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Heading into autumn - what next?

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Andyh82

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Just watching Andrew Marr, and the shadow chancellor has just said that Labour agree with Plan B and it should be brought in now

She did tie herself in knots initially though saying they want the government to get a grip on Plan A first
 
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duncanp

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Selective reporting from the Observer (Sunday Guardian) there. Ministers would not be "canvassing" anyone. Civil Servants doing their jobs would, as part of routine day to day work, be planning for any eventuality, alongside their local authority colleagues. Doesn't mean it's going to happen. They also regularly plan for a nuclear holocaust, and asteroid impacts.

I think it is important to remember that only a day or two ago the government received advice from SAGE that the NHS was unlikely to be overwhelmed this winter, by COVID cases at least, even without any additional restrictions being imposed.

Yes, the NHS will be very busy this winter, but not from COVID patients, and it is therefore difficult to justify any more restrictions being imposed. (ie. If we all wear masks on the bus, how is that going to help overstretched A&E departments, who are busy at least partly because people are struggling to get a GP appointments)

Thankfully the increase in COVID cases appears to be slowing at the moment, and it is top be hoped that this trend continues. This makes it even less likely that Plan B will be needed, for now at least.
 

philosopher

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This booster jab is a bit of a con for me and most people I know won’t take it.
Vaccines were sold as a way of ending all this social distancing / face masks stuff, so restoring restrictions after vaccines have mostly been rolled out in my view will undermine confidence in the vaccines. If restrictions return and boosters are subsequently sold as a way to avoid further restrictions people will ask, well it did not prevent restrictions returning so why should we believe you.
 

Whistler40145

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I shall be having my booster jab when available, I'm Asthmatic and Diabetic, so I prefer to protect myself
Vaccines were sold as a way of ending all this social distancing / face masks stuff, so restoring restrictions after vaccines have mostly been rolled out in my view will undermine confidence in the vaccines. If restrictions return and boosters are subsequently sold as a way to avoid further restrictions people will ask, well it did not prevent restrictions returning so why should we believe you.
 

duncanp

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Interesting to look at the percentage change in the 7 day case rates for some of the big cities in England.

The rate at which cases are rising has dropped off significantly in Birmingham, Manchester and Liverpool, and yet in London the rate at which cases are rising is flatlining.

I suppose different cities are at different stages of the pandemic, but it does suggest at least the compulsory face coverings on public transport in London don't appear to be having a signifcant effect.

Indcidentally, does anyone know why there has been such a sharp increase in cases in places such as Bristol and Cheltenham? This doesn't seem to be replicated anywhere else in England, so is there some local factor involved?
 

kez19

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I hope so, but I don’t trust chairman BoJo to not do a u turn last minute.




This booster jab is a bit of a con for me and most people I know won’t take it.

Good points about the media, they’re equally culpable in this never-ending fear-mongering.

I do think there will be some documentary with the opposite view will be aired but in a few years time when the media can pretend it had been totally impartial to this debacle.

I wasn’t wanting it when it first came out and I had COVID prior - I was trusting the science they spoke of before ie antibodies in body etc

As for the media - exactly and that’s why my trust in media in the UK has generally gone, it’s all they ever focus on, go to RT it’s a whole new world (literally - COVID maybe brief but they cover other things! - this from a person who criticised them when OFCOM gave them a slap - now I don’t think so otherwise).

As for documentaries and the media portraying itself as unbias during this will be the biggest laugh of all - they are a dog that’s been giving a bone to play with - the general public will realise they been played as fools soon enough

What happens in Plan B when your job cannot be carried out by working from home?

I’ll guess they’ll ask you to sign on to Universal Credit? (guessing here but wouldn’t be surprised)
 

Andyh82

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Still with Andrew Marr, the Chancellor says the data says that we don’t need to bring in Plan B at the moment.

The language was very careful though not dismissing the idea out of hand, just not at the moment, which suggests to me it’s gradually getting nearer.
 

joncombe

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The language was very careful though not dismissing the idea out of hand, just not at the moment, which suggests to me it’s gradually getting nearer.
Gradually? I'll be astonished if Boris doesn't cave in over the next 5 days.
 

Cdd89

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I think we should be grateful that the Conservatives haven’t been wearing masks in the chamber, as it would make it a very highly embarrassing climbdown if they did reintroduce masks, effectively admitting the opposition was right.

Almost for that reason alone, I’d expect them to hold out as long as politically* possible.

* Because there’s no actual imperative for masks.
 
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Indcidentally, does anyone know why there has been such a sharp increase in cases in places such as Bristol and Cheltenham? This doesn't seem to be replicated anywhere else in England, so is there some local factor involved?

