Heading into autumn - what next?

[35B]

I'm normally quite resilient but these last few days of messaging are even starting to get me down, it's like a permanent dark cloud. Thoroughly depressing.

On a semi related note of resilience here is an example of how restrictions have affected people, particularly students. I spoke on here earlier this year about my daughter who was moving into her final year at secondary school. The school had recognised that the mental health of many students had been seriously affected and brought in an external organisation to provide support, the issue was the waiting list was extremely long and most students weren't assisted before the summer break.

Roll on to the latest term and the school have migrated to another academy trust and subsequently cancelled the arrangement with this organisation. One of the newly installed heads of year explained this decision in an assembly and stated that no more help would be arranged by the school because 'students need to learn to be more resilient'.

Let’s just say that as a parent or as a governor, I would be extremely unhappy with any teacher saying that.

 

[Darandio]

Let’s just say that as a parent or as a governor, I would be extremely unhappy with any teacher saying that.

I'd hope any parent would!

 

[greyman42]

However a mask mandate and work from home instruction will screw the railways again. I saw someone from the NHS on the news this morning banging on about avoiding public transport it at all possible. Will they never give up? I've had my vaccines so why should I avoid public transport?

I will not be wearing a mask again on the train or in shops. I will simply claim an exemption.

However a mask mandate and work from home instruction will screw the railways again. I saw someone from the NHS on the news this morning banging on about avoiding public transport it at all possible. Will they never give up? I've had my vaccines so why should I avoid public transport?

I agree but you would not think anyone would be daft enough to take any notice of these idiots.

I'm sick of this constant threat being hung over us, utterly sick of it. It really is like an abusive relationship - every time we think we're there, the goalposts get moved to the right *again*. Next thing is going to be threats of dire consequences as a result of Christmas.

I just know Boris is going to cave in at some point.

To be fair it is the media doing this and the government have made no mention of another lockdown.

 

[Lampshade]

At the risk of sounding a bit tinfoil hat, maybe that's the idea.

The NHS is absolutely untouchable in normal circumstances, so if you wanted to change the healthcare system (as many on the right do), you'd have to make people resent it. Telling people that that we need damaging restrictions to "protect the NHS" is certainly one way of doing that.

I was saying exactly this before even the first lockdown, “ability of the NHS to cope” seemed like such an absurd metric to be using.

 

[WestRiding]

I will not be wearing a mask again on the train or in shops. I will simply claim an exemption.


I agree but you would not think anyone would be daft enough to take any notice of these idiots.


To be fair it is the media doing this and the government have made no mention of another lockdown.

Yep, just browsing the online papers and we're getting bombarded by masks coming back and lockdown.

Britain's Covid growth SLOWS: Daily infections up 3.6% on last week

Department of Health bosses posted 44,985 new coronavirus infections, up 3.6 per cent on last week's 43,423. The increase comes after seven days of infections spiking by at least 10 per cent.

www.dailymail.co.uk

 

[duncanp]

Yep, just browsing the online papers and we're getting bombarded by masks coming back and lockdown.

Britain's Covid growth SLOWS: Daily infections up 3.6% on last week

Department of Health bosses posted 44,985 new coronavirus infections, up 3.6 per cent on last week's 43,423. The increase comes after seven days of infections spiking by at least 10 per cent.

www.dailymail.co.uk

I was about to post a link to that Daily Mail article, so thanks for saving me the trouble.

I think it is worth emphasising the most important section of the article

But SAGE scientists insisted it was 'highly unlikely' that the NHS would be overwhelmed by the virus this winter even without restrictions.

Modelling by the group for England predicted that the combination of vaccine-acquired immunity and natural protection would be enough to keep hospital rates below levels seen during the second wave.

The fact that it is SAGE scientists who are saying this is crucial, as it gives the government some justification for resisting calls for more restrictions from "NHS Leaders" and other locktivists who have ulterior motives for wanting restrictions in place.

Providing this trend continues, I think we can avoid the imposition of "Plan B" for the immediate future, but no doubt the locktivists try their scare stories again later in the winter (ie. "...household mixing at Christmas & New Year will be a "superspreader" event, as will people getting sloshed over the festive season and forgetting their masks and social distancing")

 

[kez19]

I was about to post a link to that Daily Mail article, so thanks for saving me the trouble.

