Heading into autumn - what next?

[DelW]

According to BBC radio news bulletins this morning, various unions including the RMT are pressing for compulsory masks in shops and on trains (note for mod's, no link available since I can't see it reported on the BBC website).

As is almost everyone else, they're ignoring the fact that Wales has had that in force throughout and their figures are worse than in England .

 

[yorkie]

It is strange how certain elements of the left are signing up to authoritarianism. Why, I am not sure - it's not going to help them politically. Conservatives and Labour. The Brexit Party vs the Lockdown Party.

I think the main thing for them is being as different as possible to what the Conservatives are doing and this is great for attracting people who are either on the far left or whose main political views are 'oppose the Tories'; it is successful in attracting the most vocal of people as well as people who don't think for themselves and/or people who are easily scared / easily led and who want to believe the Tories are reckless.

But you are right it isn't going to be attractive to the middle of the road people who can think for themselves and realise the virus is endemic, that vaccines are effective, and that we need to get back to normal. But the middle of the road people who quietly get on with their lives are generally not particularly vocal.

The far left tend to congregate in echo chambers and reinforce each others extreme beliefs and they erroneously think they can be successful in attracting ordinary people to their extreme politics. They are so blinkered they cannot see the failings in their approach. Some of these people seem to spend almost all their time ranting about how bad the Tories are and how much they hate being on this island (they forget about Northern Ireland, of course) which they typically refer to as "Plague Island", hate our way of life, hate our freedoms etc.

There is no reasoning with these people. Unfortunately among their ranks are deluded academic type people who, despite being socially inept, are able to get their extreme views a mainstream audience through sympathetic media outlets such as the BBC and Grauniad.

Another risk is if they have a lockdown this year, it will normalise lockdowns for other non-Covid reasons. What if we have a bad flu season, like 1999? Will they call for lockdowns to 'relieve pressure' in those instances?

But I do think lockdown is unlikely; as I said before the main reason is that another lockdown will finish off 'Boris' politically.

They have mostly given up demanding lockdowns and instead focus on things like compulsory mask wearing and compulsory working from home.

Scotland and Wales have introduced their own 'plan B' some months ago. Yet there is no evidence to suggest they have fared any better than England. This is a very significant point, which is conveniently ignored by the vocal minority pushing for the reintroduction of restrictions.

They really don't like it if you mention Wales high case rates. They also don't like talking about Denmark, Norway, Sweden etc.

But there is no reasoning with these people; they are obsessed and irrational and no amount of evidence can make them change their minds. They are so deluded they think that demanding more restrictions will get the public on their side.

According to BBC radio news bulletins this morning, various unions including the RMT are pressing for compulsory masks in shops and on trains (note for mod's, no link available since I can't see it reported on the BBC website).

If you can edit your post to include a link/quote when one becomes available that would be great, thanks.

I really would ignore the unions though; the fact even the BBC (who are sympathetic towards far left authoritarianism) don't feel it is important enough to publish it on their website speaks volumes. Of course the Grauniad and other extremist far left publications will be all over it.

I left my union over their attitude toward the pandemic. I gave them feedback and they did NOT want to hear it. I am really glad I left. Looking back I wish I'd never joined and I should have quit them long ago. I would encourage any other union members to quit their union if their union is calling for authoritarian measures.

 

[nw1]

I really would ignore the unions though; the fact even the BBC (who are sympathetic towards far left authoritarianism) don't feel it is important enough to publish it on their website speaks volumes. Of course the Grauniad and other extremist far left publications will be all over it.

I left my union over their attitude toward the pandemic. I gave them feedback and they did NOT want to hear it. I am really glad I left. Looking back I wish I'd never joined and I should have quit them long ago. I would encourage any other union members to quit their union if their union is calling for authoritarian measures.

I realise this is getting away from Covid and on to other issues, but I will admit to being sympathetic to outlets like the Guardian - before Covid came along.

I was, and remain an ardent anti-Brexiter for example*, and oppose the austerity implemented by Cameron and Osborne. At the time such media outlets stood against what the Tories were doing.

