Heading into autumn - what next?

[35B]

Unrelated to other comments, I'm involved in running an event tomorrow evening. The organiser (very much ex-army) got in touch this afternoon asking whether he should cancel, expressing particular concern about how people would circulate. He has been persuaded to keep going.

Having dealt with him before, I would not have expected him to react in this way.

 

[brad465]

Seems like Boris Johnson is hoping that the half term holiday will help to bring COVID cases down.

We won't see the impact of the half term break for a couple of weeks, so it will be the middle of November before the government decides what to do about Plan B.

Boris Johnson is banking on October half-term to help bring Covid cases down

The Prime Minister is hoping that less mixing among pupils can help bring infections under control.

inews.co.uk

According to the latest ONS infection survey, around 8% of school aged children (Yr7-11) had covid that week, more than double the % of the next highest group of 2-Yr6 around 3%, with every other age group (where all the vaccine administering has been as well) around or just below 1%. If anything needs imposing to try and control covid it should be for schools only. I think improving ventilation will help a lot and not impact on children's education/wellbeing, and while debatable whether it's necessary, the vaccine rollout in this group ought to help. As alluded to here half term will of course go a long way in the form of less mixing overall.

 

[35B]

There are more factors in play than just age. An obese 49 year old is far more likely to come a cropper than a fit 51 year old.

Indeed. And as I said, these are averages. They are, as I understand them, true at a population level and also, on the same logic, for an individual - meaning that my risk now if I catch Covid is ~20% higher than it was in March 2020, simply because of the passing of time.

 

[greyman42]

There are more factors in play than just age. An obese 49 year old is far more likely to come a cropper than a fit 51 year old.

Yes, obesity is a major factor which people seem reluctant to discuss or do anything about.

 

[Bikeman78]

Depending on who you believe, asymptomatic transmission even in adults is rare enough not to be an issue and the vaccines aren't very effective at preventing infection (don't take my word for it, Jenny Harries actually stated the latter yesterday). The vaccines primary purpose was to prevent serious illness and death, which they are demonstrably doing. Like you I'm struggling to see how vaccinating children solves anything. Who knows what to believe anymore, they appear to be making it up as they go along and contradicting themselves at every turn....

I'm glad it's not just me. Fortunately my children are too young to have the vaccine. In other news, I've read that the majority of people going to hospital are still aged 85 and over. Again, how will vaccinating school children make much difference to this?

 

[bramling]

Yes, obesity is a major factor which people seem reluctant to discuss or do anything about.

Of course, because this means taking some personal responsibility. Far easier to blame it all on other people being "dirty" by not taking a vaccine, not stringing a bit of fabric round their face, or having the audacity to sneeze. Unfortunately this narrative suits the government, as whilst people are bickering over who's not wearing a mask on the 0730 from Harpenden no one is asking questions as to why the NHS is claiming to be on its knees at this point.

 

[greyman42]

Of course, because this means taking some personal responsibility. Far easier to blame it all on other people being "dirty" by not taking a vaccine, not stringing a bit of fabric round their face, or having the audacity to sneeze. Unfortunately this narrative suits the government, as whilst people are bickering over who's not wearing a mask on the 0730 from Harpenden no one is asking questions as to why the NHS is claiming to be on its knees at this point.

Spot on.

 

[adc82140]

Of course, because this means taking some personal responsibility. Far easier to blame it all on other people being "dirty" by not taking a vaccine, not stringing a bit of fabric round their face, or having the audacity to sneeze. Unfortunately this narrative suits the government, as whilst people are bickering over who's not wearing a mask on the 0730 from Harpenden no one is asking questions as to why the NHS is claiming to be on its knees at this point.

The NHS itself isn't claiming to be on its knees. The doctors union says it is, and some mysterious body called the "NHS Confederation" which is not an official body like NHS England or NHS Providers. They both have an agenda.

 

[greyman42]

The NHS itself isn't claiming to be on its knees. The doctors union says it is, and some mysterious body called the "NHS Confederation" which is not an official body like NHS England or NHS Providers. They both have an agenda.