I think it is worth emphasising the most important section of the article



The fact that it is SAGE scientists who are saying this is crucial, as it gives the government some justification for resisting calls for more restrictions from "NHS Leaders" and other locktivists who have ulterior motives for wanting restrictions in place.

Providing this trend continues, I think we can avoid the imposition of "Plan B" for the immediate future, but no doubt the locktivists try their scare stories again later in the winter (ie. "...household mixing at Christmas & New Year will be a "superspreader" event, as will people getting sloshed over the festive season and forgetting their masks and social distancing")

Yet isn’t it strange half of this SAGE lot go to media to cause a panic, yet the other half seem to think not to worry?

I think those in SAGE have no clue but happy to seed in uncertainty onto the public thanks to the media and again why are the likes of Sky/BBC taking the bait and not questioning properly?

I fail to understand that in a Sky News article doom and gloom yet go to this and it’s the opposite (per se)

 

[nw1]

An odd thing today, not sure if it's related.

Myself and a friend attempted to get into a pub in the New Forest in Hampshire. There was a notice outside the door saying 'Open to booked visitors and hotel residents only' or something to that effect.

Is this a result of the media scare this week I wonder? Apparently the same pub had no such restriction last week. It was also extremely quiet inside, and had a garden (also inaccessible to turn-up visitors), so the chances of spreading Covid would really be very, very small.

This reminds me of the situation in July 2020. We went elsewhere.

 

[adc82140]

An odd thing today, not sure if it's related.

Myself and a friend attempted to get into a pub in the New Forest in Hampshire. There was a notice outside the door saying 'Open to booked visitors and hotel residents only' or something to that effect.

Is this a result of the media scare this week I wonder? Apparently the same pub had no such restriction last week. It was also extremely quiet inside, and had a garden (also inaccessible to turn-up visitors), so the chances of spreading Covid would really be very, very small.

This reminds me of the situation in July 2020. We went elsewhere.

That's fairly local to me. Nothing to do with Covid, everything to do with half term and managing staffing.

 

[yorksrob]

I'm sick of this constant threat being hung over us, utterly sick of it. It really is like an abusive relationship - every time we think we're there, the goalposts get moved to the right *again*. Next thing is going to be threats of dire consequences as a result of Christmas.

I just know Boris is going to cave in at some point.

To be honest, I'm rapidly starting to believe that abolishing the NHS might actually be a viable solution to this.

There is a lot to be said for a continental style compulsory insurance based system.

 

[bramling]

There is a lot to be said for a continental style compulsory insurance based system.

A lot of people here already pay for private medical insurance. As ever others choose to spend their disposable income on other things instead.

I do take the point made elsewhere here that denigrating the NHS could perhaps be used as ammunition for getting rid of it. This government does certainly have form for using Covid as a lever for implementing other things. We shouldn’t regard the NHS as sacrosanct though, as some people seem to do. If NHS is the best way of delivering health care, that position should be open to scrutiny.

 

[yorksrob]

A lot of people here already pay for private medical insurance. As ever others choose to spend their disposable income on other things instead.

Whilst in paying for healthcare through general taxation I will be spending my disposable income on other things.

If a compulsory insurance system were to come in, I would expect a substantial drop in taxation otherwise.

 

[takno]

Whilst in paying for healthcare through general taxation I will be spending my disposable income on other things.

If a compulsory insurance system were to come in, I would expect a substantial drop in taxation otherwise.

I suspect the fall would be pretty small. Governments still need to pick up the healthcare costs for the poor and public health costs. We also spend a scandalously small amount of our national income on healthcare already. If a continental-style system drove continental-style levels of spending , which is probably what we need so that we can have continental-style lack of patients on trolleys, then the government's baseload spend might well be quite similar, but with you paying some insurance on top.

I'm relatively open to continental healthcare, because I think most people do want to spend what it costs to have a real health service, but wé seem perennially attached to electing governments who won't spend that on our behalf. It seems a shame though, when the NHS as a system has generally provided better care per pound spent than most other systems.

I'm thoroughly fed up with the NHS being simultaneously worshipped and blamed by the government, and I think it's very much a cynical ploy to get rid of it. If we can't get rid of this government though, then losing the NHS might be the least worst option.

