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Heading into autumn - what next?

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317 forever

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I imagine that will form the majority of the content, yes. Whitty and Vallance will be present.
I don't know whether this is a good sign or a bad sign. It's just that, with all due respect to them for how they do their jobs, they are starting to come across as yesterday's news.
 
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nw1

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Sadly that means myself and many others will never vote for them again.

I don't have a problem with masks, but needlessly calling for more home working is silly and will impact upon the wider economy. Including, of course, the railways.

Given we don't appear to have a particularly dramatic increase in cases right now, and some on here are saying that in fact it's flattening, why are they calling for home working? Are they trying to spread alarm needlessly?

And as supposed socialists do they actually think it's a good idea to call for more working in isolation from colleagues, with less support from colleagues against abusive management, etc? One thing which IMX home working has produced is that managers can put more pressure on staff, because they know staff can't turn to colleagues, or union reps, for help.

For all that I would still vote for them, reluctantly, because for another reason the Tories will never get my vote.
 
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brad465

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Sadly that means myself and many others will never vote for them again.
Out of interest who is the alternative in this situation? The Tories might have libertarian views but this is not prevalent across the whole party and as the Government is very weak, they have caved into demands from the opposition and/or healthcare/scientific entities (and could well still do). The Lib Dems are the most left party (even if not officially on the left) with some opposition to measures, chiefly vaccine passports and the emergency legislation, while the only other party with opposition is Reform UK, who haven't got anywhere and are too nutty in other policy areas.

Overall I do think the media, especially newspapers, are actually the ones in charge of the country at the moment, as whatever agenda they push/sensationalise seems to be what we get. There's plenty who despise the media institutions collectively, but until there are constant mass protests about this outside their offices at the very least, nothing is going to change, and even that might not be enough if boycotts and/or genuine putting off views/clicks/purchases result.
 

nw1

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Out of interest who is the alternative in this situation? The Tories might have libertarian views
I am not so sure. The way they have restricted immigration rights due to their hardline implementation of Brexit is the very definition of authoritarianism. And the way in which they are treating existing EU immigrants is surely a perfect example of bureaucracy, statism and authoritarianism. So by no measure are the current Tories libertarian. They are certainly big-state, at least when it comes to controlling people's lives. Priti Patel, in particular, is in my view the most authoritarian minister of any party to have existed since, and including, the Thatcher government.

And the first and third Tory lockdowns (the second less so) of course implemented strong authoritarian measures (I won't mention Coffeegate again)

Perhaps there are some genuine libertarians on the Tory benches but they certainly didn't speak up over Brexit and immigration, and oppose immigration restrictions on libertarian grounds.

but this is not prevalent across the whole party and as the Government is very weak, they have caved into demands from the opposition and/or healthcare/scientific entities (and could well still do). The Lib Dems are the most left party (even if not officially on the left) with some opposition to measures, chiefly vaccine passports and the emergency legislation, while the only other party with opposition is Reform UK, who haven't got anywhere and are too nutty in other policy areas.

Agree that the Lib Dems are probably the best party at the moment. But in FPTP, one has to vote tactically.
 
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317 forever

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Doctors aren't getting a good press at the moment, I'm hearing a *lot* of moaning from people who are constantly unable to see the GP, or feel they're getting fobbed off if they are lucky enough to get a 1-minute telephone consultation.

People are growing tired of the "save the NHS" message now. They've made massive changes to their lives over the last 21 months, yet apparently we need to do so again for the benefit of the NHS. There comes a point where enough's enough.
They also run the risk of suggesting that they think we are hindering the NHS from working efficiently, rather than that the NHS is here to help us.
 

philosopher

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I don't have a problem with masks, but needlessly calling for more home working is silly and will impact upon the wider economy. Including, of course, the railways.

Given we don't appear to have a particularly dramatic increase in cases right now, and some on here are saying that in fact it's flattening, why are they calling for home working? Are they trying to spread alarm needlessly?
If offices were hotbeds of infection, advising staff to work from home might make some sense. However all the evidence is that much of this wave is caused by schoolkids picking it up at school. Parents are subsequently picking it from their children, hence the rising case numbers in adults aged between 35 and 50. If workplaces were the issue, you would expect case numbers to be rising in all working age adults. However infection rates in adults between 18 are 35 are still generally low.