However I have become increasingly cynical of Labour, and the left in general. Labour did nothing to prevent Brexit, because they wanted the votes of socially conservative seats too much (and then there was the supposed deity Corbyn who wanted it all along). Some unions seem to spend too much time sabre-rattling and not enough on protecting their members. And too many on the left (such as the government of Victoria) have been promoting overly-long and overly austere lockdowns.

Time to scrap the existing parties in the UK. We could have instead

- the Liberty Party (internationalist, anti-Brexit, pro-employee-rights, anti-austerity, anti-bureaucracy)
- the Business Party (internationalist, anti-Brexit, anti-bureaucracy, but in comparison to the Liberty Party, more pro business and the economy, in preference to employee rights - though still more reasonable than Cameron/Osborne, thinking of a Continental-style centre-right party)
- the Patriot Party (authoritarian, flag waving, belief that the UK can do no wrong, anti-immigration)
- the Statist Left (authoritarian, far-left, strong state control)

I suspect the first two of these would always come out top in any election.

*partly for freedom reasons (I passionately believe in freedom of movement - both ways - and believe 'strong borders' are an outdated concept belonging to a bygone age - even when in the EU I always found the UK's borders a national embarrassment when compared with Schengen), partly economic, and partly because it increases bureaucracy when dealing with our closest neighbours. I am also not a fan of vacuous flag-waving and patriotism.

 

[yorksrob]

I realise this is getting away from Covid and on to other issues, but I will admit to being sympathetic to outlets like the Guardian - before Covid came along.

I was, and remain an ardent anti-Brexiter for example*, and oppose the austerity implemented by Cameron and Osborne. At the time such media outlets stood against what the Tories were doing.

However I have become increasingly cynical of Labour, and the left in general. Labour did nothing to prevent Brexit, because they wanted the votes of socially conservative seats too much (and then there was the supposed deity Corbyn who wanted it all along). Some unions seem to spend too much time sabre-rattling and not enough on protecting their members. And too many on the left (such as the government of Victoria) have been promoting overly-long and overly austere lockdowns.

Time to scrap the existing parties in the UK. We could have instead

- the Liberty Party (internationalist, anti-Brexit, pro-employee-rights, anti-austerity, anti-bureaucracy)
- the Business Party (internationalist, anti-Brexit, anti-bureaucracy, but in comparison to the Liberty Party, more pro business and the economy, in preference to employee rights - though still more reasonable than Cameron/Osborne, thinking of a Continental-style centre-right party)
- the Patriot Party (authoritarian, flag waving, belief that the UK can do no wrong, anti-immigration)
- the Statist Left (authoritarian, far-left, strong state control)

I suspect the first two of these would always come out top in any election.

*(partly for freedom reasons (I passionately believe in freedom of movement), partly economic, and partly because it reduces bureaucracy when dealing with our closest neighbours. I am also not a fan of vacuous flag-waving and patriotism)

I have views that would align with all of those parties in some respects.

I've often thought that a sort of British "Gaullist" party would be something I'd vote for. Patriotic but for the British way of life, rather than just flag waving. Not beholden to free market dogma.

 

[nw1]

I have views that would align with all of those parties in some respects.

I've often thought that a sort of British "Gaullist" party would be something I'd vote for. Patriotic but for the British way of life, rather than just flag waving. Not beholden to free market dogma.

Ironically I think it's the free market which has done more to destroy the 'British way of life' than supposed interference from the EU.

For me, the joys of Britain mostly disappeared after 2010. That's when we've had the most country pub closures, for example. Under the watch of the Tories.

 

[duncanp]

The Telegraph is reporting that cases are "surging" in Germany, where they have increased by 70% in one week.

So those strict rules about medical masks, plus vaccine passports, are not excatly helping to stem the rise in cases, are they?

Funnily enough, this story is not on Sky News, the BBC and The Guardian, and Professor Linda Bauld was strangely silent about it on Sky news earlier today.

Perhaps Sky News are short staffed and I am sure the story will appear there soon. Surely they can't be embarrassed about the fact that cases are surging in a country which has restrictions at least equivalent to the UK government's "Plan B".