Isn’t that where the closed testing lab was, the one giving out false negatives?
 

takno

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Indcidentally, does anyone know why there has been such a sharp increase in cases in places such as Bristol and Cheltenham? This doesn't seem to be replicated anywhere else in England, so is there some local factor involved?
Lots of tests from the southwest were going up to the lab in Wolverhampton which was testing everything negative. A combination of suddenly going to correct testing, and a bulge from people with recent incorrect tests getting redone maybe
 

philosopher

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Gradually? I'll be astonished if Boris doesn't cave in over the next 5 days.
Until a few days ago, I was expecting the government would wait until mid November to see what the impact of school half term would be. If half term successfully resulted in cases falling then the government would be able to say Plan B was not required.

Now, however given all the pressure for Plan B, I suspect only a rapid decline in cases over the next week will prevent it from being implemented.
 

Drogba11CFC

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People pushing for further restrictions should be locked up. This is just bringing back memories of all those times I was effectively held hostage by my classmates during music lessons.
 

Nicholas Lewis

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Cases are likely to plateau within the next few days and then gradually start to fall soon after.

Four days ago I made a prediction to some forum members this would happen within 8 days; we still have 4 more days to and it will take another couple of days to see if my prediction is true. If I am wrong, it may take a few more days but I don't think I will be too far out.

Those calling for more restrictions are a combination of people who genuinely think cases will continue rising to the 100k mark (Ferguson believers) but also deviously clever people who actually do realise this fact and therefore want measures to be introduced just before cases stop rising, so that the measures can be credited with having the effect. The latter group are becoming increasingly worried because they desperately want to get the measures put in place now so they can wrongly take the credit and they know that any delay could destroy their argument.
Cases number are headline grabbing but are a secondary indicator as i said in #946 the measure being monitored "to protect the NHS" is hospitalisations as to what the level they will be spooked at hasn't been revealed. What is fact is that a covid patient occupies a bed for on average 7 days compared to 5 for seasonal flu so whilst recovery rate is now pretty good even with a steady level of cases hospitalisation levels will creep up. What should have happened, and maybe it has in some trusts, is they need to be able to provide covid care which is largely oxygen support not ICU care so that they can absorb extra cases through the winter period without having a deleterious impact on the rest of services. This would be protecting the NHS.
 

NorthKent1989

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People pushing for further restrictions should be locked up. This is just bringing back memories of all those times I was effectively held hostage by my classmates during music lessons.

Im getting frustrated with these authoritarian bullies myself, they don’t care that mental health has taken a downturn rapidly these last 18 months, thankfully however I do feel for the first time since this began they are becoming a minority
 

Nicholas Lewis

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People pushing for further restrictions should be locked up. This is just bringing back memories of all those times I was effectively held hostage by my classmates during music lessons.
The government scared a lot of people last year and given the majority of us have never been exposed to a pandemic its hardly surprising that there remain many people who are concerned but the ones I know are taking their own precautions and I respect them for that as they respect me for how i wish to behave. The issue we have here is this fire is being stoked by the media along with an opposition who now want to just be negative about anything the government do. Look at the announcement on regional transport yesterday Labour say its not enough - maybe but its a dam site more than has ever been given before so its a blooming good start although i was pleased to see Andy Burnham being gracious enough. So back to Plan B Labour have just latched onto that so they are seen to being doing something.
 

yorkie

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Im getting frustrated with these authoritarian bullies myself, they don’t care that mental health has taken a downturn rapidly these last 18 months, thankfully however I do feel for the first time since this began they are becoming a minority
They are a small minority but are highly vocal, are extremely active on social media sites such as Twitter, and they tend to have contacts at publications such as the Grauniad, BBC etc and among their number they have socially inept people in lofty positions (e.g. people like Ferguson) who, although very clever in some areas, lack a wider understanding of the world, lack compassion and are about as far removed from an ordinary hard working person doing an average job as you can possibly get.

I think we should be grateful that the Conservatives haven’t been wearing masks in the chamber, as it would make it a very highly embarrassing climbdown if they did reintroduce masks, effectively admitting the opposition was right.

Almost for that reason alone, I’d expect them to hold out as long as politically* possible.

