Heading into autumn - what next?

[DustyBin]

What is the problem with the numbers? I see cases rising but still not translating into a huge uptick in hospital admissions and death, just like the last 3 months. What am I missing?

You’re not missing anything, some people will latch onto whichever metric best supports their agenda (I suspect you already knew that and it was a rhetorical question!).

 

[Peter Mugridge]

Edit: Those emojis were entered as <colon><p>, like PCR:negative. If anybody knows how to prevent that, please advise.

Leave a space in it, thus:

PCR: positive


Now.... those 43,000 false negatives... are they being re-tested and added to the current week's figures, do we know?

 

[P Binnersley]

Only people who took tests in the last 14 days are being asked to re-test. Too late for the rest as Covid has (hopefully) gone. Isolation is based on the first positive test/start of symptoms so most people are out of time.

COVID-19: Public urged to get retested after false negative results at Newbury Showground in Berkshire

An investigation was launched after reports from residents concerned about the accuracy of results, and the health authorities say a number of other facilities nationally may also have been affected.

news.sky.com

 

[Bantamzen]

A lab in the West Midlands has been closed for producing five weeks' worth of false negatives, meaning infected people just carried on with their normal lives, so many others could have been infected. It was only that so many reported feeling unwell even after the all-clear that the 'rogue' lab was brought to account.

They may have produced up to 43K positives, that isn't fully clear yet. It is entirely possible that the LFTs were giving false positives, and given that most tests originated from the South West it could just as easily indicate a dodgy batch of them. So far this year I have ordered two sets of tests from the NHS, and one privately for a fit to fly test. Every time they have been different brands, but all made in China. Given that we have ordered over a billion of these things alone for the NHS, the chances of there being poor quality tests as part of those orders is reasonably high.

 

[NorthKent1989]

I do feel that most people (60-70%) have moved on from Covid and therefore are reluctant to return to any restriction.

Right now there seems to be a cold going around which I’ve had, and quite frankly this cold was worse than when I had covid, I took three days off and returned to work, there was no panic, quite a few people I know have had this cold and they’ve been pragmatic about it and getting on with it.

I know there’s still a few panicky types lurking around waiting for any excuse to lockdown again but there isn’t enough justification, I do think a “soft” plan b will be attempted that will include a test option but it’ll be the government milking this crisis because they don’t want to let go of the level of control the people have handed to them these last 18 months

 

[DelayRepay]

Looking at the numbers it seems inevitable that we will soon invoke "Plan B" as the snails pace of the booster / kids roll out means things are going sideways in a hurry.

I never really supported vaccinating kids (apart from those with specific vulnerabilities). But as this is the approach we've adopted then we should do it well. There is a lot of media coverage about the schools immunisation service not having capacity, as well as kids missing their vaccine due to the '28 days after testing positive' rule (although these kids will have a degree of immunity from their infection anyway). So if I was the government I would not be invoking Plan B, but I would be directing resources to rapidly complete the kids and booster vaccine programmes.

I'm also hearing a lot of problems booking NHS flu jabs so I'd probably use some of the Covid vaccine centres to deal with that problem, too.

 

[DustyBin]

I do feel that most people (60-70%) have moved on from Covid and therefore are reluctant to return to any restriction.

Right now there seems to be a cold going around which I’ve had, and quite frankly this cold was worse than when I had covid, I took three days off and returned to work, there was no panic, quite a few people I know have had this cold and they’ve been pragmatic about it and getting on with it.

I know there’s still a few panicky types lurking around waiting for any excuse to lockdown again but there isn’t enough justification, I do think a “soft” plan b will be attempted that will include a test option but it’ll be the government milking this crisis because they don’t want to let go of the level of control the people have handed to them these last 18 months

This is the thing, if restrictions are reintroduced it won’t be out of necessity, it will be the result of the government panicking and kowtowing to the pro-restriction mob, or simply because as you suggest they want to retain the unprecedented level of control they have over our everyday lives. Covid itself isn’t the issue at this point as far as I’m concerned…

 

[adc82140]

With no furlough to fall back on, the government can't reintroduce any measures that would impact on the functioning of any businesses whatsoever.

Additionally, I think there has been an attitude change from the public at large since the hike in National Insurance. A lot of people have twigged that staying at home watching Netflix on government handouts doesn't come for free.

 

[DustyBin]

With no furlough to fall back on, the government can't reintroduce any measures that would impact on the functioning of any businesses whatsoever.

Additionally, I think there has been an attitude change from the public at large since the hike in National Insurance. A lot of people have twigged that staying at home watching Netflix on government handouts doesn't come for free.