A lot of people do not even realise that the BMA is a union and as such, the BMA is happy to masquerade as a medical body. I get the impression that most people think that the BMA is a group of elite doctors and that whatever they say is gospel.

 

[kez19]

The NHS itself isn't claiming to be on its knees. The doctors union says it is, and some mysterious body called the "NHS Confederation" which is not an official body like NHS England or NHS Providers. They both have an agenda.

I believe the woman from the NHS Confederation was on Channel 4 news last night (yes where are these NHS third parties popping up from? The media love giving these people attention, I be suspicious on this whole thing, being honest it’s unnerving to me as to how the media believes certain people regardless but fail to challenge them if wrong I wonder why?), can I ask RT to intervene maybe they could shed a light?

I’m using wiki as the source here: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/NHS_Confederation

The NHS Confederation, formerly the National Association of Health Authorities and Trusts, is a membership body for organisations that commission and provide National Health Service services founded in 1990. The predecessor organisation was called the National Association of Health Authorities in England and Wales.[1]

It has offices in England, Wales (The Welsh NHS Confederation) and Northern Ireland (the Northern Ireland Confederation for Health and Social Care).[2]

Website: https://www.nhsconfed.org/

seemed to be paid membership/subscription (all other info onsite or via Google)

 

[DustyBin]

Yes, obesity is a major factor which people seem reluctant to discuss or do anything about.

It certainly is:

https://www.worldobesityday.org/assets/downloads/COVID-19-and-Obesity-The-2021-Atlas.pdf

As you say though, it’s rarely mentioned.

 

[davews]

In post #793:
The paper letters from the NHS contain special thermochromatic ink that shows as a holographic image on a genuine certificate, and changes to the word ‘copy’ on a photocopied certificate. Certificates with the word ‘copy’ on them will not be accepted.

A quick test scan of my NHS letter certificate in my Canon scanner produced a nice copy without that alleged 'copy' mark, though obviously the copy was not holographic. The problem with the letter is that it is a single A4 paper and not really suitable to carry in your wallet for frequent use. Many of us don't have mobiles, or even ones compatible with the NHS app. But I do have a nice bit of cardboard given me at the test centre that has exactly the same information on it which has sat in my wallet since February.

 

[HSTEd]

According to the latest ONS infection survey, around 8% of school aged children (Yr7-11) had covid that week, more than double the % of the next highest group of 2-Yr6 around 3%, with every other age group (where all the vaccine administering has been as well) around or just below 1%. If anything needs imposing to try and control covid it should be for schools only. I think improving ventilation will help a lot and not impact on children's education/wellbeing, and while debatable whether it's necessary, the vaccine rollout in this group ought to help. As alluded to here half term will of course go a long way in the form of less mixing overall.

Well ultimately I'd argue the opposite.

If anything we need to impose restrictions everywhere but in schools.

Ultimately the primary danger of schools having a major wave is that they will drive cases into the surrounding population, even if the cases wouldn't have occurred naturally. (A reservoir of infection can induce significant numbers of infections elsewhere in the population even if R in those populations is <1)

On the other hand we need people in schools to get it to remove schoolchildren as a reservoir of infection moving forward, given the total failure of the school vaccination programme.

So we need the school wave to burn as rapidly as possible but avoid as many overspill cases as possible.

Note that case rates in Adults are only really taking off in populations of about the age you'd expect the parents of schoolchildren to be.