Germany's Covid cases surge 70pc as parts of Europe track UK into winter crisis

Cases and deaths are on the rise in countries from Ukraine to Latvia, which went back into lockdown this week

www.telegraph.co.uk

Germany's Covid cases surge 70pc as parts of Europe track UK into winter crisis​

Cases and deaths are on the rise in countries from Ukraine to Latvia, which went back into lockdown this week

Coronavirus cases in Germany have risen by 70 per cent in a week amid signs it is following the UK into a winter Covid crisis.

The Robert Koch Institute, Germany’s public health body, reported 19,752 new infections on Friday, the highest figure since May, as scientists warned that the country was heading for a “difficult” autumn wave.

The situation is critical in a number of central and eastern European countries too, with Latvia heading back into lockdown and a surge in cases in Romania, Bulgaria, Poland and Ukraine.

Germany’s case numbers still lag the UK, which saw 51,484 cases reported on Thursday. There were 157 cases per million in Germany in the latest data, compared to 681 per million in the UK, according to Our World in Data.

However, it has seen a similar number of deaths in recent days: 115 people died in the UK and 116 in Germany in the most recent reports

Comprehensive vaccination campaigns in both countries are ensuring that hospitalisations and deaths are not spiking in the same way as in previous waves, although German doctors warned on Friday that there was still a “close correlation” between cases and intensive care admissions in the country.

There are 1,540 Covid patients in intensive care in Germany, up from 1,300 at the beginning of the month. Of these, 850 are on ventilators; a similar number to the UK, where 872 patients are in ventilator beds.

“The actual 4th wave has now started and is still picking up speed,” Professor Christian Karagiannidis, president of the German Society of Medical Intensive Care and Emergency Medicine, said.

Germany has fully vaccinated 69 per cent of its population, behind the UK, which has reached 79 per cent.

Despite the surge, there is an ongoing debate in the country about whether it is time to lift the remaining coronavirus restrictions - face masks remain mandatory in many settings and vaccine passports are widely required. Health Minister Jens Spahn said earlier this week that the state of emergency, in place since March last year, could end in November, but regional leaders have urged caution in the face of rising cases.

Bavarian premier Markus Soeder said on Thursday that lifting restrictions would leave the country “defenceless”.

Doctors also said that the rising case numbers could test the country’s health service in the months ahead.

Stefan Kluge, director of the clinic for intensive care at the University Hospital Hamburg-Eppendorf, told the German news channel Taggeschau that the “foreseeable difficult autumn and winter wave” of Covid, alongside a rise in other infections such as influenza, could push intensive care “once again to and beyond its limits”.

Similar fears in Latvia pushed the government into declaring a lockdown on Wednesday this week, the first country in Europe to reintroduce the measure in the face of the gathering winter Covid storm.

Countries across central and eastern Europe - many of which have significantly lower vaccination rates than the UK and Germany and where hesitancy is widespread - are facing rising cases and deaths.

Ukraine reported record infections and deaths on Friday for the second day in a row, with 23,785 new cases and 612 deaths.

Poland, Slovakia, Romania and Bulgaria are also reporting rising cases and deaths, with hospitals coming under intense pressure, and Russia signalled earlier this week that a new full lockdown could be introduced in Moscow if the situation does not improve.

According to the World Health Organization, Europe saw a 7 per cent rise in cases in the last week - the only region in the world where infections are currently on the rise.

 

[philosopher]

What has surprised me over the past week is the complete lack of pushback from those who would be adversely impacted by Plan B, particularly businesses. Vaccine passports would be a big pain for nightclubs, concert venues, etc to enforce and would very likely lead to lower attendance as obviously the unvaccinated could not attend. Restoring the WFH advice would be very damaging to any business that relies on office workers for some of their business. Yet I not heard any business or business group speak out against implementing Plan B. Nor have I heard anyone saying how reintroducing restrictions risks it becoming an annual event.

Thus it has been an incredibly one sided debate. It seems like opposition to Plan B has been limited to a few people on Twitter and some government ministers, while those advocating Plan B get massive airtime in the media.

 

[The Ham]

They really don't like it if you mention Wales high case rates. They also don't like talking about Denmark, Norway, Sweden etc

I suspect that they also don't like the fact that hospitalisations and deaths have stayed fairly level for the last few weeks and aren't following the growth seen in them this time last year.

 

[yorksrob]

Ironically I think it's the free market which has done more to destroy the 'British way of life' than supposed interference from the EU.

