• Our booking engine at tickets.railforums.co.uk (powered by TrainSplit) helps support the running of the forum with every ticket purchase! Find out more and ask any questions/give us feedback in this thread!

Heading into autumn - what next?

Status
Not open for further replies.
Joined
23 Jan 2016
Messages
159
For a tiny bit of balance we can add:-

* Third jabs to be offered to the most at-risk people (severely immunocompromised)
* Jabs to be offered to other most at-risk children aged 12-15 (lung and heart issues I think here)

I was hoping they’d drop the vaccine passports for internal events. I suppose it is still possible they announce they’re scrapping them before they come in, it wouldn’t be the first time something changes at the last minute, but it’s not looking good on that.
 
Sponsor Post - registered members do not see these adverts; click here to register, or click here to log in
R

RailUK Forums

ic31420

Member
Joined
23 Aug 2017
Messages
316
I haven't taken a test since this started. I'm not likely to unless I feel unwell. I don't see the point in taking several days off work when I feel fine.

Exactly. Testing for sake of testing simple means you're at risk of getting snagged on a false positive.

A local shop keeper went on hols with a large family group all rolling around I. A huge house together. She took a coviditus test to come back, and was persuaded to do another when she arrived.

One of the tests came back as a positive, she isolated closed her shop, took several days off and several staff had to isolate too.

She felt fine, took several more left and PCR tests all negative, but yet they would not accept it was a false positive and she was stuffed for 10 days.

I think the winter will be a disastrous. An elderly relative of mine fell and broke his femur. It was a wait of four hours for an ambulance then once at hospital a four hour wait in the ambulance to be seen.

I've worked in the emergency services for a long time. That's not unusual or new. The ambo just have scoring system they stick to. If the patient is breathing and has a pulse with no arterial bleeding you'll be waiting hours. If they're conscious it'll be quicker to start your medical degree and treat yourself when qualified.

They take no account of age conditions etc until it effects the clinical condition. The fact that Mavis 92 has fallen off the bus into a puddle in the snow has no bearing until hypothermia starts to affect it.

Ambo Cat 2 not allocated is a running joke and a bye word for we'll do it tomorrow. Cat 3 forget it. It's why mental health cases / people feeling suicidal just get left.

I've known open compound fractures be taken to hospital in the back of a car.

In fairness it isn't the crew fault they're Job to job to job. There are too calls many of which don't really need and ambo. I think there is huge amounts of specialists that are rarely utilised and there have been masses of government targets which while well meaning have caused issues. One being using RRVs (cars) to get a paramedic to scene quickly and stop the response time clock. Being single crewed you could take an ambo off the road and create two RRVs to stop the clock and meet the target. Sounds good? Problem was RRV gets there stops the clock, but Mavis still needs transporting so the RRV requests an ambo wagon to transport. So now you still have a requirement for a double crewed ambo but with fewer to start with because you have dispanded them to create the RRV. So in the end 2 vehicles and three staff to deal with Mavis. That said RRVs have reduced as this problem has been addressed.
 

berneyarms

Established Member
Joined
26 Nov 2013
Messages
2,812
Location
Dublin
Notice how none of those measures were passed through Parliament? I spoke with a friend yesterday who said that losing our freedoms is worth it to control the virus for a short time,

I ended the message saying “three weeks to flatten the curve…”

I do wonder where we’ll be in six months if passports will be dropped, Ireland and Denmark are dropping all covid measures and rightly so.
Just to clarify, Ireland are not dropping all Covid measures.

Masks will still be required on public transport, in healthcare settings, and in indoor retail.
 

philosopher

Established Member
Joined
23 Sep 2015
Messages
1,349
This headline from the i newspaper suggests plans for tighter restrictions are already being drawn up
The Government has drawn up plans for an October “firebreak” Covid lockdown should hospitalisations continue at their current level and threaten to overload the NHS, a senior Government scientist has told i.

The member of the Government’s Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage) said the UK is about to enter “an extended peak” of infections and hospitalisations, which are in danger of pushing the NHS beyond breaking point and could force the Government to re-introduce restrictions over the school half term period at the end of next month.