 

[RPI]

The plot thickens.... (it doesn't, but thankfully more are seeing through the crap)

Whether it’s cock-up or conspiracy, officials are still feeding the public misleading statistics

Hospitalisation figures do not paint full picture, with as many as a quarter of those listed having been admitted for another reason

www.telegraph.co.uk

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Whether it’s cock-up or conspiracy, officials are still feeding the public misleading statistics​

Hospitalisation figures do not paint full picture, with as many as a quarter of those listed having been admitted for another reason

BySarah Knapton, SCIENCE EDITOR21 October 2021 • 4:26pm

The misuse of statistics has been one of the major criticisms levelled at politicians during the pandemic, with dubious figures and modelling often cited to justify draconian interventions.
So it was reassuring to find out on Thursday that the head of the UK Statistics Authority was also concerned about the misrepresentation of data by the Government.
Speaking at the Public Administration and Constitutional Affairs committee, Sir David Norgrove told MPs that “we’ve intervened more during the pandemic and made more comments than in the years before”.
“With statistics, it’s usually cock-up rather than conspiracy,” he added. “They are under pressure and they get themselves into a hole and we have to help dig them out.”
Yet despite this, nothing seems to be changing.
At a press conference from Downing Street on Wednesday evening, Dr Jenny Harries, the chief executive of the UK Health Security Agency, took the public through slides showing that there were currently 7,891 people in hospital with Covid in the UK.
What she failed to mention is that this figure does not only include people admitted with Covid, but also those who test positive for coronavirus while in hospital for another condition.
Hospitals were instructed to distinguish between the two groups earlier this year, but so far it has not filtered down into the official figures.

In fact it is only possible to find the data by scrolling to the very bottom of the “Hospital Activity” page of the NHS website. Even then, the figures are woefully out of date.
At the most recent count for England on Oct 12, 26 per cent of the overall cases were not primarily Covid.
If that was extrapolated to Dr Harries’ British data, it would mean that more than 2,000 people included in the Government’s press conference figure are actually in hospital for other causes.
A similar problem can be seen in the daily reported death figures published on the Government’s coronavirus dashboard. On Tuesday, many experts seized on 223 reported deaths to argue that Britain should enact Plan B restrictions.
But the reported death data does tend to jump around depending on the day of the week and reflects deaths over several days. Look at the figures by “date of death”, and it is clear to see the situation is largely plateauing.

Dr Jason Oke, a senior statistician at the University of Oxford, pointed this out earlier this week, saying: “As we have said right from the beginning, we need to focus on deaths by date of occurrence, not deaths by date reported.
“Reporting Tuesday’s numbers – always the highest – in isolation, tends to exaggerate things, and gives no indication of current trends, which has if anything been slowly falling through September and October, [and] no guarantee of future trends of course.”
A quick look at the figures from the Office for Statistics Regulation (OSR) show a marked increase in cases reported to the regulator over the past year.

Between April 1 2020 and March 31 2021 the OSR dealt with 323 cases, three times the normal volume, and the highest number to date.
Nearly 70 per cent were related to the pandemic and half involved complaints over quality, reliability and trustworthiness.
At the committee hearing, Prof Sir Ian Diamond, the national statistician, said he had instigated “data masterclasses” for MPs and civil servants, in an attempt to improve the use of data.
But he admitted: “I’m not going to pretend you can do one data masterclass and flick a switch and everything is perfect.”
The upside is that the Government now knows it is scrutinised by members of the public who are contacting the regulator in higher numbers than ever. If statisticians cannot drive improvement, maybe the wrath of voters will.
Related Topics

• UK coronavirus lockdown,
• Conservative Party,
• Coronavirus

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[kez19]

The plot thickens.... (it doesn't, but thankfully more are seeing through the crap)

Whether it’s cock-up or conspiracy, officials are still feeding the public misleading statistics

Hospitalisation figures do not paint full picture, with as many as a quarter of those listed having been admitted for another reason

www.telegraph.co.uk

Yet I could ask why are the likes of the BBC/Sky taking figures as face value without digging deeper but what’s the point? This sells into the fear so the media need to ramp it up, in short it’s scraping barrel journalism and heads should roll (in media governments and elsewhere)

 

[nw1]

There are more factors in play than just age. An obese 49 year old is far more likely to come a cropper than a fit 51 year old.

This is a good point.

 

[Darandio]

When did that start? I don't think I had it back in the 1990s.

I'm not sure exactly but I don't think it's been that many years. My youngest has certainly had it at primary for a few years as we have to consent. Apparently secondary pupils are eligible as well but I don't recall either of ours having it.