If SAGE or the government are really that concerned about the NHS being overwhelmed it would be better to advise grandparents to avoid seeing their grandkids, at least until they have had a booster vaccine or the current wave in schools has subsided.
 

nw1

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They also run the risk of suggesting that they think we are hindering the NHS from working efficiently, rather than that the NHS is here to help us.

The attitude of a lot of NHS receptionists can be a bit frosty, I will say that. Many of them need to be a bit more welcoming.
 
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greyman42

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The sad consequence of pushing for ventilation as essential is many smaller restaurants/shops (who can’t afford powerful HVAC/filtration systems) being forced out of business, ceding the business over to larger chains who can afford higher grade premises or to retro-fit existing places.
I get sick of hearing about ventilation. There is no requirement for restaurants/pubs/shops to have ventilation. If ventilation means restaurants and pubs having their doors and windows open in the winter, then who would want to sit in these places freezing?
 

kez19

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I get sick of hearing about ventilation. There is no requirement for restaurants/pubs/shops to have ventilation. If ventilation means restaurants and pubs having their doors and windows open in the winter, then who would want to sit in these places freezing?

It was the same last year, I boarded a bus - was cold, closed window but got told off to open it - now there is signage everywhere on a bus (a bit unrelated but proves a point that common sense goes out of the window)

I’m assuming they trying to tell businesses not to use their heating? It’s the only thing that springs to mind.
 

NorthKent1989

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Sadly that means myself and many others will never vote for them again.

Labour are now utterly unelectable, they’ve shown their true colours aim recent years and Covid has exposed how they just want to be seen to be doing something rather than opposing the harmful restrictions.

The attitude of a lot of NHS receptionists can be a bit frosty, I will say that. Many of them need to be a bit more welcoming.

I had to go to my doctors the other day to get an asthma review, I am mask exempt due to my asthma, and the receptionists attitude was appalling, she demanded I wear a mask even though I specifically stated that covering it mouth triggers my asthma, she was rude and condescending and I told her so, they were quite prepared to see me walk away from the surgery without my much needed asthma prescription, which I told them if I didn’t get my prescription then I would be at more risk, I got my prescription in the end but I was fuming.
 
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bramling

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I had to go to my doctors the other day to get an asthma review, I am mask exempt due to my asthma, and the receptionists attitude was appalling, she demanded I wear a mask even though I specifically stated that covering it mouth triggers my asthma, she was rude and condescending and I told her so, they were quite prepared to see me walk away from the surgery without my much needed asthma prescription, which I told them if I didn’t get my prescription then I would be at more risk, I got my prescription in the end but I was fuming.

Just remember, "Thank you NHS, you're amazing".

A bit like a relative of mine who had constant chest pains for several days. Couldn't get through to the surgery for two days, on the third got told could only have a telephone consultation if serious (how ever that might be defined), then got a bollocking from the doctor during the 1-minute chat for it apparently not being serious enough to merit a consultation, and was told to "eat more fruit". Still got the pains, and has essentially given up and hoping for the best. Thanks NHS.

One does wonder if at some point someone might be able to mount a successful lawsuit for negligence. I wonder if it might happen over, for example, someone who caught Covid in an NHS setting, or someone who died after an issue wasn't diagnosed early enough. There must be plenty of instances.
 

Class 33

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Just watched ITV News West Country and the first report on there mentioned "As Covid cases continue to rise"(*** sigh ***), West of England Mayor Dan Norris is advising us we must wear face masks in shops and on public transport and will be writing to THOUSAND'S of businesses all over the West Country advising them to put posters in their premises saying "Face masks must be worn". Give it a rest with that nonsense Norris! Whether there's "Face masks must be worn" posters in shops and public transport or not, I will certainly continue to NOT wear one! I expect many others will do the same! We put up with wearing face masks for over a year. When the laws were scrapped on 19th July it just couldn't come soon enough. We do not want that nonsense back again!