For me, the joys of Britain mostly disappeared after 2010. That's when we've had the most country pub closures, for example. Under the watch of the Tories.

Yes, pubs in general are part of the warp and weft of British life and would gain particular protection from speculators wanting to turn them into flats etc.

The flogging off of all of our companies to every Tom, Dick and Harry is also something my "British Gaullists" would crack down hard on.

 

[35B]

I am sure there are many people who have had enough and have stopped wearing face coverings and will never wear them again.

There is no way anyone can be forced to wear one; anyone can self-declare an exemption and most people are by now well aware that anyone who needs to be vaccinated has had the option to be vaccinated for some time and anyone who needs additional protection can obtain highly effective FFP3 masks and we now know that flimsy, loose fitting masks are not designed to filter aerosols, and therefore do not protect anyone (the wearer or others) from virus transmission.

The argument that "vulnerable people, who are not quite as well protected by vaccines as others, need healthy people to wear flimsy loose fitting masks because they are unable to wear effective FFP3 asks" holds no water whatsoever.

We can also see that Wales still has compulsory masks, and other authoritarian measures imposed by tinpot dictator Drakeford, yet they have some of the highest case rates in the world.

It's game over for mandatory masks; mass mask wearing requires the majority to wear them and that is never going to happen in England again as the cat is out of the bag now.

Pure anecdata, but I observed a material change in mask prevalence over the last 24 hours.

The event I attended and helped at yesterday strongly promoted mask wearing*, and a majority of those I saw wore masks. Shopping in town today, masks were much more evident than a week ago.

* - for those interested, by offering masks to all on arrival, and by requesting that attendees wore them. It was done respectfully, and with no particular pressure.

 

[yorksrob]

The Telegraph is reporting that cases are "surging" in Germany, where they have increased by 70% in one week.

So those strict rules about medical masks, plus vaccine passports, are not excatly helping to stem the rise in cases, are they?

Funnily enough, this story is not on Sky News, the BBC and The Guardian, and Professor Linda Bauld was strangely silent about it on Sky news earlier today.

Perhaps Sky News are short staffed and I am sure the story will appear there soon. Surely they can't be embarrassed about the fact that cases are surging in a country which has restrictions at least equivalent to the UK government's "Plan B".

Germany's Covid cases surge 70pc as parts of Europe track UK into winter crisis

Cases and deaths are on the rise in countries from Ukraine to Latvia, which went back into lockdown this week

www.telegraph.co.uk

It seems that the winter surge is not a peculiarly British phenomenon afterall, and we are just seeing the pressures that Northern vaccinated countries will see going forward.

The NHS needs to be redesigned to deal with this level of pressure going forward.

 

[philosopher]

Pure anecdata, but I observed a material change in mask prevalence over the last 24 hours.

The event I attended and helped at yesterday strongly promoted mask wearing*, and a majority of those I saw wore masks. Shopping in town today, masks were much more evident than a week ago.

* - for those interested, by offering masks to all on arrival, and by requesting that attendees wore them. It was done respectfully, and with no particular pressure.

Mask wearing does seem more prevalent in London too over the past few days, however London seems no less busy than it was a couple of weeks ago.

 

[brad465]

The Telegraph is reporting that cases are "surging" in Germany, where they have increased by 70% in one week.

So those strict rules about medical masks, plus vaccine passports, are not excatly helping to stem the rise in cases, are they?

Funnily enough, this story is not on Sky News, the BBC and The Guardian, and Professor Linda Bauld was strangely silent about it on Sky news earlier today.

Perhaps Sky News are short staffed and I am sure the story will appear there soon. Surely they can't be embarrassed about the fact that cases are surging in a country which has restrictions at least equivalent to the UK government's "Plan B".

Germany's Covid cases surge 70pc as parts of Europe track UK into winter crisis

Cases and deaths are on the rise in countries from Ukraine to Latvia, which went back into lockdown this week

www.telegraph.co.uk

Germany is recording some anomalous days with much higher numbers than surrounding days, where while the trend is upwards for them, it's not quite up 70% now. However there are also surges in Belgium, Poland and the Netherlands taking off, so may well be much higher themselves in a week's time.