 

[yorksrob]

I suspect the fall would be pretty small. Governments still need to pick up the healthcare costs for the poor and public health costs. We also spend a scandalously small amount of our national income on healthcare already. If a continental-style system drove continental-style levels of spending , which is probably what we need so that we can have continental-style lack of patients on trolleys, then the government's baseload spend might well be quite similar, but with you paying some insurance on top.

I'm relatively open to continental healthcare, because I think most people do want to spend what it costs to have a real health service, but wé seem perennially attached to electing governments who won't spend that on our behalf. It seems a shame though, when the NHS as a system has generally provided better care per pound spent than most other systems.

I'm thoroughly fed up with the NHS being simultaneously worshipped and blamed by the government, and I think it's very much a cynical ploy to get rid of it. If we can't get rid of this government though, then losing the NHS might be the least worst option.

Good point. I'm happy for the tax fall to be less, as long as it's properly accounted for.

Universal healthcare is the key thing that needs to be maintained.

 

[WestRiding]

I would happily go for an insurance based system. So long as I didn't have to pay NI and Tax towards the existing NHS set up.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

Those who chose not to get vaccinated are going to have to build up immunity through natural infection and some of them are going to get very ill; they've made their choice and there is nothing that can really be done about that. Elderly people can and do die of respiratory viruses against which they already have some immunity, and the numbers this year are not actually worse than a bad 'flu year, and will reduce in time as our immunity increases.

Thats there choice but when they are a large chunk of hospital admissions which is the key measure they are going to use to decide whether to impose some restrictions or not its blatantly unfair on the majority of us who are vaccinated and want to get on with our lives. So should they decide to impose more restrictions (i still feel it low to medium risk currently) they should impose restrictions on those who are unvaccinated first.

 

[yorkie]

Thats there choice but when they are a large chunk of hospital admissions which is the key measure they are going to use to decide whether to impose some restrictions or not its blatantly unfair on the majority of us who are vaccinated and want to get on with our lives. So should they decide to impose more restrictions (i still feel it low to medium risk currently) they should impose restrictions on those who are unvaccinated first.

In theory it may sound good, but I don't see how you could actually do that in practice; creating a two tier society could cause so many problems and is likely to cause many other problems while being unlikely to have any material difference to case rates anyway. Any such suggestions would be best posted in a new thread in its own right and would be highly controversial.

 

[adc82140]

I suspect the fall would be pretty small. Governments still need to pick up the healthcare costs for the poor and public health costs. We also spend a scandalously small amount of our national income on healthcare already. If a continental-style system drove continental-style levels of spending , which is probably what we need so that we can have continental-style lack of patients on trolleys, then the government's baseload spend might well be quite similar, but with you paying some insurance on top.

I'm relatively open to continental healthcare, because I think most people do want to spend what it costs to have a real health service, but wé seem perennially attached to electing governments who won't spend that on our behalf. It seems a shame though, when the NHS as a system has generally provided better care per pound spent than most other systems.

I'm thoroughly fed up with the NHS being simultaneously worshipped and blamed by the government, and I think it's very much a cynical ploy to get rid of it. If we can't get rid of this government though, then losing the NHS might be the least worst option.

Speaking from the inside, the NHS needs a fundamental rebuild from the bottom up, with the obscene wastage and inefficiencies got rid of, and proper integration in to the care system. The NHS doesn't need more money, it needs to better account for the money it's already given.

 

[takno]

Speaking from the inside, the NHS needs a fundamental rebuild from the bottom up, with the obscene wastage and inefficiencies got rid of, and proper integration in to the care system. The NHS doesn't need more money, it needs to better account for the money it's already given.

Speaking as somebody who's seen the inside of a few large organizations in both the private and public sectors, it's very very easy to identify large amounts of wastage in all of them. Once you get down to the details though, the apparent wastage is often either important (like large stocks of underused PPE just sitting around waiting for a pandemic), less wasteful than the alternative (like a lot of middle management who are there to identify and enforce efficiency savings), driven by pointless external regulation (like a lot of the tinpot infection control clipboard operators), or just impossible to avoid in an organisation of any significant size.

The health outcomes we get for the small and decreasing amount we spend in the UK are pretty excellent, and there's a huge potential for reorganisation to actually reduce efficiency.

