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Heading into autumn - what next?

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Silver Cobra

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And now the calls for Plan B to be immediately put into action have begun...


Some Covid restrictions must immediately be reintroduced if England is to avoid "stumbling into a winter crisis", health leaders have warned.

The NHS Confederation said ministers' "Plan B" back-up strategy, including mandatory face coverings in crowded and enclosed spaces, should be implemented.

UK cases have been rising sharply but deaths are well below the winter peak.

The government says it has "absolutely no plan" for further measures but is keeping a "very close eye" on the data.

Daily Covid cases have been above 40,000 for seven days in a row, with 43,738 new infections reported on Tuesday.

Another 223 deaths were recorded, the highest since March, although daily figures are often bigger on Tuesdays.

I honestly feel there will never be an end to this whole COVID saga.
 
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Watershed

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And now the calls for Plan B to be immediately put into action have begun...




I honestly feel there will never be an end to this whole COVID saga.
Oh dear. Here we go again. This is honestly like some kind of pantomime.

I knew that, as soon as the government announced a plan B, it wasn't a case of if it was going to be implemented, but when.

Unfortunately most people still see face coverings and vaccine passports as 'non intrusive' measures. There seems to be no appreciation of the fact that, despite these measures, Wales and Scotland have worse case rates etc. than England.

You see people commenting on news articles with such tripe as:
These measures seem to work elsewhere, they do not impinge on our civil liberties and are easy to implement. Surely it's better to do something simple and proven now rather than panic at some future point and introduce more restrictive measures?

:rolleyes: with such attitudes, we are never going to truly return to normal.
 

yorksrob

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As expected, the NHS now feels empowered to call for extraordinary measures to mitigate its own annual crisis.
 
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adc82140

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How very dare you criticise the heroes in the church of the NHS
.
.
/s

Oh dear. Here we go again. This is honestly like some kind of pantomime.

I knew that, as soon as the government announced a plan B, it wasn't a case of if it was going to be implemented, but when.

Unfortunately most people still see face coverings and vaccine passports as 'non intrusive' measures. There seems to be no appreciation of the fact that, despite these measures, Wales and Scotland have worse case rates etc. than England.

You see people commenting on news articles with such tripe as:


:rolleyes: with such attitudes, we are never going to truly return to normal.
All that's happening now is the same as happened in Scotland a month or so ago. It's just that England has a higher population, so the numbers will be greater. I note that the c. 7000 drop in daily infections was barely reported on yesterday. The catch up figures for deaths was the media hook.

They were obsessed yesterday with the UK having the "highest infection rate" which is clearly nonsense. The numbers are the highest, but they failed to adjust for total population. Per head of population we are sitting at no. 21 in the world.
 
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Andyh82

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Yes the increase in cases, hospitalisation and deaths is currently the main headline on BBC Breakfast and BBC News Online
 

duncanp

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As expected, the NHS now feels empowered to call for extaordinary measures measures to mitigate its own annual crisis.

And if we implement restrictions this time "..to protect our precious NHS..." (excuse me whilst I go and throw up) , what's the betting that they will call for similar measures every autumn?
 

Eyersey468

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Given this government's track record how can we believe them when they say there won't be another lock down?

And if we implement restrictions this time "..to protect our precious NHS..." (excuse me whilst I go and throw up) , what's the betting that they will call for similar measures every autumn?
That wouldn't surprise me either
 

Watershed

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On a related note, Daniel Finkelstein has a piece in The Times today (the leading article), where he admits:
Lockdown sceptics were right about one thing
We've been dodging a question that should have been answered months ago: how many Covid deaths can we live with?

Of course, the article is full of the usual litany of nonsensical arguments which you get in the mainstream media, for example:
[Lockdown sceptics] pressed their point about economic trade-offs even at the moment when there really weren't any, because Covid-19 was so bad that people would have stayed at home even if they weren't told to.

But I am nevertheless glad that the issue has been raised in a relatively prominent manner such as this. Hopefully it will make more people realise that we're going to be stuck in this cycle forever, if we don't define the conditions under which we're prepared to live with Covid.
 

philosopher

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And if we implement restrictions this time "..to protect our precious NHS..." (excuse me whilst I go and throw up) , what's the betting that they will call for similar measures every autumn?
The other issue, if Plan B is implemented, will then there be demands for tougher measures. Prof Stephen Reicher has already suggested a ‘Plan C’ is required.

On Sky News the UK business minister Kwasi Kwarteng has ruled out a future lockdown in England. Asked about Prof Stephen Reicher of Sage’s call for a “plan C” and a new lockdown, Kwarteng said
 

Smidster

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Didn't take long to progress from "Plan B" to "Well at least we won't have a full lockdown"

If only we could get to the end of the week when Half-Term will act as a natural break for kids - Unfortunately I think we will have a Press Conference either today or tomorrow to implement restrictions.

Of course rates will then reduce - not because of Vaccine Passports / Masks but simply because we will reach the peak of the wave and there aren't many kids left without anti-bodies.