 

[adc82140]

The scientists are lashing out right now, because most people, including the government, have stopped paying them any attention. They can't see beyond heir own little worlds. They are like a bunch of 3 year olds in labcoats.

 

[duncanp]

Germany is recording some anomalous days with much higher numbers than surrounding days, where while the trend is upwards for them, it's not quite up 70% now. However there are also surges in Belgium, Poland and the Netherlands taking off, so may well be much higher themselves in a week's time.

I take your point.

But my point is that there are increases in cases (however large) in several EU countries that have restrictions equivalent to the UK government's Plan B.

It rather destroys the theory that adopting Plan B would prevent, or even slow, an increase in cases.

 

[takno]

I take your point.

But my point is that there are increases in cases (however large) in several EU countries that have restrictions equivalent to the UK government's Plan B.

It rather destroys the theory that adopting Plan B would prevent, or even slow, an increase in cases.

Given that Germany's mask mandates largely require high-quality masks rather than the lightweight apologies for masks we mandate over here, their current restrictions go quite a lot beyond plan b, to absolutely no apparent effect.

 

[brad465]

I take your point.

But my point is that there are increases in cases (however large) in several EU countries that have restrictions equivalent to the UK government's Plan B.

It rather destroys the theory that adopting Plan B would prevent, or even slow, an increase in cases.

I agree that Plan B will have little or no effect, I was just pointing out the trend in Germany's cases at the moment isn't as stark as 70% (for now).

 

[Mag_seven]

It rather destroys the theory that adopting Plan B would prevent, or even slow, an increase in cases.

I agree that Plan B will have little or no effect

There is no doubt that plan B would make no difference but the BBC / SKY etc just keep giving seemingly constant airtime to those who argue that it does. You would almost think that the media want Plan B to be implemented.

 

[takno]

There is no doubt that plan B would make no difference but the BBC / SKY etc just keep giving seemingly constant airtime to those who argue that it does. You would almost think that the media want Plan B to be implemented.

People who are out and about, enjoying events and each others' company, are pretty much inevitably consuming less media. They may even require that the media they do consume is actually entertaining, rather than being doom-laden "journalism". More on this breaking story at 6, 8, 9, 10 and 11.

 

[Ediswan]

Given that Germany's mask mandates largely require high-quality masks rather than the lightweight apologies for masks we mandate over here, their current restrictions go quite a lot beyond plan b, to absolutely no apparent effect.

You have to be careful with Germany. It is sixteen federated states, each with their own rules. The only states I can find that have mandated FFP2 masks are Bavaria and Berlin. (More than happy to be corrected about the detail if somebody has a list of the rules for each state.)

 

[zero]

Mask wearing does seem more prevalent in London too over the past few days, however London seems no less busy than it was a couple of weeks ago.

I was in central London yesterday. There was a stark increase in masked people including (especially) outdoors compared to the last time I went to central London in mid-September. It was also a lot colder, so maybe some people's attitudes have changed.

 

[Reliablebeam]

The scientists are lashing out right now, because most people, including the government, have stopped paying them any attention. They can't see beyond heir own little worlds. They are like a bunch of 3 year olds in labcoats.

I agree with this sentiment, as a professional scientist myself. Some of these epidemiology types have got very used to being given god like status in the media, compounded by our government painting itself into a corner with following the science messaging. Now the toys are coming out of the pram like that wet blanket Openshaw this morning- I'm assuming he doesn't have much faith in his Sage colleagues modelling for this winter then! You can see from Scientist twitter that these types have been getting annoyed at their lack of media attention for a while. Interestingly even the Champaign socialist brigade at my employer have conceded that another lockdown is unlikey to be followed. Based on what I l've seen on GWR, SWT and TfL today good luck getting those masks back.

I have a suspicion about why the media is pushing plan b all of a sudden - it contains stuff that appeals to a certain kind of London centric upper middle class demographic that a lot of senior journalists are part of....

 

[takno]

I was in central London yesterday. There was a stark increase in masked people including (especially) outdoors compared to the last time I went to central London in mid-September. It was also a lot colder, so maybe some people's attitudes have changed.

Interesting. Outdoor mask-wearing in Edinburgh is dropping off if anything, and appears to be almost entirely composed of people who've just come out of shops or buses. I guess in London though that people may have just become more sensitive to the pollution.

