzwords and phrases that are taken out of context because that requires no effort.

I totally agree, this doesn't however absolve the media of their duty to act responsibly in my opinion.
 

plugwash

Established Member
Joined
29 May 2015
Messages
1,562
Individuals choose how they respond to media reporting,
The problem is there is something of a "prisoners dilemma", the best situation for everyone is if noone panics, but if other people panic and you don't then you are the one that finds yourself running out of supplies.
 

brad465

Established Member
Joined
11 Aug 2010
Messages
7,023
Location
Taunton or Kent
The ONS infection survey has reported 1 in 20 school aged children being infected, a rate that hasn't been achieved before in any age group:



One in every 20 children of secondary school age in England is infected with coronavirus, according to the latest estimates from the Office for National Statistics.
This is the highest reported rate for this age group - or any other - since the pandemic began.
Children's risk from the virus is very low, and serious illness is rare.
A single vaccine dose is now being offered to all 12 to 17-year-olds in schools across the UK.
That followed a decision by the UK's four chief medical officers that a Covid vaccine for this age group would help keep children in school and benefit the poorest families.
Previously, only teenagers with health conditions which put them at increased risk of being seriously ill with Covid were offered two doses, as well as children living in the same house as people who are very vulnerable to the virus.
The ONS data covers the week up to 25 September, and estimates a steep rise in infections in children aged 11-15 over the last few weeks, with nearly 5% now testing positive - up from 2.8% the week before.
Infections in younger primary-age children have been increasing, but much less sharply, with 2.6% testing positive.

Infections in young adults have now decreased to around 1% affected, and in older adult groups infection levels remain even lower.
Prof Kevin McConway, emeritus professor of applied statistics, at The Open University, said the infection rates in 11 to 15-year-olds were "extraordinarily high", adding that the fall in infections in young adults, who have now been vaccinated in large numbers, was "pleasing".
Around 1.2% of the UK population - or one in 80 people - is likely to be infected, the ONS says, which is little changed from the previous week.
Its estimates are based on tests carried out on a random sample of the population, whether they had symptoms or not.

Of course this age group tends to not be adversely affected in terms of severity, and these sorts of rates are unsustainable, so I'd expect a drop-off soon.
 

takno

Established Member
Joined
9 Jul 2016
Messages
5,064
Of course this age group tends to not be adversely affected in terms of severity, and these sorts of rates are unsustainable, so I'd expect a drop-off soon.
Might go a bit higher first and then drop back, but there's certainly a fairly hard limit on how long it can go on at these numbers. Good to see nobody really panicking about it anyway
 

greyman42

Established Member
Joined
14 Aug 2017
Messages
4,921
Might go a bit higher first and then drop back, but there's certainly a fairly hard limit on how long it can go on at these numbers. Good to see nobody really panicking about it anyway
Perhaps the lack of panic is due to the lack of furlough.
The maskavists might have jumped on it but perhaps they think they are now flogging a dead horse.
 

bramling

Veteran Member
Joined
5 Mar 2012
Messages
17,753
Location
Hertfordshire / Teesdale
Perhaps the lack of panic is due to the lack of furlough.
The maskavists might have jumped on it but perhaps they think they are now flogging a dead horse.

Well yes it’s a million people who now have less incentive for things to continue as they have been.

Just the Home Counties work from homes flogging the dead horse now. A relation of mine was moaning about having to use the Underground now his own WFH has finished, and needless to say moaning about people not wearing masks. When I pointed out that many people, including myself, have been using trains over the last 18 months he expressed surprise I was still alive!
 

plugwash

Established Member
Joined
29 May 2015
Messages
1,562
So it seems overall things are better at the end of september than they were at the start. Cases and deaths are rougly the same. Hospitalisatoins on the other hand are down by about 28%.
 

brad465

Established Member
Joined
11 Aug 2010
Messages
7,023
Location
Taunton or Kent
I don't know how wide this view is, but I have developed more of a "who cares" attitude recently, even more so than on the 19th July. I wonder if all the news about shortages and surging gas prices has refocused people's minds, especially as these are displacing covid news. If my mentality is similar to a broad section of the population, I really cannot see any restrictions returning being tolerated over winter, especially as the former issues dominating the headlines will be more than enough to worry about.
 

bramling

Veteran Member
Joined
5 Mar 2012
Messages
17,753
Location
Hertfordshire / Teesdale
I don't know how wide this view is, but I have developed more of a "who cares" attitude recently, even more so than on the 19th July. I wonder if all the news about shortages and surging gas prices has refocused people's minds, especially as these are displacing covid news. If my mentality is similar to a broad section of the population, I really cannot see any restrictions returning being tolerated over winter, especially as the former issues dominating the headlines will be more than enough to worry about.

Definitely some truth to this. All of a sudden the focus is going to be on cost of living issues.

That said, there's still "dragged back to the office kicking and screaming" types trying to play the "there was someone on my train without a mask, it's not safe" game. Not sure they're being listened to any more now though.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.

Top