I also caught a bit of the main ITV News and they were reporting that some(I didn't catch all of it) including Professor Adam Finn are urging the government to go ahead with "Plan B" and reimpose restrictions immediately BEFORE a national lockdown!!!! Cretins!!!
 
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seagull

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The appalling and shoddy state of the NHS deserves its own thread really: suffice to say that there seems to be a complete lack of accountability, staff (some) that seem to get away with the utmost discourtesy and rudeness without consequence, nurses who often are employed nowadays not because of people or caring skills but simply because they have the right piece of paper, and a speed of service that could be outclassed by any sober tortoise.
My wife has been waiting six months for a heart exam following a two-day A&E admisssion in April with chest pains, minor clotting and a heart murmur. Still no appointment letter or call. Fantastic.

A pity as there are of course many excellent and hard working staff in the NHS, but the overall picture is not good, and it's certainly not all down to "lack of money" - but as someone else said, how it's used.
 

duncanp

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I had to go to my doctors the other day to get an asthma review, I am mask exempt due to my asthma, and the receptionists attitude was appalling, she demanded I wear a mask even though I specifically stated that covering it mouth triggers my asthma, she was rude and condescending and I told her so, they were quite prepared to see me walk away from the surgery without my much needed asthma prescription, which I told them if I didn’t get my prescription then I would be at more risk, I got my prescription in the end but I was fuming.

I had to go to my GP surgery last week and despite all the NO MASK. NO ENTRY signs it was the receptionists who were the ones not wearing masks.
 

Nicholas Lewis

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Just watched ITV News West Country and the first report on there mentioned "As Covid cases continue to rise"(*** sigh ***), West of England Mayor Dan Norris is advising us we must wear face masks in shops and on public transport and will be writing to THOUSAND'S of businesses all over the West Country advising them to put posters in their premises saying "Face masks must be worn". Give it a rest with that nonsense Norris! Whether there's "Face masks must be worn" posters in shops and public transport or not, I will certainly continue to NOT wear one! I expect many others will do the same! We put up with wearing face masks for over a year. When the laws were scrapped on 19th July it just couldn't come soon enough. We do not want that nonsense back again!
SW Region 5940 cases last Sunday 4832 today. Case rate is 3700/100k in 10-14 year olds (for comparison its 466/100k for 30-34 year olds) and has been running at this high level for several weeks so natural immunity building fast. My view is cases will drop back over next 7-10 days as a result of half term and what needs watching is whether hospitalisation rates respond in sympathy.
 

brad465

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The Telegraph front page tomorrow headlines with a claim from scientists that infections will slump in winter, even without Plan B being implemented:

1635110069618.png
 

Jimini

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The Telegraph front page tomorrow headlines with a claim from scientists that infections will slump in winter, even without Plan B being implemented:

View attachment 104556


Covid cases will plummet in November even without Plan B restrictions, modelling seen by the Government suggests.
Ministers are thought to be holding back from introducing restrictions such as compulsory face masks, working from home and vaccine passports, after seeing projections from several groups which show infections declining rapidly within weeks.
One model, from the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, suggests that cases will soon peak before falling steeply in the winter months, even without Plan B.

The Telegraph understands that other unpublished models seen by the Government have also shown similar imminent drops, with experts indicating that cases could fall to around 5,000 cases a day before Christmas.
John Edmunds, Professor in the Centre for the Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases at the school, a member of Sage and the sub-group SPI-M, said: “When we were doing the work about two weeks ago, the Health Secretary had made it very clear that the government was not planning to introduce Plan B in the near future.