 

[yorksrob]

Well ultimately I'd argue the opposite.

If anything we need to impose restrictions everywhere but in schools.

Ultimately the primary danger of schools having a major wave is that they will drive cases into the surrounding population, even if the cases wouldn't have occurred naturally. (A reservoir of infection can induce significant numbers of infections elsewhere in the population even if R in those populations is <1)

On the other hand we need people in schools to get it to remove schoolchildren as a reservoir of infection moving forward, given the total failure of the school vaccination programme.

So we need the school wave to burn as rapidly as possible but avoid as many overspill cases as possible.

Note that case rates in Adults are only really taking off in populations of about the age you'd expect the parents of schoolchildren to be.

There's no justification for restrictions everywhere else.

 

[adc82140]

I'm not sure exactly but I don't think it's been that many years. My youngest has certainly had it at primary for a few years as we have to consent. Apparently secondary pupils are eligible as well but I don't recall either of ours having it.

I believe it's primary aged children. My son has his after half term. They do it in the form of a nasal spray.

 

[island]

no one is asking questions as to why the NHS is claiming to be on its knees at this point.

1) the NHS isn't, various talk shops such as the "NHS Confederation" and the BMA are
2) the NHS suffers from stretch annually at this time of year owing to seasonal illnesses

 

[Yew]

Indeed, it’s not a coincidence that this peak is exactly when the human circulating beta coronaviruses usually peak..

 

[kez19]

1) the NHS isn't, various talk shops such as the "NHS Confederation" and the BMA are
2) the NHS suffers from stretch annually at this time of year owing to seasonal illnesses

Oh I agree on this, so maybe we should be asking us why the media are giving certain bodies airtime?

As for point 2 - I seen a “meme” or whatever it’s called circulating in terms of the NHS stretched yearly ie cuttings range from The Guardian, The I etc - this isn’t new either but the press/media seem to treat it as an annual event but with COVID it’s turned up a notch

 

[duncanp]

Oh I agree on this, so maybe we should be asking us why the media are giving certain bodies airtime?

As for point 2 - I seen a “meme” or whatever it’s called circulating in terms of the NHS stretched yearly ie cuttings range from The Guardian, The I etc - this isn’t new either but the press/media seem to treat it as an annual event but with COVID it’s turned up a notch

I put this in the support conversation thread, but it is worth repeating here.

It isn't the NHS which is under "unsustainable pressure", it is Sajid Javid, with politically motivated attacks on government policy from the British Doctors Union Medical Association.

 

[brad465]

This might change in the near future, but I notice that the opposition have been largely quiet this week about covid matters, even though they've been dominant in the news. None of Starmer's PMQ questions covered the topic, and I haven't seen them call for a Plan B implementation (at least not loudly). The Tories also have a small lead in opinion polls still, so my thinking is they believe the status quo has enough support right now to keep it in place. If their polling drops in the near future and no longer have the lead, with calls for plan B and/or other restrictions still being shouted loudly, that's when I think they'll concede to more measures.

In order to avoid that the booster programme needs to be ramped up significantly and this half term to help reduce infections in school ages, where infection rates are by far highest.

 

[MikeWM]

This might change in the near future, but I notice that the opposition have been largely quiet this week about covid matters, even though they've been dominant in the news. None of Starmer's PMQ questions covered the topic, and I haven't seen them call for a Plan B implementation (at least not loudly).

Sadly I think that may be a little optimistic - if you look at yesterday's Hansard, you can see in each of the 'urgent question', the business questions and the government statement, Labour MP after Labour MP calling for mandatory masks, and a good number of them calling for vaccine passports as well The shadow health secretary said 'Why not just make mask wearing—on public transport, for example—mandatory now? Yesterday, the Secretary of State talked about the importance of mask wearing. Why do we not just get on with it?' - so that is presumably still their official position.

The Tories also have a small lead in opinion polls still, so my thinking is they believe the status quo has enough support right now to keep it in place. If their polling drops in the near future and no longer have the lead, with calls for plan B and/or other restrictions still being shouted loudly, that's when I think they'll concede to more measures.