 

[Andyh82]

What has surprised me over the past week is the complete lack of pushback from those who would be adversely impacted by Plan B, particularly businesses. Vaccine passports would be a big pain for nightclubs, concert venues, etc to enforce and would very likely lead to lower attendance as obviously the unvaccinated could not attend. Restoring the WFH advice would be very damaging to any business that relies on office workers for some of their business. Yet I not heard any business or business group speak out against implementing Plan B. Nor have I heard anyone saying how reintroducing restrictions risks it becoming an annual event.

Thus it has been an incredibly one sided debate. It seems like opposition to Plan B has been limited to a few people on Twitter and some government ministers, while those advocating Plan B get massive airtime in the media.

If the rest of the pandemic is anything to go by, these stories will only reach the media once Plan B is introduced. They will be the main headline the day after, guaranteed.

It was the same back in June
“It’s too early to open back up, freedom day must be delayed says scientists”
Next day
“Freedom day being pushed back will be the death knell for business, says hospitality industry leaders”

 

[yorkie]

Cases are likely to plateau within the next few days and then gradually start to fall soon after.

Four days ago I made a prediction to some forum members this would happen within 8 days; we still have 4 more days to and it will take another couple of days to see if my prediction is true. If I am wrong, it may take a few more days but I don't think I will be too far out.

Those calling for more restrictions are a combination of people who genuinely think cases will continue rising to the 100k mark (Ferguson believers) but also deviously clever people who actually do realise this fact and therefore want measures to be introduced just before cases stop rising, so that the measures can be credited with having the effect. The latter group are becoming increasingly worried because they desperately want to get the measures put in place now so they can wrongly take the credit and they know that any delay could destroy their argument.

It is very important that we continue to push back against the authoritarians. The Government must hold firm. Once cases start to reduce, the authoritarians will be much less vocal and the pressure will be reduced.

I see anyone who calls for so-called "plan B" measures to be an enemy of society and not someone I want to have any association with.

 

[bramling]

Cases are likely to plateau within the next few days and then gradually start to fall soon after.

Four days ago I made a prediction to some forum members this would happen within 8 days; we still have 4 more days to and it will take another couple of days to see if my prediction is true. If I am wrong, it may take a few more days but I don't think I will be too far out.

Those calling for more restrictions are a combination of people who genuinely think cases will continue rising to the 100k mark (Ferguson believers) but also deviously clever people who actually do realise this fact and therefore want measures to be introduced just before cases stop rising, so that the measures can be credited with having the effect. The latter group are becoming increasingly worried because they desperately want to get the measures put in place now so they can wrongly take the credit and they know that any delay could destroy their argument.

I think we need to cross fingers, and anything else cross-able, that this is what happens. For if this goes on much longer I think the government will start to lose its nerve.

In any case, I don't see why the rising cases should be of that much concern. Firstly they mainly seem to be among school-age groups (who would have thought it?!), and secondly for anyone else we have the vaccines. *If* the doom mongers are saying the vaccine is no longer effective or not as effective as first thought, then they should be honest about that.

It is very important that we continue to push back against the authoritarians. The Government must hold firm. Once cases start to reduce, the authoritarians will be much less vocal and the pressure will be reduced.

I see anyone who calls for so-called "plan B" measures to be an enemy of society and not someone I want to have any association with.

Can't help but agree entirely with this. I don't think this is about Covid any more, but about some people who for nefarious reasons don't want restrictions to end. I feel sorry for the collateral damage in this, which is the people who are genuinely terrified as a result of misinformation, or whose businesses have been or will be ruined by unnecessary restrictions.

As an aside, I don't think it's going to be too long before we start hearing about Christmas. That's going to be the next battle-line.

 

[Yew]

I agree that abolishing the NHS, or at least radical reform of it, ought to be considered.

The UK healthcare system should be modelled on those of countries like France & Germany, with an insurance based system where money follows the patient.

But it is heresy to say that, given that worship of the NHS is the new national religion.

Generally, when one looks at the numbers, insurance based systems come out less efficient than the NHS. Reforms and improvements, certainly; but I feel the issue the NHS has is that when budgets are cut, it can't say "No, it's impossible to provide that service for that amount of money".

 

[Bantamzen]

However a mask mandate and work from home instruction will screw the railways again. I saw someone from the NHS on the news this morning banging on about avoiding public transport if at all possible. Will they never give up? I've had my vaccines so why should I avoid public transport?