“Our model was projecting that cases would start to decline some time in the autumn.
“However, the model also suggests that cases may start to climb again in the spring, due to a combination of waning immunity and increased contacts.”
John Edmunds said cases looked set to decline during autumn, but could rise again in the spring

John Edmunds said cases looked set to decline during autumn, but could rise again in the spring CREDIT: Reuters/Simon Dawson

‘Children’s epidemic’​

Much of the current wave is being driven by high case rates in children.
Scientific sources close to the Government expect the “children’s epidemic” to run out of steam soon as immunity in youngsters increases, both through infection and vaccination.
The October half term, which for many schools begins on Monday, is also expected to help bring down case numbers.
Scientists believe that the virus is close to reaching “endemic equilibrium” and recent oscillations in case rates will soon settle down.
On Sunday, the Chancellor ruled out the imminent implementation of additional restrictions as laid out in the Government's Autumn and Winter Plan.
“We're monitoring everything, but at the moment the data does not suggest that we should be immediately moving to Plan B, but of course we will keep an eye on that and the plans are ready,” Rishi Sunak told BBC One's The Andrew Marr Show.
Maggie Throup, the Vaccines Minister, also said Plan A is "working" and said the situation was "where we need to be".

Pressure to implement Plan B​

The Government is coming under increasing pressure to implement Plan B after daily cases rose beyond 50,000 last week, while hospital admissions increased to more than 1,000.

On Sunday, Labour said it now backed the immediate reintroduction of restrictions, despite Sir Keir Starmer saying on Thursday that the debate over which plan to follow was the "wrong focus".
Professor Peter Openshaw, a member of the New and Emerging Respiratory Virus Threats Advisory Group, said case numbers and death rates are currently "unacceptable". He advised people to "take matters into your own hands" and told BBC Breakfast on Saturday: "Don't wait necessarily for Government policy."
However, on Sunday infections dropped below 40,000 for the first time in 12 days, to 39,962. Deaths fell to 72.
Epidemiologists are projecting a smaller spring wave and so have modelled the impact of Plan B restrictions in April.
But they found even if face coverings, work from home and vaccine certificates are introduced in the spring, it would only serve to delay deaths until next autumn.
Prof Edmunds said Plan B could still be useful next year "as it buys you time" to increase vaccination uptake, or introduce new drugs. However, he warned the effect would not prevent a later outbreak.
“If you implement non-pharmacutical interventions temporarily and then lift them, then their main effect is to delay any outbreak,” he said. “You can see this most clearly in the scenario when we implement all of the measures.”

‘The Government is doing the right thing’​

Experts said if the models were correct, then it would do little good to bring in restrictions at this stage, and would be better for long-term immunity to allow the virus to spread.
Paul Hunter, Professor in Medicine, at the University of East Anglia, said: “There are times when delaying is really valuable, but there comes a point when restrictions have no value because you’ve got as much protection as you’re going to get, so you end up putting it off to a point where you lose immunity.
“What the modelling suggests is that even without Plan B, we should expect to see case numbers falling quite rapidly in the next few weeks. If correct, Christmas should see some of the lowest number of cases of Covid since late May/early June even without further restrictions.
“If it's right, then this issue about whether we should be locking down is immaterial. We shouldn’t and the Government is doing the right thing.
“Ultimately Covid will become another cause for the common cold. Once you’ve been vaccinated and had the infection a couple of times, it will almost always be asymptomatic or have symptoms like a cold.”
Downing Street has insisted there is still spare capacity in the NHS and restrictions will only be activated if it comes under “significant pressure”.
Mr Sunak also said a return of the furlough scheme was "not on the cards", indicating that there would not be a lockdown which required the economy to shut down.
The Chancellor added that the vaccine rollout was the "best line of defence against having to move to put in place any restrictions".
Rishi Sunak believes the vaccine rollout is the best way of defeating Covid

Rishi Sunak believes the vaccine rollout is the best way of defeating Covid CREDIT: Jeff Overs/BBC
Prof Graham Medley, chairman of the Scientific Pandemic Influenza Group on Modelling and Professor of Infectious Disease Modelling at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, said: “We still don’t know how the booster programme will actually work out, but if it gets enough vaccines into enough people fast enough, then it’s a very strong barrier.”
However, scientists warned that none of the models account for the new Delta variant - AY4.2 - which may be 10 per cent more infectious, and could stop cases declining as rapidly as expected.

Full article available online now.
 