After 3 months of near normality and doing everything we have been told to it is just so depressing. Of course not just us - Latvia, despite having all these wonderful restrictions already, is heading back into lockdown for a month.
 

Jamiescott1

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I tested positive on a lfd test and followed this up with a pcr test which was also positive.
Did my tests count as 2 positive tests or 1?

If 2 then this could be behind the high case numbers as lots of younger people regularly take lfd through school and college
 

Yew

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I'm struggling to see how that could be justified, hospital admissions are almost 20% lower than early September. Perhaps it's time to replace 'cases' with 'incidents of the sniffles'.
 

35B

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I tested positive on a lfd test and followed this up with a pcr test which was also positive.
Did my tests count as 2 positive tests or 1?

If 2 then this could be behind the high case numbers as lots of younger people regularly take lfd through school and college
1 case - the PCR is a confirmation of the lateral flow.

Where the young are concerned, the issue is straightforwardly that there are a significant number of school pupils catching Covid, leading to a growing number of absences - including teachers. In one of my local schools, masks have been reintroduced in indoor communal areas to try to mitigate the spread; another has stopped after school clubs because of the levels of absence.
 

takno

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I tested positive on a lfd test and followed this up with a pcr test which was also positive.
Did my tests count as 2 positive tests or 1?

If 2 then this could be behind the high case numbers as lots of younger people regularly take lfd through school and college
Just one. The fact that you had an LFD test to hand and were being actively encouraged to use it is what makes the difference against other countries.

We've got millions of people with no symptoms who wouldn't even know about it in other countries dutifully swizzling a stick up their nose twice a week, and achieving nothing other than helping build the case for social and economic ruin.
 

Jamesrob637

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Definitely bring back the masks if it means places stay open and nobody has to go back on furlough. Pubs/coffee shops/cinemas and the like may lose a little trade here and there, however 99% of those I've asked say there's nothing worse than driving/walking past shut establishments during normal hours.
 

takno

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Definitely bring back the masks if it means places stay open and nobody has to go back on furlough. Pubs/coffee shops/cinemas and the like may lose a little trade here and there, however 99% of those I've asked say there's nothing worse than driving/walking past shut establishments during normal hours.
Why would masks keep places open?
 

Bantamzen

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I tested positive on a lfd test and followed this up with a pcr test which was also positive.
Did my tests count as 2 positive tests or 1?

If 2 then this could be behind the high case numbers as lots of younger people regularly take lfd through school and college
As others have said, it will count only as 1. The PCR acts as a confirmation that the LFT result was correct. However where a positive LFT test counts towards the stats, if a PCR then returns a negative result then the positive test is removed from the stats.
 

brad465

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For several weeks deaths, as reported by the ONS, have been in excess regardless of the number of covid registered ones. Anyone concerned about covid deaths should be as equally concerned about all other forms, but given media reporting I doubt equal concern is widespread.
 

Smidster

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Definitely bring back the masks if it means places stay open and nobody has to go back on furlough. Pubs/coffee shops/cinemas and the like may lose a little trade here and there, however 99% of those I've asked say there's nothing worse than driving/walking past shut establishments during normal hours.

Problem with that thinking is that there is no real evidence that masks make a significant difference to Public Health.

As long as we maintain the current level of contact between people then a few people wearing a flimsy piece of cloth in Tesco isn't going to make a lick of difference - as you can see in Scotland and Wales at the moment where they have masks but also figures that are as high as they are in England.
 

43066

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Definitely bring back the masks if it means places stay open and nobody has to go back on furlough. Pubs/coffee shops/cinemas and the like may lose a little trade here and there, however 99% of those I've asked say there's nothing worse than driving/walking past shut establishments during normal hours.

Because masks have done such a fantastic job at preventing lockdowns and getting us back to normal over the last year and a half…
 

DustyBin

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For several weeks deaths, as reported by the ONS, have been in excess regardless of the number of covid registered ones. Anyone concerned about covid deaths should be as equally concerned about all other forms, but given media reporting I doubt equal concern is widespread.

Funnily enough I’ve just looked at all cause deaths to see the overall excess. You’re correct; non-covid excess deaths are up but for some reason that doesn’t seem to matter. The other notable thing is that excess deaths in Wales with its wonderful restrictions are running at nearly twice the rate of England’s. We need to hold our nerve and ride out the current “storm” - or in other words live with covid as I thought we going to do.
 

43066

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We need to hold our nerve and ride out the current “storm” - or in other words live with covid as I thought we going to do.

Indeed. And, most importantly, the NHS is going to have to learn to live with it, too.