A full lockdown is unlikely and would be a last resort, but there are a range of measures the government could introduce.
 

bramling

Veteran Member
Joined
5 Mar 2012
Messages
17,754
Location
Hertfordshire / Teesdale

Andyh82

Established Member
Joined
19 May 2014
Messages
3,529
‘Drawing up plans’ doesn’t necessarily mean anything those.

I’d expect, or indeed hope, plans have been drawn up for various eventualities

Yes I’m not sure the Welsh one did much, but I’m sure the lack of one in England was thrown in Boris’s face for about 6 months afterwards
 

bramling

Veteran Member
Joined
5 Mar 2012
Messages
17,754
Location
Hertfordshire / Teesdale
‘Drawing up plans’ doesn’t necessarily mean anything those.

I’d expect, or indeed hope, plans have been drawn up for various eventualities

Yes I’m not sure the Welsh one did much, but I’m sure the lack of one in England was thrown in Boris’s face for about 6 months afterwards

Thrown in Boris’s face shouldn’t need to be a problem - a decent leader would be happy to defend their actions. Even Blair clearly genuinely feels Iraq was the right thing to do, and will defend it.
 

yorksrob

Veteran Member
Joined
6 Aug 2009
Messages
38,958
Location
Yorks
This headline from the i newspaper suggests plans for tighter restrictions are already being drawn up

It's frustrating that we're never told what proportion of those being hospitalised have chosen not to get vaccinated. I'm loathe to abide by restrictions that are a result of people choosing not to help themselves.

Perhaps that's why the government is being opaque on the issue. It knows the population won't wear it.
 

adc82140

Established Member
Joined
10 May 2008
Messages
2,930
As is predictable, any October lockdown is being denied by members of government on the breakfast TV rounds. The source wasn't even "an unnamed government source" as the papers like to quote, but a member of SAGE who is dictating their personal fantasy to the press. I'm sure the government does have plans for further restrictions, in the same way that they have plans for martial law in the event of a nuclear holocaust. I'm fairly certain someone made a mischievous FOI request a while ago asking about plans for a zombie apocalypse and yes they had plans for that as well.
 

NorthKent1989

Established Member
Joined
13 May 2017
Messages
1,902
So if we have an October lockdown, what is the point in pushing the vaccine and the push to get everyone vaccinated? The vaccine was touted as our route back to freedom but this signifies that that was yet another lie, Does this mean that the vaccine aren’t as effective? Must we still have to have passports?

I may not be able to go to venues but I’ll be damned if I have to give up seeing my family and friends just to “save the NHS” again, I won’t give up living my life again not for this or any government or the NHS, and I think there’ll be a lot of people thinking this way.
 

DelayRepay

Established Member
Joined
21 May 2011
Messages
2,929
I may not be able to go to venues but I’ll be damned if I have to give up seeing my family and friends just to “save the NHS” again, I won’t give up living my life again not for this or any government or the NHS, and I think there’ll be a lot of people thinking this way.

I am the same. In the previous lockdown, I followed the rules. I didn't always agree with the rules, but I am not naturally inclined to break the law.

If there is another lockdown (I don't think there will be) then it will not stop me seeing my family. I am not alone in this view - most people I speak to, even those who actively called for more lockdowns last year, seem to have a similar view. I am happy to break the law, in the knowledge we don't have enough police to enforce it or enough courts to deal with the fines.

Never thought I'd write something like that to be honest.
 

Smidster

Member
Joined
23 Oct 2014
Messages
561
I think it is a going to be a very tough winter - Covid numbers are much higher than this time last year, we have a massive backlog and other diseases are likely to make a comeback as people get together again.

I am almost certain that some restrictions will return, most likely the safety blanket of Masks, before the end of this month and then likely an extension of Vaccine Passports to follow shortly after.