Nicholas Lewis

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The Telegraph front page tomorrow headlines with a claim from scientists that infections will slump in winter, even without Plan B being implemented:

View attachment 104556
Interesting this particularly paragraph mirrors much of what has been postulated on this forum

Much of the current wave is being driven by high case rates in children.

Scientific sources close to the Government expect the “children’s epidemic” to run out of steam soon as immunity in youngsters increases, both through infection and vaccination.

The October half term, which for many schools begins on Monday, is also expected to help bring down case numbers.

Scientists believe that the virus is close to reaching “endemic equilibrium” and recent oscillations in case rates will soon settle down.
This modelling paper was in the SAGE release last Friday along with other modellers more pessimistic forecasts interesting how the media focussed on the worst case ones and not report a balanced view.
 

Jimini

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Good to see at least some media outlets reporting that endemic equilibrium is what we are aiming for and that we may not be that far off.

100%

(Edit: member for 15 years and 16 days and I've just hit 400 posts. Sounds like a Sinead O'Connor song :lol: )
 

NorthKent1989

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Although a part of me fears the return of restrictions and vaccine passports, I do now feel that any such notions are going to be intolerable and ultimately binned
 

WestRiding

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I won't be having the booster if they bring restrictions back, whats the bleeding point. The vaccine was supposed to rid us of this rubbish.
 

35B

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Sounds like to me as if it’s another con/money making scheme - people wouldn’t have cared that much about a place being ventilated 10-20 or more years ago but now it’s sudden panic?

I wonder what will be the next thing they’ll go for with businesses or in general - the public?
My daughter’s classroom was fitted with a CO2 monitor recently. A “green” reading is <2000; hers was 4000.

I have plenty of times suffered airless rooms, where I’ve felt tired and inattentive regardless of my underlying state. That they also act as traps for airborne disease (and not just Covid) shows how poor some architecture is, and the costs that it imposes.

I will be asking the school what their plans are in the longer term, as rooms like that are not fit for purpose.
 

Jamesrob637

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A few coffee shops near offices may lose a little trade but conversely, those nearer staff homes will gain extra trade. I occasionally have takeaway coffee during my lunch break while working from home.

I supported local businesses even when I worked from home pre-COVID.
 

Kite159

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Just remember, "Thank you NHS, you're amazing".

A bit like a relative of mine who had constant chest pains for several days. Couldn't get through to the surgery for two days, on the third got told could only have a telephone consultation if serious (how ever that might be defined), then got a bollocking from the doctor during the 1-minute chat for it apparently not being serious enough to merit a consultation, and was told to "eat more fruit". Still got the pains, and has essentially given up and hoping for the best. Thanks NHS.

One does wonder if at some point someone might be able to mount a successful lawsuit for negligence. I wonder if it might happen over, for example, someone who caught Covid in an NHS setting, or someone who died after an issue wasn't diagnosed early enough. There must be plenty of instances.

One of the local GPs got caught out marking people down as "no answer" when they tried phoning. Only because they let the phone ring for less than 5 seconds before hanging up and moving onto the next caller.

And then they wonder why the local A&E is busy
 

yorkie

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I will be asking the school what their plans are in the longer term, as rooms like that are not fit for purpose.
What do you suggest?

I won't be having the booster if they bring restrictions back, whats the bleeding point. The vaccine was supposed to rid us of this rubbish.
The vaccines will get us out of this; try to ignore the vaccine effectiveness deniers who want to impose restrictions.
 

Busaholic

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I had to go to my GP surgery last week and despite all the NO MASK. NO ENTRY signs it was the receptionists who were the ones not wearing masks.
Had exactly the same experience, twice running now, three unmasked receptionists sitting quite close to one another. I appeared unmasked on my last visit, simply because the urine sample I was supposed to be accompanying had spilled in my bag and gone all over my clean mask! So two apologies before I'd even signed in!
 

Ediswan

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My daughter’s classroom was fitted with a CO2 monitor recently. A “green” reading is <2000; hers was 4000.
<2000 what ? CO2 is usually measured in parts-per-million (ppm). Most sources say that levels should be kept below 1000 ppm. 4000 ppm would not be good.
 
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