 

[Bikeman78]

I think a fourth lockdown is very unlikely.

However a mask mandate and work from home instruction will screw the railways again. I saw someone from the NHS on the news this morning banging on about avoiding public transport if at all possible. Will they never give up? I've had my vaccines so why should I avoid public transport?

 

[Mag_seven]

I've had my vaccines so why should I avoid public transport?

Exactly - remember when "vaccines were the way out of this"?

 

[Darandio]

Exactly - remember when "vaccines were the way out of this"?

Indeed, it's the only reason I bothered. For the people who haven't had one yet out of choice, god knows what they are thinking right now. All the messaging going around will clearly discourage them further because even if they have it there is still the spectre of restrictions looming over them. What's the point?

 

[bramling]

Indeed, it's the only reason I bothered. For the people who haven't had one yet out of choice, god knows what they are thinking right now. All the messaging going around will clearly discourage them further because even if they have it there is still the spectre of restrictions looming over them. What's the point?

I'm sick of this constant threat being hung over us, utterly sick of it. It really is like an abusive relationship - every time we think we're there, the goalposts get moved to the right *again*. Next thing is going to be threats of dire consequences as a result of Christmas.

I just know Boris is going to cave in at some point.

To be honest, I'm rapidly starting to believe that abolishing the NHS might actually be a viable solution to this.

 

[NorthOxonian]

To be honest, I'm rapidly starting to believe that abolishing the NHS might actually be a viable solution to this.

At the risk of sounding a bit tinfoil hat, maybe that's the idea.

The NHS is absolutely untouchable in normal circumstances, so if you wanted to change the healthcare system (as many on the right do), you'd have to make people resent it. Telling people that that we need damaging restrictions to "protect the NHS" is certainly one way of doing that.

 

[Darandio]

I'm sick of this constant threat being hung over us, utterly sick of it. It really is like an abusive relationship - every time we think we're there, the goalposts get moved to the right *again*. Next thing is going to be threats of dire consequences as a result of Christmas.

I just know Boris is going to cave in at some point.

I'm normally quite resilient but these last few days of messaging are even starting to get me down, it's like a permanent dark cloud. Thoroughly depressing.

On a semi related note of resilience here is an example of how restrictions have affected people, particularly students. I spoke on here earlier this year about my daughter who was moving into her final year at secondary school. The school had recognised that the mental health of many students had been seriously affected and brought in an external organisation to provide support, the issue was the waiting list was extremely long and most students weren't assisted before the summer break.

Roll on to the latest term and the school have migrated to another academy trust and subsequently cancelled the arrangement with this organisation. One of the newly installed heads of year explained this decision in an assembly and stated that no more help would be arranged by the school because 'students need to learn to be more resilient'.

 

[duncanp]

I'm sick of this constant threat being hung over us, utterly sick of it. It really is like an abusive relationship - every time we think we're there, the goalposts get moved to the right *again*. Next thing is going to be threats of dire consequences as a result of Christmas.

I just know Boris is going to cave in at some point.

To be honest, I'm rapidly starting to believe that abolishing the NHS might actually be a viable solution to this.

I am not so sure that Boris Johnson will cave in, now that Sajid Javid is the Health Secretary. (rather than the useless Matt Hancock)

Mr Javid is also quite close to Rishi Sunak, and I wouldn't be in the least surprised if they are coordinating their efforts behind the scenes to:-

1. Persuade Boris that the NHS will not be overwhelmed (with COVID patients at least) this winter
2. Frighten Boris with dire predictions of the economic consequences of another lockdown.

Boris Johnson can be manipulated easily (he has said that he "doesn't do detail") and the same can also be said for Matt Hancock.

Now that Michael Gove (another locktivist) has been moved to Housing, Communities & Local Government, the balance of power in the cabinet sub committee that deals with COVID-19 policy decisions has shifted much more towards being in favour of lifting restrictions, and also against reimposing them.

I agree that abolishing the NHS, or at least radical reform of it, ought to be considered.

The UK healthcare system should be modelled on those of countries like France & Germany, with an insurance based system where money follows the patient.

But it is heresy to say that, given that worship of the NHS is the new national religion.