* Because there’s no actual imperative for masks.
Agreed
Vaccines were sold as a way of ending all this social distancing / face masks stuff, so restoring restrictions after vaccines have mostly been rolled out in my view will undermine confidence in the vaccines. If restrictions return and boosters are subsequently sold as a way to avoid further restrictions people will ask, well it did not prevent restrictions returning so why should we believe you.
The vast majority of the population has no need for a booster vaccine; many of us will get a booster of the natural sort (a natural infection in a vaccinated individual acts a booster, giving us additional immunity which includes features specific to the latest variant as well as immunity against other parts of the virus, not just the spike protein) but people who are vulnerable would benefit from a booster this year (it's unlikely to be required every year), especially if they can be given a different sort of jab to that which they were originally given and also especially if their gap was shorter than the now recommended 10-12 weeks.

For example a 70 year old overweight diabetic with asthma who had 2 doses of a viral vector vaccine (e.g. Oxford AZ) two weeks apart in January should definitely get an mRNA (e.g. Pfizer) booster when offered.

But a healthy 50 year old who had one of each type of vaccine 12 weeks apart is not going to benefit from a booster by any meaningful extent and the vaccine dose would be better used elsewhere.
Just watching Andrew Marr, and the shadow chancellor has just said that Labour agree with Plan B and it should be brought in now

She did tie herself in knots initially though saying they want the government to get a grip on Plan A first
I think with every passing day my hatred for the Labour party grows. I see them as traitors of the worst kind, like someone who you used to get on really well with who turned against you. Someone who should be looking out for your interests and the interests of people you care for, but are actually doing the opposite.
 

yorksrob

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Just as long as we don't end up with the US system.

Indeed. Although with so many examples from elsewhere that have better outcomes, it's hard to see why the country would choose the US system.
 

nw1

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But a healthy 50 year old who had one of each type of vaccine 12 weeks apart is not going to benefit from a booster by any meaningful extent and the vaccine dose would be better used elsewhere.
Yes, when I had the first dose of the vaccine, the literature said that as soon as you pass your 50th birthday, you have a 'very high' chance of death, whether or whether not you are fit or have any underlying health conditions. You go from Covid having little effect on you, to a high chance of death, overnight. That sounds plain alarmist.
I think with every passing day my hatred for the Labour party grows. I see them as traitors of the worst kind, like someone who you used to get on really well with who turned against you. Someone who should be looking out for your interests and the interests of people you care for, but are actually doing the opposite.
Moving away from Covid but I find the Labour Party completely self-obsessed. They only care about the Labour Party and its welfare. Just like the Conservative Party, in fact. Exactly why both should now be placed in the dustbin of history. Both have done immense damage to this country in the last five years. (That said I would still vote Labour, under duress, to keep the Conservatives out).
 
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Eyersey468

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Im getting frustrated with these authoritarian bullies myself, they don’t care that mental health has taken a downturn rapidly these last 18 months, thankfully however I do feel for the first time since this began they are becoming a minority
And me.
 

kez19

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Labour calls for Plan B in England


One question I have to ask is how do people believe in better ventilation in places? If so what are they expecting places to have it upgraded overnight?

Ventilation is another thing that pops up regardless of what governments do. Why not ask the experts on how to do these things other than suggesting keeping doors/windows open all the time.

I guess it’ll be back to the drawing board if using buses with windows open (be freezing regardless)

Just to add on these people calling for this, are we really led to believe that they are doing when they ask us (the public) to do? Think carefully everyone is it a yes or no?
 

oldman

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the literature said that as soon as you pass your 50th birthday, you have a 'very high' chance of death
I have never seen anything suggesting a step-change in risk at any particular birthday milestone. There is of course evidence of significantly higher risk in the fifties than in the forties.
 

Cdd89

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One question I have to ask is how do people believe in better ventilation in places? If so what are they expecting places to have it upgraded overnight?
The sad consequence of pushing for ventilation as essential is many smaller restaurants/shops (who can’t afford powerful HVAC/filtration systems) being forced out of business, ceding the business over to larger chains who can afford higher grade premises or to retro-fit existing places.
 

317 forever

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Definitely bring back the masks if it means places stay open and nobody has to go back on furlough. Pubs/coffee shops/cinemas and the like may lose a little trade here and there, however 99% of those I've asked say there's nothing worse than driving/walking past shut establishments during normal hours.
A few coffee shops near offices may lose a little trade but conversely, those nearer staff homes will gain extra trade. I occasionally have takeaway coffee during my lunch break while working from home.
 

kez19

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The sad consequence of pushing for ventilation as essential is many smaller restaurants/shops (who can’t afford powerful HVAC/filtration systems) being forced out of business, ceding the business over to larger chains who can afford higher grade premises or to retro-fit existing places.

Sounds like to me as if it’s another con/money making scheme - people wouldn’t have cared that much about a place being ventilated 10-20 or more years ago but now it’s sudden panic?

I wonder what will be the next thing they’ll go for with businesses or in general - the public?
 
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