You’re absolutely right, however I don’t take as much comfort from this as I should on account of anything being possible…

 

[adc82140]

The media seems to be awash again with the "top scientists" predicting the end of time. This is all part of the "nudge" towards getting people to have a booster dose. The whole thing's becoming rather transparent now. I have declined my booster. I am not clinically vulnerable, I have faith in the vaccine developers' statements that a booster isn't needed, and I have wide ranging immunity from previous Covid infection. Morally it's wrong pushing 3rd doses for those who don't need them, when some countries have only just started giving 1st doses.

 

[duncanp]

You’re absolutely right, however I don’t take as much comfort from this as I should on account of anything being possible…

Watch the budget next Wednesday closely.

If the government tries to introduce, or even just talks about, "furlough mark 2" or a support package for businesses to "help them through a difficult winter", then it will be a sign that they think that heavier restrictions are more likely than not to be needed over the winter.

If there is no such talk, then it will be a sign that the government believes their COVID Winter Plan is going to be adequate for now.

The budget will also lay bare the economic cost of the lockdowns, something which has been swept under the carpet for far too long.

Once the costs of the lockdown, and the consequences for everyone (higher taxes) becomes apparent, it will be much more difficult for the government to do anything more than perhaps nag us all to wear masks without really meaning it.

You only have to look at the situation in London where masks are theoretically compulsory on the tube, yet compliance is around 50% and enforcement is negligible.

 

[DustyBin]

The media seems to be awash again with the "top scientists" predicting the end of time. This is all part of the "nudge" towards getting people to have a booster dose. The whole thing's becoming rather transparent now. I have declined my booster. I am not clinically vulnerable, I have faith in the vaccine developers' statements that a booster isn't needed, and I have wide ranging immunity from previous Covid infection. Morally it's wrong pushing 3rd doses for those who don't need them, when some countries have only just started giving 1st doses.

It’s almost as if Pfizer has some kind of vested interest in supplying as many shots as possible and are lobbying for boosters, although I’m struggling to think what that vested interest could possibly be?! (Removes tinfoil hat).

 

[adc82140]

It’s almost as if Pfizer has some kind of vested interest in supplying as many shots as possible and are lobbying for boosters, although I’m struggling to think what that vested interest could possibly be?! (Removes tinfoil hat).

Apparently there are 20 million Pfizer doses sitting in warehouses in the UK. Did someone over order?

 

[DustyBin]

Apparently there are 20 million Pfizer doses sitting in warehouses in the UK. Did someone over order?

That’s ridiculous. Whilst I appreciate we deliberately over ordered incase some of the vaccines proved to be ineffective, I can remember at the time thinking the excess was absolutely huge.

 

[Bikeman78]

I do feel that most people (60-70%) have moved on from Covid and therefore are reluctant to return to any restriction.

Right now there seems to be a cold going around which I’ve had, and quite frankly this cold was worse than when I had covid, I took three days off and returned to work, there was no panic, quite a few people I know have had this cold and they’ve been pragmatic about it and getting on with it.

Loads of people round my way have had that cold too. I felt rough for two days, much better on day three and back to work the day after. It took me a month to shift the cough though.

 

[Arglwydd Golau]

Loads of people round my way have had that cold too. I felt rough for two days, much better on day three and back to work the day after. It took me a month to shift the cough though.

The cold...started mine 3 days before August bank Holiday and didn't feel 100% 'til the end of September....on three occasions started to feel better but it returned with a vengeance, never had a cold like that before even though I've always had bad colds.

 

[Eyersey468]

Watch the budget next Wednesday closely.

If the government tries to introduce, or even just talks about, "furlough mark 2" or a support package for businesses to "help them through a difficult winter", then it will be a sign that they think that heavier restrictions are more likely than not to be needed over the winter.

If there is no such talk, then it will be a sign that the government believes their COVID Winter Plan is going to be adequate for now.

The budget will also lay bare the economic cost of the lockdowns, something which has been swept under the carpet for far too long.

Once the costs of the lockdown, and the consequences for everyone (higher taxes) becomes apparent, it will be much more difficult for the government to do anything more than perhaps nag us all to wear masks without really meaning it.

You only have to look at the situation in London where masks are theoretically compulsory on the tube, yet compliance is around 50% and enforcement is negligible.

I completely agree, the economic cost of the last 18 months has been ignored far too long. I think quite a few people are going to be in for a big shock.

 

[brad465]

I do feel that most people (60-70%) have moved on from Covid and therefore are reluctant to return to any restriction.