If the NHS can’t cope with its (annually recurring) winter crisis then I’m afraid the fault is with the health service. The solution cannot be preventing the rest of us from living our lives, despite what some senior NHS staff-with-a-God-complex seem to think. The tail is well and truly starting to wag the dog.
 

adc82140

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Definitely bring back the masks if it means places stay open and nobody has to go back on furlough. Pubs/coffee shops/cinemas and the like may lose a little trade here and there, however 99% of those I've asked say there's nothing worse than driving/walking past shut establishments during normal hours.
There is no furlough to go back on. The money ran out. We are now paying it back with increased taxes.
 

nw1

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I just hope they don't try to put in another lockdown.

The time has come now in my view where the problems lockdowns cause (and if there's a lockdown this winter, will there be one every winter?) are going to outweigh the problems they prevent. Do we want catastrophic economic damage and mass poverty, because the economy is only working for 7 months of the year, April to October?

If it's just things like mask wearing, that's fine. As for vaccine passports, if it's large events I don't have a problem but if it's doing a Lithuania and requiring them in supermarkets that is completely over the top and will stop people doing even the most basic, essential activities.

The trouble is that Brexit and its fall-out has shown that this government is quite prepared to do huge damage to keep itself popular and in power. It almost feels like they are playing a game with us: make things over-lax (people standing on a bus? is that really advisable), cases go up, they introduce lockdown, people want lockdown due to the high cases, they stay popiular, they eventually (after an over-extended period of time, well into spring) end lockdown, make things over-lax, people live a normal life again, they stay popular, and so the cycle repeats.

And the problem with this government in particular, but the majority of politicians in general, is that they live a very privileged life and would be protected from any fall-out from their actions.
 

Cdd89

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The statistic that jumped out at me, looking at all-cause mortality just now, is the all-cause mortality statistics by vaccination status.

Vaccination statusCovid as a percentage of all deaths
Not vaccinated37.4%
Fully vaccinated0.8%

I respect the decision of anyone not to get vaccinated, but reject the idea that this group should drive policy; and I suspect most unvaccinated people wouldn’t wish for this either.
 

quantinghome

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As expected, the NHS now feels empowered to call for extraordinary measures to mitigate its own annual crisis.
The effects of Covid weigh heavily on the NHS. Infection control measures need to be kept in place, reducing capacity, while simultaneously it has to deal with a persistently high Covid case load. This continues to take resources away from other areas and the backlog increases even more. This is the price we pay for "learning to live with Covid".

We need to hold our nerve and ride out the current “storm” - or in other words live with covid as I thought we going to do.
Sounds great but what does it actually mean? What level of fatalities can we tolerate as a price for 'living with Covid'? The level of tolerance is bound to vary significantly from person to person.
 

Bikeman78

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Oh dear. Here we go again. This is honestly like some kind of pantomime.

I knew that, as soon as the government announced a plan B, it wasn't a case of if it was going to be implemented, but when.

Unfortunately most people still see face coverings and vaccine passports as 'non intrusive' measures. There seems to be no appreciation of the fact that, despite these measures, Wales and Scotland have worse case rates etc. than England.

You see people commenting on news articles with such tripe as:


:rolleyes: with such attitudes, we are never going to truly return to normal.
What people say and do are very different. I can think of just two parents at my kids' school that wear a mask. Rather amusingly, the wife of one of them doesn't bother. She did at the start of term but has given up. On the subject of schools, various news headlines about record numbers of children testing positive which then go on to say that most of them feel fine and don't even know they have it. So why not stop testing and have people stay at home if they actually feel unwell? Given how fast it seems to be spreading amongst children, it won't be long before it runs out of people to infect.
 

Cdd89

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Sounds great but what does it actually mean? What level of fatalities can we tolerate as a price for 'living with Covid'? The level of tolerance is bound to vary significantly from person to person.
And upon whether we consider unvaccinated adult deaths as part of such a tolerance. Respectfully, I don’t think we do — national policy on restrictions cannot be driven by the outcomes of this very small group.
 

adc82140

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My child's school is back in "bubbles". The communications from the school are shocking, and there is general Mumsnet hysteria ensueing, one parent is trying to take their child to the local testing site daily. One is keeping their child off school even though they are well. There is a small group of parents, me included, that are questioning the sanity of these people. It's notable that all of us asking the questions work in various clinical roles in the NHS. I have written to the school asking why they are telling parents to get their child PCR tested if they have a runny nose. No satisfactory response. PCR testing isn't free. It might be free at the point of delivery, but it's your and my taxes paying for it.
 

Bantamzen

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The effects of Covid weigh heavily on the NHS. Infection control measures need to be kept in place, reducing capacity, while simultaneously it has to deal with a persistently high Covid case load. This continues to take resources away from other areas and the backlog increases even more. This is the price we pay for "learning to live with Covid".
The biggest single effect on the NHS in the last few decades has been underinvestment. NHS bosses are simply hiding behind covid to disguise all the other issues, and you are empowering them to continue to do so them with comments like that I'm afraid.

Sounds great but what does it actually mean? What level of fatalities can we tolerate as a price for 'living with Covid'? The level of tolerance is bound to vary significantly from person to person.
What levels of death through flu, cancer, dementia are we prepared to accept?
 
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