I don't however think we will ever get as far as "Lockdown"

Hope we have all enjoyed the "Good Times" over the Summer.
 

yorksrob

Veteran Member
Joined
6 Aug 2009
Messages
38,958
Location
Yorks
I think it is a going to be a very tough winter - Covid numbers are much higher than this time last year, we have a massive backlog and other diseases are likely to make a comeback as people get together again.

I am almost certain that some restrictions will return, most likely the safety blanket of Masks, before the end of this month and then likely an extension of Vaccine Passports to follow shortly after.

I don't however think we will ever get as far as "Lockdown"

Hope we have all enjoyed the "Good Times" over the Summer.

Considering the majority of the problems built up this time are as a result of previous lockdowns, I should hope we don't get as far s lockdown.
 

james60059

Member
Joined
6 Jul 2006
Messages
839
Location
Hinckley
A colleague got ‘pinged’ and rung in work to say she was self-isolating (even though this was not mandatory). Another colleague saw her out shopping and reported her. I believe a ‘tea with no biscuits’ meeting followed.

Same happened last month, however the work colleague - who should have been isolating - was out in the park playing football with his kids, the look on his face when he seen me was priceless. He didn't know my Mum lived nearby and I was just visiting :lol:.
 

102 fan

Member
Joined
14 May 2007
Messages
769
I think it is a going to be a very tough winter - Covid numbers are much higher than this time last year, we have a massive backlog and other diseases are likely to make a comeback as people get together again.

I am almost certain that some restrictions will return, most likely the safety blanket of Masks, before the end of this month and then likely an extension of Vaccine Passports to follow shortly after.

I don't however think we will ever get as far as "Lockdown"

Hope we have all enjoyed the "Good Times" over the Summer.


If covid numbers are higher than when there wasn't a vaccine, at what point can we ask ' was it effective?'.

It'll certainly lead to less getting vaccinated, as many will certainly wonder what's the point.
 

Cdd89

Established Member
Joined
8 Jan 2017
Messages
1,453
covid numbers are higher than when there wasn't a vaccine, at what point can we ask ' was it effective?'.

If we imagine 1000 Covid-infected people of average (1%) risk, 10 of which would have become ill enough to need hospitalisation:

With a 100% vaccination rate, only 1 of those 10 people would need hospitalisation.

With a 90% vaccination rate, about 2 of those 10 people would need hospitalisation.

It’s not a matter of the vaccine being ineffective, it’s the tiny percentage of unvaccinated higher-vulnerability people putting disproportionate stress on healthcare.

My hope is that a five fold reduction is still good enough (bearing in mind the definition of overwhelmed is partly a social one). But if it isn’t, solving the vaccination problem could almost halve the Covid burden overnight. I would prefer that it is solved by genuinely persuading people rather than by, for example, declining to treat them. But I would expect every avenue (no matter how unpalatable) to be explored before imposing another Lockdown, because we simply can’t withstand another one of those.
 

Grecian 1998

Member
Joined
27 Oct 2019
Messages
417
Location
Bristol
The report about the October firebreak is in The Independent. It seems fairly unlikely they have access to sources about government policy which other newspapers don't. The recent trend has been for the government to leak proposals to The Telegraph (can't think why that might be) to see what the reaction is.

The Sunday Independent did announce as a front page exclusive in January 2006 that the then government were planning a Beeching Mk II by shutting various lightly used lines as can be seen here:


Nearly 16 years later it hasn't been mentioned again. Whilst I certainly wouldn't be amazed if there are some restrictions, I'd take any newspaper exclusive with a hefty pinch of salt.
 

102 fan

Member
Joined
14 May 2007
Messages
769
If we imagine 1000 people of average (1%) risk, 10 of which would have become ill enough to need hospitalisation:

With a 100% vaccination rate, only 1 of those 10 people would need hospitalisation.

With a 90% vaccination rate, about 2 of those 10 people would need hospitalisation.

It’s not a matter of the vaccine being ineffective, it’s the tiny percentage of unvaccinated higher-vulnerability people putting disproportionate stress on healthcare.