Right now there seems to be a cold going around which I’ve had, and quite frankly this cold was worse than when I had covid, I took three days off and returned to work, there was no panic, quite a few people I know have had this cold and they’ve been pragmatic about it and getting on with it.

I know there’s still a few panicky types lurking around waiting for any excuse to lockdown again but there isn’t enough justification, I do think a “soft” plan b will be attempted that will include a test option but it’ll be the government milking this crisis because they don’t want to let go of the level of control the people have handed to them these last 18 months

What I think has helped people move on has been all the crises surrounding gas price surges, general shortages, most especially petrol when that was a problem. Newspapers can only have one major front page headline, and more than enough has been going on to displace covid coverage. If these things get worse in the winter, and/or poor weather causes problems, then this will also push covid down the press coverage. That said there'll be a challenge when the inevitable overwhelming of hospitals comes around this winter, given even without covid they've been overwhelmed every winter.

 

[initiation]

Prediction - there is currently a spike in 'cases' in the young, particularly those age 19 and under. This is driving the 'scary' case numbers.

If we can resist any restrictions for a few more weeks, we will see this age-segmented mini-wave subside and cases numbers will start to fall again without imposition of restrictions (like they did in July/Aug).


The end to this has to be to stop regular mass testing. I am not sure that will happen this winter, but if we get through it without any restrictions it is plausible for it to happen next year.

 

[duncanp]

Prediction - there is currently a spike in 'cases' in the young, particularly those age 19 and under. This is driving the 'scary' case numbers.

If we can resist any restrictions for a few more weeks, we will see this age-segmented mini-wave subside and cases numbers will start to dramatically fall again without imposition of restrictions (like they did in July/Aug).

This is very true.

You only have to look at the age related "heat map" for England to see this, with the highest case rates amongst school age children, and a secondary "wave" of cases amongst the age groups who are old enough to be their parents.

Sooner or later this "wave" of cases will subside, as happened in Scotland, where cases are currently flatlining. (unlike the rest of the UK)

Fortunately I think the government has got a little more bottle than this time last year (partly due to Sajid Javid being the Health Secretary as opposed to that useless ****** Matt Hancock) and is aware of what is driving the increase in cases.

The continuing roll out of the vaccines to 12 - 18 year olds, coupled with the vaccine booster rollout, will help to slow down the increase in cases over the next month or so. I think the government is waiting for this to happen before making any decisions about what (if anything) to do next.

I see that the COVID bedwetters have turned their attention to the COP26 climate change conference in Glasgow, saying that this will fuel a "surge" in COVID cases throughout the world, as delegates return to their home countries/

No doubt at Christmas time they will try and ban Santa Claus from delivering presents. After all, if he visits everyone's house in one night, isn't he the ultimate "superspreader"?

 

[DelayRepay]

No doubt at Christmas time they will try and ban Santa Claus from delivering presents. After all, if he visits everyone's house in one night, isn't he the ultimate "superspreader"?

Santa can still come but instead of the traditional mince pie and glass of brandy we will be asked to leave him a bottle of hand sanitizer and a face mask.

 

[duncanp]

Santa can still come but instead of the traditional mince pie and glass of brandy we will be asked to leave him a bottle of hand sanitizer and a face mask.

Or he will have to "...keep everyone safe...." by using a "...contactless delivery method...." (ie dropping the presents down the chimney, rather than coming down the chimney himself and placing the presents underneath the Christmas tree.

And all the reindeer will need to be vaccinated, and the sleigh will need to be sanitised beforehand.

 

[initiation]

Worth noting that Plan B for England (covid vax papers, some face masks, heightened communication) is basically what Wales has at the moment. Guess who has the highest case rate at present...


Reading the plan B footnotes here it links to various ONS surveys

COVID-19 Response: Autumn and Winter Plan 2021

www.gov.uk

Coronavirus and the social impacts on Great Britain - Office for National Statistics

Indicators from the Opinions and Lifestyle Survey covering the period 22 September to 3 October 2021 to understand the impact of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic on people, households and communities in Great Britain.

www.ons.gov.uk

The implied support for measures such as face coverings are based on these surveys.
For example...in the period 22/09-03/10 it is claimed:

• 72% of people wore one for the whole public transport journey (85% for all, or part of)
• 86% wore one while shopping

Does anyone who actually goes out into the real world believe those numbers represent reality?

 

[DelayRepay]

The implied support for measures such as face coverings are based on these surveys.
For example...in the period 22/09-03/10 it is claimed:

• 72% of people wore one for the whole public transport journey (85% for all, or part of)
• 86% wore one while shopping

Does anyone who actually goes out into the real world believe those numbers represent reality?