I think that argument is interesting. Note that 'vaccine passports' in England were (temporarily) dropped when the Tories suddenly had a big drop in the polls. That was probably more due to the tax rises than the pandemic response, but all these things put together do signal to Tory voters that this isn't a very conservative government.

 

[bramling]

but all these things put together do signal to Tory voters that this isn't a very conservative government.

This is a very relevant point I think.

Boris still seems to enjoy a poll lead. Goodness knows how as I'd rate this government as the most incompetent in my lifetime, but no doubt partly because the opposition is useless too.

But in the medium term I think there's a problem, as a lot of Conservative voters seem to be taking the view of "why on earth did I vote Conservative to get a government which doesn't really know what it is". Indeed some natural Conservative voters are very turned off by the arrogance of Johnson in particular.

It may well be the case that many of these voters are politically homeless, but if too many start to seriously decide to think about spoiling their papers or not voting, combined with floating voters being turned off, this will start to cause problems for Johnson. I predict MPs will start agitating again at some point.

 

[brad465]

This is a very relevant point I think.

Boris still seems to enjoy a poll lead. Goodness knows how as I'd rate this government as the most incompetent in my lifetime, but no doubt partly because the opposition is useless too.

But in the medium term I think there's a problem, as a lot of Conservative voters seem to be taking the view of "why on earth did I vote Conservative to get a government which doesn't really know what it is". Indeed some natural Conservative voters are very turned off by the arrogance of Johnson in particular.

It may well be the case that many of these voters are politically homeless, but if too many start to seriously decide to think about spoiling their papers or not voting, combined with floating voters being turned off, this will start to cause problems for Johnson. I predict MPs will start agitating again at some point.

A combination of gaslighting and cooking up crises to create a "rally round the leader effect" probably go some way to explaining how he still has a lead; it gets the Government publicity, and in this day and age it seems controlling the narrative is more important than the content of that narrative. While the opposition can do more, this control is not helping them.

Covid has certainly helped their polling because of all this, especially the initially successful vaccine rollout. Before the vaccine rollout and in the grips of the second wave Labour led a number of polls, albeit only marginally. A year on it'll be interesting to see if there's any change in attitude were restrictions to be reintroduced. Naturally any Tory voters despising restrictions would consider the Lib Dems or Reform UK, who each have at least some degree of opposition to restrictions, but not everyone will know they're the closest alternatives on this issue.

 

[Hawkwood Junc]

The media snowball effect has begun. The fuel crisis subsided, energy prices have dropped out of the news but Covid cases are on the rise so the natural answer is for more Covid panic to be induced. Exercising a bit of caution makes sense. Agitating and demanding fellow citizens are 'restricted' is not. It concerns me the ease at which some people are so happy to demand restrictions on the general population.

The current situation is well behind SAGE's best case predictions at this stage and has remained so since July. Infections are spreading primarily among school age kids and are spreading to parents. Not ideal but significantly better than before. Terms such as "wilfully negligent" from Chaand Nagpaul add nothing to the debate and just point to elements of the NHS wanting the tail to wag the dog rather than the other way round. The opposition have been worse than useless in applying any sense of critical thinking and can only parrot "more restrictions, earlier". The booster booking programme seems to be a bit of a shambles, particularly compared to the first and second dose programme. It's eminently fixable, panic need not ensue but some quarters seem intent on whipping it up. A very frustrating situation.

 

[quantinghome]

It isn't the NHS which is under "unsustainable pressure", it is Sajid Javid, with politically motivated attacks on government policy from the British Doctors Union Medical Association.

Yes, poor poor Sajid. How dare Doctors lecture him. How could they possibly know more about the health service than *checks notes* a former Vice-President of Chase Manhattan Bank and aide to Rudy Giuliani? Spending all their time playing golf and driving around in their fancy Jags. Booo Doctors. Booooo! Sajid Javid could run the NHS without any doctors he's so brilliant.

 

[seagull]

What a childish comment.

A shame after some very interesting and constructive posts.