My hope is that a five fold reduction is still good enough (bearing in mind the definition of overwhelmed is partly a social one). But if it isn’t, solving the vaccination problem could almost halve the burden overnight. I would prefer that it is solved by genuinely persuading people rather than by, for example, declining to treat them. But I would expect every avenue (no matter how unpalatable) to be explored before imposing another Lockdown, because we simply can’t withstand another one of those.


Quoting percentages in that fashion, while all very erudite, will do absolutely nothing in the general publics eye.

In the real world people will just see increased cases with a vaccine, compared to less without.
 

MikeWM

Established Member
Joined
26 Mar 2010
Messages
4,404
Location
Ely
It's frustrating that we're never told what proportion of those being hospitalised have chosen not to get vaccinated.

It is probably rather hard at this point to distinguish between those who *could* not be vaccinated with those who have chosen not to. Those in the former category are going to be among the most vulnerable to Covid, so that skews the figures somewhat.

There's a reason why the NHS figures have the percentage of those 80+ that have been vaccinated as much lower (~93%) than those in lower age groups (for 75-79 they claim 100%, so the figures are rather suspect, but the point is the same).

I'm loathe to abide by restrictions that are a result of people choosing not to help themselves.

Any restrictions will be a political choice by the government. You should direct your irritation in that direction rather than help their 'divide and rule' strategy.

--

It’s not a matter of the vaccine being ineffective, it’s the tiny percentage of unvaccinated higher-vulnerability people putting disproportionate stress on healthcare.

It strikes me that this is a problem with the healthcare system, if it can't cope with a 'tiny percentage' - many of whom, as I say above, will have been unable to be vaccinated anyway.

--

In the real world people will just see increased cases with a vaccine, compared to less without.

It is - well, interesting - that we see significantly more cases, more hospitalisations, and more deaths at this point than we did at the same time last year, when no-one had been vaccinated. The same is being seen in Israel, and in the northwestern states of the US, among others.
 

Cdd89

Established Member
Joined
8 Jan 2017
Messages
1,453
Any restrictions will be a political choice by the government. You should direct your irritation in that direction rather than help their 'divide and rule' strategy.
I know it doesn't sound it, but I'm not irritated with the unvaccinated - there's no point having a choice if people aren't free to exercise it in the 'unapproved' direction, moreover I have no doubt that the concerns around vaccination are genuinely held.

It's purely the observation that if we reach the point where another lockdown is politically inevitable (people want it, media calling for it, opposition calling for it) - and as you say, I will not be one of those supporting it! - then there are things that could have been done to give ourselves almost twice as much headroom in terms of Covid-related admissions. I suppose you could see that as divide and rule, I personally see it as demanding another barrier before accepting a lockdown.

It strikes me that this is a problem with the healthcare system, if it can't cope with a 'tiny percentage' - many of whom, as I say above, will have been unable to be vaccinated anyway.
Most unvaccinated people above around 50 are unvaccinated through choice. A tiny percentage of a very large number is still a large number, and in London the numbers are unsettlingly high in the age groups likely to lead to hospital admissions. 32% of those aged 40-49, 22% of those aged 50-59, 18% of those aged 60-69, 15% of those aged 70-79.

I know two such people in real life (one of them, 62 with underlying health conditions, has been on the receiving end of no end of persuasion from me to get vaccinated, but ultimately it's his decision!). Hopefully there is substantial natural immunity in those groups.
 

MikeWM

Established Member
Joined
26 Mar 2010
Messages
4,404
Location
Ely
then there are things that could have been done to give ourselves almost twice as much headroom in terms of Covid-related admissions.

Such as? The entire political, media and medical establishment has run relentlessly with the vaccination message for 9 months now. There has been continual cajoling, coercing, threatening, and ludicrous bribes for pizzas and cheap taxis.

Short of holding people down and forcing a needle into them, what else could have been done?

(For what it's worth, I do have one suggestion : they should have been honest about the vaccines from the start, rather than make unrealistic claims. That they wouldn't be 100% effective and they wouldn't be 100% safe, but on balance would be worth it for {some subset of the population}. I'd have viewed the whole drive rather more favourably if they'd been upfront about such things).