Neither of these figures are believable. Even when mask wearing was mandatory, I don't think we had 86% wearing them in shops (taking into account those who had valid exemptions and those who just chose not to). And it's certainly not been anywhere near that in any shop I've been to for several weeks. Maybe there's a missing decimal point?

 

[Silver Cobra]

The implied support for measures such as face coverings are based on these surveys.
For example...in the period 22/09-03/10 it is claimed:

• 72% of people wore one for the whole public transport journey (85% for all, or part of)
• 86% wore one while shopping

Does anyone who actually goes out into the real world believe those numbers represent reality?

From my experience of travelling on trains recently, the number of people wearing masks is more around the 40-50% mark. Also, in the supermarket I work at, there's definitely far fewer than 86% of customers wearing masks (I'd say around 30-40%).

Of course, my experiences won't necessarily correlate to the wider country, but I would highly doubt the numbers are really as high as the survey suggests.

 

[Class 33]

From my experience of travelling on GWR trains between Bristol, Weymouth, Bournemouth and Worcester within the past few months, it's more like about 95% of people NOT wearing masks. Which is great to see!

 

[quantinghome]

This is very true.

You only have to look at the age related "heat map" for England to see this, with the highest case rates amongst school age children, and a secondary "wave" of cases amongst the age groups who are old enough to be their parents.

Sooner or later this "wave" of cases will subside, as happened in Scotland, where cases are currently flatlining. (unlike the rest of the UK)

Fortunately I think the government has got a little more bottle than this time last year (partly due to Sajid Javid being the Health Secretary as opposed to that useless ****** Matt Hancock) and is aware of what is driving the increase in cases.

The high level of cases in school age children and their parents shown on the heat map disguises what is happening among the 70+ age groups. It is the cases in this latter group which is the concern, as they are the main driver of hospitalisations and fatalities. Until a few weeks ago the case rates in ages 70+ had been dropping gradually, which was why we saw drops in hospitalisations and fatalities. That trend has now reversed. The government need to pull their finger out on boosters or this trend of increasing hospitalisations and deaths will continue.

 

[duncanp]

The high level of cases in school age children and their parents shown on the heat map disguises what is happening among the 70+ age groups. It is the cases in this latter group which is the concern, as they are the main driver of hospitalisations and fatalities. Until a few weeks ago the case rates in ages 70+ had been dropping gradually, which was why we saw drops in hospitalisations and fatalities. That trend has now reversed. The government need to pull their finger out on boosters or this trend of increasing hospitalisations and deaths will continue.

Looking at the heat map over the past month, the rise in cases seems to be amongst the 65 - 80 age group.

Case rates for people aged 80+ have barely moved even in recent weeks, and it surely is no coincidence that these were the people who were the first to receive their booster jabs, with the NHS vaccine booster program starting on 16th September.

You are absolutely right that the government needs to get a move on with the vaccine booster program, but with time I think that the increase in cases in the 65 - 80 age group will slow and then be reversed.

I think much of the increase in the over 65 age group is down to the rise in cases that one might expect at the beginning of the respiratory virus season at this time of year.

 

[Andyh82]

I get the sense the media is turning back towards ramping up the Covid stories now

They’ve been distracted by fuel shortages, lorry driver shortages, and trying to whip up various crisis, but have got bored of that now. There is only so many times they can report on the same story day after day.

The fact more restrictions in Wales and/or Scotland has resulted in either the same or a worse situation than England will be completely ignored, as the mainstream media doesn’t care about those nations. We’ve seen this recently with botched vaccine passport launches and inconsistent rules receiving no more than a footnote 20 minutes into a bulletin.

 

[Bikeman78]

Worth noting that Plan B for England (covid vax papers, some face masks, heightened communication) is basically what Wales has at the moment. Guess who has the highest case rate at present...


Reading the plan B footnotes here it links to various ONS surveys

COVID-19 Response: Autumn and Winter Plan 2021

www.gov.uk

Coronavirus and the social impacts on Great Britain - Office for National Statistics

Indicators from the Opinions and Lifestyle Survey covering the period 22 September to 3 October 2021 to understand the impact of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic on people, households and communities in Great Britain.

www.ons.gov.uk

The implied support for measures such as face coverings are based on these surveys.
For example...in the period 22/09-03/10 it is claimed:

• 72% of people wore one for the whole public transport journey (85% for all, or part of)
• 86% wore one while shopping

Does anyone who actually goes out into the real world believe those numbers represent reality?

I can believe 72% for train journeys wholly within Wales but it's not even close to that on trains coming in from England. Most people don't bother to put on a mask when they cross the border if they're not already wearing one.