The NHS needs to remember what it is, a publicly funded government run service. If people within it have got an issue with how things are, they should be turning their blame on their bosses and government, not people getting on trains or buses. I am sick and tired of bloody whingers wanting to destroy our ways of life just so they can feel "safe". If these people are so scared, then they should stay at home, even if they are medical staff. Because frankly should I ever need it, I don't want to be treated by someone so frightened because they will likely make incorrect decisions as a result.

 

[joncombe]

The BBC publishes the front pages of various newspapers.

Newspaper headlines: Ministers consider Covid Plan B and 51 MPs report threats

Speculation over tougher Covid restrictions and the upcoming Budget feature on Sunday's front pages.

www.bbc.co.uk

Unfortunately the Observer is reporting that local authorities were canvassed about support for implementing plan B and that this is ministers paving the way to bring in restrictions.

This is bad enough but I would be astonished if any restrictions would then be lifted until the spring. Also given that masks are ineffective that further restrictions will follow.

 

[Tracked]

The BBC publishes the front pages of various newspapers.

Newspaper headlines: Ministers consider Covid Plan B and 51 MPs report threats

Speculation over tougher Covid restrictions and the upcoming Budget feature on Sunday's front pages.

www.bbc.co.uk

Unfortunately the Observer is reporting that local authorities were canvassed about support for implementing plan B and that this is ministers paving the way to bring in restrictions.

This is bad enough but I would be astonished if any restrictions would then be lifted until the spring. Also given that masks are ineffective that further restrictions will follow.

Currently self-isolating with a mild case of Covid - Symptoms so far: runny nose, a cough, slight fever, achy muscles, and loss of sense of smell - and a bit concerned seeing stuff like that. I've got a North East Rover planned out for my holiday in a couple of weeks time and don't want to cancel something else, but I get the feeling if a Plan B gets brought in we'll immediately start seeing calls for a Plan C

 

[adc82140]

The BBC publishes the front pages of various newspapers.

Newspaper headlines: Ministers consider Covid Plan B and 51 MPs report threats

Speculation over tougher Covid restrictions and the upcoming Budget feature on Sunday's front pages.

www.bbc.co.uk

Unfortunately the Observer is reporting that local authorities were canvassed about support for implementing plan B and that this is ministers paving the way to bring in restrictions.

This is bad enough but I would be astonished if any restrictions would then be lifted until the spring. Also given that masks are ineffective that further restrictions will follow.

Selective reporting from the Observer (Sunday Guardian) there. Ministers would not be "canvassing" anyone. Civil Servants doing their jobs would, as part of routine day to day work, be planning for any eventuality, alongside their local authority colleagues. Doesn't mean it's going to happen. They also regularly plan for a nuclear holocaust, and asteroid impacts.

 

[Whistler40145]

Surely the Chief Medical and Scientific Professionals are the ones to listen to

 

[island]

Generally, when one looks at the numbers, insurance based systems come out less efficient than the NHS.

The NHS is hardly the bastion of efficiency, though.

 

[NorthKent1989]

I think a fourth lockdown is very unlikely.

I hope so, but I don’t trust chairman BoJo to not do a u turn last minute.

I’m the same but for me it seems people are finally clicking that after this 3rd one enough is indeed enough and may look for jobs elsewhere (I’m at that point too but I do want to stay in care but this jabbing especially a 3rd one feels indeed a con), but irony of all have we seen the media question this? Of course not they too been cheerleading this on including the lockdowns - I wonder what the media gains out of the cheerleading?

I doubt we will see a BBC Panaroma special or an ITV Tonight programme or Sky related programme either but something will give and as I said before they may well be mouthpieces for governments but give it time the governments will find a way to dispose of them.



I hope you are right but the way the media SAGE ie Ferguson, Devi they seem to want one (oh wait was a few months ago they too had been quoted in media saying no to lockdowns but yet here we are and once more people still trust them as well as the media), like I say why they say one thing flip then flip again without the media scrutiny?

This booster jab is a bit of a con for me and most people I know won’t take it.

Good points about the media, they’re equally culpable in this never-ending fear-mongering.

I do think there will be some documentary with the opposite view will be aired but in a few years time when the media can pretend it had been totally impartial to this debacle.