Most unvaccinated people above around 50 are unvaccinated through choice. A tiny percentage of a very large number is still a large number, and in London the numbers are unsettlingly high in the age groups likely to lead to hospital admissions. 32% of those aged 40-49, 22% of those aged 50-59, 18% of those aged 60-69, 15% of those aged 70-79.

Sounds like we have something approximating to a control group then, compared to the rest of the country. Are hospitalisations/deaths currently running much higher in London than the rest of England?
 

Cdd89

Established Member
Joined
8 Jan 2017
Messages
1,453
(For what it's worth, I do have one suggestion : they should have been honest about the vaccines from the start, rather than make unrealistic claims. That they wouldn't be 100% effective and they wouldn't be 100% safe, but on balance would be worth it for {some subset of the population}. I'd have viewed the whole drive rather more favourably if they'd been upfront about such things).
I don't think we're as far apart as it may seem. If it had been decided that we would not vaccinate anyone under 50 (or say we had charged for under 50s to receive a vaccine), and in return we would not entertain a lockdown irrespective of the healthcare situation nor discriminated against the unvaccinated, I would have been entirely on board with that and have gladly not been vaccinated.

Sounds like we have something approximating to a control group then, compared to the rest of the country. Are hospitalisations/deaths currently running much higher in London than the rest of England?
To be honest, I don't know - it's a lot of effort to work that out because London skews younger (for example), may have more natural immunity, etc. But we do already know the impact of being vaccinated on the likelihood of being admitted to hospital; unlike with many other interventions it is something that can be directly measured. As above, I have no interest in any of this unless/until we are at the point where another lockdown is inevitable; so it's effectively advance notice of a hypothetical future position :)
 

Bishopstone

Established Member
Joined
24 Jun 2010
Messages
1,476
Location
Seaford
I think it is a going to be a very tough winter - Covid numbers are much higher than this time last year, we have a massive backlog and other diseases are likely to make a comeback as people get together again.

I am almost certain that some restrictions will return, most likely the safety blanket of Masks, before the end of this month and then likely an extension of Vaccine Passports to follow shortly after.

I don't however think we will ever get as far as "Lockdown"

That’s where my thinking is. The virus doesn’t care that people have got bored of it.
 

adc82140

Established Member
Joined
10 May 2008
Messages
2,930
That’s where my thinking is. The virus doesn’t care that people have got bored of it.
Why focus on this particular virus versus the many other winter respiratory viruses that can land you in a lot of trouble if you're vulnerable. Which we have been successfully dealing with for decades without a fuss.
 

Eyersey468

Established Member
Joined
14 Sep 2018
Messages
2,161
Why focus on this particular virus versus the many other winter respiratory viruses that can land you in a lot of trouble if you're vulnerable. Which we have been successfully dealing with for decades without a fuss.
Given that over the last 18 months only Covid seems to have mattered I can't say I am surprised they are still focusing on it
 

adc82140

Established Member
Joined
10 May 2008
Messages
2,930
In fact this article shows that the factors that seem to be currently pushing some people towards wanting more lockdowns are nothing new:


More than 20 hospitals in England have had to declare a black alert this week after becoming so overcrowded that they could no longer guarantee patient safety and provide their full range of normal services.

Unprecedented numbers of patients requiring care has led to at least 23 hospital trusts declaring they cannot cope since Monday, inquiries by the Guardian have established.

Struggling hospitals have been forced to take highly unusual steps in order to manage a surge in demand for care. They include cancelling cancer operations, treating adults in children’s wards and even closing a birthing centre to help cope with a sudden influx of patients who need to be admitted for treatment.

Hospitals are expected to come under even greater strain over the next few days as unusually cold weather sweeps across much of the country, which doctors fear could prompt a spike in serious breathing problems, among other conditions.

University hospitals of Leicester NHS trust was under so much strain on Tuesday that it declared a “system critical incident” – even higher than a black alert – and had to make patients wait in ambulances before being offloaded into the care of A&E staff.

The Royal Surrey hospital in Guildford, which is used by many of health secretary Jeremy Hunt’s constituents, declared black escalation status on Monday because it had become “extremely challenged” by the sheer number of patients whom it needed to find a bed for. At one point that day it had 27 patients who needed a bed but nowhere to put them.

Lewisham hospital in south London became so full on Monday it had run out of beds and in an email to staff it described the situations as “critical” and “not safe”. The hospital had nowhere to put the next patient brought in as an emergency by ambulance, it added.

Under guidance which NHS England issued to NHS acute trusts last October ahead of this winter, hospitals were told to declare what is called a black alert when they have become “unable to deliver comprehensive care [and] there is increased potential for patient care and safety to be compromised”.

The NHS document outlining the operational pressures escalation levels (Opel) system explains that Opel 4 means that “decisive action must be taken ... to recover capacity and ensure patient safety” in the face of “rising system pressure”. That black alert is what most of the 23 trusts have gone onto this week, though some have described it as a “serious internal incident” or in similar terms.

The Royal College of Emergency Medicine, which represents A&E doctors, warned that the already chaotic situation in the NHS could get even worse as the winter weather worsens and that the A&E system is at risk of breaking.

“Emergency departments are overflowing with patients, internal major incidents are being declared around the country and staff in emergency departments are struggling to cope with the immense demand being placed on their services,” said Dr Taj Hassan, president of the Royal College of Emergency medicine.

“These crowded environments are stretching the clinical workforce to their limits and, more importantly, at times are unsafe for patients.”

He urged ministers and NHS leaders to draw up an urgent action plan to rescue A&E care to avoid the quality of care patients receive starting to deteriorate. “Without dedicated funding and planning, both patients and staff will increasingly suffer”, he added. However, it is understood that reports of a package of emergency funding for A&E units are wide of the mark and that the Department of Health will not be producing any more money, despite mounting problems.

On Tuesday the Royal United hospital in Bath closed its Paulton Birth Centre for two weeks, which is usually used by women having a low-risk pregnancy who want a natural birth, and began using it to house medical patients instead.

That was in 2017. Anyone suggesting back then that putting the country in lockdown to deal with the crisis would have been dismissed as some sort of wacko.
 

Bantamzen

Established Member
Joined
4 Dec 2013
Messages
9,726
Location
Baildon, West Yorkshire
Before we get too carried away with the idea, the media have been speculating more restrictions for months now. For most of the leadup to the summer holidays they were gleefully pronouncing that countries like Spain would go on the red list. This is happening because they can, they don't need to report what is happening any more, just what someone thinks might happen. They are crystal ball gazing. At this point I'd advise everyone to no longer follow the links, and those people who have copy & paste as much as the story to these forums as possible.

Less clicks = less scare stories.
 

Bikeman78

Established Member
Joined
26 Apr 2018
Messages
4,550
That’s where my thinking is. The virus doesn’t care that people have got bored of it.
No but looking at past pandemics, people getting bored of them and any associated restrictions is exactly how they have ended. Obviously people still get infected and die but the majority just get on with their lives.
 

bramling

Veteran Member
Joined
5 Mar 2012
Messages
17,754
Location
Hertfordshire / Teesdale
No but looking at past pandemics, people getting bored of them and any associated restrictions is exactly how they have ended. Obviously people still get infected and die but the majority just get on with their lives.

I suspect this is where we will end up. However the media and politicians seem to be doing their absolute best to prolong this point from being reached.

Also when this *properly* starts to hurt a critical mass of people in their real-life pockets. So far the cost has largely been borne by business owners, much of the rest of the cost has been "hidden" in the form of inflation, interest rate cuts and the like. But this is now starting to change, the second tax rise is now here (the first being the frozen allowances previously announced) - and a central manifesto pledge broken at that. Over the next year we're going to see plenty more of all this.

I hope it was all worth it just so that Karen from the Home Counties didn't have to get the train to work and could go out for a couple of extra meals per week.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.

Top